There have been a couple of new European and Scottish polls over the last couple of days. Europe first, this morning’s YouGov/Sun poll had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place, the Conservatives remain in third, the Greens and Lib Dems equal for fourth place.

The second was by ComRes who had toplines of CON 22%, LAB 24%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 34%, GRN 5%. Much better figures for UKIP there, with Labour and the Conservatives not far apart for second and the Lib Dems holding fourth place. A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.

Turning to the Scottish polls, there have been two new referendum polls this week, or at least, two newly published Scottish polls. The TNS poll was actually condcted in the last week of April and first couple of days of May. Their topline figures are YES 30%(+1), NO 42%(+1) – so no change in the lead. Tabs here. The second poll is by Survation and much more recent, their topline figures are YES 37%(-1), NO 47%(+1). A minor increase in the NO lead since their last poll, but really it’s a continuation of a no change trend in Survation’s Scottish polling: their last five referendum polls have all had figures within 1 point of YES 38%, NO 47%. Details here.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%


289 Responses to “Latest European and Scottish polls”

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  1. This from 7-9 April

    Lab 42
    Con 34
    UKIP 11
    Lib Dem 9
    Green 3

  2. Lab +2
    Con -3
    LD +1
    UKIP -1
    Gr -1

    London Euros:
    Lab 37 (+4)
    Con 23 (-2)
    LD 9 (-2)+1
    UKIP 21 (-3)

    Locals:
    Lab 40 (NC)
    Con 33 (-1)
    LD 11 (-1)

    Labour ‘bucking the national trend’ according to the Standard:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-is-still-backing-labour-despite-tories-national-upsurge-9384056.html

  3. Standard YouGov for London looks like the best polling news Labour have had for weeks. Well ahead and pulling away from Cons less than a week before the Euro and London Borough elections. I think EM would sleep more soundly with these polls from home ground – and next week’s main electoral arena. Perhaps they will get a new UKPR thread tomorrow ?

  4. Welsh Borderer

    Why is London “next week’s main electoral arena”?

  5. “Scotland faces risk of capital flight, warns Deutsche”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10826058/Scotland-faces-risk-of-capital-flight-warns-Deutsche.html

    ‘The German lender has detailed a possible scenario comparable to that seen in some eastern European countries following the collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence in the early 1990, whereby money would flow unchecked out of the Scotland while Edinburgh frantically tried to persuade Westminister to allow it to keep sterling.

    “A new Scottish currency could also trigger capital flight by worried savers ahead of any decisions being made,” wrote George Buckley, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist.

    “Moreover, capital controls may not be appropriate for such a small open economy as highly dependent on international finance as Scotland.”’

    ‘The creation of an independent Scottish currency could be ruinous for the majority of people north of the border, according to the report.

    “It would probably mean higher borrowing costs in Scotland’s own new currency than is currently the case in sterling,” wrote Mr Buckley.’

  6. “‘The creation of an independent Scottish currency could be ruinous for the majority of people north of the border, according to the report.”

    Not if they gan fer the all noo Scottich-Twae-Poondie and the associated

    “Twice as much money as they Inglish noooo”

    mantra.

  7. Tories national upsurge? Have i missed something?

  8. “What I find to be an outrage is that a single foreign newspaper/media proprietor still has such an apparent capacity to shape the will of the majority of the English people”

    Don’t worry. He doesn’t. (And never did.)

  9. Carfrew

    Ah, but you missed the Telegraph’s “Alex Salmond’s Yes campaign”.

    It has been widely reported here that Alicsammin is the only person in Scotland who supports independence.

    The personalisation of politics is a well worn path by partisan news sources.

    I’m sure there’s a good reason why you are posting a link to a story that’s almost a week old.

  10. @Oldnat

    ok, that was a pretty random set of responses from you there, none of which had much to do with what I posted.

    I know it might be a challenging concept for you but the reason I didn’t post it sooner was because I waited for a Saltire thread…

  11. Carfrew

    You posted excerpts from, and a link to, a Telegraph story.

    Even the BBC had a more balanced report.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27398298

    “It is in the economic interests of the continuing UK as well as Scotland to select a monetary arrangement which as far as possible minimises disruption to the financial markets and cross-border trade,” Mr Buckley wrote.

  12. @John B

    No, not friendly. Two lots of people arguing over who’s pretend deity (few of them are really devout anyway) is real or not, and arguing over battles 300+ years ago.

    Living in the past or the pretend.

  13. Statgeek

    But whether the rest of us thinks it’s mind-bogglingly daft or not, there are people whose “identity politics” is rooted in the 17th century.

    That set of values is inculcated in successive generations (though thankfully, with much less effect (see my post on Kilwinning) than formerly, through ceremonials like the Orange Walks.

    In the same process, monarchists take their children along to wave Union Jacks whenever Royalty appears, and Socialists (pretendy or otherwise) take their kids on MayDay marches.

    These rituals to pass on beliefs are very common

  14. the tories are constantly being overhyped, a) because the media loves a horse race b) miliband is weak and an easy target and c) because the generals are fighting the last war and think we’re in a 1992 re-run, where a naturally tory country takes a look at labour and decides, “no thanks”.

    in the real world, the tories remain firmly under 35%, labour remains at around 35% and the electoral map is skewed in their favour.

  15. Old Nat

    Do you really not know why a simultaneous Euro and local Election in the largest metropolis in the UK which will also attract a much higher turnout than anywhere else is important ? Even in Wales we are not too insular and inward-looking to recognise that.

  16. JAMES PEEL

    Yes but we have 11 months until the election. The economy is recovering quite strongly now, wages have just overtaken inflation and most importantly of all in 2015 the electorate will actually face deciding who to elect. Will they vote for a party who they perceived as at least partially responsible for the biggest downturn for 100 years and who at present (at least in some peoples eyes) do not appear to have a clear economic strategy or will they vote for a party who has brought about economic recovery. We shall see.

  17. @Pressman

    We are talking about the possibility of Cameron winning around 10 million votes – and becoming PM on a losing share with the Left split because of people like Clegg, Miliband etc.. who neither reflect the Blair heritage, the will of the majority of English people or even the grassroots of their own party. It will, if it comes to pass – and I’m pretty sure it did in 2010 – be an outrage.

  18. Good Morning All.
    Hope London is as good as Bournemouth, sunshine-wise, as I am up to meet my 1983 A Level students, whose parents largely voted for Harvey Proctor in the Basildon seat, in Mrs Thatcher’s hey days.

    TOH>
    Good Morning. On Radio Five, Wednesday: a perceptive journalist pointed out that GO is worried that voters may feel it is ‘safe’ to ‘relax’ and vote for a high spending Labour Party, That is why he keeps saying the job is not yet ‘done’.

    The 1959 ‘You never had it so good’ speech was actually a warning my Macmillan that spending could not go on; very well politically judged.

  19. Chrislane1945

    Good morning to you. Yes but it is clear the job is not done by a mile. The deficit has still to be cleared and we still face a mountain of debt. I am sure it will be pointed out quite clearly that a return to tax and spend would be a disaster. I will be truly amazed if the electorate think as you suggest come election 2015.

  20. @statgeek

    You’ll even find people who evince a touching faith in x-breaks.

  21. @ Ozwald

    I doubt you will get any argument from TOH- he would ideally want a party that made that graph a straight line!

    @ TOH

    “tax and spend” only with very tenuous links could be regarded as the cause of the recession. The cause was an economy based on inflated asset prices.

    The tenuous links might be that we were spending too much in the boom years but providing tax was balancing the spending it isn’t an issue unless that tax knocks on to the rest of the economy. As long as tax and spend matches the only argument is whether it is good or bad for the economy and that is where I suspect we would disagree.

  22. @TOH

    Are the Tories going to do better than in 2010? Will the LibDems do as well or Labour as badly? Will UKIP not damage the Tories at least to some extent? Then add in the built-in electoral bias.

    The Tories will do well to stay where they are, never mind improving on 2010.

  23. @ TOH

    The UK is not “drowning in debt”; £375Bn of UK ‘debt’ (about 1/3rd) belongs to our own government i.e. it is QE.

    With the continuing strength of the GBP causing problems for exporters plus house prices & immigration also rising there are at least 3 reasons why we should be doing more QE. UK ‘debt’ could be close to zero if the Chancellor & the BoE monetary policy committee had the ‘bottle’ to do it.

  24. Six million missing from electoral register according to latest estimates.

  25. That London polling is very interesting. I suspect a lot of questions we have will be semi answered on Friday:

    Locals:
    Lab 40 (+6 on 2010)
    Con 33 (NC on 2010)
    LD 11 (-11 on 2010)

    Can’t find the UKIP London share of vote either in 2010 or now- usually turn to Rogermexico for that!

    It does seem though that from the above UKIP isn’t likely to damage the Tories in London nearly as much as Labour will damage the Lib Dems. On UNS you’d expect Tories to take Kingston and Sutton, although no-one seems to think the LD’s will lose Sutton and Kingston seems to be close so that’s UNS for you.

    All round this is going to be the most interesting set of election results we have had since 2010.

  26. @ Amber

    I totally agree with you about more QE but this time issued into the ‘real’ economy, not into the banks to invest in emerging economies.

    I would prefer it to be used to create a job’s guarantee for all who want a job, not just the 16 to 24y olds. However, the need for investment in powering down energy consumption and a massive push to create a zero-carbon Britain is overwhelming… and the UK should be a net exporter of renewable energy.

    ‘UK ‘debt’ could be close to zero if the Chancellor & the BoE monetary policy committee had the ‘bottle’ to do it.’

    Absolutely!

  27. LATEST HOLYROOD POLL:

    SNP 44%

    LAB 32%

    CON 15%

    LD 5%

    AP 4%

  28. I must put my apols in for this evening and give pollz&trollz a miss – new series of Wallander on BBC4 9pm !

  29. CARFREW YOUR COMMENT IS AWAITING MODERATION.

    @oldnat

    Unfortunately, oldnat, a fair amount of cold water has been poured on sharing the currency, and much as you may wish it to be otherwise, currency union is not a given, so depending on that to wish the problem away doesn’t really do it. There wouldn’t have been much of a story otherwise. Given that you chose to respond, it’s a bit disappointing that you haven’t actually had anything material to say on the dangers of capital flight. I got loads more if you want something a bit easier in future…

  30. lol, automod leaves its mark…

  31. “However, the need for investment in powering down energy consumption and a massive push to create a zero-carbon Britain is overwhelming…”

    And Thorium!!!!….

  32. @Billy Bob

    Without 1000+ polls in regions, what else can we go on? :-p

  33. AMBER STAR

    It’s a matter of opinion, we clearly disagree.

    RogerH

    Ditto my comment to Amber.

    Ozwald

    Your comment is not valid either economically or in respect of my politics. I am not a Tory, I am a libertarian who believes in small government therefore I do not want a Labour government.

  34. >>>>.<<<<
    {{{{[[[[]]]]]]]]]
    V

    This is Daisie's new smilie.

    I've told her its jolly good.

  35. SYZYGY

    You obviously believe in man made global warming and think we can resolve the problem by adopting expensive alternative energy policies. I have an open mind on the whole question of global warming but feel strongly that man’s puny efforts will have very little effect unless we stop cutting down rain forests and frankly that is as likely to happen as China will stop burning coal.

  36. SHEVII

    As a firm believer in the overall benefits of a low tax economy i am sure we would disagree.

  37. @carfrew

    It looks like the section of your post ‘re capital flight from Scotland in the event of independence which dealt with the polling implications got omitted.

    Presumably it was something along the lines of another cataclysmic forecast from the establishment which to date seem only to have strengthened and increased the Yes vote. Or something like that.

  38. @Raf

    “Tories national upsurge? Have i missed something?”

    Well, according to today’s Express, their political correspondent, Macer Hall (his predecessor, Patrick O’Flynn has decamped to UKIP!) reckons the 2015 election is already in the bag for the Tories. The two polls that had them narrowly in the lead earlier in the week have clinched it, apparently, plummeting the Labour election strategy team into paroxysms of fear and self loathing and sending Tory spirits soaring sky high. He claims that Tory strategists are even cheering on UKIP in the Euros so that Labour come a humiliating second. Forget them coming third, it’s all about Labour. “If they can’t win the….”. We all know the line and it’s probably already being written in readiness.

    Now someone on her was talking about complacency the other day…….:-)

  39. THE OTHER HOWARD

    You are correct that I accept the view of the majority of the scientific community that Climate change is being impacted by man-made greenhouse gases .. but TBH I think there are a lot of other reasons for developing sustainable energy sources.

    IMO the extractive industries have had unduly negative impacts on global societies in terms of democracy, wars, religious fundamentalism, innumerable atrocities etc which are quite apart from the environmental destruction, pollution and dispossession of poor people from their high value lands.

    It also offends my sense of good housewife-ness, that we should be unnecessarily wasting finite resources when renewable resources are available.

    I think there are also questions to be asked as to why, in spite of the UK having been independently audited as having the potential to export renewable energy (because we are so well sited), all governments of the last 30y have failed to facilitate the development of the industry. Instead we are being asked to accept untried Fracking technology and a huge commitment to Nuclear funded by the Chinese. In keeping with traditional advice, I think we should follow the ‘money’. Equally, the same should be applied to the Climate Deniers’ funding. I do not think it would be surprising to discover a coincidence of vested interests.

    I do not actually think that my view is irreconcilable with your own as a libertarian. Microgeneration of electricity (even going off grid) and not being in thrall to the Big Six energy companies, which are effectively monopolies, is totally consistent with a small state world view.

  40. There is something quite gloriously amusing about the shrill right-wing press cheerleading so overtly for the Tories, in defiance of any logic or evidence in the polls of a decisive shift in their favour.

    Labour VI seems to have dropped 3ish points on average in a shift to the Greens, which one assumes will dissipate after the European elections.

    The Tories however, have not picked up any noticable increase in their own VI in response to this.

  41. “(his predecessor, Patrick O’Flynn has decamped to UKIP!)”

    Not the Patrick Flynn off-stage here?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aCCePeTjfE

  42. THE OTHER HOWARD

    I forgot to say that there was an article in the Telegraph a few weeks ago, stating that solar was now cheaper in many Asian countries.. and I know that the reluctance to invest in CCS is because the energy companies know that it will become unviable as renewable prices fall.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10755598/Global-solar-dominance-in-sight-as-science-trumps-fossil-fuels.html

  43. Oswald,
    Good news about Wallander.All that Nordic gloom and drinking what must be
    Horribly stewed coffee out of thermos flasks.Great stuff,as is Montalbano always peering in the fridge to see what his housekeeper has left him for supper.Who cares about the plot,it usually doesn’t make sense anyway.

  44. @Crossbat

    Not being troubled by a drop in the average Labour lead from 10 points to 1 point, because you can console yourself by mocking an idiot working for a paper of idiots, is the very definition of complacency.

  45. THE OTHER HOWARD – Sorry to bang on about this but wages are only 0.1% greater than inflation if 1) you look at the lower level of inflation – CPI which is 1.6% (and not RPI which is 2.5% and 2) include bonuses. Without bonuses it is 1.3%,

    The BBC also stated this week – ‘The figures do not include wages for 4.5 million self-employed workers, who represent a growing proportion of the working population.’

    Wages for self employed people have dropped substantially since 2010.

    In addition whilst total GDP is up strongly GDP per capita is not where it is stagnant. This is due to the quickly rising population.

    Much of the growth will not be felt which should benefit labour. However the media are going all guns blazing on growth ignoring the naunces. This should fuel a feelgood factor benefitting the tories and which could lead into genuine improvements.

  46. CROSSBAT11 – That express cheer leading is quite common. Of course the message is reaching less people. The Express is now below 500k readers and will be at about 450k by next May as they have had years of 10% year on year declines.

    Richard Desmond might even sell it after selling Channel 5 this month. I doubt he will get much though so he will probably hang onto it. It’s more likely he will sell The Star as cross marketing potential with Channel 5 has gone, though their is the link with his magazines like OK.

  47. Hi Ann-in-Wales
    Tiz good to have Wallander back. Great escapism and fills in the time nicely while I wait for news about the Sunday morning poll/s. As you say, the plot doesn’t matter!

    Pollz-wize I have just started collecting YG unweighted figures, just out of curiosity, [and ignoring the weighted stats]. So far they look very interesting. Maybe the lead/lag doesn’t matter but I expect they will show a trend of some sort. We shall see.

  48. Idiot is as idiot does.

    My12 year old taught me that Idiot derives from Greek meaning not interested in politics.

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