There have been a couple of new European and Scottish polls over the last couple of days. Europe first, this morning’s YouGov/Sun poll had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place, the Conservatives remain in third, the Greens and Lib Dems equal for fourth place.

The second was by ComRes who had toplines of CON 22%, LAB 24%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 34%, GRN 5%. Much better figures for UKIP there, with Labour and the Conservatives not far apart for second and the Lib Dems holding fourth place. A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.

Turning to the Scottish polls, there have been two new referendum polls this week, or at least, two newly published Scottish polls. The TNS poll was actually condcted in the last week of April and first couple of days of May. Their topline figures are YES 30%(+1), NO 42%(+1) – so no change in the lead. Tabs here. The second poll is by Survation and much more recent, their topline figures are YES 37%(-1), NO 47%(+1). A minor increase in the NO lead since their last poll, but really it’s a continuation of a no change trend in Survation’s Scottish polling: their last five referendum polls have all had figures within 1 point of YES 38%, NO 47%. Details here.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%


289 Responses to “Latest European and Scottish polls”

1 2 3 4 5 6
  1. Good article by James Landale:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27421754

    I find it hard to disagree.

  2. @Howard: “If the outcome GE 2015 was Con 280, Lab 300, LD 40, I could easily see a new Con-Lib coalition and Clegg remaining DPM.”

    I certainly couldn’t. I doubt such a coalition would last a month. I think another coalition with the Tories would split what remains of the LibDems. It’s also difficult to see what Cameron could offer the LibDems that wouldn’t risk splitting his own party.

  3. RogerH
    I suppose I agree but well worth the contemplation, I think.

    How about Con 300 Lab 280 and LD 40 then?

  4. @ RogerH

    “@Howard: “If the outcome GE 2015 was Con 280, Lab 300, LD 40, I could easily see a new Con-Lib coalition and Clegg remaining DPM.”
    I certainly couldn’t. I doubt such a coalition would last a month. I think another coalition with the Tories would split what remains of the LibDems. It’s also difficult to see what Cameron could offer the LibDems that wouldn’t risk splitting his own party.”

    I agree. Not sure why Howard thinks a coalition with the Cons would be more likely with those numbers.

    I would just repeat what I said earlier in the thread that while its totally understandable (and even politically opportune) that people will be mighty cynical about Clegg I am not convinced even he would have that much of a death wish for his party. And thats even if he could bounce the rest of the LDs into it as he was able to in 2010 which I again very much doubt.

  5. @ Anthony

    Amber – the bit saying “printed and published by X on behalf of Y at address Z”. Needs to be on all election literature.
    —————-
    Thank you, much appreciated.

    So I guess Mr Nameless should now be considering whether his electronic poster constitutes election literature or whether it’s an artistic interpretation which is ‘spoofing’ election literature. :-)

  6. “Good article by James Landale:”

    I find this a bit surprising:

    ‘The European elections next week will be tough for the Tories. However much the result has been priced in to the political market, the party is still expected to take a hit with some polls suggesting it might come third.’

    Some polls? Out of the 37 EU polls held since January 2013 they’ve been in third place in 30 of them. It’s over a month since they were ahead of UKIP.

  7. “How about Con 300 Lab 280 and LD 40 then?”

    Three months?

  8. Rosie and Daisie have surpassed themselves with this piece of surrealism:

    mr nameless
    “Their LGBT wing’s treasurer is threatening me with a lawsuit, you see.”
    Why not change your name?

    Brilliant in so many ways!

  9. Statgeek @ John B

    Re the Orange Lodge

    Those who know of Kilwinning will have heard its reputation as a centre of religious bigotry [1].

    While researching, primary school placements, a few years back, I noted a remarkable concentration of pupils attending the RC Primary there in the immediate locality of the school.

    Was this evidence of voluntary housing segregation in the community? A quick check of Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics confirmed that there was no such thing. A few enquiries resulted in the reality emerging. Most parents just sent their kids to the nearest Primary that was safe to walk to [2].

    Kilwinning did have significant problems in the past [3] but like most places has moved on.

    However, the Orange Lodge/Rangers/Triumphant Protestantism element from Northern Irish immigration still exists, and it would be interesting to see whether there is a linkage between that faction in society and the UKIP/Britain First vote.

    [1] The Kilwinning Orange Order Social Club is in the former Temperance Hall. A remarkable contrast between then and now!

    [2] In Scotland, schools still have “catchment areas”. In areas with Catholic schools, parents have the right to send their kids to either the Catholic or non-denominational school that serves their home.

    [3] A former janitor at Kilwinning Academy was jailed some years ago for storing arms for the UDA in the school.

  10. @ John B

    It seems extraordinary that those with the biggest commitment to the continuation of the UK have been so rudely slapped down by BT. “Yes”, on the other hand, were quite clear in their support of anyone wishing to express their opinions in a democratic manner…….
    or am I missing something……..?
    —————
    You’re missing something.

  11. @Roger H

    Yes, “some polls” struck me too.
    Thanks for counting :-)

  12. Thanks Sue… its nice to be appreciated.

  13. I forgot there was a saltire……

    Back to GB realities…..

    My seat totals are simply there to counteract the ‘percentage approach’, which under UNS leads to situations always other than I suggested.

    I think we should take on board the possibilities that it could be otherwise. As it’s Friday, one can speculate in this way.

  14. Owr dad’s just watched a wildlife programme in which huskies are visited by a starving bear and it plays with them – it was very sweet actually…… but……

    Now he wants US to play with bears so that we can be on telly as well.

    Daisie has told him this is not Northern Canada but she is prepared to play with the local rabbits if they will stop running away.

    Rose.

  15. Statgeek

    You don’t seem disposed to be very friendly to the Orange Lodge, either! But seriously, I’m not sure of their overall strength, but as you know, certainly in some areas Lodge members and their families and sympathisers constitute quite a sizable proportion of the population, in some towns and villages in the Central Belt 25% plus. All of them, in my limited experience, come from the same sort of background/social class/call it what you will which in England seems to be swinging towards UKIP. Just a thought…

  16. Howard

    Damn difficult these geographic terms! On UKPR, Northern Ireland is unreal because it isn’t in GB.

    Scotland is unreal, though it is in GB.

    GB realities probably don’t take much account of Wales, so where is GB real?

  17. @Amber star

    Don’t take my self-questioning too seriously….!

  18. @Old Nat

    Now now! Don’t fall into that old trap of thinking that the English can’t understand anything that isn’t English. Anyone would think you’re being a little cynical. It’s not Howard’s fault. It’s just the way he’s been brought up….

    Night night,all.

  19. Howard

    Actually Peat Worrier makes the point better than I ever could.

    “I came to realise that our political imaginations occupied two different spaces, and they simply hadn’t begun to take the possibility of independence seriously, or pondered why others might find it desirable or compelling.”

    http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-anatomy-of-panic.html

  20. John B

    Who are these “English” you refer to? Are they like the Cornish – a hidden nation, with no power of self-government, subjected to foreign rule?

    But, no. The Cornish status is officially recognised. The English must be the most forgotten people in Europe! :-(

  21. Various scenarios are being talked about; we are looking at the (albeit slim IMO) possibility of Miliband becoming PM on the back of a low thirties percentage.

    We will be saying, look, even if you are not a fan of Cameron, vote for him in the interests of maintaining a proper reflection of the intention of English voters.

  22. @Pressman

    What? Sorry, that makes absolutely no sense. For someone in the press you need to work very hard on getting a message across in a way that is intelligible.

  23. Old Nat & Howard

    Couldn’t resist reading lallands. Good stuff, even though very obvious if you give it a moment’s thought.

    There was a brief discussion yesterday about whether Cameron could beat Salmond in a tv debate. Lallands shows us why both could claim to win if a debate were to take place: they’re talking to different audiences, a bit like Clegg and Farage.
    Cameron’s interview on Scotland BBC yesterday evening, where he was given a very respectful and easy time by Sally Magnussen (ought to be Magnusdottir, but that’s another story) demonstrated the fact that Cameron, despite his surname, has neither any real understanding of Scotland nor any idea whatsoever of how to speak to Scots. And why should he? Until six months ago he never needed to know anything about Scotland. Trouble is, it’s a bit late to do a crash course now.

    Alistair Darling, on the other hand, knows his own country and his own people – and although he knows he’ll win the vote he hates every minute of it, because it’s all so dammed negative.

    The problem for those who belong to the South is that this all seems totally absurd – and to English eyes it is, of course. That is Lallands’ point. But what I said to Amber a week or two back still stands. Put differently, but with the same meaning: to vote ‘No’ is not to give any indication of what the gut feeling wishes were the case. Few of those who will vote No are ‘really really enthusiastic about the Union’ as it stands – outwith the Lodge, of course.

    Night night!

  24. “We will be saying, look, even if you are not a fan of Cameron, vote for him in the interests of maintaining a proper reflection of the intention of English voters.”

    Righty-ho – that is what I shall do.

    Good luck with your campaign.

  25. The Sheep

    The Lib Dems blocked boundary changes that would have made the GE next year much more representative. We could have Miliband in Number 10 despite around half of the electorate having voted for Cameron/UKIP.

    As I’ve said it will be no holds barred attacks on both Labour and UKIP but if the polls are not looking likely to produce the right result, the emphasis will change to ‘well what are we going to do about this’ ?

  26. Great to hear of the actions of that bastion of democracy, the UK press.

  27. Well actually, not great. Tedious.

  28. “in the interests of maintaining a proper reflection of the intention of English voters.”

    What?

    “despite around half of the electorate having voted for Cameron/UKIP”

    What is this Cameron/UKIP party? Will it be putting up candidates?


  29. AW

    “I think the point that the papers will say nasty things about Miliband come the election campaign has been made, I don’t think it needs to keep on being made – it doesn’t tend to produce some of the better discussions on the board.”

    R and D : Just in case anyone missed it.

    May 16th, 2014 at 3:22 pm

    Just in case anyone missed it twice.

    Maybe Anthony should put it in headlines?

  30. Any polls expected tonight?

  31. Look, I’ve seen what AW has said and it’s absolutely fair point but obviously a lot of you are looking at matters from a Labour point of view, however you have a leader who is somewhere between Kinnock and Foot in terms of popularity but because of circumstances has a chance of winning. NI and others – will be doing our level best that this travesty (in our opinion of course) does not come to pass.

  32. ole nat

    “The English must be the most forgotten people in Europe! ”

    No – they’re dead easy to spot: they’re the UK boys with a footy team in the WORLD CUP.

  33. @Pressman

    For many years I have considered most of UK national newspapers to be deceptive, manipulative and worthy only of contempt.

    Don’t take this personally – but 95% of what you post here shows me I’m quite correct to hold that view.

    Lumping together UKIP and the Tories like you did is incorrect, as they are separate parties.

    In the years of Mrs T, the combined Liberal/Labour vote exceeded the Conservative vote, but I don’t recall NI complaining her majorities meant that Parliament was not representative.

    What next?

    NI for PR?

  34. CatManJeff

    We know the system that we have is not going to produce a 50% plus winning party. Maggie won by decisive margins, increasing the number of votes won each time followed on by Major in 1992 ( primarily in fear of Kinnock).

    We are talking about the possibility of Miliband winning around 9 million votes – and becoming PM on a losing share with the Right split because of people like Cameron, Clarke etc.. who neither reflect the Thatcher heritage, the will of the majority of English people or even the grassroots of their own party. It will, if it comes to pass – and I’m pretty sure it won’t- be an outrage.

  35. ^ people on the left often moan that Thatcher didn’t have a ‘majority’ of the electorate, but how Miliband or Cameron would love those thumping 40-42% vote share majorities…

  36. @ Pressman,

    We could have Miliband in Number 10 despite around half of the electorate having voted for Cameron/UKIP.

    Because if there’s one thing that unites Ukip, it’s their love of David Cameron.

    if the polls are not looking likely to produce the right result, the emphasis will change to ‘well what are we going to do about this’ ?

    You could try putting Miliband’s head in a lightbulb, although it’s not really the right shape and anyway the new ones are all squiggly.

    @ Catmanjeff,

    I’m not sure it’s fair to hold Pressman against the newspapers.

  37. R&D

    Good point. In fact that makes an interesting pub quiz question.

    “What is the only place in the entire world, that has an international football team, but not a Parliament/Assembly of its own?”

  38. @Pressman

    By your reading NI is powerless when it comes to reuniting the Right?

  39. Just noticed the UKPR polling average has been updated and Labour’s projected majority has disappeared. They’re now one seat short, and have a 1% lead – 34 to 33.

  40. @Rich

    ^ people on the left often moan that Thatcher didn’t have a ‘majority’ of the electorate, but how Miliband or Cameron would love those thumping 40-42% vote share majorities…

    I wasn’t moaning, just pointing out an inconsistency.

    The only way to stop such anomalies is to have a proportionate system…..

  41. @Spearmint

    You are right.

    There must be reputable papers out there somewhere.

    Motorcycle News?

  42. @Rich

    ” but how Miliband or Cameron would love those thumping 40-42% vote share majorities…”

    Blair got those vote shares too in 1997 and 2001, remember, and carried “Tory England” quite comfortably too. He won a few seats as well, I seem to recall. 418, or something like that.

    Not bad.

  43. RogerH

    Of course, the 1931 GE was held on a Tuesday. Doubtless, that departure from tradition contributed to an unprecedented result.

    Fortunately, that experiment was discontinued, wit the happy result that that Westminster majorities have been selected by a minority ever since! :-)

  44. Not to nit pick Oldnat but the only Scottish Parliament majority was elected by a minority too!

  45. Mr Nameless

    Indeed it was. That’s elections on a Thursday for you! :-)

  46. @Pressman

    If Miliband gets a parliamentary majority of 1 he’d have done better than DC who you conveniently forget did not win a majority. He was saved by the LDs from minority government hell. All the press could not even deliver the crown to their chosen son against a deeply unpopular PM.

  47. Don’t know when this is from (it doesn’t provide a source) but the Evening Standard is reporting the following poll figures from YouGov for London:

    Lab 44
    Con 31
    LD 11
    UKIP 10
    GRN 2

  48. Any figures to compare those against?

  49. Mr Nameless

    Very similar to their previous London poll.

  50. According to the article that’s Labour +2, Cons -3, LDs +2, UKIP -1, Grn -1:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-is-still-backing-labour-despite-tories-national-upsurge-9384056.html

1 2 3 4 5 6