There have been a couple of new European and Scottish polls over the last couple of days. Europe first, this morning’s YouGov/Sun poll had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place, the Conservatives remain in third, the Greens and Lib Dems equal for fourth place.

The second was by ComRes who had toplines of CON 22%, LAB 24%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 34%, GRN 5%. Much better figures for UKIP there, with Labour and the Conservatives not far apart for second and the Lib Dems holding fourth place. A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.

Turning to the Scottish polls, there have been two new referendum polls this week, or at least, two newly published Scottish polls. The TNS poll was actually condcted in the last week of April and first couple of days of May. Their topline figures are YES 30%(+1), NO 42%(+1) – so no change in the lead. Tabs here. The second poll is by Survation and much more recent, their topline figures are YES 37%(-1), NO 47%(+1). A minor increase in the NO lead since their last poll, but really it’s a continuation of a no change trend in Survation’s Scottish polling: their last five referendum polls have all had figures within 1 point of YES 38%, NO 47%. Details here.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%


289 Responses to “Latest European and Scottish polls”

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  1. Amusing that the Express is arguing it’ll be a disaster for Labour to go from 3rd place to 2nd in the Euros but not for the Tories dropping from 1st to 3rd.

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  2. SYZYGY

    Many thanks for an interesting reply and i agree with much that you say above, but perhaps I did not express my point very well. What I was really trying to say was that whatever we in the UK do will have very little effect on climate change. If much of it is man made (and I am not yet convinced) then we have to persuade the Worlds big users of energy to go renewable and we have to stop the destruction of the rain forests. Perhaps i am just too old and cynical but i just don’t see that happening.

    Nice to see you posting here again by the way even though we don’t often agree.

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  3. THE OTHER HOWARD

    Thank you for those kind words.

    I agree that the imperative is to stop cutting down the ‘lungs of the earth’, the rain forests which lock up an enormous amount of the global carbon… and particularly in order to grow palm oil!

    However, China is very much leading the way in developing renewables. Their polluted cities are a big incentive.. and I imagine that we will have to reach a similar pitch of desperation before much changes here. Our lack of preparation for infrastructure which is not dependent on oil is quite terrifying.

    I don’t know if you have come across the blueprints developed by the Centre for Alternative Technology… ZeroCarbonBritain 2030? Those ideas plus the Desertec research give me hope that when the time comes, a lot can be put in place relatively quickly.. although it would (as is usual) to be better to be doing it now.

    I saw today that there is a new technique using molten salt for storing concentrated solar which will permit a supply uninterrupted overnight.

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  4. I went to the Great Wall of China a few years ago – you might be able to see it from space but you certainly can’t from earth – the smog was so bad.

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  5. DRMIBBLES

    I don’t agree, we are in a new situation where we know the date of the election. When the media said on May 7 that there is 1 year to go, it was a real focus of minds as many tend not to wake up until they know when the election is likely to be.

    1 year until Miliband becomes PM ? Is that what people want ? I don’t think it is and that is what the bulk of the Press will be reminding the electorate day after day, month after month – don’t sleepwalk into a disaster, sure we understand where UKIP are coming from, but Cameron has pledged a referendum and voting for them let’s the worst possible option in. That will be the relentless message.

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  6. pman

    “1 year until Miliband becomes PM ? Is that what people want ? I don’t think it is.”

    Yes, you’ve said that a number of times. Its very dull and nobody cares. Like everyone else you have one vote and that is the full extent of your influence over the result.

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  7. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    Your wrong again, I care for one, and I agree with Pressman , I don’t think it’s what people want, a view supported by the polls which show a slight preference for Labour at the moment, but none for EdM.

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  8. SYZYGY

    Thanks for the reference i will have a look when I get the time. I know about China and its work on renewables, very sensible of them, but they are still burning an awful lot of coal and likely to do so for a long time to come.

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  9. shevii

    Can’t find the UKIP London share of vote either in 2010 or now- usually turn to Rogermexico for that!

    The tables aren’t on the Archive yet. In fact the way the Standard handled the poll is rather odd. It seems to have been put up on their website Friday afternoon, presumably too late to get in any of the print editions. And of course the ES only publishes Monday to Friday so there will be no weekend coverage. YouGov are usually fairly good at getting the tables up if they know they will be published (even putting them on time delay for the next day if necessary), so they may have been surprised too.

    Perhaps the ES had meant to lead with the poll on Monday, but decided it wasn’t ‘newsworthy’ enough. Obviously a poll that showed Labour increasing its leads wouldn’t fit the story.

    UKIP didn’t really run enough candidates in London in 2010 for any figures to be meaningful. They only had 89 candidates then (from a total of 1851 possible) who got an average of 452 votes:

    http://data.london.gov.uk/documents/London-Borough-Council-Elections-2010.pdf#page=14

    which is not great given that it was the general election day as well. Even the Greens, who had nearly ten times the candidates got a better average.

    Incidentally that GLA Report above on the 2010 elections is great geeky fun with lots of tables and nice maps. In particular I was amazed how many split wards there are, perhaps because of a lot of people who don’t normally vote in locals splitting their choices.

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  10. ” it was a real focus of minds as many tend not to wake up until they know when the election is likely to be.”

    Where have those people been since 2010 ? The date of the next GE has been known for years !

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  11. Hull have just scored. Paul may be back shortly…

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  12. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    *The majority don’t and………”

    Have you any polling evidence for that?

    Enjoy the football, the Rugby was great although my team lost.

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  13. @ Neil A

    “Hull have just scored. Paul may be back shortly”

    And another- looks like a long evening for Paul and the pups but 2 up leads to complacency- not the same as politics though where it leads to a landslide :-)

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  14. Some are rel*ing on the election machine that poses as David Cameron after his phenomenal success in 2010 against Gordon Brown.

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  15. @R&D

    Well said.

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  16. Bramley

    He beat Brown by over 7 points. If Miliband becomes PM it will almost certainly be having lost the popular vote.

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  17. Pressman

    Well said.

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  18. @Pressman

    I don’t think you can be sure of that.

    Let’s see what happens in the Euros. I have noticed that often when the Cons pull even Lab get a bit of a boost. UKIP have lost momentum so Lab may yet top the Euro poll. What will you say if that happens Pressman ?

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  19. Couper – ” I have noticed that often when the Cons pull even Lab get a bit of a boost.”

    That’s a classic misinterpretation of a reversion to the mean. Most polls where the Conservatives have appears to pull closer will, almost by definition, have been no more than variation within the normal margin of error, so the polls afterwards tend to be closer to the underlying average.

    While your hypothesis (a closing lead encourages wavering Labour voters back into the fold) sounds perfectly reasonable to me, I’d be wary of evidence apparently showing it… far more likely to just be reversion to the mean.

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  20. Can I just say that Pressman must be the best fed troll in history.

    His larder must be positively bursting with billy goats by now.

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  21. @The Other Howard re ChrisLane1945’s comment “I will be truly amazed if the electorate think as you suggest come election 2015.”

    Something to bear in mind is that the electorate are always capable of “Austerity fatigue” and if so might thus choose Labour, remembering the “good days” before the crash.

    They equally may buy “the job is not yet done” – but I suspect for many the opposite may be true?

    I remember February 1974 – and how the Conservatives were astonished when having asked the electorate after 3 day weeks, austerity pay & incomes policies etc. “Who governs Britain?” to their astonishment and dismay the voters had tired of the disruption and austerity to the extent that enough voted to have Wilson back in order to get a quiet life, and a return to the “easier” times of the 1960s they remembered rather than stand up to the unions.

    2015 could thus go either way dependant upon how many electors “want” more austerity as they think it right, or prefer to go back to what they might perceive as a “quiter easier going life” under Labour.

    I am not saying either is right or wrong – but believing you are arguing for what is right is no guarantee of victory!!

    I also wonder how much traction the referendum promise will have, and thus will it actually benefit the Tories?

    Is it probably wishful thinking to attribute the UKIP surge to support for exiting the EU?

    Many UKIP voters are just protesting against the political establishment – they may be vaguely anti-EU – but will it be the “killer offer” that Cameron seems to think? – I have my doubts.

    It certainly gets a certain section of the Tories so worked-up that I fear it has begun to cloud their own judgement as to its saliency when influencing voters one way or the other?

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  22. @ Neil A

    Agree; I am not responding to Pressman’s comments until he posts one that says something other than his ‘mantra’. I don’t want to be unwelcoming but it just gets boring reading the same thing posted by the same person. [snip]

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  23. The sad thing is that if Pressman is really an NI journalist, then there are probably a huge range of fascinating insights he could offer.

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  24. Paul – am in a quandry as like most sports fans, if my team is not involved I want theUnderdog, in the case Hull, to win.

    However. Arsenals period of winning things occurred when Labour won Nationwide Elections and neither has happened since 2005.

    So If Arsenal win today maybe Labour could top the poll Thursday.

    Or maybe as the FA CUP is the third trophy it equates to Labour beating the Tories but not winning and only coming second to UKIP.

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  25. Neil A

    I’m offering as many insights as I can; we are trying to invoke the spirit of 92. It’s important to educate people; someone said to me the other day ‘the tories are in front then !’ I said a poll or two does show this, but in reality the system is so geared towards Labour that a small Tory lead equals Miliband in No.10.

    It’s a big task (Cameron majority) as I’ve already outlined but it’s not beyond the realms that the result that the owner wants can come to pass.

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  26. @R&D
    “pman
    “1 year until Miliband becomes PM ? Is that what people want ? I don’t think it is.”
    Yes, you’ve said that a number of times. Its very dull and nobody cares. Like everyone else you have one vote and that is the full extent of your influence over the result.”

    I find it amusing rather than dull that someone (claiming to be) from NI expresses outrage that despite their very best efforts to tell the public what to think there is a fair chance that Miliband could still glean enough votes to win.

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  27. Pressman and TOH

    When did we change our voting system

    Miliband cannot be PM by not winning the vote! The vote for PM is made by MPs. They are his electorate

    If you want to change the voting system then do so by all means. I believe there was a chance to start doing that but the Tories campaigned against it

    The moaning about popular vote is all well and good but there is also the question about the number of voters not on the electoral role and those that do not bother voting, that is the true scandal.

    The Tories may also have delivered boundary changes though if the had followed the normal process of discussing with all parties, not just with their Coalition pets.

    Stop moaning because the situation is of the making of the Coalition and nothing to do with Labour

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  28. ICM/Telegraph European elections:

    Lab 29
    Con 26
    UKIP 25
    LD 7

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  29. News coming in of a poll showing a huge UKIP lead in the EU election.

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  30. On the London elections, to answer a query from OldNat earlier, they clearly matter a lot because they’re in the very last set of councils that hasn’t had an election since 2010, so the changes will be directly comparable with the voting at the GE, in addition to which they are all out elections with much more chance of councils changing hands than in the met districts where only one-third of seats are contested annually.

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  31. Obviously not that ICM one, seems to be another Comres one.

    Further info at 19:30!

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  32. @ Jim Jam

    And fits in with your theory as Arsenal 3-2 up!

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  33. Looks like still all to play for in the last week of the campaign, then, if that poll is anything to go by.

    Unless you’re a Lib Dem.

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  34. Comres Euro poll:

    UKIP 35% (+1)

    Labour 24% (0)

    Con 20% (-2)

    Green 7% (+2)

    LibDem 6% (-2)

    Other 8% (0)

    ====

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/05/17/ukip-hold-record-11-point-lead-in-european-election/

    Yes.

    6% for the Lib dems. SIX

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  35. New thread- bet AW had his contacts tell him in advance and didn’t let on!

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  36. Phil Haines

    I didn’t suggest that the London elections don’t matter a lot. Of course they do – to people who live in London.

    However, the number of MEPs or councillors elected in London boroughs will not make an iota of difference to those not resident, or working, in London.

    Welsh Borderer’s response to my question appeared to be that lots of people live in London so that, automatically, makes those elections the most important in the UK.

    I’ll note the results of the local elections in London (one of the world’s great international cities) with interest, just as I do with the New York City council/mayoral elections.

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  37. @Tony Dean: “They equally may buy ‘the job is not yet done'”

    The Tories attempt with that in 1945 (‘Help him finish the job’) produced a 12 point swing to Labour.

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  38. NEIL A
    “Can I just say that Pressman must be the best fed troll in history.
    His larder must be positively bursting with billy goats by now.”

    A remarkably offensive post but typical of some who post here sadly and showing a remarkable lack of good manners.

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  39. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 16th May – Con 34%, Lab 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%; APP -21

    This would have looked liked a typical Yougov poll from the last 6 months, if we were to forget the polling events of the last week, i note that Others are totaling 9% – 2% above their norm, which might give hope to Lab or LD.

    The state of Britain’s economy has become less negative this week (employment figures?

    However the question

    How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? -has become slightly more negative at -17% (18% Better 35% Worse).

    Con supporters positive Lab and UKiP very negative, poorer people very negative, wealthier people much less negative.

    i am surprised by this as wages with the new raised tax allowance was paid into bank accounts at the end of April, to nil voting effect it seems. I wonder if raising interests rates and therefore savings rates would cheer up older people.

    The theme remains of poorer people and those away from the south of England feeling extremely pessimistic about their economic future – not much enthusiasm for any party to solve the problem, maybe there is no solution.

    oh and Ed M personal ratings have dropped sharply among Lab voters this week

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