There have been a couple of new European and Scottish polls over the last couple of days. Europe first, this morning’s YouGov/Sun poll had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place, the Conservatives remain in third, the Greens and Lib Dems equal for fourth place.
The second was by ComRes who had toplines of CON 22%, LAB 24%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 34%, GRN 5%. Much better figures for UKIP there, with Labour and the Conservatives not far apart for second and the Lib Dems holding fourth place. A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.
Turning to the Scottish polls, there have been two new referendum polls this week, or at least, two newly published Scottish polls. The TNS poll was actually condcted in the last week of April and first couple of days of May. Their topline figures are YES 30%(+1), NO 42%(+1) – so no change in the lead. Tabs here. The second poll is by Survation and much more recent, their topline figures are YES 37%(-1), NO 47%(+1). A minor increase in the NO lead since their last poll, but really it’s a continuation of a no change trend in Survation’s Scottish polling: their last five referendum polls have all had figures within 1 point of YES 38%, NO 47%. Details here.
Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%