Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been published by the Standard. Topline figures show Labour still ahead, but their lead falling – CON 31%(nc), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 11%(-4), GREEN 8%(+5). I don’t have a decent spreadsheet of historical trend data for the Greens, but that is likely their highest level of Green support for some time, presumably a result of the publicity from the European elections.


343 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 11”

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  1. An outlier perheps?

    But Labour down in this poll too. For what reason possibly?

  2. Labour ahead but lead still falling.

    EM approval ratings melting like snow of a dyke.

    Uh oh.

  3. #off

  4. Gonna repost this comment I just made on previous thread, before news of Ipsos Mori poll and new thread, as it seems relevant:

    Just a local observation, but Labour here in Brighton seem thus far to be doing absolutely zero campaigning for the Euros. We haven’t even received a freepost leaflet from them, which I would have thought every area would get. On this evidence, I’m not surprised their poll ratings are suffering.

    There are no local elections here, which might explain it, but even so it seems a little surprising, and a tactical mistake given their desire to get rid of the Greens at next year’s GE and local election. If the Greens (of which I am a member) can get the most Euro votes across the Brighton and Hove area next week, as they did in 2009, it will be great propaganda for next year’s campaign, and a useful way of countering the ‘Green problems in Brighton’ media narrative.

    Also a little shocked to see UKIP billboards going up here (though rapidly defaced), even in alternative/student areas of city. UKIP obviously have a lot of cash, even if minimal presence on the ground.

  5. Worst time to lose momentum for Labour. If Milliband had something to say on Europe it may have helped focus the public on that.

  6. Hear that sound? It is the sound of a Labour majority disappearing out of the door!

    It should be deeply worrying to Lab supporters (of which I am one) that their voting intention has slipped dramatically since a national campaign has begun. I am also concerned with the regular complacency shown by Lab supporters which seems to revolve around a belief that 1/ Lab vote will definitely be larger than 2010, 2/ Con vote will definitely be smaller than 2010 and 3/ the LD deserters/joiners will not gravitate back to the LDs.

    With the state of the parties (and the state of the leaders) being what they are less than a year out, I see no reason why any of the 3 will happen (OK, maybe the LDs will only see a modest rather than full recovery, but their collapse actually benefits the Cons more than Lab).

  7. @Adrian B:

    Dont worry too much about it. The Euro elections have a tendancy to unduly influence Westminster polls and here we have it. The sudden boost for the Greens seems to be a bit of a giveaway really.

    Not that I think UKIP will just melt away, but lets not all get too fixated by polls in any one week.

    Unless that is sudden large moves in Labour’s VI over the last 3 days is proof that there will be no more moves large or small over the next year…..

  8. I think the one saving grace for labour is that they have twelve months to now properly re-assess and re-organise before the GE and post the Euros it is likely the Polls will stabilize. However labour is not only facing a GE but just IMHO a question for longer term survival. I know that sounds dramatic and may be seen as personal opinion bias but let’s look at the facts….the Party’s financial position is poor, the ‘Yes’ campaign in Scotland could still win, there are no clear future Leadership Candidates, the brand is impacted by the Economy and Iraq, it seems they are losing Votes in every political direction, the traditional tribal labour voter family that has voted labour each generation seems to be reducing, Union funding is slowly drying up. It will be a very interesting polling dynamic over the next few Years as other smaller Parties take Votes from the traditional Parties.

  9. @Adrian B – Agreed

    Complacency, rise of multi-party politics and fall of two party system, improving economy, all seem to be converging to for a perfect storm around Labour, and they seem bereft of ideas to counter the problem.

    I hate to say it, but is it too late for a new team?

  10. @ Ian Bailey,

    I think it probably will sort itself out by the general election, but this does prove Labour is doing a lousy, lousy job rallying the opposition to the Government behind their banner. European elections are always difficult for them but there’s no excuse for their position being this bad.

  11. @JohnB (FPT)

    “SNP have jumped 7 points in two days, with Lab dropping 3. Anyone out there able to explain?”

    MoE most likely. I’m not going to be tempted to suggest a cange in a Scottish cross break is anything else. Today’s poll gives:

    SNP 32%
    Lab 31%
    Con 27%
    Lib 4%

    Seats:
    Lab 28 (-13)
    SNP 16 (+10)
    Con 13 (+12)
    Lib 2 (-9)

    Con on 27% in Scotland is less believable until we get some trends. Above 20% is likely, but below 25% in my opinion. Unless there’s been some left to right shift, and UKIP don’t appeal.

  12. The employment figures have come at a very interesting time in the polling. Will they make a difference?

  13. Interested to know what people here think will happen if there is another hung parliament in 2015. Will we have a referendum on real electoral reform, rather than the AV nonsense they tried to fob us off with last time? Or is that it and we are now stuck with this ridiculous FPTP system.

  14. Perverse reporting in the Standard of Mori Ipsos.

    BTW Anthony the Labour fall is apparently 3 not 4.

    If it had been 4, then perhaps the word ‘dive’ could have been possibly used. As it is, my headline would have been ‘Labour and UKIP lose support as Greens soar’. The business one would have been ‘government parties fail to benefit from increased confidence’.

  15. If the Greens are doing well because of the Euros then why are UKIP down 4 ?

  16. I think the faint hearts manifested above concerning the Labour Party are unnecessary. Labour has been planning its campaign since Ed Miliband won the leadership – if not before. Ed Miliband has managed to lead the political agenda on several occasions in recent years, more so than any other opposition leader in decades.

    I think it has been a slow and steady wins the race approach which will gather speed considerably after July when policies are agreed in principle. Policies, so far announced have all attracted considerable approval and helped Labour maintain its polling ratings. With the apparent improvement in the economy being trumpeted by the Tories their polls have also moved a little – but not much.

    It is being said (in the Telegraph), that it is the ‘vision thing’ that will win the election. Thus far there are no ‘inspirational political visions’ from any party but I believe that at the party conference in Autumn Labour will feel able to state clearly where they want to take the country – and its people – should they win in May 2015.

    The parlous state of the labour market (too much flexibility not enough productivity) will assume a much larger profile in the coming months and will become a millstone around the necks of the Tories and the Lib Dems – that is an observation not a partisan rant.

  17. If the problem is merely Labour support drifting to the Greens, that wouldn’t be insoluble by any stretch of the imagination. That would be almost certain to return for the general election (except in Brighton Pavilion specifically). I have a friend in Brighton who would consider voting either Labour or Green who confirmed there hasn’t been a Labour freepost leaflet (it’s clear that here in sunny Richmond everyone has now had one). If the problem is more deep-seated then it’s going to be far harder to solve. If indeed Labour is 3% ahead after the elections this month it would still leave the party in a fairly good position to enter Downing Street next year; if the parties are only level it will be much more difficult. (Remember that if the Tories are even 3% ahead of Labour it will be very difficult, maybe even impossible, for them to form a government.)

  18. The situation in Scotland is fascinating in my opinion.

    Hard to take too much from a component element of a national poll but it looks very much like Labour will do worse in Scotland this time than in 2010 when they did *better* than in 2005 (attributed to having a Scottish leader). In fact, they look set to do worse in Scotland than any election since 1987. This obviously can’t be credited to an unpopular devolved govt. like Labour’s fortunes in Wales can be – in fact, you’d think Lab would be soaring in Scotland with the SNP having been in power for 7 years, the No Campaign still comfortably ahead on the IndyRef and the Tories in govt. at Westminster.

    Experts on Scottish politics say that Labour have taken Scotland for granted for too long and have few members on the ground.

    Furthermore, the LDs are on 4% in Scotland with YouGov. They have a lot of hitherto safe seats up there but on those rating even those would surely be under threat…

    All of that raises the question of whether the SNP will make big gains. There aren’t many seats that they don’t hold where they were particularly close in 2010 but could the decline of LAB and the LDs, and the continuing poor image of the CONs north of the border, lead to a significant change in the situation in Scotland?

    I’d be very surprised if the 2010 result, which was a perfect repeat of 2005 (with LAB gaining back by-election losses) is repeated.

  19. I live just outside Brighton & I got my Labour leaflet last week sometime.

  20. @EPIPHRON

    I am pro-majoritarian systems (I’d rather AV than FPTP, but very much against a proper PR system for the UK). I think that representation of communities is as much, if not more, important than perfect representation of the vote share and would thus resist multi-member constituencies or a mixed system (which would necessarily lead to larger constituencies).

    I can’t really see any reform being looked to post election as whoever is in govt. will by nature have done OK out of FPTP. The AV result has pretty much taken it offer the agenda.

  21. New Opinium Euro poll:

    UKIP 30 (+2)
    LAB 28 (+1)
    CON 22 (-1)
    LD 7 (-1)
    GRN 5 (NC)

    So, not such good news for Greens there, although I still believe there’s an excellent chance they will beat the LibDems.

  22. Lab will be heartened by that +5% for Greens – something to point to I think.

    Also the latest Opinium results for the Euros suggest that freefall isn’t quite the correct adjective for the Lab VI just yet. I think they’d take Tories being on 22% come polling day.

  23. Right on cue – 8% of Brits are anti-semites: http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/may/14/one-in-four-people-worldwide-holds-antisemitic-views-study-finds

    That kind of figure would go some way to explaining how a personable, friendly party leader could lag behind his party’s ratings.

  24. The Euros/UKIP are rather like a small crash spilling the contents of various containers around.

    The whole situation is a bit odd and quietly watching it unfold seems to make more sense than shouting:

    “They/We’re dooooooooooooooooooooooomed.”

    Givvitta mumf then comment.

  25. A poll for you all: Does anyone actually think that the Greens will get 8% at the GE?

  26. Chris Green

    No, and I’m a member and activist! But all part of evidence for us doing well in Euros and beating LDs.

  27. @Luke – Me neither. Which leads to the follow-up question: where will that Green 6-7% surplus go at the GE?

  28. @ JACK SHELDON

    The usual jusification given for FPTP is that it delivers strong majority governments. But if the electorate keep delivering hung parliaments surely this is no longer a valid argument.

    You might say it doesn’t matter because we’ve had a relatively strong coalition government for the last 5 years. But surely then the question is, so why do we need FPTP at all?

    If a PR system was used for the 2015 general election its possible that the Greens might poll higher than the LDs. Yet the likelyhood is that under FPTP the Greens with still have just 1 MP in 2015 and the LDs around 50. What kind of system of democracy is that?

  29. @ Chris Green

    They would likely get more than that if we had PR

  30. @Epiphron – Certainly, all non-centrist parties would benefit from a proportional electoral system, be they Green, Socialist, Nationalist, or what-have-you. Would that be a good thing? Well, my answer is … that I intend to keep my comments on here about the methodology and implications of polling, rather than bringing my own idiosyncratic personal views to the fore.

    I think that this site is more valuable as a forum for non-partisan discussion of polls than it would be as yet another arena for inter-ideological slanging matches. Over the time I’ve been posting, I’ve been told that I am displaying my bias towards Labour, towards the Lib Dems, towards the Conservatives, and towards UKIP. I take that variety as a compliment to my ability to discuss the polls in a non-partisan fashion, and wish that others took similar pride in maintaining a visible neutrality. Just my tuppence-worth.

  31. the sight of the labour battalions panicking at the sound of gun fire is very funny… labour have absolutely no “offer” and are very poor at communicating whatever it is they wish to do. Having said that, the tories are in a pretty dire state. it was noticeable that the vanishing poll leads have been entirely driven by a fall in labour support. the tories still can’t get much above 34% it would appear.

  32. @Chris Green – Labour, most likely.

  33. baffled.

  34. @LUKE (earlier post re zero campaigning.)
    Talking to some UKIP members last night here in West Wales, who were busy putting up posters. They noted very little poster activity from any other party; requests from non-members for posters and car horns hooted with thumbs up as they passed the larger posters. They were cock-a-hoop, with local membership up 50% since January, but very cross about their posters being removed of vandalised. I can’t see their enthusiasm waning before the general election unless there is a big and unexpected turn-down in UKIP’s fortunes next week. They were mostly inexperienced but looking at the EU elections as a training ground for running the big campaign next year.
    Apparently 60% of those attending Nigel Farage’s meeting in Swansea were non-members, but I went and would not have known from the response. I would not be surprised to see the 2013 “more votes than we ever expected” repeated next week.

  35. @ Chris Green

    I’m not making a party political point. I live in a constituency that is a safe seat for the incumbent and my vote effectively counts for nothing. I intend to spoil my ballot at every election until we get a modern democracy that is representative of the people. Lets have some UKIP MPs, some Socialist MPs, more Green MPs, perhaps even some BNP MPs.

    I don’t believe it is partisan to suggest that we should have a parliament that actually represents the views of the electorate. We’re living in a pseudodemocracy.

  36. @Epiphron

    European elections are PR, so if you’ve been spoiling your vote in them, you’ve been throwing away the vote that actually did make a different.

  37. Hookeslaw is right. This can’t be explained away merely by the Euros. Because otherwise the ukip percentage would be up too.
    There is something happening – Greens _are_ attracting support.
    I think it is a new phenomenon – An anti-UKIP vote looking for a positive and meaningful home, and finding it in the greens.

  38. @ JAYBLANC

    My mistake. I meant at every non-PR election.

  39. @Alec – That is my view too. It seems unlikely that the past week’s high Green VI will be replicated at the GE. Honestly, at this time of year many respondents think the GE question is about the Euros, even if you explicitly say “at the general election”, because many respondents don’t read the questions thoroughly and assume you’re asking about the imminent election.

  40. As usual with telephone polls it has to be remembered that the relevant sample size is small, usually only about 500, and so margin of error is high. So you would expect MORI to be showing large variation from month to month, particularly as they don’t apply any political weighting. So the ‘drop’ in UKIP VI in the latest MORI is more likely just a reversal of the increase last month (from 11% to 15%) which itself was probably just random noise.

    The MORI tables etc are now available via the main article:

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3379/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-May-2014.aspx

  41. @Epiphron – The majority of Britons want centrist, majoritarian governments. For good or for ill, that is the system which we have.

  42. @ Peter Crawford

    “the sight of the labour battalions panicking at the sound of gun fire is very funny… labour have absolutely no “offer” and are very poor at communicating whatever it is they wish to do.”

    I agree the panic is laughable, especially as the evidence is Lab are losing support to the Greens , the vast majority of which will come home in a GE.
    I also agree the communication about Euro elections has been poor/non-existent – I haven’t had anything and the local council candidates here haven’t a clue about the EE campaign.
    But for a (presumably) Con supporter to claim Lab have “no offer” has a special level of hilarity when every time I open UKPR I have expensive Tory advertising exclusively on a topic which has nothing whatever to do with the EE. Though of course they do have this in common with UKIP.

  43. @ Chris Green

    Fair enough. I’ll shut up in a minute, but first consider this senario:

    Labour gain fewer votes than the Tories in 2015, yet end up as the largest party. UKIP poll higher than the LDs, yet fail to gain a single seat. Don’t you think people might start to question the system?

  44. Fieldwork was 10-12 May and with the Labour Lead apparently on quite a rapid downtrend it’s not so odd that this one’s a bit high.

    Interestingly the average of the last 5 polls now has a Labour Lead of zero. So we could be in cross-over territory in the next few days. Let’s see what happens…

  45. *scenario

  46. @HOOKESLAW: “If the Greens are doing well because of the Euros then why are UKIP down 4 ?”

    Those are the ones who’ve died since the last poll.

    “…with local membership up 50% since January”

    50% of what, though?

  47. @EPIPHRON: “Labour gain fewer votes than the Tories in 2015, yet end up as the largest party. UKIP poll higher than the LDs, yet fail to gain a single seat. Don’t you think people might start to question the system?”

    No more than usual. (And what’s so good about ‘strong’ government, BTW?)

  48. @ROGERH

    Nothing at all. That was an argument I (possibly wrongly?) attributed to fans of the FPTP system, not my own.

  49. I think we may have to be a little circumspect about the polls that appear periodically, be they once in a blue moon (Ipsos/Mori and ComRes), monthly (ICM, Survation) or weekly (Populus/Opinium) and concentrate on what the daily YouGovs are telling us. If there really has been a trending decline in Labour’s support, this is where we’ll see it and it will be sustained over time. We’ve had two polls suggesting that things are on the move, and the periodic polls have supported this theory too, with a 1% Labour lead and a level-pegger, but we need to remember that it’s only three days ago that we had a YouGov showing Labour on 38% and with a 7% lead.

    There are undoubtedly some potentially disturbing signs for Labour loyalists in these recent clutch of polls, but it’s far too early to say that plates are shifting as some have been tempted to do. If the YouGov daily polls carry on the trend established since Monday, then it may be that we have to alter our perspectives a little, but we’re not there yet. I’m of the “let’s wait and see” school because there are already some contra-indicators like today’s Opinium poll that are suggesting not much has changed at all. This Ipsos/Mori also contains the reassurance for Labour that the Tory vote remains becalmed in the low 30s.

    Permission to panic comes when the Labour decline is matched almost exactly by a surge in the Tory VI. That’s genuine crossover and may signal the end game for Labour as far as the next GE is concerned. There’s no evidence of that occurring at all at the moment, and it’s the lifebelt that Labour must cling too as the political water gets choppy. What we’ve seen over the last three days is an abrupt and significant drop in Labour support that could be explained by the impending Euro election tomfoolery.

    I’m still sitting in my deckchair smoking cigars, me. Complacency? Maybe. Sang-froid in the face of enemy fire? You betcha!

    Leafleting tonight and chatting with voters. Spring in the air, election around the corner. Time to fight. Love it.

    :-)

  50. @Epiphron – On the “fewer votes but more seats” scenario, that has happened three times in the last century alone – 1929, 1951, and Feb 1974 – but those events did not engender a great tide of pro-PR sentiment.

    As for UKIP, you are assuming that them being excluded is a bug, when in fact it is a feature. FPTP is designed to exaggerate the support of centrist parties. If, as the polls imply, UKIP attract the votes of less than 10% of the electorate in 2015, the other 90% of the electorate will probably be either unmoved or glad.

    After all, FPTP is annoying to a socialist or a nationalist when it stops them from getting elected themselves, but is a relief when it stops their opposite being elected. Socialists prefer centrists to nationalists; nationalists prefer centrists to socialists. So by that logic, FPTP benefits everyone: you may not be getting your first choice, but at least you’re not getting your bottom choice either.

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