Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been published by the Standard. Topline figures show Labour still ahead, but their lead falling – CON 31%(nc), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 11%(-4), GREEN 8%(+5). I don’t have a decent spreadsheet of historical trend data for the Greens, but that is likely their highest level of Green support for some time, presumably a result of the publicity from the European elections.


343 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 11”

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  1. @ AC

    That was where I got the tip from. This was for 10/10 certain to vote and similar but with not such a high UKIP lead when taking the 5-10 likely to vote.

  2. BARBAZENZERO

    Having been there before, I suspect the reason is number 4. The Record wants to stretch the poll over two days to get two stories out of the results, so they’ve asked Survation to hold back part of the results to publish tomorrow.

  3. @ Chris Green,

    Fond though I am of Peter Mandelson, I think there is probably a non-homophobic case to be made against his morals.

    (That column was ridiculous, though. One may not like Ed Miliband’s economic agenda or think he has the remotest chance of implementing it, but it’s absurd to claim he doesn’t have one or that it’s the establishment position.)

  4. @chrisG@Rich
    The DT article stays behind the paywall for me, but so far as PM’s morals are concerned, there are more things in life than sex.
    @PaulA “the two main parties will perform better and UKIP worse – what will be the crossover effect of the local elections with the Euros?”
    The two main parties may perform better and UKIP worse, and a poll giving UKIP 34% is a tough target, but going on 2013 and council by-elections, I wouldn’t be completely amazed if UKIP performed better in a few cases.
    As for crossover effect, I think the chief influence on the locals will be that a lot of UKIP supporters will turn out to vote in the EU election who might well have stayed at home just for locals – especially if it is wet.

  5. The Euro election poll by ComRes was done on behalf of something called C4M which regular readers may remember is not the trendy media organisation that you might think from that sort of moniker, but something called the Coalition 4 Marriage. Even more confusingly it is actually an anti-marriage organisation – at least if the participants happen to have the same gender. Hence the presence of various rather strange questions later on in the tables.

    Now ComRes and these monkeys have form when it comes to asking ambiguous questions, not displaying all the relevant cross-breaks and misrepresenting or misunderstanding the results. and there’s good examples in this batch. However the first thing to look at is the actual Euro VI which display what is becoming a real problem:

    For All respondents expressing a voting intention and saying 10/10 likelihood to vote

    UKIP 34%

    Lab 24%

    Con 22%

    L/D 8%

    Green 5%

    SNP/PC 5%

    BNP 1%

    Other *%

    However All respondents expressing a voting intention and saying 5-10 likelihood to vote (weighted to turnout values)

    UKIP 29%

    Lab 27%

    Con 23%

    L/D 8%

    Green 6%

    SNP/PC 5%

    BNP 1%

    Other 1%

    That’s quite a big difference, which you can also see to a much lesser extent in today’s YouGov. Of course we won’t know till a week on Sunday, but I suspect that for an online poll the 5-10 is more reliable.

  6. Oborne seemingly forgot that the Cons have the Australian Lynton Crosby & the American Jim Messina, and the LDs have South African Ryan Coetzee as advisors.

    Can’t imagine why he picked on Axelrod….

  7. ANTHONY WELLS

    Thanks. I’ll go along with #4.

    Tomorrow’s Record headline could well be: UKIP failing to attract Labour votes.

  8. @Spearmint

    Actually despite some obvious bias I thought the DT article was OK. I’m not sure about ‘ringing truths’ but I do think Lab have failed to spell out any ‘vision thing’ and I think that’s disappointing.
    Sure, EM has been deft at creating bite-sized chunks of policy (energy, rent, GP’s waiting times) but it’s not that clear what Lab stands for in a wider sense, and quite a lot of economic policy could be characterised as ‘we’ll do what they do, but we’re nicer’
    By contrast UKIP have got naff all policy other than bear down on forriners and especially euro-forriners but they have a strong image/identity.
    I know Lab have had a strategy of keeping the powder dry and I suspect there’s still a battle raging between the tory-lite and reinvented old labour wings but actually I think they need to communicate a vision for Britain that everyone can cotton on to: the detailed polices can then fill out the vision.

  9. Ipsos Mori:

    IN 54% (+10%)
    OUT 37% (-11%)

    Well then.

  10. ANTHONY WELLS

    You were spot on. I’ve just had offline confirmation from What Scotland Thinks that the missing tables will be added to their Euro poll thread tomorrow AM and presumably the missing 4 pages will be restored to the PDF.

  11. @COUPER2802: “I think if the GE 15 turns out similar to GE 10 i.e Cons largest party and LibDems with enough seats to give them a majority – which is a reasonably likely”

    I’d say it was the least likely result but even so I don’t see the remaining LibDems agreeing to another coalition whatever Clegg wants.

    As I’ve said before, I reckon it’s pretty certain that Labour and UKIP will do better than in 2010 while the Tories and LibDems do worse. Even if he has fewer MPs than Cameron I’d expect Miliband to attempt to form a government.

  12. @ALLAN CHRISTIE: “If this is a new poll then UKIP are heading for a European landslide.”

    Will it really make any difference if they do, though?

  13. Another EU Commission Presidency debate coming up at 8pm on BBC Parliament.

    As has been pointed out, fringe groupings like the Conservative’s ECR and Ukip’s EFD don’t get to participate.

  14. Jim Jam,

    Further to my earlier post, there is one other scenario where DC could remain PM, even without leading the largest party. The likelihood of that possibility may become apparent later this month.

    If UKIP do indeed top the polls in the Euros – as now seems likely – then there is a strong possibility they could still be polling in the teens May next year. If in fact they manage high teens, or more, there may well be a number of UKIP MPs elected. If they retain mid 20s, which cannot be excluded, that number could be sufficient to deliver a Con-UKIP coalition.

    Such a coalition may not be an ideal scenario for most on here. But it cannot be dismissed as a possibility, whatever Mr Farage may say today. After all, how could he not support the one other party which would deliver his party’s primary raison d’être ?

  15. Billy Bob.

    I don’t know what’s wrong with me nowadays, but I would not even lift a finger to press the remote button to watch that EU Presidency debate.

  16. Roger H (6.46)

    “Even if he has fewer MPs than Cameron I’d expect Miliband to attempt to form a government.”

    The Queen will call on Cameron first to form a government Only if Cameron fails to get a majority of MPs of any party to join him either in coalition or in some other supporting role and is therefore unable to form a reasonably stable government will the Queen then call on Milliband to try.

  17. Paul H_J
    I cannot think of a constituency where UKIP could win with those percentages. Could you suggest a few please?

  18. Apologies, missing full stop after government at 7.08

  19. @RogerH

    “@COUPER2802: “I think if the GE 15 turns out similar to GE 10 i.e Cons largest party and LibDems with enough seats to give them a majority – which is a reasonably likely”
    I’d say it was the least likely result but even so I don’t see the remaining LibDems agreeing to another coalition whatever Clegg wants.”

    Yea. I agree Clegg would find it very hard to carry his party into a renewal of the current coalition.

    Actually I dont think Clegg himself would want this (I understand people are pretty cynical about the man and that its even to Lab’s advantage to highlight his lack of principles) because he would see how self-destructive it would be to the LDs.

    All IMO of course but I think one of the reasons why Clegg did the EU debates with Farage was so that he could draw an absolute line around himself as the party for staying IN the EU. That makes it easier for him to scupper a 2nd coalition if the number suggest that*. He knows that DC will have to make the EU referendum a red line in any discussions.

    * Again its only my opinion but I think at least part of the reason why Clegg was so amenable to the 1st coalition being formed is that he didn’t want the LDs to be painted (by the Tory press) as indecisive after the 2010 count. He judged (whether rightly or wrongly is a moot point) that to not form a coalition would have been even worse for the LDs.

  20. “If they retain mid 20s, which cannot be excluded…”

    I exclude it. I doubt they’ll retain it through the summer, never mind for a whole year.

  21. The Oborne piece was absurd. Oborne is good on the Conservative Party (apart when he has one of his odd hagiographic moments and describes some second-rater as if they are one of this ages’ foremost genius) because he’s one of them and understands them but also has a strong moral sense of how he wants the Tories to be better than the other parties.

    He is dreadful on other parties because every time he writes about them it’s clear he doesn’t understand them and doesn’t care to.

  22. “The Queen will call on Cameron first to form a government…”

    Strictly speaking he’ll still be the government so she won’t have to call on anyone unless and until he resigns. I just don’t see any of the other parties wanting to keep him in No 10 (or some of his own party, for that matter).

  23. The Ladbrokes betting odds are mildly disappointing for Labour, showing them falling short of an OM, failing to win seats I had them down for winning like Norwich North, Stevenage and Vale of Glamorgan ( somewhat counter-balanced by them being slight favourites or evens with the Tories in seats I don’t expect them to win like Warwick and Gloucester )

    On the other hand they would be easily the largest party and in the light of this freakishly bad week for Labour maybe something of a relief for them!

  24. Paul H-J – ” …whatever Mr Farage may say today.”

    Farage was interviewed today (W@One) and said that he would be more than happy go into coalition with any party leader on the basis of an In/Out referendum… as to a pre-election pact with David Cameron, he thought it “highly unlikely”.

    On the subject of not ruling things out, Clegg was on Today this morning, and apart from being grilled about the cactus arson incident, he also appeared to contradict a suggestion that his opposition to such a referendum would rule out a coalition deal with David Cameron.

  25. A good treble bet : UK will stay in EU [a vote won’t be taken but polls will show the mood], Scotland will stay within the UK and Labour will win an overall majority in 2015.

    No idea what will remain of Lib Dems or what next for Tory party.

  26. @Chris Riley

    As good a description of Oborne’s merits as a political commentator that I’ve read. He takes some maverick and interesting stances at times, but he’s a tribal Tory to his bootstraps. Of that tribe, from that tribe and for that tribe.

    There are Labour equivalents, of course, although they get less opportunities to ply their wares in our national newspapers. Oborne’s ilk proliferate and are grossly over-represented in our public discourse.

    I do not agree with what they have to say, but I’ll defend to the death their right to say it. I just wish there weren’t so many of them saying the same sort of thing, all of the darned time, that’s all! :-)

  27. As an occasional visitor; looks like you should suspend any serious comment or predictions until after the Local/European elections. Polls seem to be extremely volatile and pretty worthless. Much as I love the Greens can we really envisage 8% of the vote in May ’15. Two weeks after the Farage nonsense, lets have another look at reality. One thing is clear – the Libs are a busted flush.

  28. @Rosie and Daisie

    The parallel for the LDs is 1923.

  29. @ R&D

    Surprised to see you two on here after that video of one of your distant cousins being sorted by a cat hit the news. Thought you might lie low for a while.

    Definitely worth AW asking the “what news stories can you remember from the last week” question just to put in perspective what the general public pick up on as compared to Euro elections or Turkey riots.

  30. ” do not agree with what they have to say, but I’ll defend to the death their right to say it”

    I’d probably stop a bit short of that myself – raised voices would be as far as I might go and I’m not sure about that.

  31. I’d write a strongly worded letter to the Guardian to defend their right to say it!

  32. SHEVII

    Daisie would pierce a cat’s eardrums with her amazing-high-pitched-yapping-trick.

    Top C ABOVE top C sustained with great energy, excitement and indignation.

  33. “I’d write a strongly worded letter to the Guardian to defend their right to say it!”

    Right – I’d probably defend that to the death Paul.

  34. By the way, are there no other words that the scots can use, beginning with BL apart from BLuff and BLuster?

    Apparently Osborne has been at that again despite govt minister[S] [un-named] confirming that we WILL share the pound as a swap for Faslane [which the Scots say they won’t agree to.***}

    Disgraceful I call it

    *** I am wondering if that is bluff and bluster though.

  35. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead drops one to two points: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

  36. Paul H-J

    there may well be a number of UKIP MPs elected. If they retain mid 20s, which cannot be excluded, that number could be sufficient to deliver a Con-UKIP coalition.

    But they haven’t reached the mid 20s yet. They’re still in the mid-teens in polling for Westminster- upper teens for the ‘pure’ online pollsters, lower teens for phone polls. The higher ratings come from Euro polls, but there are clearly people who support them only in the Euros but not elsewhere, just as there are people who only support the Greens in the Euros.

    It will be interesting to see if UKIP get a boost in the polls after the elections as happened in 2009 and last year. I suspect they might but it won’t be as dramatic.

  37. Thanks RM
    Looking like ‘Amber’s word’ already and still a week to the EPs.

  38. LD’s on 8. I guess the remaining members and councillors must have been hoping that would pick up a bit nearer the election.

    If they can hold onto some councillors (like they have in some by-elections) that will placate many, but if not I wonder how keen members will be to campaign in 2015.

  39. @mrnameless

    “Ipsos Mori:

    IN 54% (+10%)
    OUT 37% (-11%)”

    I assume the remaining 9% were for ‘shaking it all about’? :))

    @All

    So four polls since Sunday. Leads of 1, 0, 3, 2. Average of 1.5%

  40. Several have questioned my comments on the potential for UKIP to win seats at the GE. Let me explain why I think this is a real possibility.

    Firstly, I am not a UKIP supporter. But I do recognise the threat they pose to both Con and Lab.

    Secondly, while there is a difference between UKIP VI for Euros vs Westminster, the current levels being recorded for Westminster are as high as UKIP were recording in the run up to the local elections last year. Last April UKIP were averaging mid teens in the polls. But, in the county Council elections they were scoring much more than that in the places where they actually stood. Since then we have routinely seen UKIP achieve mid 20s from a standing start in council by-elections all around the country.

    On that basis, I see no reason why UKIP could not achieve 25% or more in each region in England. There will be at least a couple of regions where they may gain over 30%.

    We also have local elections at the same time. Even if many who vote UKIP for Euros may vote differently at local level, they are still likely to win a considerable number of council seats. In some cases they could find themselves with sufficient seats to take control in coalition with other parties.

    This will undoubtedly give UKIP a far stronger local activist base going into the next GE than was the case in 2010.

    In my view we cannot assume that the 2009-2010 pattern of UKIP support falling back by two-thirds will be repeated next year. If UKIP go into the GE with overall support in the high teens, then there will be seats where their vote will be reaching 30%. In a four (or five) way contest that can be enough to win. I cannot predict where that may happen. But we will have some indicators after the elections next week.

    To some extent, this is no different from the historic position for the Liberals / LDs. They have never polled above 25% in a post-war election – and often far lower. Yet they still manage to pick up seats at Westminster. That is usually because they have picked up enough localised support, often from protest votes, to oust a weak or unpopular incumbent. The same could well become true for UKIP, in particular in those areas where they have a body of local Councillors.

    We don’t and can’t know how much support UKIP will manage to retain over the next year, or where. But it strikes me as foolish to believe that it will all evaporate and/or revert to the established parties.

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