Following on from the ICM and Ashcroft polls yesterday showing small Conservative leads, tonight’s YouGov poll for Sun shows Labour and Conservative neck and neck on 34%. The full topline is CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%


127 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 15”

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  1. Some on here have concluded the anti-Clegg PPB was responsible for this. I can’t really see on what basis they think that since it probably wasn’t viewed by many and the LD score hasn’t gone up.

    What we’re not sure of is why the Labour VI has dropped.

  2. I don’t think it was the PPB. I think it is the Euro voting intention leaking into GE and very unfortunately when people’s minds are concentrated on a vote they won’t vote for EM as Ken, TOH, Colin have been saying. I think they might be right.

    So will EM give up the leadership for the good of Labour?
    If so who could replace him?

    Because if this is a year out and the Cons really haven’t brought the big guns yet – Labour are sadly doomed.

  3. Good Late evening all.
    I did tell everyone this in 2011.

    Labour has only got rid of a leader once, post World War Two- he won three GE’s.

  4. Couper2802,

    Yep. Agreed.

  5. I don’t see this can be about elections and EM as he isn’t standing in any elections this month.

    I still believe it’s weird results due to the Euros, which tends to throw up weird results.

  6. The decline in Labour lead seems to have coincided with their attacks on Clegg and the coalition and its personal nature. Plus Miliband trumpeting his intellectual purity and superiority and certainty.

  7. I wonder if it has played it’s part the pub but I also wonder if the Intectually superior comment may also have had affect…….no one likes a smug smart as after all

  8. A comment that came across a bit badly is not enough to shift two million votes overnight, surely?

  9. “We’re alright” people buy people

  10. Sure the labour poll has dropped, but the tory poll hasn’t significantly risen either.

    A large – and increasing – proportion of the electorate now vote postally, and those who have had their ballot papers will have seen that there are a plethora of parties, not just three or four. [I normally vote in person, but go on holiday tomorrow so had to get a postal; the ballot paper is like a sheet of wallpaper!].

    So, could it be that the tory vote was already down to “core”, but labour’s floaters have floated away with one or two million having seen already, on a real ballot paper, that there are other choices?

  11. Some people were predicting headless chickens and meltdowns and regime changes after the Euros.
    It seems headless chickens may have invaded UKPR before a vote has been cast!

  12. PS set the dogs on those chickens, I say.

  13. Oh don’t get me wrong I predict ukip 1st lab 2nd cons 3rd in the euros but I think labour have more to worry about in a years time up until about a week ago I would have said labour winning by about 20 votes now I am not so sure

  14. @Guymonde
    It’s not just UKPR! The comments on articles, op eds etc – from people on all sides – some of them are outrageous!!!

  15. Miserable Old Git

    That’s an interesting theory.

    If people register for a postal vote for all elections automatically (is that how the system works?) then more people will have seen a ballot paper for a PR election than ever before.

    This would be especially true in England, where only those who voted in the last EU election will have seen one.

    In Scotland and Northern Ireland (though GB polls ignore the latter) only Westminster elections are wholly FPTP, so the exception rather than the rule.

    It’s at least possible that the decline of the main UK parties in Scotland is due to ballot papers showing a wider range of parties – but I don’t know of any research to confirm such a proposition.

  16. @ OldNat

    You can register for automatic postal, and I think that’s what most people do (certainly my parents and parents-in-law, when they were alive, did so). On purely anecdotal evidence, I think this is becoming increasingly the voting method of choice for the grey generation.

    I’m only 60, so not quite there yet!

  17. I vote by post at 35 mainly because I spend the day bugging others tondo the same……oh yeah popular career choice party activist

  18. Well it’s either the PPB, or the UKIP effect having some special potency due it being a real election rather than just an opinion poll: especially it being an PR election where 3rd/4th parties can win seats and thus representation. GE polling has been dragged along due to one of these.

    Low thirties is very low for the highest polling party in an opinion poll.

  19. I wouldn’t read any more into it than just overspill from UKIP’s attraction as a protest vote for the Euros.

  20. MOG

    Ta. I like the old tradition of popping into the polling station to make my X in the box – I’m usually there as a polling agent [1] anyway.

    There are unusual elections like the one next Thursday where I haven’t yet decided how (or whether) to cast a tactical vote. Waiting till the last minute makes more sense.

    [1] Officially, a polling agent is there to prevent “personation”. The only time I’ve been involved in such was in 1974 stopping a local councillor from bully-ing [2] a polling clerk into accepting a vote from someone I (and I’m damn sure he) knew wasn’t a voter.

    [2] I have a deep and abiding detestation of automod!

  21. Where I live, [ well norf of Watford ], the UKIP ‘dog-whistle’ campaign to scare folk about the forrinerz who are after their jobs is having an effect and weakening Labour support in their traditionally strong areas. Nowt to do with Ed, everything to do with jobs, and the lack of them.

    Many areas oop norf have never recovered from the loss of jobs in coalmines, steelworks, textiles factories, and many other jobs. In my patch folk who would normally vote Lab are not convinved that Ed & Co will do anything to create new job opportunities, nor do they believe that any party will do much to stop ‘outsiders’ worsening their lot generally, not to mention worsening the prospects for their kids and grandkids.

    Nothing much has changed around here in decades, except perhaps the rise of UKIP. I am no fan of theirs but I do think they are here to stay and they are changing the political landscape. Blues have far more to fear than reds .

    I expect polls to revert to their previous norm after the Euro thingy is done and dusted. IMHO of course.

  22. Postal voting seems wide open to fraud. My friend in rental accommodation had quite a few voting papers for previous tenants turn up. I can imagine that happening in many households with regular turnovers of tenants, and quite a few unscrupulous people returning those votes.

    On the subject of renting – Labour’s amendment to ban the ridiculous fees to tenants was defeated by the Lib Dems and Tories. Lettings Agents have given hassle and unfair fees to many I know who rent. One ludicrous one last month was a £250 charge to continue renting after a year for a £10 credit check. An utter scandal those fees are. tenants can’t afford that to renew, and if they leave they have to pay excessive departure fees.

    If Labour can get this message out to the increasing number of people renting privately they will have a vote winner. The mainstream press wont cover it much as its dominated by the wealthy and home owners and the phenomenon has passed many by, so this will have to be done on the ground.

  23. Ozwold – it may be UKIP that has pushed Labour into this private rental move. It’s the kind of thing badly affecting working class people that New Labour would barely acknowledge in the recent past, much less do much about. That has fueled resentment and UKIPs rise in Labour heartlands.

  24. Thanks to Wings, I’ve been able to see that Labour PPB (as well as some others from parties that hate foreigners).

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-youre-better-together-with/

    If that Lab PPB has been shown in Scotland, I haven’t seen it. There was nothing in it to offend my sensibilities – except that it wasn’t funny.

    That, however, is a serious crime!

  25. Ed
    I agree. We need a social housing building program on the scale of the post-war boost. Labour should have done this when they were in power, but they didn’t I am still not convinced they will do any better when EdM becomes PM.

  26. Gotta turn in. Nite nite all.

  27. Ed

    ” It’s the kind of thing badly affecting working class people”

    I’m fairly ignorant about the private rented sector, and there will be differences between the various parts of the UK anyway as different legislatures have different controls.

    However, in England, does the perceived problem exist throughout that legislative area, or is it a particular problem in London and SE England, where there is the greatest pressure on housing?

  28. Night all must get some sleep I do enjoy these tete au tete though

  29. The more I think about it, the more I think this is a tribute to the UKIP Euro campaign. They are really going to town with posters (which I know are not always the most effective tool).

    The posters can be viewed here http://www.ukip.org/ukip_national_billboard_campaign and I think the first two posters, and especially the second of them, are probably potent catnip for traditional socially conservative, anti-immigrant Labour voters. Portraying immigration as a trick played by rich people on the downtrodden poor is quite clever, electorally speaking, because traditionally immigration is an untouchable issue for the left and so there is plenty of elbow room there. It also plays well with anti-Cameroon ex-Tory UKippers.

    By suggesting that the PM’s relatively relaxed attitudes to immigration are not the result of liberalism but a consequence of his allegiance to the wealthy elite, UKIP have found a way to hoover up.

    I have always thought that the UKIP surge will subside, perhaps to around 7-8%, by the GE, so I expect Labour to get back a couple of percentage points. Even if the Tories also get back a couple of points from UKIP, that still leaves Labour well set to be largest party, and a Tory majority virtually impossible.

    It still seems extremely likely that Cameron will no longer be PM this time next year.

  30. Thought I’d have a look around to see if the vote by the Tories and Lib Dems this afternoon against banning letting agency fees was reported anywhere. Not on the BBC, not the Guardian or Telegraph. Sky does though.

    It’s something that affects 7 million people, and which many renters loath. You’d expect it to get a bit of coverage. It affects many young people. Talk to people in their 20s and this subject angers many – more than most other issues. Many who are sick of paying excessive registration fees, credit check fees, deposits, and then agency fees and sometimes a separate guarantor check. But if no one covers it then Labour won’t benefit from its stance.

  31. Presumably, if letting agents can’t charge fees to tenants, they will charge them to landlords, which may well just push up rents.

    So far as I’m aware, the country’s letting agents are not amongst the Super-Rich? (Happy to be contradicted if they actually are – but when my wife watches reality shows on the subject they always seem a bit beleaguered – and not exactly ermine-clad).

  32. OLDNAT – I have friends and post-grads who are in university across the country and most have complaints about the fees. Not only are initial fees very high (and seemingly more and more added in recent years as agencies realise they can get away with it such is the shortage) but so are renewals, leaving fees, and even if someone moves out they then try to make all tenants pay again for credit checks, guarantors checks etc at 10 times + the cost.

    Scotland got rid and I don’t think the market has collapsed there. Glasgow and Edinburgh seem ok.

    You’re not alone in not knowing much about the private rental market and i don’t blame you for that – many don’t as it wasn’t a huge part of UK housing in previous decades and I suspect that’s why it isn’t covered too heavily in the press. Most young people though will have horror stories and those with children in the age range 18-30.

    Ozwold – I have little faith in Labour too. Their record was terrible in office and their targets for house building are incredibly unambitious. 200k by 2020. 200k a year is below just about every year from 1950-2000.

  33. Another interesting Poll. I also think polling levels will revert post the Euros but I think the danger for labour is that once those ultra loyal, generational Voters go elsewhere once, to UKIP or wherever, they are more likely to do it again. I still think the Class warfare angle was also a factor, why make yourself seem as the negative, divisive nasty party? Alexander has to take the blame for that.

  34. Ed

    Thanks (both for info & for understanding my ignorance!)

  35. Neil A – It would likely lead to an increase in rents but I doubt to the same amount as the fees. Plus if there’s an increase in rent then at least the costs will be staggered. Currently hundreds of pounds have to be paid upfront. This leads to high borrowing needed to move. Plus even if the move falls through, even if not the renters fault, then they wont often get most of the money in fees back. Here’s a good overview from shelter – http://goo.gl/zIE9z5

    It’s not uncommon for someone to leave a place and pay the letting agency a fee for doing so, then have to find 1 months (sometimes 2) rent in advance, 1 months deposit, and the myriad fees in one lump sum. The tenant could be paying £1000 or more before moving in.

  36. When I moved into a rental I was a bit shocked to be asked for fees by the agent because I remember (perhaps falsely) that charging fees to tenants was outlawed during my student days (early 70s)
    The young chap who found me the flat was very good at his job and a nice guy, but he remarked to me that he had made £1000 in commission so far that month: not bad, as he put it, for a 20-year-old.
    My landlord was letting for the first time and spent the next two years trying to get rid of Foxton’s (for it was they) as managing agents because they took a sizeable chunk of his rent for doing nothing.
    Fortunately by the time I moved on he had succeeded in getting rid of them, so we had a very grown-up and stress-free discussion about deposits etc.

  37. For month read week.

  38. Foxton’s are notorious. The head honcho was in the rich list this past week with a fortune of £1.08 billion. According to this article from a year ago -http://goo.gl/A3Z7UQ

    “Foxtons charges new tenants £420 as an “administration fee”, £210 to change a tenant’s name on the contract and £96 to renew terms”. I’d expect there’s more there too in the fine print when it comes to sign.

    I think what you did is actually illegal – that is coming to an agreement with your landlord after your tenancy through an agency ends, and then continuing it by-passing the lettings agent. Sounds crazy I know but I recall reading something along those lines from a credible source when looking into it.

  39. One might expect immigration to have further impact on VI given its salience and prominence of UKip in the Euros.

    Indeed, some in Labour have been worried about this for a while it seems and hence wanted Mili to offer that EU referendum.

    Over at the NS, this is rearing its head again for Lab with the fear of coming third in the EU elections…

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/labour-danger-finishing-third-european-elections

    “Were the principal party of opposition to be beaten by the Tories and Ukip next week (as it was in 2009), it would send shockwaves through the PLP. Those inside and outside of the shadow cabinet who demanded that Ed Miliband promise an in/out EU referendum would claim vindication. As I’ve reported before, Miliband has no intention of changing his current stance: that a vote will only be held in the unlikely event of a further transfer of powers to Brussels. He (rightly) regards the issue of Europe as a distraction from the defining question of how to raise living standards and fears the consequences of being forced to hold a vote as prime minister. But he will encounter significant resistance if Labour is beaten by the eurosceptics and better off outers on 22 May.

    As I revealed yesterday, some shadow cabinet ministers are unhappy at his failure to talk more about how Labour would reform the EU, which they regarded as a quid pro quo for the non-referendum pledge (which a majority of members initially opposed). Unless Miliband shifts his emphasis soon, they will regard this promise as increasingly worthless.”

  40. I agree with others that have said that drop in the Labour score is partly (at least) a result of the Euros being so close.

    The tory vote is still stuck in the low 30’s,pretty muchtheir low watermark, and the LibDems remain stuck on single figures.

    Some of this is indeed the UKIP effect, but, I also think that some Labour supporters are dipping their toe elsewhere as well. I noticed the Greens got a 10% score, pushing the LibDems into 5th place in one euro poll – that’s a pretty high score for them.

    I predict a small,John Major style majority for Labour at the next general election, barring the Ukraine thing getting really scary or other ground moving event (pun intended).

    Some of the UKIP vote with drift back to the big two, and the Labour voters flirting with the Greens and other small parties will return to the fold once again.

  41. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 13th May – Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%; APP -23

    without us Red Dems, Lab would be on 24% according to this poll.

    2010 Lab have moved in descending order to UKIP, Cons, SNP, Other, LD’s and Greens

    Non Con 2010 LD’s have gone to UKIP and Greens

    It is exciting though, I have no idea what the actual results will be next Thursday.

  42. Good morning all

    Just to pick up on something I was saying early yesterday evening about Lab/SNP figures (YG showing strong Labour lead in Scotland), if I read the latest (overnight) YG correctly (and on past experience that’s not to be assumed by any means) SNP have jumped 7 points in two days, with Lab dropping 3. Anyone out there able to explain?

    Have a good day, all.

  43. Question for the day: What has happened to the Labour lead?

    Just a few suggestions based on looking at YG results over last 3 weeks and a little bit of calculation

    1) LabourID is losing a little to UKIP

    2) LibDemID is losing a little less to Labour but..

    3) LibDem ID is also losing a little more to UKIP, balancing the the gain they made in (2).

    4) OtherID voters have swung a little toward Con and away from UKIP; otherwise they are not changing (this is where the calculation came in)

    5) the split of ConID voters hasn’t changed.

    What all this means is as clear as mud to me!

  44. A persistence of CON and LAB running neck and neck in the polls over the summer might change the political landscape significantly, even though (given the in-built bias towards LAB in the electoral system), it would lead to a narrow LAB win at the GE. In particular:
    a) it would focus voters in Scotland to consider that one of the consequences of voting no on Sept 18th would be the significant possibility of the continuation of Tory rule over Scotland.
    b) it would focus LAB on the need to find a new charismatic indigenous leader well in advance of the GE who could be a credible PM and win back any working-class voters who are drifting to UKIP.

  45. @Daodao

    b) it would focus LAB on the need to find a new charismatic indigenous leader well in advance of the GE who could be a credible PM and win back any working-class voters who are drifting to UKIP.

    That is seriously offensive….

  46. It will be interesting to see the Ashcroft Marginal constituency polls.

    I think what might be happening here is Labour losing a percentage or two to UKIP ,while those Tories who have already found the unremittingly Nihilistic and xenophobic message attractive have already switched.

    However, if Labour lose a percentage or two in their core constituencies it doesn’t actually effect the outcome in a GE at all.

    I do however find it very depressing that polling suggests people will vote for UKIP even though they thing they are racist ( I don’t) and that 40% of the Population think Torture is a legitimate method of obtaining information!

  47. @John B – if you’re looking at the Scottish figures only from a single national poll, you’ve got a small sample whose figures will be highly volatile.

  48. @ Catmanjeff

    I am not being offensive. However, I don’t think it is helpful to LAB to be in complete denial (due to political correctness) about one of the major (unspoken) reasons why their current leader is lagging markedly behind the party itself in opinion poll ratings. I come from the same ethnic background as EM and know that my surname on its own can antagonise some people.

  49. There was a report the other day in the Times about a proposal under consideration by Labour for motorists to be charged VED and for fuel, based on their wealth. Apparently using smart technology and a link between the IR and the DVLA the price you would pay at the pump would vary according to your wealth.
    Wealth of course was not defined, and quite apart from the fact that the idea would be totally unworkable and would lead to an awful lot of zero income 17 year olds suddenly becoming the registered keepers of Range Rovers & Porche’s, this kind of envy led idea will just loses votes by the bucketload.
    [Snip]
    This kind of [policy] (like road pricing a few years ago) is what will drive the modern equivalent of Mondeo man away from Labour and they are the floating voters key to the result of the election.
    With 12 months to go, A switch of just 3% from lab to con would give the Tories a 6% lead over labour. It’s a big hill but as eminent pollsters have said already, it is not an impossible one.

  50. Daodao

    My Ancestry was Jewish Italian and I am dark skinned and of Asian appearance .While serving as a Met Police Officer I was frequently called a “P*** Bastard” because of my appearance.

    Fortunately the Met didn’t dispense with my services because certain members of the public didn’t like how I looked!

    By the way having been Born in Brixton does that make me Indigenous or just lucky!

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