The daily YouGov poll for the Sun tonight has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Putting them all together today’s four Westminster polls are:

YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%
Populus – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%
Ashcroft – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%
ICM/Guardian – CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 15%

Two very small Labour leads, two very small Conservative leads. Levels of Conservative support are actually pretty similar across these polls, as is the level of UKIP support (though other pollsters show contrasting figures), there’s the usual higher level of Lib Dem support from ICM and there’s significant variation in the level of Labour support shown. What is consistent across all four polls is that Labour and the Conservatives are very close to one another in support. In terms of narrative and political impact a poll showing a one point Labour lead looks very different to one showing a one point Conservative lead. Statistically though really isn’t much difference between them in polls with a margin of error of about three points. On today’s polls the parties are looking neck-and-neck, let’s see if it stays that way…and what political impact those polls showing a Tory lead have…


226 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14”

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  1. “I think we all know how this will go down.”

    Do you?

  2. Roger H

    It’s been evident in every election since 1983. Though you may trot out the usual figures – John Major didn’t win a record number of votes because of his outstanding leadership or charisma – he won them because of fear of Kinnock winning.

  3. “Though you may trot out the usual figures”

    Well I wouldn’t want to undermine your arguments with facts.

  4. “Do you?”

    Not the final result, but I’ve known for some time that as the election comes closer the polls would narrow and the Cons may even take a lead, that much was obvious even in the polldrums.

    As someone rightly pointed out there hasn’t really been an event to shift the polls, but I feel it’s due to the fact it was marked on the news quite a lot this week that the election is only 1 year away, this may have focused peoples minds more.

    Labour has a small if any lead at the moment, but there is a trio of bad news comes coming their way.

    The economy continues to recover, and as it becomes deeper rooted, people will begin to feel it more, at the moment a sizeable amount don’t feel it, but as it takes a hold more will.

    There will be an unravelling of the UKIP vote sometimes between Newark and the General, and while some are former Labour and will return home, as Labour have been so so so keen on pointing out this past few years, the proportion of tories is much much larger.

    Finally, the Lib Dems, as the coalition comes to a close and the election draws near the 2010 deserters will feel a tug back to the motherland as the coalition ends, and the lib dems become increasingly hostile towards the tories.

  5. “Not the final result, but I’ve known for some time that as the election comes closer the polls would – – etc etc”
    ——————
    If only we were all gifted with such amazing foresight. What will win the 1935 at Southwell tonight ?

  6. Anthony can pack up until May 8th 2015 because the result of the 2015 GE is known.

    Lol

  7. mrnameless

    There has been polling on that – can’t remember the figures but Labour, Tory and Lib Dem politicians (in that order) were slightly more trusted than only one other profession – journalists.

    That’s very unfair.

    They beat estate agents as well.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x00zdu1sm5/YG-trackers-Trust-October2013.pdf

  8. I must say, I really, really enjoy this website, especially most of the comments posted on here too.

    It is far from my intention to ‘put a cat among the pigeons’ here, to coin a phrase, but the only certainty there is with the current and future situation with the Polls, is uncertainty!

    While we may be able to analyse and extrapolate, we are arguably living in unprecedented times: for a start we have the first formal, peacetime Coalition Government in over 70 or so years: comparison with the past 30 or so years, is therefore, to me, not hugely beneficial.

    The fact that both Labour and the Conservatives are both polling in the low 30’s, with a large contingent for ‘Others’ indicates reinforcement of the long term trend of the decline in ‘Two Party’ politics. It may also be an indication of a sentiment among much of the electorate towards both Labour and Conservative especially as ‘a plague on all your houses’ to borrow a phase.

    As I said in the beginning, the only certainty for present and the period in the run up to the General Election is uncertainty. One thing is for sure: we live in very interesting times!

  9. I dont actually believe these polls that have the tories winning. I think the pollsters and the media want to perceive it as a close election. Which it is not. I think labour has a 10 point lead but the pollsters and the media want a big close election. I just dont see the conservatives winning a majority nor being the largest party. The problem for labour in my opinion is not offering the folks a say on the EU. I’m telling you they have to rethink that policy and fast. They can not play it safe. They should win the next election really, and I think they will but they have to offer that referendum quick. I DONT SEE THE CONSERVATIVES WINNING ANYTHING MAYBE IN THEIR DREAMS. This is a liberal country and that is why they could not win a majority in 2010

  10. @MiM

    “Finally, the Lib Dems, as the coalition comes to a close and the election draws near the 2010 deserters will feel a tug back to the motherland as the coalition ends, and the lib dems become increasingly hostile towards the tories.”

    So as the LibDem deserters become more hostile to the Tories they’ll return to the fold and waste their vote on the LibDems instead of continuing to support Labour who have the only realistic chance of beating them.

    There’s some strange logic in there somehwere I fancy.

  11. I didn’t say I knew the final result, or the full impact of the 3 factors, but everyone can see these 3 have been coming down the pipeline for a long time, hence why they were saying Labour needed a bigger lead than the 5-6 points it had. Now it looks like Labour could face this trio of despair for them, with an even smaller lead.

  12. “So as the LibDem deserters become more hostile to the Tories they’ll return to the fold and waste their vote on the LibDems instead of continuing to support Labour who have the only realistic chance of beating them.
    There’s some strange logic in there somehwere I fancy.”

    Not at all

    Some may indeed take your view and stick with Lab

    But this 12% or so that voted Liberal in 2010 then deserted the party, mostly to Labour, knew in 2010 that Labour was the best placed to stop the tories, but still voted Lib, not out of the realms of possibility that they’d do the same again if they see Clegg attack Cameron/tories.

  13. The problem with the demand for guaranteed commitments from Pfizer is that they will be met, will meet commercial interests, but will be too short term and too substantive in the transfer or ending of research capacity and intellectual property, thus of UK long-term wealth and employment but also of science.
    Talk of 5 years, or even 10 years guarantees is absurd. This is, in Macmillan’s phase, giving away not only the family silver, but also of the hallmark, hugely important in world, not just British interests.
    To illustrate both these aspects of the threat to the UK medical science profession and its influence , the fight against onchocerciasis – the cause or river blindness- mainly of acute and long-term concern in West Africa – has only recently seen major breakthroughs. This after ninety years of research based substantially on the work of scientists at the Kumba Onchocerciasis Research Centre in Cameroon, founded in 1925.

  14. MitM
    OTOH they didn’t switch because they disliked Clegg, but but because they are social democrats, and will stay that way.

  15. Reports that AD has been demoted at BT, and replaced by DA.

    A nice symmetry-but will the No campaign be any more successful ?

  16. Which DA? Yellow DA or Red DA?

  17. We are repeatedly told that “The economy continues to recover”. Reminds me of the Russian political joke, of which there are several variants, but this is my fave. –

    Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev, Leonid Brezhnev and Mikhail Gorbachev are sitting on a train. The train stops suddenly and doesn’t move for several hours. Passengers are complaining loudly and demanding a solution. The four leaders of the Soviet Union discussed how best to do deal with it.

    Stalin says “shoot the train driver”

    Khrushchev says “No, we should rehabilitate and reform the train driver”

    Gorbachev says “No comrades, we should all get out and push”.

    Brezhnev says “cover all the windows with curtains or blinds – then tell the passengers that the train is moving.”

  18. MitM

    “But this 12% or so that voted Liberal in 2010 then deserted the party, mostly to Labour, knew in 2010 that Labour was the best placed to stop the tories, but still voted Lib, not out of the realms of possibility that they’d do the same again if they see Clegg attack Cameron/tories.”

    The coming election is entirely different to what happened in 2010. Many of those who voted LibDem were former Labour voters who deserted because they felt the LibDems were more “left wing” to use a bit of shorthand; those who had left over the Iraq War for example. They were not expecting their leadership to go into coalition with an even bigger enemy, the Tories. Now they know better and have not forgiven Clegg et al.

    Yes, there may be some return to the fold in areas where only the LibDems can beat the Tories, but in other seats I can’t see many, if any, of those who deserted and have remained with Labour up till now being fooled by Clegg opposing the Tories in the dying months of the Coalition.

  19. MrN

    The Red one.

  20. The bookies are now trimming the Tories – 6/5 for most seats and 3/1 for an overall majority are still available but I would suggest won’t be for much longer.

  21. Dont forget the Tories need a decent lead on Labour to win the election; the draw in the opinion poll would not be enough…

  22. Every single bookie has Labour odds on to win. Still, what do they know?

  23. 1. Will some/all of that support return at a GE? Most ‘protest’ votes do. But are UKIP different?

    They Weren’t different in 2010 Polling around 16% in the Euros in 2009 this dropped to 3% at the GE

    If the majority of recent UKIP gains have been from Labour,the figures don’t really support this, then presumably the majority will return for the GE.

    Lets wait and see what happens in the real vote in a Couple of Weeks time.

  24. The recent polls seem to have brought out a certain type of posting that makes me nostalgic for polldrums, already.

    I also believe that whether times are interesting must be a subjective view. I think don’t think they are, or if they are, then they always have been. I wonder if the phrase could be made to trigger auto mod?

    We had our Labour leaflet this afternoon, at last, which is thus missing the mark as we voted yesterday. I have wondered whether this is the post office’s fault or the party’s?

  25. @Norbold
    “It is a good photo of him though. He looks serious and statesmanlike, don’t you think?”

    Maybe Labour’s fortunes will turn up when a Lib Dem leaflet arrives on doorsteps plastered with pictures of a beaming Nick Clegg.

  26. @Man in the middle.

    What, exactly, are you in the middle of?

  27. @Mr Nameless

    According to this website, the Conservatives are standing down in three Sheffield LD-Lab marginals they previously contested and thus giving the LDs a clear run. Do you know any more about the local background to this?

    http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/05/nick-cleggs-local-party-in-desperate-election-pact-with-tories/

  28. Wow, exciting days; we’re out of polldrums and the sails seem set fair for the blues.
    Or are they?
    Watch this space.

  29. @Pressman

    On Paddy Power (which is the one I have been tracking for a while, you actually get better odds (11/4) on a tory OM than you dis in Jan/Feb (5/2) and you can get 7/2 elsewhere.
    Personally I think Lab OM at 11/8 is a much better bet.
    But you’re right, there has been an infinitesimal shift in the odds over the last week.

  30. I’ve just noticed that my unfortunate ‘think don’t think’ typo may have originated unwished-for amusement.

    I think Mr Miliband’s photo is OK, but I do wonder why people think these things are so important. Has polling been done on physical impressions, anyone know?

  31. As it happens, I do.

    First it’s important to acknowledge that this is probably not a conspiracy. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in Sheffield have long held each other in deep contempt and it would be strange at the very least for them to co-operate now when they didn’t in 2011 or 2012. Describing it as a desperate election pact is plainly unlikely.

    However, the situation within the Conservatives has been a state of slow, painful death here. According to a local councillor I spoke to recently, the Sheffield Conservatives are primarily composed of the very old (those who were Sheffield Tories before Thatcher made them anathema) and the very young (mostly university students).

    The older Tories are dying off or defecting to UKIP, and it’s meant that organisation of the party falls to the youngsters, many of whom are not local, have no experience of running a campaign and may be occupied with campaigning in their home seats. As such, they’ve managed to mess up and not either get the required nominations or submit the paperwork on time.

    It’s a mixed blessing for Labour in those wards, since while it means the anti-Labour Tory vote may go to the Lib Dems, it allows them to portray the LDs as the “Coalition Choice” candidate and solidify the Greens etc. behind them.

    Also in Hillsborough the Conservative candidate was disqualified after one of his nominations later signed the UKIP nomination paper.

    To look at Fulwood and Dore and Totley (as I have done while leafleting in utter futility) you would not believe they were safe Lib Dem wards. The houses there are the biggest I’ve ever seen and I was getting to the point where I’d assign “Labour voters” status to any house that didn’t have a BMW or a Jaguar outside. It goes some way to explaining the antipathy between Tories and Lib Dems in Sheffield – the Lib Dems are taking and holding solidly wards which the Tories feel are theirs by right.

  32. Valerie
    The days are not exciting, nor are the times interesting. We need a poll to settle it.

  33. Presumably we can expect one of Ashcroft’s new daily polls any time soon. I’m predicting a LibDem surge.

  34. “Also in Hillsborough the Conservative candidate was disqualified after one of his nominations later signed the UKIP nomination paper.”

    Would the UKIP candidate also be disqualified? Could be a useful way of sabotaging your opponents’ campaigns.

  35. RogerH,

    Apparently not. The “valid” nomination goes to the first party signed for, which in this case was UKIP (my post was wrong). It does highlight the importance of getting your papers in as early as possible.

  36. @ozwald

    Nice one!

  37. RogerH – he’s releasing them on Mondays at 4pm

  38. Thanks, Anthony. Somehow got it into my head that they were to be daily rather than weekly.

  39. I am suprised that Alistair Darling has apparently been sacked. True he want very visible but given No are well ahead obviously the campaign is going well. Unless private polling is telling them different. Annoying to me is that apparently it was DC that sacked Darling – which means that the Cons are running the BT campaign.

  40. @ Couper2802

    I am surprised that Alistair Darling has apparently been sacked.
    —————–
    I don’t believe that’s the case. Jim Murphy is tweeting that it isn’t true.

  41. @ Couper

    For the avoidance of doubt (caused by my bad grammar), I believe you’re surprised but I don’t believe AD has been sacked.

  42. @copier2802

    Also rumours about the results of an Ipsos Mori poll being held back by BT. Questions being asked in the HofC about it as reported in the Herald.

  43. @Amber Star

    I don’t know why I ever pay attention to stories, about Labour, whose source is the Daily Mail. But I fall for it.

  44. Maninthemiddle

    But this 12% or so that voted Liberal in 2010 then deserted the party, mostly to Labour, knew in 2010 that Labour was the best placed to stop the tories, but still voted Lib, not out of the realms of possibility that they’d do the same again if they see Clegg attack Cameron/tories.

    This is pretty much nonsense (as were some of the replies to you). The main reason is that “Labour was the best placed to stop the tories” simply wasn’t true in many constituencies and is irrelevant to Lib Dem voters who had other priorities.

    In fact the ex-Lib Dems actually form a number of distinct groups each with their own motivation and behaviour.

    [A] Those now choosing Conservative – about 11% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010. Most of these will be normally Conservative voters who, dazzled by Cleggmania, voted Lib Dem tactically last time as the best way to keep/kick Labour out in their area. We know this because the vast majority started giving their VI as Tory again soon after the election happened. This tactic may have been useful in some cases, irrelevant in a lot of places (safe Labour seats) or even counter-productive if they lived in a Con/Lab marginal and were ignorant of the fact (there had been extensive boundary changes).

    In 2015 most of these people will vote Conservative, though a few may pick the Lib Dems again in those few seats where they are defending plausibly against Labour. You might expect many of them to have gone to UKIP, but it doesn’t seem to have happened.

    [B] Labour-identifying voters who voted Lib Dem tactically last time. As with the tactical Tories these switched back to Labour very soon after May 2010. Many of these have been extremely voluble about their ‘betrayal’ claiming that they will never do so again.

    In practice some may vote tactically in seats where Labour is a long way behind, but many may now see Labour with a better chance in the seat they live in and will stick with Labour.

    [C] Those disillusioned with New Labour who chose the Lib Dems as the more radical option in 2010 and maybe 2005. These will mostly have reverted to Labour, though some will pick the Greens (especially in the Euros) or may be still uncertain as to who to vote for. But except tactically or for a Lib Dem candidate they find congenial, they won’t vote Lib Dem again.

    [D] Disillusioned long-term Lib Dem voters. Some of these will also have moved to Labour and will stay there. Others will be flirting with the Greens. However many of these will be in the 20-30% of 2010 Lib Dems who currently say they don’t know how they will vote. Some will reluctantly return, others may refuse to vote and some will choose another Party, perhaps on tactical grounds.

    [E] ‘None of the Above’ voters and others with no fixed political ID or voting pattern. Many of these will also be in the DK category at the moment (they may normally be voters who decide last minute anyway) but for a lot of them UKIP will be a big attraction. Some may go to other Parties or even back to the Lib Dems, but the latter are no longer the only NOTA Party in town.

    Now apart from tactical voting and some of group [D], you will notice that few of these voters will be going back to the Lib Dems. This will particularly apply to those who have decided on Labour from [B], [C] and [D] unless they are convinced by anti-Tory tactical considerations. And if they are it won’t benefit the Conservatives -quite the opposite.

  45. rogerh

    Presumably we can expect one of Ashcroft’s new daily polls any time soon. I’m predicting a LibDem surge.

    As Anthony says they’re actually weekly, which hopefully means we’ll only have Headless Chicken Time a minimum of once a day rather than twice. However it’s worth pointing out why he is doing them. On his website he explained his plans:

    This week I will publish the first in a new series of weekly telephone polls taking us up to the big day. Over the year I will hold regular focus groups with undecided voters to add colour and context to the numbers. And at the Conservative Home Spring Conference later this month I will unveil the first round of battleground polls to track the state of play in individual marginal constituencies. My plan is to return to each set of seats – those most closely contested between the Conservatives and Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems and the Lib Dems and Labour – throughout the year to measure movement on the ground compared to the national headline figures.

    So the purpose of the weekly poll is (in part) to provide a national baseline to which simultaneous marginal polls can be compared to see what they differ by. This is why the weekly polls will be telephone ones because you have to do constituency polling by phone and you need to compare like with like.

  46. [F] Students attracted by the tuition fee promise.

  47. A lot of nonsense is talked about bookies odds. Bookies don’t necessarily know anything about the result they just try to run a balanced book so that they win whatever the result. Bookies odds are just another poll based solely on the opinions of those who bet and on average, just to complicate things, people who bet tend to lose.

  48. Bookies tend to win, though.

  49. Bookies win because they make their odds based on what people are betting. Not because they have secret underground meetings about how the events of the world are going to play out.

  50. I wonder if that election broadcast by the labour party is ed millibands “were alright” moment

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