The daily YouGov poll for the Sun tonight has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Putting them all together today’s four Westminster polls are:

YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%
Populus – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%
Ashcroft – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%
ICM/Guardian – CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 15%

Two very small Labour leads, two very small Conservative leads. Levels of Conservative support are actually pretty similar across these polls, as is the level of UKIP support (though other pollsters show contrasting figures), there’s the usual higher level of Lib Dem support from ICM and there’s significant variation in the level of Labour support shown. What is consistent across all four polls is that Labour and the Conservatives are very close to one another in support. In terms of narrative and political impact a poll showing a one point Labour lead looks very different to one showing a one point Conservative lead. Statistically though really isn’t much difference between them in polls with a margin of error of about three points. On today’s polls the parties are looking neck-and-neck, let’s see if it stays that way…and what political impact those polls showing a Tory lead have…


226 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14”

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  1. This looks like a Mili-meltdown, I guess the public didn’t buy the hype. :-)

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  2. His superior ” intellectual self-confidence “will see him through Ken. :-)

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  3. Another Labour majority.

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  4. A few months ago on here we were treated to the, Ed is a strategic genius, line, recently we had the self-glorification you speak of, I’m surprised that Labour aren’t hitting the high forties. :-)

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  5. I see these results (forget all this churn stuff) as 2 Lab to UKIP, 2 to Green. Roughly, sort of thing, because Con are stuck in the low thirties.

    So yes, as Colin suggested I might write, we need a couple more like this to believe it’s a definitive change, and then we will need to see what happens after the Euros.

    It’s the Con vote I’m watching. It’s a rock solid third of voters and always has been, in more than a decade. How many floaters can they pick up that Labour cannot equally pick up and what about the marginals?.

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  6. Does anyone want to see the most disturbing thing I’ve seen in some time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oczj6thd4CY

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  7. Interesting article over at the New Statesman o Labour’s campaign approach.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/lessons-labour-america

    A few choice bits…

    The first is the importance of retaining and strengthening your argument. Those who argue Labour must change course from cost-of-living are wrong. Labour’s living standards agenda resonates and must be reinforced. Labour’s cost-of-living argument is about taking action now – like freezing energy bills or taxing bank bonuses to pay for youth jobs – but also it’s about making big changes to our economy for the future – like fixing the energy market and the banking system that are ripping off hard-pressed families and small businesses.

    The cost-of-living argument is the right argument and it’s also a winning argument. On the 2012, eve of poll in the US, Mitt Romney had a 7-point lead on “best to handle the economy” and a 14-point lead on “best to handle the deficit”. But Obama had an 8-point lead on “understanding economic problems facing ordinary people” and an 11-point lead “looking out for the middle classes”.

    “Another big lesson from the US is the increasing importance of online communications in modern campaigning… Today in the UK, there are 33 million Facebook accounts – half the population. A third of adults read their news online, whilst nearly a quarter use social media for news.

    That is why every aspect of campaigning, whether online, on the doorstep or on the airwaves, should be integrated to mutually reinforce the same message. Like on the doorstep, in the digital world you can’t expect the voters to come to you. You have to build relationships and empower them. Labour is making strides here, which is why Dan Ryan, head of web-design for America 2012, recently said of Labour’s website: “This is the most innovative political splash page I’ve seen…It’s really great to see a political party really innovate in the web engagement space.”

    “Equally importantly, Obama in 2012 used online campaigning to expand the electorate, appealing to new and young voters – vital when recent figures in the UK highlight that 60 per cent of young people say they will not vote in 2015. The Obama mantra of “go local” replicated the doorstep conversation online. They used “big data’”to “ladder” voters from curiosity to activism.”

    “Obama in 2012 also prioritised attack and rebuttal (just ask Mitt Romney if he regrets writing off 47 per cent of the American public). That is why Labour is building a new operation at our Brewers Green HQ so that when the Tories and their friends in the press tell a lie about Labour, we will hit back immediately and nail that lie.”

    “We know Labour is able to to call upon thousands more activists than a Conservative Party that has seen its membership halve under David Cameron. But in the face of hugely more powerful digital communications, the right-wing-dominated print press is also no longer the force it once was. And an online focus means that big money does not perhaps bring the same comparative advantage for the Conservatives that it once did. For example, an “infographic” is basically the same as an poster on a billboard, but it costs a lot less and far more people can see it on social media.”

    …more in the article… Axelrod etc.

    So basically, it’s a case of online engagement, reinforcing the cosg-of-living message, and a rebuttal unit. I’m intrigued as to how well the online/community engagement/big data thing is going to work over here, and how it’ll stack up against traditional media…

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  8. Oh and Labour have done another PPB. It’s not about Europe but it’s fairly positive and actually features Miliband this time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ebs0maRW9I

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  9. Left some quotes off… all the big paras should be in quotes…

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  10. It’s way to early to see anything in this as the general trend over months has been a all be it smaller Labour lead.

    As Anthony has warned often enough it is all to easy to link a change to a particular event but it is fraught with danger.

    I am particularly dubious about attributing it to a Labour PPB that only Anoraks watched.

    As I said yesterday, between the Euro’s, Locals, summer (World Cup/Commonwealth Games) and then the Referendum the polls could well be all over the place for months.

    Still if the Tories do establish some kind of lead ironically for Cameron it could make Independence a little more likely.

    It will be interesting to see how some Tories MP’s react when seat predictions show they could win without Scotland’s 40 Labour MP’s.

    Like it or not the prospect of another Tory Government does seem to increase the Yes vote!

    Peter.

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  11. @Carfrew – re the online stuff, I get lots of emails from Ed M, Ed Balls, and lots of other senior Labour people. These are all on the issues targeted for that day, and have sometimes been rapid responses to news items. I can’t recall the issue, but recently there was a minor Tory gaff, and within a few hours I had an email highlighting this and what was going to do instead etc.

    I’m assuming these are going to many thousands of people who have registered as a friend or whose details have got onto Labour lists in some way, but it’s clear it goes way beyond the actual party membership. It looks pretty slick, and is the most advanced electronic communication in politics I’ve come across so far.

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  12. As I saw it the PPB was only so much about the ” …you’re in the Tory party now” Clegg business. The message was in the line which followed –

    (cabinet member in retro, slightly Govesque eye-wear):
    “Yuh. Tory Party. Margaret Thatcher.”

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  13. ALEC…………It’s obviously working a treat, boring people rigid. :-)

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  14. Back to those polls. I would think that honest Tories would admit that the timing of these corssovers has to be heavily influenced by the Euros. We’ve had better economic news for some considerable time, and we had a 7 point lead and two Tory sub 30 scores at the weekend, yet now all seems different.

    That isn’t to say that this pattern might not stick, as sometimes it takes an event to unblock polls and get things moving, but it is of note that the Tory vote doesn’t appear to have moved a great deal. This ought to take some of the shine off Tory posters, as it would tend to suggest this is churn between opposition parties, rather than a bolstering of support for them.

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  15. The Labour party have a new election tactic, spam ‘em into voting. :-)

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  16. @Ken – it will be fascinating to see how well these channels work for all parties in a tight GE. It’s a very fast and cost effective way to get out a message, and we know that Obama used this type of campaign to very good effect.

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  17. “I did try and explain on here last week we were probably already in crossover and a small Tory lead even. I was mocked but now who looks silly !! ”

    You’re wasted on those mockers Wayne.

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  18. Alec,

    I’ve managed to get onto that list twice, somehow. Means Ed Miliband likes me twice as much so I get double the emails :)

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  19. ALEC….The clue is in the message, Obama had a much meatier offer, and his supporters were also driven by his natural appeal, Ed M has none of the assets that the Democrats could muster, what Labour will be communicating is nothing like as significant. IMO, of course.

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  20. @Alec

    Yes, I was wondering how far along Labour had gotten with the online thing. Being as I am out of the loop on party communications. I still haven’t had any leaflets from anyone, just the normal voting stuff…

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  21. Alec

    I get such messages on a regular basis from the Yes campaign, the SNP and the Scottish Greens. (I don’t usually bother opening any of them).

    I assumed that all parties/campaigns did that.

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  22. Looking like that first pretty negative PPB backfired somewhat…?

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  23. So 34% for both the big parties, and Lib drop to 8%, while UKIP maintain their 15%. That’s 9% going a begging to the Greens, SNP, and others. I wonder who picked up the extra 1%-3%?

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  24. @Rich

    Well they have played the man, and others do that too, so it has to be done in a way that appeals to voters. The PPB didn’t imho.

    However, it seems that the votes they gained from the LDs in 2010 are not back at the LDs, so it’s almost as if they have gone for votes from the wrong party if that PPB is supposed to be aimed at Lab to LD defectors.

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  25. A year to go both parties level pegging.
    A right wing party with little chance of gaining an government polling at 15%
    A general consensus that they take most votes from the centre right conservatives
    A poll showing that 47% of them may change. Their mind before.the general election who argubably take more votes from the conservatives
    53% of labour voters who have yet to decide if they will vote labour
    I think I may need to reconsider my prediction of a labour ok of 20seats

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