Following the surprise Ashcroft poll earlier on today ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is also showing a lead for the Conservative party. Their topline figures are CON 33%(+1), LAB 31%(-6!), LDEM 13%(+1), UKIP 15%(+4).

ICM had the two parties neck and neck briefly in 2013, but this is the first time they’ve shown the Conservatives ahead since the Omnishambles budget in 2012. I’ll advise my usual caution on polls showing interesting movements, but the poll does give some backup to the Ashcroft poll earlier today.

The poll also asked about voting intention in the European elections and found topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 26%, GRN 10%. Lab, Con and UKIP are all within the margin of error of each other, but if it panned out like that the Conservatives would presumably be delighted given most polls are showing them languishing in third place (including another from Opinium today, which had figures of CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 28%)

The other poll out today, Populus’s regular online poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Unlike the other two polls they have Labour still in the lead – but only just. Still to come tonight we will have the regular YouGov poll for the Sun.


83 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 13, UKIP 15”

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  1. First?

    An end to polldrums!

  2. yes… significant

  3. Labour remain within their 35-40% range, barring outliers.

    The Tories remain trapped under that 34% ceiling, barring outliers.

  4. i think the ukip bounce has damaged labou. i d expect labour leads to be established a few weeks after the euros

  5. Todays polls:

    I’m not normally wrong and I wasn’t !

  6. Peter Crawford,

    Agreed, although I would also emphasise the importance of how well the Greens are doing right now.

  7. Labour to drop 6 points for no obvious reason surely raises questions about the poll.

    Polling by yougov just yesterday shows that the majority agree with Lab policy announcements over the last 4 weeks so a drop of 6 points is highly suspicious, in my opinion.

  8. Well well well-what a carry on.

    Confusion & apoplexy reigns.

    It does feel good though :-) :-)

  9. UKIP are clearly winning votes from Labour now, whereas previously it was mostly from the Tories.

  10. “apoplexy reigns.”

    Hyperbole much.

  11. One thing is certain from the past few days of polls: the Tories are somewhere in the 24-38% range. Probably.

  12. It is strange.

    Labour seems to have dropped three points in the last couple of months.

    When Labour’s policy announcements have been generally well received, it is hard to know why that should be.

    The incessant character-assassination of Miliband may be paying dividends at last for the Tories. []

  13. and the Greens are either ahead of or behind the Lib Dems.

  14. BILL PATRICK

    I beg to differ.

    After the last few Polls I think the one thing that is certain is that we don’t know what these polls are saying, or why, or what they will say next week, next month etc.

  15. @Andy JS

    As I’ve said before, just because abour are down and Ukip are up doesn’t mean people aere moving from Labour to Ukip in large number. I’ve seen very little evidence to suggest that. What is probably happening is some Labour supporters have drifted away to apathy and that Ukip are bringing people away from apathy and into the electorate, which is forcing down the other parties’ relative share of the electorate without them necessarily losing all that many of their supporters.

    As for the Ashcroft & ICM polls, we’ll have to wait for a couple of YouGov polls next week to see if there is a trend. There’ve been times before when there have been 2 outliers in a row in the same direction. I even recall a period a few months ago when there were 3 in a row. YouGov’s Sunday poll was conducted on he 8th & 9th, and there was no obvious event that would cause a massive change in the electorate.

  16. Ian

    People are now beginning to think ‘do we really want Miliband as PM ?’ and ‘do we really want Labour back after the havoc they left last time ? It is no to both questions for those key swing voters in the seats that matter most.

    A lot of volatility in the polls of late, but today should be the beginning of the change to an established small Tory lead, whether we get to that 38-31 sort of figure that I’ve talked about before is the big question.

  17. I’ve just looked at Populus and it was conducted from the 9th to the 11th and the sample size was 2000. If it shows Labour steady then I find that reassuring, and maybe like most people I’m unconsciously biased towards polls showing better results for my side, but I give that rather more credibility than an ICM poll based on a ‘certain to vote’ sample of about 500.

  18. UKIP Euro boost? If people are consciously thinking that they are going to be putting the cross in the UKIP box in a couple of weeks, then they’re more inclined to say they’ll vote for them in a year?

    We’re going to get the circus over the next fortnight (and it’s quite good having lots of polls!), however in 2 months time, we’ll see whether UKIP have managed to maintain their high scores, or Lab + Con voters float back, with the election sharply imprinted into brains.

  19. Well I talk to my girlfriend a lot about politics and bore her constantly, but she is a Lib Dem, and doesn’t know what Labour stand for. All be it this is a sample of one, I feel it might be rather representative. A few things might be coming home to roost for Labour. Either way, they need some solid policies rather than bouncing from one flavour of the month to the next.

  20. I think it’s most likely the Euro effect. I wouldn’t be surprised if the polls are pretty volatile until after the EU election, if not the Newark one too. Be interesting to see what tonight’s YouGov shows, though.

  21. this reminds me of the romney obama election. the few polls that showed romney in the lead were seized upon and analysed to the nth degree. of course, they didn’t reflect anything like the actual result.

    I expect lots of rogue polls, sound and fury and much froth-blowing nonsense in the next year.

    the actual result will be close, with labour and conservative level-pegging on vote share, and labour the largest party

  22. Prediction for tonight’s YG poll:

    Con 30%
    Lab 40%
    Lib 15%
    UKIP 9%

    Just to really annoy everyone. :))

  23. @ RogerH

    ‘I think it’s most likely the Euro effect. I wouldn’t be surprised if the polls are pretty volatile until after the EU election, if not the Newark one too. Be interesting to see what tonight’s YouGov shows, though.’

    Mmmmmm! Still think it is ‘outlandish’ to consider the Tories as in the stronger position. Sure, these are just two polls but there has been a fairly clear trend towards smaller Labour leads for a while now. A Tory lead was bound to come soon. Agreed, it might be the impact of the Euros (I hope so!) but I wouldn’t be surprised to see fairly consistent level-pegging during the summer (so long as the Tories hold their nerve post Euros and Newark) and then a gap developing as the economy continues to improve. Depressing but likely to be true!

  24. @statgeek,

    Yeah wouldn’t surprise me!!

  25. Peter Crawford,

    “of course, they didn’t reflect anything like the actual result.”

    They weren’t that far off. The result was roughly 51-47% in the popular vote, although Romney probably needed more than just winning the vote to beat Obama.

  26. Obviously some lousy polls for Labour to say the least.

    If Labour is looking for a saving grace in this, it might be that while a GE ICM poll with the Conservatives in the lead isn’t unbelievable, the chances of the Conservatives leading in a Euro poll is far less plausible. And since the sample is the same for both, the latter result casts a bit more doubt on the former.

    But on the other hand, that might be clutching at straws.

  27. @NFR: “Still think it is ‘outlandish’ to consider the Tories as in the stronger position.”

    Of course. Unless they’re ahead of Labour (enough to overcome the existing electoral bias) then they’re in the weaker position of the two. You seem to confuse the possibility of becoming stronger with their existing situation.

  28. “A Tory lead was bound to come soon.”

    Nothing is ‘bound to come soon’.

  29. rogh

    Yeah – its a bit like saying “Liverpool are bound to win the Prem….. sometime.”

  30. Daisie wants to know if it will be called a “crossback” if Labour go back ahead tonight.

    I think she is just feigning interest though as she has taken to supporting Wigan.

  31. I’m waiting for polls to show a hung parliament for a long time- the hungover point.

  32. I see we are indulging in paraprosdokians.

    We need a YouGov.

  33. “I see we are indulging in paraprosdokians.”

    Cheek ! I shall set Rosie on you H. and she is not to be trifled with.

    She usually say “hello” with a friendly bite.

  34. Howard

    A new word! Thanks (though I see it is literally a new word – “a late 20th-century neologism” according to the source of all knowledge – Wiki)

  35. rich

    “Well I talk to my girlfriend a lot about politics and bore her constantly”

    Are you absolutely certain this is definitely to do with politics Rich??

  36. PETER CRAWFORD

    “the few polls that showed romney in the lead …”

    Who’s to say they weren’t right? It was noted at the time that there were “discrepancies” in some of the voting returns. I believe there were some areas where polling was more than 100% (sic) of the electorate – solidly, uniformly even, pro-Obama. Don’t forget too that Obama is a devotee of his fellow-community organiser, Saul Alinsky, which means little in terms of methods employed is out of bounds.

    Sadly voter fraud seems to becoming more common in this country also, or perhaps we shouldn’t talk about it.

  37. oh.. the above comment was – officially – a

    “JOLLY GOOD JOKE WITH MULTIPLE SMILIES AND EXCLAMATION MARKS PLUS A “Sorry!!! Couldn’t help myself !!!!! FOLLOWED BT MULTIPLE LOLS AND A FEW MORE EXCLAMTION MARKS AND A SIGNED STATEMENT ON BEHALF OF ME AND THE GURLS THAT WE DO NOT FIND RICH DULL OR BORING”

    [often]

  38. R&D

    At last! Your humour has descended to my level. LOL.

  39. sorry…

    “ever”

    Crossback time approaching >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…

  40. ole nat

    Impossible.

  41. YouGov: L36 C35

    Looks like an outlier considering all the other Pollsters are showing a Tory Lead today

  42. Are the Sun too nervous to admit Statty was right??

  43. YouGov/Sun poll – Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

    https://twitter.com/Sun_Politics/status/465958366074781696

  44. Yougov tonight:

    Con 35
    Lab 36
    LD9
    Ukip 14

  45. @Howard

    It’s all Greek to me.

  46. Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 18m

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

  47. All polls tonight essentially saying the same thing. It’s difficult to explain the sudden tightening – maybe people’s minds are being focused with the media coverage around 12 months till the election.

  48. What on earth is going on?

    My nose tells me that some Blue Kippers went back to Blue about a week ago, as there was a slight wobble in Kipper support recently, however, it now appears it has been more than made up by incoming Red Kippers – plus a Green nibble from Red too at the same time?

    Thus it all appears like a slump for Red against Blue in two headline figures?

  49. Looks like yesterday’s YouGov and today’s two horror polls were just outliers in opposite directions, like I suspected.

    Time to calm down methinks.

    LabourList have got an article up shrieking from the rooftops about the ICM & Ashcroft polls. They have a habit of doing this every time a worse than average poll for Labour is reported. It’s really not good for morale.

  50. 31 32 and two 36s

    Say around 40 average.

    [Once the story about Cameron holding that lady down and not comforting her is out then maybe a bit more.]

    Actually, all weird and must be confusion/conflation [new word for Daisie] of Euro/UKIP mania.

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