Following the surprise Ashcroft poll earlier on today ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is also showing a lead for the Conservative party. Their topline figures are CON 33%(+1), LAB 31%(-6!), LDEM 13%(+1), UKIP 15%(+4).

ICM had the two parties neck and neck briefly in 2013, but this is the first time they’ve shown the Conservatives ahead since the Omnishambles budget in 2012. I’ll advise my usual caution on polls showing interesting movements, but the poll does give some backup to the Ashcroft poll earlier today.

The poll also asked about voting intention in the European elections and found topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 26%, GRN 10%. Lab, Con and UKIP are all within the margin of error of each other, but if it panned out like that the Conservatives would presumably be delighted given most polls are showing them languishing in third place (including another from Opinium today, which had figures of CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 28%)

The other poll out today, Populus’s regular online poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Unlike the other two polls they have Labour still in the lead – but only just. Still to come tonight we will have the regular YouGov poll for the Sun.


83 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 13, UKIP 15”

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  1. [Snip - no one here should be writing "as a supporter" of anyone!]

    More importantly, is Yougov out of line with the other pollsters, or are the others out of line with Yougov?

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  2. Here’s my paraprosdokian contribution.

    ‘That ain’t a crossover, it’s another poll’

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  3. “statgeek

    So…considering the day’s polls, are the Labour supporters pleased with a 1% lead?”

    No point in asking that q because, from our posts no-one can tell who we support.

    [From "their" posts" I mean.]

    Anyway, I am more fussed about my knee: I want one made of lignum vitae not bone that wears out before yer even dead.

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  4. I wonder if their a period when people are weighing up options, and then finally commit to a decision?

    Have the last few days possibly been people going back and forth in their minds before settling on a decision?

    Syzygysue, if you are reading, this may be up your street :)

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  5. Worried I would say. I suppose the bright side for Lab is this is happening now not in 10 months time. Gives Lab a chance to figure out what is going wrong. Because something is.

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  6. I’m going to have a heart attack.

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  7. @R&D – I once had a knee made from curriculum vitae.

    As a knee, it was pretty useless, but it was second hand and had a fascinating life history.

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  8. Love the recent Polls.

    Its as though some higher power has finally got pi**ed off with all the instant polling analysis & expertise-all the new found “truths” and has set out to teach both sides a lesson:-

    OK Tory people-so you think the Labour lead is shrinking? -try this one for size then

    OK Labour people -so you think Labour have a 7 point lead -try this one for size then.

    etc etc.

    :-)

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  9. @ RogerH

    ‘You seem to confuse the possibility of becoming stronger with their existing situation.’

    Sure, lots of things could happen between now and the GE, but on the basis of what we know about past polling (ie economic competence impacting on VI) and what we can be reasonably confident about happening (sustained economic growth), it is entirely reasonable to suggest that the Conservatives are currently (ie before any unforeseen event occurs) in a better position than Labour.

    ‘Nothing is ‘bound to come soon’.’

    Pedantry – it would have been remarkable if there had been repeated one point Labour leads and no Tory one.

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  10. @Couper2802

    I have heard next to nothing from Labour (or the Conservatives or Lib Dems either) in the last few days.

    In my area I am campaigning for the Greens, and have seen precious little activity from the big three. When me, on my own, leafleting one ward, seems to be more active than the big three put together, that may be the answer partially.

    Have Labour offered anything significant?

    The Conservatives can (and probably will) rely largely on the fact that the economy seems to picking up, if fitfully and partially, and they will say their medicine has worked.

    Labour has really needed to offer an serious alternative?

    Have they?

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  11. catmanjeff

    “I wonder if their a period when people are weighing up options, and then finally commit to a decision?”

    That’s certainly a possibility. There are clearly such moments – whether this is one, time will tell.

    What does seem to be the case is that, on both sides of the border, people are having to consider issues that are deeper than just which party has the better managerial team.

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  12. @Colin

    You are quite correct.

    Lets see this week’s polls pan out. The tabs tomorrow should be interesting.

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  13. I suspect ICM is a little over dramatic, as it’s a little hard to see Lab only adding 2% to a terrible 2010 GE result, but it’s clear something is moving.

    I would suggest people on all sides calm down and don’t get too excited. The fundamentals haven’t changed inside a week. What is making the news is a set of elections, which are traditionally really rather odd, in terms of the results they throw up.

    I’m pretty sure that much of these poll movements are down to the Euro election influence, with UKIP getting high levels of coverage and pulling support from several sources, and the Greens probably eating into Lab support more specifically.

    Beneath this, there is likely to be some level of drift to Con anyway, as the economic news continues to look more encouraging, but that’s a slow process.

    This all could still be a worry for Lab though. Even if the fundamentals haven’t changed, sometimes random events can switch the momentum. Tories will be absolutely cheered by this, and the news media likes to see changing polls stories.

    Post Euro’s things might subside a little, but the early predictions over which of the three monkeys will be laughing come results night might now be in jeopardy.

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  14. COUPER2802

    ‘Worried I would say’

    You’re absolutely right to be! I’m not really because my expectations have been set on Tory as largest party or winning for some time now.

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  15. CATMANJEFF

    @”Labour has really needed to offer an serious alternative?
    Have they?”

    Most certainly .
    EM is offering an serious alternatives almost every day.

    Shorter GP appointment * today-preceded by a veritable Christmas Hamper of cheaper this & better that.
    I confidently predict that his superior intellectual self confidence , will very soon produce a serious challenge to Lidls.

    * not sure about Wales on that one-don’t think he said.

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  16. This is supposed to be a sensible comment.

    All the fluff over the euros will have had its effect (note spelling), as we see today. If the polls are so close next May, then perhaps a ‘stunt’ could be a worthwhile gamble for the one who’s behind. What sort of stunt? Well, it would have to be better than a J Edgar Hoover job, but something really juicy could at least save a debacle. When I write juicy, I really mean poisonous.

    Is British politics into such things?

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  17. Catmanjeff,

    Certainly the Greens, of all the parties, seem to be the party making major headway in the past month or so. Labour had quite a comfy left-end of the sofa for a while; the Greens have managed to make it a tighter squeeze, without any major event (like a nuclear powerstation meltdown or Labour doing anything to annoy the left of their supporters) to boost them.

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  18. Well, I don’t know about a week being a long time in politics, it would appear that three days is a lifetime now! A weekend YouGov gives Labour a 7 point lead and Opinium and Survation have the Tories wallowing in the dreaded upper 20s, and then along comes ICM and Populus to turn it all on its head 24 hours later.

    It’s a bit difficult to discern what might have changed in that micro timespan, and Ashcrofts poll showing a Tory lead conducted its fieldwork at the same time as the YouGov poll showing a Labour lead of 7. One of them is clearly way out – maybe both!

    More time required to monitor how significant this is in the long term and whether it’s just a momentary spasm caused by a couple of dodgy polls arriving simultaneously, but it will certainly boost Tory morale and send a few shivers through the Labour camp going into these Euro and local elections.

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  19. HOWARD

    @”Is British politics into such things?”

    That would seem irrelevant , since it is run by an Australian & an American-for both of whom , “stunts” seem to be normal modus operandi.

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  20. @Colin

    That is even more worrying because Labs policies are popular. So they should not be in the low thirties from around 40 a year ago. I am beginning to wonder if TOH’s touching faith in a Con win in 15 might not be so far fetched. Maybe people will not vote for EM no matte how much they like his policies ? If that is the reason, as the Euros concentrate minds, then it is not just the LibDems that are doomed.

    I have skin in this game as I said I would change my user name to ‘I heart DC’ if the Cons win. Gulp

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  21. COUPER2802

    Now come on old chap. Less of that sort of talk.

    Steady the Buffs-stiff upper lip.-wait for the whites of their eyes.

    :-)

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  22. Sorry CMJ – anything I have to say is more related to the vagaries of polling samples and statistics than psychology although I agreed with a comment that Amber made on another thread. I think that quite a few Ukip positives may vote Tory when it actually comes to the polling booth.

    I’m very dull because I doubt that there has been any great shift in support for any of the main four… methodology and statistical drift seem much more likely. However, time will tell.

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  23. @AW

    “Snip – no one here should be writing “as a supporter” of anyone!”

    Of course not. After the day’s earlier polls, if might provide a crumb of comfort.

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  24. @Catman

    That’s not a testable hypothesis; we can never know what’s going on in people’s heads, so we have to stick to what they say. At the moment fewer of them are saying they’ll vote Labour.

    That is not to say that this represents a “trend”. A year before the election of 79 Thatcher was behind Callaghan, and I suppose Labour suporters detected a “trend” in their favour*. A month later she was ahead again. A month after that behind again, and so on to the end of the year. Of course the Winter of Discontent gave the Tories a big lift at the beginning of 79 — but it didn’t raise the Tory vote dramatically above their average for 78! What caused those fluctuations is anyone’s guess. But the electorate’s pattern of behaviour throughout the period wasn’t one that had a “trend” other than than a gradual squeaze of the Liberals to the benefit of Lab and Con.

    In short, I think this change is only interesting as yet. I’ll reserve judgement on “significant”.
    ______________________________________________________________

    * I was politically active in 78 but I find I don’t remember much about it. Unrequited love I fear. Happy days.

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  25. “A Liberal lead is bound to come soon.” (Lloyd George, 1918)

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  26. ““A Liberal lead is bound to come soon.” (Lloyd George, 1918)”

    And who’s to say he was wrong?

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  27. @Colin

    :-)

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  28. @Colin

    Sorry I forgot smilies are frowned upon. It is the anxiety of Labour’s incredible shrinking poll lead.

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  29. “sorry I forgot smilies are frowned upon. It is the anxiety of Labour’s incredible shrinking poll lead.”

    try to work on some frownies then.

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  30. I am normally quite calm about any single polls and tend to think that most are normally within MOE but without seeing the tabs I think these polls are ridiculous and cannot understand how they have arrived at these figures. I am not getting over excited and expect major gains for Labour in the local elections and probably Labour to finish first in the Euros. As I am currently on holiday I think I will withhold further commentating until after the elections.

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  31. COUPER2802
    @”Sorry I forgot smilies are frowned upon.”

    Only by boring narcissists .

    Smilies don’t actually smile here-but the fellow devotee will always recognise the signal & smile inwardly.

    :-) :-) :-) :-)

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  32. “COUPER2802
    @”Sorry I forgot smilies are frowned upon.”

    Only by boring narcissists .”

    What an unpleasant man you are Colin.

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  33. Takes one to know one as they say Paul :-) :-)

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