Following the surprise Ashcroft poll earlier on today ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is also showing a lead for the Conservative party. Their topline figures are CON 33%(+1), LAB 31%(-6!), LDEM 13%(+1), UKIP 15%(+4).
ICM had the two parties neck and neck briefly in 2013, but this is the first time they’ve shown the Conservatives ahead since the Omnishambles budget in 2012. I’ll advise my usual caution on polls showing interesting movements, but the poll does give some backup to the Ashcroft poll earlier today.
The poll also asked about voting intention in the European elections and found topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 26%, GRN 10%. Lab, Con and UKIP are all within the margin of error of each other, but if it panned out like that the Conservatives would presumably be delighted given most polls are showing them languishing in third place (including another from Opinium today, which had figures of CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 28%)
The other poll out today, Populus’s regular online poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Unlike the other two polls they have Labour still in the lead – but only just. Still to come tonight we will have the regular YouGov poll for the Sun.