The usual two regular polls from Populus and YouGov this morning. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% (tabs here) Populus’s twice-weekly poll meanwhile had figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16% (tabs here).

284 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus figures”

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  1. Rosie and Daisie,
    Agreement regarding UKIP,crazy stuff.Regarding the knee,painful for now,but
    Once you have a new one you will be chasing the girls round the park.

  2. Ken Clarke (off message no doubt) launched into a riff on Any Questions? today about the rise of Ukip… a strange movement of “disillusion and anger and nihilist protest” and an “apparently never ending list of strange and rather unpleasant people (their candidates).
    He went so far as to draw a parallel with the mob who went around stringing up people after the Great Fire of London.

    At 18.20 on iPlayer.

  3. A in W
    Are you recommending adultery?

  4. @Barazenzero

    Thank you.

  5. Now Howard! I wanted to spell girls gurls but the I pad knew better.

  6. Billy Bob,
    How interesting.I must admit that I did not know that there was a mob who went around stringing up people after the great fire of London .A lot of anti
    Catholic feeling then of course.Bit of a stretch comparing a real national
    calamity to the rise of UKIP I would have thought.

  7. A in W
    Of course!

    I think there is a critical mas for when a ‘movement’ becomes a party, rather than a party becoming a movement. I don’t think UKIP has attained the latter stage, as I don’t think this is Donetsk.

    In fact, despite their strength, I don’t think any of the anti EU parties (not even FN) have quite reached that stage.

    We have seen that even a couple of million people marching down Whitehall actually achieved b*gger all.

  8. Howard
    If peaceful marches don’t work, and UKIP fail, what is left? There are many people totally disillusioned with the current political setup for various reasons. We have seen large-scale rioting quite recently. It could happen again but worse unless UKIP can provide a voice for those who feel disenfranchised.

  9. I know you are all glued to Eurovision, even Farage.

    My prediction is that the UK entry will finish about 8th, as there are many better songs.

  10. Survation have new polling out in tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday on a range of topics including Scottish independence, The Chilcot Inquiry, the stickiness of UKIP’s Westminster vote, potential intervention in Nigeria’s Boko Haram affair, and the the concept of a politician being “intellectually self confident”.

    Polling also includes updated voting intention as follows:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 28%

    LAB 33%

    LD 10%

    UKIP 20%

    AP 9%

    European Parliament VI (Change vs May 6th)

    CON 21% (-4)

    LAB 28% (nc)

    LD 9% (+3)

    UKIP 32% (+1)

    AP 11% (+1)

  11. R Huckle
    No we are not!

  12. Good Evening All.
    CATMANUEFF: Thanks for the poll links and happier for the Labour Party on the Mail!

  13. Pete B
    Clearly, if we had some form of PR, UKIP would have that voice, or perhaps platform is a better term. However, it would be very clear to the public, that which is largely not known at present, namely what that platform would really look like. At the moment, the EP representation, despite its somewhat questionable performance, is largely invisible to the UK voters.

    How long would the UKIP last as a force in Westminster is questionable. In the Netherlands, with which I am familiar, the various similar parties have had several goes, only to collapse in ruins eventually.

  14. Pete B
    I just replied but got caught by WP so please look later if it gets released.

  15. R Huckle,
    My husband is watching this utter tosh,mad looking people Singing if you can call it that on the top of ladders for some inexplicable reason .

  16. “Singing if you can call it that on the top of ladders for some inexplicable reason .”

    Makes the high notes easier Ann.

    BOOM BOOM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. Slight elucidation of Statgeek’s 14:43 comment about an apparent Scottish poll. He’s actually referring to the Scottish subset of the combined Populus polls for April which they aggregate for the FT. The actual dataset is here:

    (Statgeek’s link is just the latest bi-weekly).

    The trouble with these cross-breaks is that there is no way of knowing how well they are (re-)weighted with respect to Scotland itself. Given Populus’s known problems with political weighting there’s also the situation of not being quite sure as to what weighting if any was done to allow for the different political landscape of Scotland.

    That said the figures don’t look that implausible except for a high Con rating which may be explained by the general bias of Populus to have too many 2010 Cons and Lib Dems in their samples. It’s interesting that as with most of the recent Scottish Westminster polls it shows the SNP and Labour about level with the SNP if anything slightly ahead. This tends to contrast with the YouGov cross-breaks which also tend to show high Conservative ratings and tend to have Labour in the lead.

  18. @ rosieanddaisie

    “Singing if you can call it that on the top of ladders for some inexplicable reason .”

    Makes the high notes easier Ann.

    BOOM BOOM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ”

    I did actually chortle at that. The winner is going to be a transgender Woman with a beard. But I have to admit that she was very good and would be a deserved winner.

    I have watched Eurovision since the 1970’s. I can just about remember Brotherhood of Man.

  19. R HUCKLE
    “I know you are all glued to Eurovision, even Farage.”

    Surely not. They’re not broadcasting anything themselves until tomorrow’s “historic” motor race from Monaco – see

  20. Roger Mexico

    The Scottish recalled vote is out of kilter with the actual results in 2010 (Lab -12, SNP + 8) – but then, the cross break hasn’t been internally weighted.

    Any Scottish poll which refers to a May GE without specifying whether they are referring to a Scottish or UK one, is likely to breed confusion among respondents.

  21. Both Labour and the Tories must hope that the current Kipper Kraze is temporary; for the latter, this is obvious, but even for Labour, winning a majority on about as big a percentage as they got in 2010 (or even smaller if they lose more ground over the next twelve months) would hardly be a fine way to start a parliament.

  22. Plenty of support for Russia in Ukraine it seems- think they gave them 3 or 4 points. Not much support for them in Copenhagen though- plenty of boos whenever Russia got given any points.

    No one had a chance of beating beardy though.

  23. @ R Huckle

    Where was the rumour for the ST poll? Seems conceivable within MOE and is something that has been puzzling for a while that there has not been one single poll with a crossover.

    Nothing on the front page of the ST though and you’d have thought they would have found room for something as big as that.

  24. Can’t believe any of you are watching Eurovision. I used to enjoy watching the little black dot disappear in olden days more than that ole tosh.

  25. @Shevii,

    I suspect that certain people (including quite a few men who are “Not Soldiers” and “Not From Russia”) in Crimea and the Donetsk Basin voted in large numbers for Russia in the Eurovision poll. Not really a surprise.

  26. Very gratifying to A) see Putin booed and B) see his least favourite candidate win.

  27. And like you, once I saw the ST front page on their twitter feed, I stopped giving the crossover rumour any credence. The whole point of commissioning voting polls is to make a story out of the results.

  28. @MrNameless,

    I actually quite liked “Rise like a Phoenix” on its own merits, but yes there was something of a “Gay Mountain” vibe about the voting.

  29. @ R&D

    Just switch it on when it gets to the voting. Everything there that nearly anyone on this site enjoys:

    a) Voting
    b) Politics and geographical/cultural differences
    c) Gender bendering (well maybe not everyone)

  30. amber

    “The No campaign (BT/UWL) get similar ‘converts’ from Yes fairly often”

    Is that why ole nat is now known as Mole Nat ??

  31. Summary of tonight’s polls:

    Survation, Westminster:

    Lab 33
    Con 28
    UKIP 20
    LD 10

    Opinium, Westminster:

    Lab 33
    Con 29
    UKIP 20
    LD 9

    Survation, Euros:

    UKIP 32
    Lab 28
    Con 21
    LD 9

  32. @Shevii

    Ukraine gave Russia 4pts. Bear in mind that only 50% of voting is public vote with the remaining 50% decided by a panel of national song “experts”. Assuming that all the Ukrainian experts were from western Ukraine (very likely), pro-Russian Ukrainians could only amass a maximum of 3%. Where did the other 1% come from? And does the % within Ukraine/Crimea that voted for Russia show that (with Crimea) there is something close to a pro-Russian (or at least Russian spreaking) majority in Ukraine?

    Or it could just be that the Russian song was rather good.

  33. Mole Nat

    I am wondering if you’re a double Mole Rat…..

  34. @ Rosie&Daisie

    LOL, LOL & thrice LOL! You are on form tonight.

  35. Don’t think Labour will be too dissatisfied with the two Westminster polls there, with one or two being a bit closer during the week.

    In fact, depending on what the ST gives us tomorrow, they could all show the same. Populus had a 4% lead on Friday, and a 4 and a 5 tonight.

  36. Amber

    Wow! All these people who have been committed to one side, switching to the other!

    Fickle people the Scots must be.

  37. Just flicked through the TImes app to try and see if I can find news on the ST poll, and who did I find quoted in an article on Ed – Mr Wells himself!

  38. OLDNAT

    Re “funding genocidal maniacs”, the FU response must apply: You might think that, I couldn’t possibly comment.

  39. Statgeek

    The Populus data for Scotland is interesting. It shows the SNP running extremely powerfully for the General Election and efffectively nails the claims that they have a “women issue” since they lead Labour in both genders.

    However Labour’s mere 2 per cent lead in a sample of 16,000 or so over the entire month of April in the UK is just as significant.

    Note that Opinium’s admittedly tiny Scottish sub sample for the Euros shows the SNP top of the walk as have the four real Scottish polls on the Euros thus far.

  40. Tonights Yougov – labour 7% in front

    Lab 38%
    Tory 31%

    The rest ….who cares

    Shoot the rumour mongerer

  41. @ Old Nat

    Fickle people the Scots must be.
    About as fickle as anybody else, I reckon.

  42. Natty

    If your nationalist McChums find out yer a mole you might end up being called Ole Rat.

  43. The rest for those interested include LDs on 9 and the Kippers on 13.

    The Uncredible Shrinking Man and rent policy effective at shoring up the Red Dems or just an outlier? We’ll see.

  44. Amber


  45. That 31 is rather low for the Cons. David and George have been rather invisible lately though.

  46. Mr Beeswax

    “When I supported Labour I opposed…anti-gay prejudice and switching my support to Ukip didn’t involve ditching those things….

    And when we are out of the beastly EU and faith groups don’t run the risk of vexatious claims in the European courts forcing them to conduct marriages against their conscience I’ll support equal marriage too.”

    So, opposition to anti-gay prejudice but in favour of other people’s anti-gay prejudice.

  47. @Red rag

    So it’s still: Tories 30-35%, Lab 35-40%. The Tories clearly have a ceiling and Labour a floor on YG at least.

  48. Mony a mickle maks a muckle.

    That’s the sort of ole mctosh you’ll have to put up with in an independent Scotland.

    Is that what you want? ‘Cos that’s what you’ll get.

  49. @Norbold,

    Libertarianism – the “I didn’t see nuffin'” of ideologies.

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