The usual two regular polls from Populus and YouGov this morning. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% (tabs here) Populus’s twice-weekly poll meanwhile had figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16% (tabs here).


284 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus figures”

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  1. It appears clear that UKIP’s rise is now primarily at Labour’s expense.

    This could be very bad for Labour.

  2. Anthony are you aware of any methodological changes? I know it’s only a couple of polls from each, but Populus, were showing the tighter leads of the two, but now YouGov are…

  3. Greens on 4% with both companies today, definitely getting a Euro boost.

  4. “It appears clear that UKIP’s rise is now primarily at Labour’s expense.”

    The poll showing UKIP higher is showing the Conservatives lower. The evidence does not seem to fit your analysis.

  5. UKIP in Scotland
    YG 5%
    Populus 3%

    Different world?

    We’re all for open borders here if any of you in the South wish to emigrate to escape UKIP’s rise……..

  6. Very interesting observation over at pb on the lower level of LD to Lab switchers in OPs for the Euros than in OPs for the GE.

    MS opines :-

    “As can be seen there’s quite a difference which raises questions about the LAB strategy with this key group of voters who are so central to LAB hopes of winning next year.

    As seen in the recent PPB Ed Miliband’s team has a “once size fits all” approach to these voters.

    For many LDs haven’t come over body and soul to Labour but are being selective about what they do. For some the motivation in a general election is not to support Labour but to vote against the Tories remaining in power at Westminster.”

  7. 2 polls going in different directions – something for everyone

  8. The last two UKIP 13s mark their lowest YouGov point for over a fortnight. Have they peaked?

  9. “For some the motivation in a general election is not to support Labour but to vote against the Tories remaining in power at Westminster.”

    Which is what Labour needs to help it to a majority.

  10. John B
    Before our notifying the estate agent to sell, perhaps you would inform me whether it is likely an independent Scotland will have PR and join the EZ?

    FPT, I stand by my analysis of the LD to Lab shift. They are lefties who have found a leftie home. I really can’t see how one could see it otherwise. A poll of those voters would settle it.

  11. RogerH I’m wondering the same thing… They seemed to level off before the locals last year, only to surge again after their strong results… So I’m guessing a lot depends on how the Euros (and probably locals) play out…

  12. It seems inevitable now that, sooner or later, a poll will show a Tory lead (albeit by 1 or 2 points).

  13. They’ve done another one, it’s probably more effective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prWxckyxjyY

    And it’s largely set in Sheffield which makes it great ;)

  14. Ben

    Yes, I think it is an ever turning tide towards a final conclusion of the Tories being the largest party. The question is can they get far enough ahead as the heat is turned on Labour and UKIP to secure that majority ?I don’t think so at this stage.

  15. MRN

    They are becoming paranoid about the stickiness of those Red Dems . lol

  16. @ Mr. Nameless,

    This one is a lot better. They should have listened to me earlier. ;)

  17. Fenland DC, Roman BankMay 8, 2014

    Conservative 763 (48.1%; -8.8%)
    UKIP 537 (33.8%; +33.8%)
    Labour 193 (12.2%; -14.5%)
    Independent 70 (4.4%; +4.4%)
    LD Stephen Court 24 (1.5%; -14.9%)

    Majority 226
    Turnout 29.7%

    Conservative hold.

    Percentage changes are since 2011.

    Not a bad result for UKIP who had never contested this sea before, 38% from a standing start with the Tories and Labour well down and the LDs losing yet another deposit

  18. I have a theory about the attacks against the Lib Dems. In addition to it maybe being to shore up the LD>Lab vote, it may be as a result of the local elections, where in a lot of cities Labour are facing the Lib Dems as an opposition with no Tories in sight.

  19. @ Mr. Nameless,

    That makes more sense than any theory I’ve managed to come up with. It is true that historically Labour care more about the councils than the European Parliament.

    Even then, though, shouldn’t they be campaigning against Ukip as well? Attacking Clegg just gets an anti-Lib Dem vote, it doesn’t guarantee it will go to Labour. Colin’s ‘Red Dems’ are peeling off to go to Ukip, not to come home to Clegg.

  20. You are correct, although attacking UKIP is a difficult one and probably shouldn’t come down to “attacking” at all – the only thing they can realistically do is lay out this specific argument.

    – Even if UKIP win every MEP, Britain won’t leave the EU.
    – While we’re in the EU, you should vote Labour MEPs in and by the way here are the PES policies.
    – If you’re angry at this government nobody else can win.

    Do that in the most honest, straightforward way possible. No tracking shots of Ed smiling with “normal people” or walking down hallways looking dynamic. Stick Ed and Glenis Wilmott behind a desk and keep it quick and to the point.

  21. Number Cruncher –

    I can say with certainly there hasn’t been any YouGov methodology change. I’m not aware of any Populus change either.

  22. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Even I would switch that off!

    I agree The Further Adventures Of Ed Miliband In Railway Stations is not the answer, but can’t they find some clip of Nigel Farage banging on about how awful employment rights are and how he wants to abolish them? Ukip has been very rightwing for a very long time; there must be video footage of this somewhere.

  23. I think if hoisting Clegg by his own petard proves effective they may turn the broadcast/interview archive guns on other parties too.

  24. The Lib Dems are at 9% and frequently struggle to keep their deposits. How can you tell whether or not you’ve scored a hit when the enemy battleship is already at the bottom of the ocean?

    (Let’s hope the other parties don’t catch on and remember Miliband’s “Will Britain join the Euro?” “Depends how long I’m Prime Minister!” interview…)

  25. You’re right, perhaps I’ll rephrase it – if it doesn’t go down like a lead balloon, they’ll test it out on someone else.

  26. As a wise observer on these very pages once observed, Populus has quite clearly become the Gold Standard of pollsters.

    :-)

  27. We need a poll of just those who have switched from LD to Lab to settle the argument. ‘The question is’ … and then give a few reasons and see what comes up. I’m confident that the ‘deserters’ (an Ashcroft expression was it not?) will be voters who hoped that there would be an LD /Lab coalition (nobody expected Lab to win in 2010 surely?) and were mortified when it became otherwise. The tuition fee business was bad publicity but the tide had turned previous to that IIRC.

    I shall now be told the poll was carried out and I’ve been asleep.

  28. Colin – I have just noticed that there is a new thread here. I have answered your previous question to me on the previous thread where it follows that discussion.

  29. @Spearmint (& Colin)

    “Colin’s ‘Red Dems’ are peeling off to go to Ukip, not to come home to Clegg.”

    Really? As a committed “Red Dem” I can assure you that Hell will freeze over before I would vote UKIP!

  30. I have just watched the Labour PPB on Youtube. I found it quite funny – and it did hit the political nail on the head about Clegg’s acquiescence []. As an ex-Lib Dem I wasn’t offended at all. My only regret is that it doesn’t get over any Labour policies or provide any profile for Labour.

  31. @NumberCruncher

    I want to thank you very much for the excellent briefing you sent a couple of threads back about interest rates and mortgage repayments. Thanks to that post of yours I learned a very great deal I never knew before.

  32. @ROY1

    Thanks. I was wondering about the turnout. Although there is no deposit to lose at local level. They kinda just lost it in spirit. Fair play to ’em.

  33. TD
    I went back to read your reply to Colin, thank you. It bears out everything I give as the reason why those (7% is it roughly?) have gone to a Labour Party, now led by a man that sounds more like what they wanted (than his brother ever did). You were a LD member and activist. so you have not gone *back* but the ordinary voter, with the same outlook, has. EM, we know, wants PR and sounds libertarian to these ‘deserters’. Note my quote marks around the Ashcroft term.

    I can’t see them going anywhere else before 2015 unless (for example) EM starts sounding too much like his brother.

  34. Hold on! Labour’s vote was on 39-40%. It is now 35-36%. The 4% hasn’t gone to the Tories and it hasn’t gone to the Lib Dems. It must have gone to UKIP.

    One might expect the main opposition party to be in the 40s at this stage of the parliament. It must be very disappointing and troubling for Labour that they aren’t.

    Still, FPTP mitigates against new parties and given the current zeitgeist I would bet on UKIP’s share holding up for the next eleven months. On the basis that UKIP will hurt both main parties, I expect a small Labour majority as Labour’s vote is more efficient.

    I expect the verdict on the Lib Dem’s time in government to be very severe indeed. I expect zero seats for them in the Euros. This is just a taster for their final demise. It is an inescapable verdict that they have enabled the Tory Party to govern. […]

    I am expecting no more than 30 seats for them next May and have put a couple of hundred of quid on that. […]

  35. MP for Hemsworth and Labour Party Deputy Chair John Trickett is canvassing in Crookes tomorrow morning. Any questions on a post (card) and I’ll report back if I can get an answer.

  36. Howard – thanks for your post where you say “….so you have not gone *back* but the ordinary voter, with the same outlook, has”

    This is true up to a point Howard. I agree that the LDs did attract quite a number of “natural” Labour supporters during the Iraq War era. However, I don’t think this accounts for all of the 7% say. It would be interesting to have a breakdown of how many of us are actually historically long term Lib supporters and voters rather than the recent converts who have returned?

    Given how hollowed-out the LibDems seem to be on the ground in the locals, especially in urban areas, I suspect there are many more like me, as well as the more recent brethren?

  37. @IANANTHONYJAMES: “Hold on! Labour’s vote was on 39-40%. It is now 35-36%. The 4% hasn’t gone to the Tories and it hasn’t gone to the Lib Dems. It must have gone to UKIP.”

    Wishful thinking, I suspect. There’s nothing to suggest it’s gone to UKIP which, like all four parties, has barely moved over the last month. There’s been no movement that couldn’t be accounted for by the MoE.

  38. I think that those of you complaining that the Labour comedy attack ads are somehow a failure are judging the population by our own nerdy standards. On this site we ought to be looking at some metrics – so let’s do that.

    Look at the number of views on their YouTube channel. Most of the videos get around 5,000 hits. “We’re for the many, not a privileged few” – 4,261. “A new approach to Banking” – 5,404. “Building a different kind of economy” – 4,429. All pious, policy-led videos.

    In just two days, “The Un-credible Shrinking Man” has amassed 62,010 views. “David Cameron’s Facebook Movie” from February has been watched an astonishing 652,589 times. Both were comedy attack ads.

    The figures don’t seem disputable: the “comedy attack ad” formula works far, far better – orders of magnitude better – at disseminating Labour talking points, at getting the message in front of eyeballs, than the gentler, nerdier approach that many people here and in the mainstream media claim would be better.

  39. I don’t normally watch any PPBs but I will definitely watch the Labour ones from now on. Thank you MrNameless for the Youtube links – I enjoyed them both and now can’t wait to see the next one.

  40. @ Tony Dean

    “@Spearmint (& Colin)

    “Colin’s ‘Red Dems’ are peeling off to go to Ukip, not to come home to Clegg.”

    Really? As a committed “Red Dem” I can assure you that Hell will freeze over before I would vote UKIP!”

    Ditto, absolutely ditto.

    I’ll vote Green in the Euros, and in the GE if they stand a candidate (if not then Labour whilst holding my nose).

  41. @IanAnthonyJames

    There is a sizeable group of people who are undecided not between two or more parties, but about whether they will bother voting or not. In the last year Labour have lost some of their more marginal supporters to apathy, while Ukip have brought some people who were previously apathetic into the active electorate. There is no evidence at all of Labour losing large numbers of supporters to Ukip.

  42. “Even then, though, shouldn’t they be campaigning against Ukip as well?”

    ———–

    That might be the job of the press…

  43. Anyone else had targeted letters to just one member of the household rather than both?

    A friend had a LD one addressed to the male member of the couple and we just had two today addressed to the female member of the household (Tory and independent)- maybe they know she wears the trousers in this household and I do what I’m told :-)

    The only reason I can think of is that she has a postal vote but they were too late anyway- she’d already sent it back by the time they arrived.

  44. @Shevi – Mrs A has received a Tory leaflet, not I.

    Such fools.

  45. I guess the real question of the day has to be whether the Lib Dems should be humanely stunned before they are butchered on May 22nd or not?

  46. @Pressman

    ‘Yes, I think it is an ever turning tide towards a final conclusion of the Tories being the largest party. The question is can they get far enough ahead as the heat is turned on Labour and UKIP to secure that majority ?I don’t think so at this stage’

    Unfortunately, I think you are probably right, but the disrupting factor at the moment is the Euro poll. There is some evidence that it is boosting the Greens and it might be dampening Labour’s VI a bit. Everything will be a little clearer in six weeks or so, but I still can’t help thinking that Labour should be much further ahead if it is to prevent the Tories being the biggest party

  47. I’m confused by the concluding bit of this FT article on Ireland having lower borrowing costs than UK.

    http://archive.today/aGVH5

    ” The UK Treasury will see higher borrowing costs than Ireland as a sign of success and a gradual return to normalisation of monetary policy. ”

    Can anyone help to explain?

  48. There is often talk on this Board by certain commentators of an anti-Tory tactical vote but I would say there is also a strong Anti-Labour tactical vote as well. I have heard certain people planning to vote LD who would not usually not, for that reason. Maybe our mindset leads each of us to believe everyone is on our political side.

  49. @Oldnat – read the article.

    It says – “Much of the difference in borrowing costs stems, however, from divergent expectations for interest rates, which have a strong influence on shorter-term borrowing costs because investors need to worry less about a country’s ability to repay.”

    And – “After continued strong data in the UK, investors have brought forward their expectations of the first interest rate rise to this coming January or February, having thought the Bank of England would act in May 2015 only a few months ago. In contrast, the European Central Bank is now expected to ease policy next month. ”

    The impact on borrowing costs is a reaction to interest rate expectations. If your central bank is expected to ease rates, that’s a sign that your economy is struggling.

  50. @Marco,

    I think you have a point. There has always been an anti-Labour tactical vote but it’s often masked by the fact that most seats are either Lab-Con (in which case anti-Labour can vote Tory) or Lib-Con (in which case they can vote for whoever they like). Lib-Lab seats are relatively few.

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