The latest YouGov and Populus voting intention polls today have voting intentions of Populus – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs) and YouGov/Sun – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%.

Had a busy day today so haven’t had time to write about it, but if you’ve more time on your hands there’s also an interesting YouGov poll of young people between 17-21 for British Future (British Future’s report is here, the YouGov tables here).

Over on the election guide I’ve also put up the candidates announced so far for the Newark by-election.


93 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus figures”

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  1. Is the post budget bounce back?

  2. Neil A
    No.

    Could be the post EU ‘veto’ bounce back bounce back?

  3. No – this is the bounce bounce.

  4. I thought that it’s a honeymoon period fall for Labour. 1998 to early 2014 was mostly outliers for Labour.

  5. 17-21 suggests non-whites much more likely to vote BNP than whites…

    Obviously the numbers are very low but a bit weird.

  6. “YouGov/British Future Survey Results”

    Scotland (cross break caveats etc.):

    SNP 37%
    Lab 28%
    Con 14%
    Green 12%
    Lib 4%
    UKIP 2%
    Respect 1%
    Other 2%

    Scotland votes doesn’t like that, as it only allows for the four main parties in Scotland, and says that there’s 7% unallocated (Greens on 12% is not planned for I imagine).

    Also noted that Boris gets a mention, but not Salmond.
    Outrageous! :))

  7. Statgeek

    Macbethian cross-breaks? Shame! While a tiny number, it is at least interesting (if wholly unsurprising) that while on many issues young Scots see things in a similar way to the young of England & Wales – and probably like those in NI, Eire, IoM, Channel Is, Netherlands etc, they respond (as all those others do, in the context of their own political environment)

  8. Statgeek,

    I await the resident expert’s judgement on that Lib Dem figure.

    Anyway, quite apart from weighting problems, it’s time that some people head over to a margin of error calculator-

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll-digest/11/margin-of-error-calculator.htm#

    It’s quite something going from philosophy, where there are people who doubt statistical inferences from samples of any size, to a context where people overestimate what can be inferred from samples <200!

  9. Pehaw,

    Occam’s Razor is in place here – they’re joking.

  10. Populus unweighted base;
    Con 31
    Lab 39
    LD 9
    Ukip 21

  11. Interesting looking at Yougov’s own version of the issue tracker.

    Education is above Immigration (!!!!!)

    “Levels of debt” is equal to health

    The environment, tax and Europe are all above Crime, where they don’t feature in the Ipsos top ten (while Crime IS in the Ipsos top ten).

    There is no inflation/prices category, nor inequality, nor wages…

  12. I should add that’s from the British Future tables…

  13. One year until election day. Midterm is definitely over now.

  14. RE: “bouncing”

    I do find Alec’s “bounce bounce” puzzling. Looking at just this year YG seems to have marked dips in Labour lead at the end of Jan and March, followed by rallies; now we have another at the end of April, beginning of May. Underlying this is a gentle decline in the Labour lead, which we all have ideas about, but I can’t really see a reason for the bouncing.

    This could just be psophology, the Martian Canals effect making me see structure where there isn’t any, but I haven’t got the maths to say whether this is so. It doesn’t feel that way though.

  15. Good results for the nationalists in London. The first SNP MP in south London can’t be far off.

  16. @Oldnat / Bill

    Just highlighting that cross break caveats aside, the young of the nation of the North are not in tune with the voting intention of the South. Note that Con, Lib and UKIP are 3rd, 5th and 6th respectively.

    Lib Dems on 4% among younger folk was the ‘shocker’ if indeed we can believe any of that data as representative. I would have expected the younger folk to be more liberal, in general. Certainly, I expected the LDs to score higher than the Conservatives amongst younger folk.

  17. Mr Nameless

    I wonder when the US word “midterm” started to be used in the context of UK elections.

    Congressional elections occurring precisely half way through a fixed Presidential term makes sense. I’m not sure that it makes sense in the UK – especially when the UK decided on a 5 year Westminster cycle, as opposed to the 4 year cycle for other elections.

    Even at that, the word suggests a stable political environment, in which party support will ebb and flow with the regularity of the tides. With the UKIP/Euro election scenario this month, and the Scottish referendum in September, it seems particularly inapposite at the moment.

  18. Bill Patrick

    It may well be that one or more of them are already there! I don’t know where the current SNP MPs have their London accommodation.

  19. Setting aside whether Labour are “far enough ahead” etc, etc. The simple facts do demonstrate a degree of “ebb and flow” in the current parliament.

    Labour gradually caught up with then overtook the Tories, fell back a bit, pulled in front again and then gradually started to decline back towards (but not quite to) parity. So far the approximate “sine-curve-ness” of political support in a parliament seems not far off accurate.

  20. Oldnat,

    They could live like ordinary people and commute from Newcastle.

  21. Statgeek

    ” I would have expected the younger folk to be more liberal, in general”

    Socially more liberal would be the expectation (though in previous generations, the young have rebelled against the liberal attitudes of their parents and become more socially conservative).

    However, there should be no expectation that anyone would associate social liberalism with the behaviour of the current Liberal Democrat Party.

  22. Bill Patrick

    -Under-Lyme, -On-Tyne, New South Wales, An Caisteal Nuadh ? How far do you want them to commute?

  23. Oldnat,

    A new castle by Loch Lomond will do.

    On the updated Scotland votes page, they were very sneaky to ask these two questions-

    ” If Scotland were to become independent, should Scotland share the pound sterling with the rest of the UK in a currency union?

  24. Oldnat,

    A new castle by Loch Lomond will do.

    On the updated Scotland votes page, they were very sneaky to ask these two questions-

    “If Scotland were to become independent, should Scotland share the pound sterling with the rest of the UK in a currency union?”

    “If Scotland were to become independent, should the Bank of England set interest rates in Scotland?”

    I’ll let you guess which one of these basically equivalent scenarios was more popular. Of course, it’s strictly possible that the rUK would say, “Hey, let’s have a currency union, but we can have interest rates set by an intergovermental committee sitting in Bannockburn”. But only possible.

  25. Bill Patrick

    “What’s in a name? That which we call the Bank of England would, by any other name, smell as sweet.”

  26. I was really hoping for the Opinium seeing as we hadn’t seen on yet, but I suppose any poll is better than no poll.

    @MSmithsonPB – New Survation/Mirror Euros poll sees Ukip in lead

    CON 24%
    LAB 28%
    LD 7%
    UKIP 31%

  27. It must be grim being a Lib Dem in this type of by-election, when you know a successful night is not losing so much of your vote share that you walk away without your deposit. Though I suppose a small time candidate can take some joy from being in the spotlight for a while.

  28. Westminster vi from survation: lab 34 con 33 ukip 18 lib 8

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/general-election-2015–ed-3505658

  29. Tories on the point of collapse again I see .

  30. @ Colin,

    Aw, “collapse” seems a bit harsh. It’s only a single digit majority for Labour on UNS, that’s not too bad.

  31. It must be nice to have, if not “right”, at least the voting system on your side…

  32. So I did some further investigation into Pressman’s gender preferences theory, and it seems we ladies are a tough crowd.

    Like I said the other day, compared to men, women are significantly less likely to see Ed Miliband as honest. But he’s actually doing relatively well. We’re significantly less likely than men to see Cameron as honest, a natural leader, good in a crisis, willing to stick to what he believes in, or strong. Oh, and we’re significantly more likely to say he has no good qualities. Clegg gets off lightly by comparison- we’re just significantly less likely to see him as a natural leader.

    Given the sample size was NINE, these results are pretty extraordinary. It’s amazing any of the differences were significant. Some of it may be down gender bias in party preference (women are less likely to be Tory, therefore they are less likely to see Cameron positively), but in most categories we tend to rate all three leaders more poorly, it’s just that for Miliband and Clegg most of the differences aren’t marked enough to be significant at such a low sample size. When they say Westminster culture turns off women, they really weren’t kidding.

    I have of course made some charts. Columns with two dots differ significantly with 99% confidence, columns with a single dot differ with 95% confidence. Everything is color-coded by party. The percentages for women have been scaled up to correspond to the average response rates for men (because women are more likely to answer DK, which would throw off their results).

    http://i.imgur.com/0T4emKE.png

  33. Good morning all. So last two polls show Labour lead down to 1%. Interesting times, it seems clear that the Labour lead and the Labour vote are both dropping now.

  34. The electorate being what it is, the graph for “No redeeming features” needed to be plotted on its own separate axis:

    http://i.imgur.com/L0N5y1B.png

  35. @ Neil A,

    It must be nice to have, if not “right”, at least the voting system on your side…

    Hey, don’t look at us! It was your party that campaigned for it. :p

    Ed wanted AV.

  36. Polls always get interesting before the Euros. Expect a return to standard polldrums thereafter.

  37. @ Raf,

    Yeah, but at what level? Labour never regained the VI they lost last spring.

  38. Has anyone mentioned last night’s Survation ?

    LAB 34%, CON 33%, Ukip 18%, LD 8%.

    The 35% Strategy in tatters ?

  39. Not great polls for Labour. But we need to see what happens in next few to see if they have actually dropped another pointe 2

  40. @Colin

    “The 35% strategy in tatters?”

    Yes, doesn’t seem to be working for the Tories but they don’t appear to have any other ideas.

  41. @ Colin

    The question is how close do you think the Tories can get to 40% in polls before May 2015 ? I can’t see them getting more than 37% at the general election and therefore I don’t see the Tories exceeding this in any polls.

    There are 50 marginals on Labours target list where I believe the majorities held are less than 3000. It is going to be the same as normal, where about 100 seats will decide the outcome in May 2015.

    The additional dimension this time will be UKIP, perhaps getting more votes. How may 2010 Lib Dems will vote for Labour ? Will it be the third that polling currently suggests. Will Labour voters use their votes tactically for Lib Dems ? They have done in the past and local election results show that they are still doing so.

    What is wrong with the Labour strategy to try to obtain about 35% of the vote ? If they manage to obtain 35%, they are likely to win most seats and it might even get them a very small majority. The Tories would need to obtain 38% of votes to stop this happening. For this to happen UKIP would have to decline back down to where they were in 2010, with people going back to Tories to stop Labour winning. This is not impossible.

  42. I can’t believe Labour really have a ‘strategy’ to retain 35% of the turnout. If so it’s a very meagre ambition, which makes a lot of risky assumptions about how everybody else behaves. You can’t simply say that if Labour are on 35% the Tories will need 38% – they might, they might not. Anyway on recent evidence that isn’t unthinkable. Anway UNS isn’t that reliable!

  43. CHRIS RILEY

    Touché-as they say at the TUC Conference .

    :-)

  44. R HUCKLE

    @”The question is how close do you think the Tories can get to 40% in polls ”

    I have no idea.

    Thanks for all the other stuff-no idea about that either.

    After being constantly told that the Tectonic Plates were moving Left, Fundamentals changing, Death of the Tories …..etc etc , I no longer take much notice, because I believe so much is in a state of flux.

    The LibDem 2010 defectors to Lab are not a cohesive lump who will stay there-they are straying to pastures new, and going home too.
    UKIP support seems impervious to criticism or logic & has hammered Cons.

    I feel we need to just let the wave of Farage Fever roll on to May 22nd, pause for breath, then see what the punters are saying about next year.

    Meanwhile , I feel sure that Ed Miliband’s superior ” Intellectual Self-Confidence” will sustain him through these troubling days.

    lol.

  45. ‘What is wrong with the Labour strategy to try to obtain about 35% of the vote ?’

    Nothing, as long as they don’t come crying when it works against them in 2020.

  46. @COLIN ‘UKIP support seems impervious to criticism or logic.’

    It’s the logic that makes it impervious to the criticism.

    Think of them like E-Cigarettes. For decades well meaning people reproved the public on the dangers of smoking. Well-paid posts were created, ink was spilt, but people still kept smoking. Then a new untried innovation came along that seemed to offer a solution and strangely all the experts were discouraging people from trying it. But people said ‘sod that I know smoking’s bad for me, I’m gonna give these new things a try.’ Sophisticated it ain’t, but illogical – nah.

  47. I wonder if it’s slowly dawning on the masses (not us politics geeks on here) that UKIP is a right wing party! and it therefore follows that UKIP plus CON votes are all right of Labour…..and from there the slow inevitable realisation that the whole country has lurched distinctly to the right. This picture will obviously be re-painted in shocking bright colours (for the few who still haven’t seen it) come the Euros . Big question is, once the Euro election hangover has cleared and people have got used to this new right of centre reality, how does it change things re the way they vote/are prepared to vote at the GE?

  48. MR BEESWAX

    Not sure I agree with your metaphor.

    Clearly-for those expressing a VI for UKIP, it is logical to them. Goes without saying. But that doesn’t negate the possibility of illogicality in their position. Cons are trying to expose it -but as I say , it is impervious .

    But I suppose the Protest Vote was ever thus.

    Big question is-is this a passing Protest Vote in a meaningless Election- or is it the Fundamental Change which CB11 so fervently believes in.?

    If it is is the former, then EM could be stuffed next year, because his only progress has been Clegg’s Gift.
    If it is the latter DC is undoubtedly stuffed.

  49. Morning everyone,

    Well the Polls are most certainly tightening a little and Labours VI down from the more regular 38-40 of just a few weeks ago.
    Labours Lead has also narrowed to just 1% in some cases but the Cons are not getting the benefit from Labours small decline
    As people keep on saying – Interesting times!

  50. Mr Beeswax

    Think of them like E-Cigarettes. For decades well meaning people reproved the public on the dangers of smoking. Well-paid posts were created, ink was spilt, but people still kept smoking.

    No they didn’t. The proportion of the population who smoke at least[1] halved between 1974 and 2006.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ghs/general-lifestyle-survey/2011/sty-smoking-report.html

    If anything the drop seems to have tapered off since the introduction of e-cigarettes towards the end of the last decade, though there have been similar plateaus in the past.

    [1] Figures before 1998 weren’t weighted and may have been underestimated by a bit (I suspect not enough younger working-class men – always a difficult group to reach with surveys)

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