The latest YouGov and Populus voting intention polls today have voting intentions of Populus – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs) and YouGov/Sun – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%.

Had a busy day today so haven’t had time to write about it, but if you’ve more time on your hands there’s also an interesting YouGov poll of young people between 17-21 for British Future (British Future’s report is here, the YouGov tables here).

Over on the election guide I’ve also put up the candidates announced so far for the Newark by-election.


93 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus figures”

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  1. @Colin

    My guess is the ‘Bigots’ as Mr Brown euphemistically called them, who left labour for UKIP mostly stay with UKIP come the GE. Of course I’m not implying that Bigots don’t have the intellectual capability to calculate that it’s a wasted vote at the GE, I’m merely…..guessing. The CONs who voted for them at the EURO’s mostly come back at the GE. No comment on their intellectual capability either.

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  2. Your guess is as good as anyone else’s NOSTRA.

    I think I’ll just wait for the OPs next Christmas time & see what Santa Claus brings :-)

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  3. COLIN

    Big question is-is this a passing Protest Vote in a meaningless Election- or is it the Fundamental Change which CB11 so fervently believes in.?

    If it is is the former, then EM could be stuffed next year, because his only progress has been Clegg’s Gift.
    If it is the latter DC is undoubtedly stuffed.

    As usual I suspect the answer is both and the question is what the mixture is. Certainly many of the Lib Dem defectors to Labour[1] and the Conservative’s to UKIP have proved to be stickier than some thought (or hoped). What has been interesting is the complete lack of the usual movement Lab and Con to favour the opposition – indeed today’s YouGov shows about 20 voters moving Con to Lab more than balanced by 30 the other way. Though normally it’s more even, the point is how small it is.

    In part this is a reflection of how badly the Conservatives did in 2010 – they didn’t get enough of the swing vote to start with. But it is also because UKIP has acted as a sponge for dissatisfied voters, including some who the Lib Dems could never gain. The big question is how many will stay with UKIP and if they leave where will they go.

    [1] It’s worth pointing out that most of this movement cannot be either credited to Miliband or blamed on the tuition fee increase. It happened before Miliband was elected and I would argue that he could have done more to gain unattached ex-Lib Dems by promoting their core issues such as civil liberties – admitted contentious when you have a Party full of Blairite control freaks (chronically unable to control themselves).

    Similarly most of the change happened before the announcement of the fees and certainly before the Lib Dem vote on the legislation. Indeed it’s possible that the movement started before the last election as some of those who had voted Lib Dem in 2005 went (back) to Labour and the only thing that buoyed up Clegg’s vote was tactical (if mostly ineffective) Tory votes that went straight back after the election.

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  4. Incidentally, looking at the tables for today’s YouGov:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/isiuqyhooy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-060514.pdf

    I can’t help notice that our old friends Da Yoof are playing up again, showing Con 35%, Lab 34% – somewhat different from the larger poll Anthony quotes (Con 22%, Lab 41%) and indeed what we see normally for YouGov. So there may be a problem there distorting the headline VI by a few points. It may be a Bank Holiday problem, we saw a similar Labour dip after Easter.

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  5. Todays yougov poll is an absolute shocker for Lab

    Only 80% of their supposedly core 2010 vote supporting them

    Only 29% of supposedly left wing ex LD supporting them instead of over a third

    3 points behind Cons with young people

    The only thing a Lab supporter could point to is the smaller percent of non voters amongst 2010 Lab compared to other parties, but that is not always the case, so a further drop is possible.

    “strategy in tatters” indeed!

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  6. Bizarre how people here treat one poll as though its an election result.

    Given ole moe the Tories could even be in the lead but WE DON’T KNOW.

    What we do know is that both parties seem to be trending downwards, labour more so and UKIP are doing well.

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  7. @RM: “I would argue that he could have done more to gain unattached ex-Lib Dems…”

    Would there be much point between elections, though? Labour has (presumably deliberately) announced very few new policies so far. Their opponents have failed to undermine these to any great extent, sometimes even ending up adopting something similar. Meanwhile their policy review grinds on, to be completed in time for when it matters – the 2015 election.

    http://www.yourbritain.org.uk/agenda-2015/policy-review/policy-review

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  8. ““strategy in tatters” indeed!”

    Two observations;

    Firstly, if the strategy is to secure 35% of the vote (and who knows if that is really true), then based on the polls that would seem to be on track, given the Labour polling averages of 34-37%.

    Secondly, you’re getting very excited about what appears to be a YouGov outlier with some unusual crossbreaks. I’d have thought the contributors to this website would at least be aware of the dangers of reading too much into outliers!

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  9. very poor polls for Labour. there is very little enthusiasm for Miliband. the tories will struggle to hold onto enough seats to stay in government. It seems like a dispiriting fight among losers. hence, i suppose, farage’s success at the moment.

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  10. @RosieandDaisie

    that is true, I have seen other yougov polls recently with the 2010 Lab vote higher for Lab and ex LD higher as well and as Roger says the larger poll of young people has Lab doing better

    I just wanted to write the phrase ‘absolute shocker’ which i don’t get the chance to use very often.

    Still when 10pm rolls round tonight there will be a bit of quaking in the boots.

    I am quite warming to Ed M actually, although a lot of my fellow ex 2010 LD seems to be going elsewhere.

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  11. @DRMIBBLES

    One of the many good things about yougov polls is that you only have to wait 24 hours for another one to come along and if the new poll is good for your side then the previous days bad poll ceases to exist,

    conversely if the poll is good one day, then the worry is, will the next one be bad.

    None of these polls really matter until next year, and we won’t be talking about this poll in a months time, just like the parity poll in September has been forgotten.

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  12. @Floating Voter

    “Still when 10pm rolls round tonight there will be a bit of quaking in the boots.”

    I have a feeling we’ll get a Con 33 / Lab 37 poll, or thereabouts. Lab’s lead tends to be obstinate. If the 80% of Lab core statement rings true, that’s 23% solid Lab, with another 10% of folk who shifted from Lib Dem, or have since shifted from Con in the past four years.

    I’ll be amazed if their VI drops below 33%. Having said that, I believe that some of the Con to UKIP switchers will switch back in Con marginals when faced with a Con v Lab in 2015. Most core voters of both parties tend to see things that way, so we’re talking hard-core protesters, hard-core disenchanted, or hard-core Lib / UKIP / SNP / PC (I assume Green will not get re-elected in Brighton, and that UKIP will get at least one seat).

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  13. @ Floating Voter and Others

    There is in fact a poll/assessment today from the respected British Election Study which looks far more important than the latest YG and Populus snapshots.
    It predicts that UKIP will poll 11% at the GE and even more interestingly that 44% of UKIP votes will come from those who voted Conservative in 2010. On my rough maths that would mean a straight loss of 5% of the 2010 Con vote. UKIP are predicted to take 11% of their vote from Labour, which rounds up to -1% for Labour on their 2010 vote.
    On the face if it these figures are chilling for the Conservatives. Labour would happily shed 2 or 3 % more of its 2010 vote to UKIP if it could do so on at such a favourable ratio to Tory desertions.
    Apparently BES have a record of “getting it right” and these predictions follow months of objective research. Not that this makes them
    Infallible of course. But I would say these really are the most interesting figures since Lord A’s last look at the marginals

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  14. Peter Crawford,

    Well-put. Both of the main parties are doing terribly, especially given the unpopularity of the Lib Dems, but my pick for the 2015 winner is Labour because Labour can win a majority even when they do badly, as in 2005.

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  15. A fascinating piece of research by the British Election Study released today. It’s looking at the UKIP vote, how it’s comprised and, crucially, how resilient it is likely to be between now and May 2015. The study has analysed data based on an online sample of more than 20,000 people surveyed during February and March. Headline findings were: –

    -Support for the UK Independence Party will fall after this month’s European elections but by a much smaller margin than it has in the past

    – Almost 60% of people planning to vote for UKIP in this month’s elections also intend to do so at the 2015 general election. The equivalent figure in 2009 was 25%.

    – UKIP will attract 11% of the total vote in the general election, up from 3.1% in 2010.

    – Those intending to vote for UKIP this month are also more certain about how they will vote in the general election than they were a year before the last general election.

    – Only 10% of people who said they intended to vote UKIP in the European Parliament elections and again in the general election said they were anything but certain about their plans.

    – Of those people intending to vote UKIP in 2015, 44% voted Conservative in 2010, 17% voted Liberal Democrat, 11% voted Labour and 11% didn’t vote for anyone.

    For those who’d like to read more: –

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27306444

    My first reaction was, Jeez, there are some very cosy assumptions being blown away here.

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  16. If I’m reading that Opinium poll correctly, the Labour lead is at 2%, with the Tories on 32% and Labour on 34%.

    The Tories are higher now than I would expect (averaging about 33%) whereas Labour are about where I would expect. What will make the difference, I think, is the vulnerability of the Tories on their right flank to UKIP, coupled with their limited opportunities for progress on their left flank due to austerity.

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  17. Dreadful for the LibDems (again).

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  18. @welsn borderer

    thanks for this

    Does it mention the LD vote and the LD to Lab switchers?

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  19. In regard to Nationalisation polling, it is interesting to note that Tory voters would support the following being back in the public sector. Energy, Water, Trains and the Royal Mail.

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  20. @Rogerh

    the scores for the LD’s are continuous 4 year absolute shocker

    @Toonie

    and isn’t the Opinium poll the one from last sunday week in the Observer newspaper

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  21. Does seem a bit odd that 25% of Tories would like to nationalise the car industry.

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  22. “@ rogerh

    Does seem a bit odd that 25% of Tories would like to nationalise the car industry. ”

    Perhaps some communists vote Tory for other policy reasons. Or perhap these were older people with poor eyesight/ hearing and thought that the key word was ‘care’.

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  23. rogerh

    Would there be much point between elections, though? Labour has (presumably deliberately) announced very few new policies so far.

    It’s not just about announced policies, which are always vague in any case. It’s about how you react to events, vote on legislation and what you make a fuss about. These things build up an image that will attract people and reassure them things will go the right way if they vote for you.

    Labour has been too willing to tread water up to now and too scared of getting attacked if it doesn’t always go along with the Westminster consensus. I suspect they’ve felt they can always reel in likely voters with policies nearer to 2015, but it is easier to keep people once you have attracted them than to try to grab them at the last minutes.

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  24. Statgeek,

    “I’ll be amazed if their VI drops below 33%.”

    I’d be surprised, but not amazed. It has been a long time since Labour faced a party that could effectively appeal to the voters that UKIP can appeal to, and as we move from a three party system to a four party system we must expect the core votes of the previous three parties to drop. The same thing happened in Scotland when we moved to a four party system: the Tories didn’t even fall below 40% in Scotland in 1945, and they haven’t been above 40% since 1964.

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  25. rogerh

    Prospective tory voters are not necessarily “Tories” to the core, any more than other party supporters are with regard to the party they will vote for.

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  26. If Anthony is watching, here’s a post after your own heart:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-matter-of-emphasis/

    I haven’t checked the data, so am taking their claims at face value (on the assumption that they will look very silly if they are wrong).

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  27. @RHUCKLE

    “Or perhap these were older people with poor eyesight/ hearing and thought that the key word was ‘care’.”

    That one caused a genuine guffaw here. It even woke the cat. Thank you :-)

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  28. @ROGERH

    “Does seem a bit odd that 25% of Tories would like to nationalise the car industry…”

    ———

    But then they could sell it off again and get more cheap shares….

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  29. “One of the many good things about yougov polls is that you only have to wait 24 hours for another one to come along and if the new poll is good for your side then the previous days bad poll ceases to exist,

    conversely if the poll is good one day, then the worry is, will the next one be bad.”

    ————-

    And it’s intermittent reinforcement, a powerful road to addiction…

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  30. “I haven’t checked the data, so am taking their claims at face value (on the assumption that they will look very silly if they are wrong).”

    ——–

    Well as I pointed out to you, their analysis on EU voting left something to be required….

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  31. or desired, even…

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  32. I refer the right honourable posters to my (in fact many contributers) posts a week a 2 ago.

    The UKIP will enjoy a Euro-Poll related surge in GE VI which will subside gently right up to polling day.

    Labour can be sanguine about the apparent current lower VI and it seems that the recent UKIP surge is coming more (or at least as much) from Labour as the previous surges.

    Colin/RM – the Milliband ‘intellectual’ vision thing is design to contrast with DC saying I want to be PM because I would be good at it and imo targetting at 2010 LDs who have principles beyond pragmatism.

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  33. ‘And it’s intermittent reinforcement, a powerful road to addiction…’

    It is addictive, UKpollingreport is addictive too and I am not even interested in party politics that much.

    All overseen by an all powerful figure, who can make you disappear with a flick of his finger and whose word is law.

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  34. @Carfrew

    Feel free to delve into the data, and let us know.

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  35. ROGER MEXICO

    @” It’s worth pointing out that most of this movement cannot be either credited to Miliband or blamed on the tuition fee increase”

    You make an interesting point about credit to EM for this movement. He was elected leader in September 2010, by which time, the YouGov data ( OP & Graph) on this site , shows the damage to have been done.

    This puts his personal impact on Labour VI well and truly in perspective.

    With regard to the reasons for the defection , what I described as “Clegg’s Gift” was not meant to refer solely to tuition fees.
    The YouGov Poll graph on UKPR shows that the defection began imediately after the GE, and was complete by the calender year end.
    One presumes it was a reaction to joining the Coalition in the main-and as you say, yet another factor which was not influenced by EM.

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  36. JIM JAM

    @” the Milliband ‘intellectual’ vision thing is design to contrast with DC saying I want to be PM because I would be good at it and imo targetting at 2010 LDs who have principles beyond pragmatism.”

    Yes- I could see that in the article.

    But it is now a sound-byte divorced from any context .
    And like all such unwise remarks by politicians , will undoubtedly be used against him.

    ( already has today in fact )

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  37. Coiln – not sure that the short term sound-byte (in a forum we cant discuss, quite rightly) will resonate with the target group.

    Ed message may not either but at least it is in an attempt and one I am comfortable with.

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  38. @STATGEEK

    “Feel free to delve into the data, and let us know.”

    ———–

    Thank you for that fabulous offer Statty, but conventionally it might be considered your responsibility to check the data you post? Anyway the sun’s come out and I haven’t had a coffee for three days…

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  39. @FLOATING VOTER

    “It is addictive, UKpollingreport is addictive too and I am not even interested in party politics that much.

    All overseen by an all powerful figure, who can make you disappear with a flick of his finger and whose word is law”

    ———-

    I’m not much for the party thing either… I learnt my lesson from following footie league tables. But then my team started doing rather badly and the reinforcement wasn’t so intermittent any more. In fact, there barely any positive reinforcement at all…

    And yes he can disappear your post, but the essence of it remains, an imprint on the cosmic, karmic fabric of the universe, ripples through the aether, captured in the vacuum energy of space, gnawing away at his soul, keeping him awake at night…

    (Alternatively, he might just put on Game of Thrones and forget all about it…)

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  40. Quite a dramatic statement from Putin in support of Ukraine presidential election.

    Money talks it seems.

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  41. @COLIN: “You make an interesting point about credit to EM for this movement. He was elected leader in September 2010, by which time, the YouGov data ( OP & Graph) on this site , shows the damage to have been done. This puts his personal impact on Labour VI well and truly in perspective.”

    But it also puts in perspective the lack of importance of a leader’s personality. Most LibDems switched to Labour when it didn’t even have an elected leader and stayed there despite the election of the supposedly unpopular Ed Miliband. It doesn’t suggest there’ll be any mileage to be gained from targeting him.

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  42. [Snip] latest yougov poll shows return of 3% lead.[] Polls will go up and down and whilst interesting – to some of us – the only poll results to really get excited about and draw definitive conclusions from are the one’s when ballot boxes emptied and votes counted.

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