There are two new YouGov polls today – one in the Sunday Times, one in the Sun on Sunday. The Sunday Times poll concentrates on the current political agenda (in this case mostly UKIP, racism and Ed Miliband’s rent controls) and the Sun on Sunday on the wider political landscape.

Westminster voting intention figures both show Labour leads of three points. YouGov/Sunday Times has CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, YouGov/Sun on Sunday have CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%.

European voting intention figures both have UKIP narrowly ahead of Labour. YouGov/Sunday Times has CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 29%, GREEN 8%. YouGov/Sun on Sunday has CON 23%, LAB 26%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 29%, GRN 7%. Note the Greens ahead of the Lib Dems in the Sunday Times poll – the first time we’ve seen that. Looking at the multiple YouGov Europe polls this week the broader picture seems to be that UKIP and Labour are neck-and-neck in first place, Conservatives are third, Lib Dems and Greens are neck-and-neck for fourth place.

Both the polls had questions on which party people prefer on various issues. The questions were actually different (the Sunday Times asked about best policy, the Sun on Sunday asked about trust), but the patterns were much the same – the Conservatives lead on economic growth and crime, Labour lead on prices and on public services, UKIP lead on immigration.

The Sun on Sunday also had some leadership questions. David Cameron is way ahead on being suited to the job of Prime Minister, being good in a crisis, being a strong leader and representing Britain abroad. He has a more modest lead on having the best ideas for the country, and comes just ahead of Ed Miliband on being likeable. Ed Miliband is seen as the most honest of the party leaders. Nigel Farage and Ed Miliband come joint top on being seen as in touch.

The Sun on Sunday asked people what they though the best and worst things the coalition government had done were. The government’s best achievements were seen as the £10000 personal tax allowance (39%), the benefit cap (28%), freezing fuel duty (24%), cutting the deficit (22%) and same-sex marriage (20%). The worst things are seen as the bedroom tax (35%), tuition fees (28%), privatising royal mail (27%), increasing VAT (19%) and cutting the 50p top tax rate (19%).

The Sunday Times poll had some more extensive questions about UKIP and the accusations against them in recent weeks. A majority (58%) of respondents did think that UKIP were more likely to have candidates with racist or offensive views than other parties, but on expenses they didn’t think they were any different from the other political parties.

Even if people think the criticisms of UKIP are fair, they don’t necessarily diminish their support. 60% think the accusations about some of UKIP’s candidates being racist or extreme are fair… but only 21% say it has damaged their view of UKIP. 57% say that the accusations that they’d fiddled their expenses are fair… but only 22% say it’s damaged their opinion of UKIP. My guess is that because most people aren’t voting UKIP with the idea that they are going to form a government tomorrow these thing don’t necessarily matter – they are a way of registering a message about immigration and Europe and the political establishment… so it doesn’t really matter if they attract a few oddballs (and indeed, nothing burnishes the impression of being anti-establishment than having the establishment constantly attack you).

Touching on Newark and Nigel Farage, only 18% think he should have stood in Newark and a majority of UKIP voters (54%) think he was right not to.

Finally 56% support the idea of governments introducing rent controls, 33% would rather landlords were free to set their rents (YouGov asked about the broad principle of rent control, rather than the specifics of Labour’s policy). More generally 56% think Ed Miliband is right to suggest more government intervention on things like energy prices and rents, 29% think it’s the wrong direction and governments should generally leave prices to the market.


438 Responses to “Two YouGov Sunday polls”

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  1. No I tried again with asterisks but it still will not work. I’m beat.

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  2. I think we’ve established that NewsUK are likely to say lots of rude things about Ed Miliband in the run up to the next election… I don’t think it’s a discussion we need to repeat on a nightly basis, thank you all very much.

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  3. Oh please, describing Labour’s proposals as “rent control” is very very strong. It’s shifting some costs forwards.

    That a majority are in favour of rent control without reference to Labour’s specifically….is telling. And interesting.

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  4. @Howard

    I already explained. Sorry if you can’t understand it but anyway it was just one post, quoting a politician, about electoral strategy. It wasn’t exactly laced with controversy concerning hot-button issues. It didn’t even cover something more mildly off-limits, like BBC bias. I don’t think it makes sense to make more and more posts about a single relatively benign post you didn’t care for…

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  5. “I think we’ve established that NewsUK are likely to say lots of rude things about Ed Miliband in the run up to the next election… I don’t think it’s a discussion we need to repeat on a nightly basis, thank you all very much.”

    ……… and thank you for making that clear Anthony. It does seem to have very little to do with the aims of your site.

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  6. @Pressman

    In effect, you are acknowledging that press influence is limited by what parties offer, if it depends on a populist budget in the end. I’d have thought leaving it till spring was a bit risky tho’…

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  7. Thanks AW.
    I notice, that as we enter the last year, a lot of MPs are making what might be termed parochial campaigns. You notice this if you follow a national issue, such as transport (as I do) and by getting feeds just on e.g. that subject, you see how they are furiously lining up on anything that will go down well, they hope, with the local news outlets. The same applies even more to the PPCs.

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  8. Right, lads, now let’s get started on the Mail.

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  9. Postage included
    i have no issues with my postman, he’s wonderful.

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  10. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead down to just one point: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

    Must be a sample containing more than average for SNP, Greens etc.

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  11. or it could be the Labour vote is falling…… just saying….. ;)

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  12. 8 points is about normal for ‘Others’.

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  13. R Huckle

    Unfortunately, at 92% for the 4 main English parties, that’s the same percentage as these 4 got in the last YG/Sun poll.

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  14. still looking for crossover, when the tories actually are in the lead…

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  15. It would be extremely ironic if there was a poll showing Tories ahead in the same month they get beaten into a poor third place in the Euros.

    Would that be a “good” month or a “bad” month for Cameron?!

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  16. @Postageincluded

    “Right, lads, now let’s get started on the Mail.”

    Why don’t you open your post in the morning like everyone else does? :-)

    @John Pilgrim

    I read your earlier post and appreciate your comments about something I wrote many years ago about my lingering affection for Catholic religious rituals. You don’t owe me an apology at all and, if I remember rightly, I was writing about the former Pope’s visit to Cofton Park in Birmingham in 2010 for the beatification of Cardinal Newman and how I became transfixed watching the Mass on television. An agnostic now, but no convinced atheist, I was moved by the old timeless hymns, chants, prayers and rituals. It reminded me of the power of religious faith, still a potent force in our world.

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  17. Conservative election communication South East arrived today.

    David Cameron front and centre, eurosceptic tone… but the amusing bit is the photo:

    “Prime Minister David Cameron with South East Conservative candidates [candidates 1-10]… *not in picture Daniel Hannan (1).”

    Can we assume the leaflet isn’t quite eurosceptic enough for him?

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  18. @RAF

    “There’s been much talk of a 35% strategy. However, much of the reason why Labour are stuck on 37%ish is that EM has yet to convince his base. If he could do so, Labour could get to 40% and his popularity ratings could improve.”

    ——–

    Well, it is possible that 35% IS his base. The rise of immigration as an issue and its outlet via UKip kinda forces lower shares on the other parties…

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  19. Lately, I’ve noticed every time someone tweets a half-decent UKIP score at least one Scottish person pops up to remind everyone how life and death the YES vote is.

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  20. UNS produces an OM of 4. Don’t get excited, after the EU election, then we’ll see a difference, I suspect. Well, for a while.

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  21. CROSSBAT11………I get the same feeling watching Chelsea, not so much recently, but, like the RC Church, we’re in transition. :-)

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  22. Stan J

    How do you know how the rUK referendum in 2017 will be phrased? It may be that “No” is the vote required to get rid of that damn foreign control. :-)

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  23. To the best of my knowledge, the 1923 Labour government holds the record for forming a government with a very low percentage of the vote (31%).

    I don’t think that Miliband will beat that record, but it looks like he’ll come close, and I still think he’ll have an OM due to the Tories losing votes to UKIP during the campaign.

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  24. Half-decent UKIP poll tonight. Life and death for the Yes vote, that is.

    (awright Stan…keeping you happy)

    I’ll be interested to see if this is a shift or MoE / sampling.

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  25. I suppose the next shift before crossover would be literally neck a neck polling not sure it is going to happen but we have now seen one populus poll showing the two parties neck and neck interesting times

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  26. Interesting news from the budget. That big pension policy of allowing the full withdrawal of pension pots as cash contains a nasty barb.

    Pre 2007 you could start to draw down pensions aged 50, which rose to 55 under Brown. In this budget, Osborne raised this to 57 from 2028 (making it 10 years below state pension age) but the consultation details show the government is minded to reduce this to 5 years, which the state pension age rising all the while.

    Basically this means that people aged 40 ish won’t be able to access any of their pensions – either as income or lump sum – until they are 63 at least. This cuts off all notions of freeing up cash to help your children until you are yourself on the brink of retirement, and it also makes the idea of a staged retirement very hard to imagine for most people.

    It also somewhat undercuts the idea of people doing what they want with their money – the government has just locked it all away for another 8 years.

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  27. Also, it now looks like the September referendum is not one that Labour can afford to lose.

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  28. @Howard, Crossbat

    I did use a capital letter for “Mail”. Bah. Spoilsports.

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  29. As Arsene Wenger is fond of saying “Life is motion.”

    We can’t foresee the future and everything is fluid: it may well be that, in the unlikely event Scotland votes “yes” that Labour supporters in rUK will be more energised to vote Labour.

    Or it may not.

    Quien sabe?

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  30. Interesting to hear Cable tell the HoC that the government doesn’t want to turn the UK into a tax haven, while senior Treasury officials are boasting to Telegraph journalists that the UK is now the worlds largest tax haven and that it’s ‘brilliant’ and guarantees the City retains world no 1 finance centre spot.

    This suggests the Treasury is stuck in the old mindset, but I did wonder if Cable’s words were aimed at his Tory colleagues.

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  31. @EWEN LIGHTFOOT

    “Carfrew and others The Tory ad promising an ‘In-Out’ referendum brings to mind the slang from Anthony Burgess’ novel ‘A Clockwork Orange’…”

    ———–

    It’s ads for Tesco clubcard points at the mo’. I’m trying to think of a Kubrick reference but it’s a tricky one. 2001 was talking computers, manned voyages to Jupiter… I don’t know that any of the Scifi mavens predicted loyalty cards and a few pence off one’s weekly petrol fill-up…

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  32. @R&D

    With you on that, Paul, life is all contingency.

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  33. “This suggests the Treasury is stuck in the old mindset, but I did wonder if Cable’s words were aimed at his Tory colleagues.”

    ———

    Doubt they’d listen. He’s served his purpose…

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  34. Noofred.

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  35. @Carfrew

    What SciFi writers didn’t predict would fill a very big book, and what they predicted that didn’t happen would fill a library.

    My youthful enthusiasm for the genre has left me with a healthy dislike of predictions of all sorts.

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  36. @Postage

    Read an article recently in which Asimov was said to have done quite well, but yeah, I know what you mean. We don’t have our jetpacks or flying cars yet….

    (We’ve got loyalty cards though…)

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  37. @Postage

    Read an article recently in which Asimov was said to have done quite well on the predictions front, but yeah, I know what you mean. We don’t have our jetpacks or fly-ing cars yet….

    (We’ve got loyalty cards though…)

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  38. CB11
    ” the power of religious faith, still a potent force in our world.”

    Anent (as Frankie Howerd used to say – may his soul rest in all eternity) the declarations of the PM and the former Archbish, it is precisely religious faith, and specifically Christian faith (which, agnostic as you are, you and my old vicar, in respect of the Apostolic Creed , will agree is meaningless nonsense) which is the problem, belonging as a matter of reasoning to the Dark Ages. Specifically so in the reference to the Crusades which Bush invoked in pursuing Al Qaidar in Iraq and Afghanistan, followed by the sainted Tony, or in the attacks by the Tea Party on Obamacare.
    Actually, you wrote about stepping in to an empty church and kneeling in a moment’s quiet cotemplation. Whether in such moments, which are good for the soul, or in the family rituals of marriage, christening and funerals, or the marking of the annual cycle which associates seasonal celebrations with Lent, Easter and Xmas, it is not faith that Christianity as she is spoke demands, but participation and ritual, not belief but functionality.
    This is how we mark out the cycles and sources of a Christan life, as Muslims do with Id and Ramaddhan and the Haj.
    I agree with Cameron that we are a Christian country. I fear that it is the priesthood and the unreasoning sanctifying of faith, a trahison des clercs, which both keeps us out the the church, and which feeds the dark side of contemporary Christianity in public life and politics. Whether Iraq or the Masonic handshake with which senior police officers may in the recent dark past have turned a blind eye to paedophilia and sexual trafficking.

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