Just catching up on a couple of polls over the last few days.

Friday’s two Westminster voting intention polls from YouGov and Populus were YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14% (tabs) and Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14% (tabs).

There was also a YouGov/Channel 4 Scottish poll in the week, showing very little change from the previous YouGov referendum poll in March. YES is on 37%(nc), NO is on 51%(-1) (tabs. Excluding don’t knows this works out at YES 42%, NO 58% – exactly the same as a month ago. This, incidentally, produced some superbly inept reporting from the Daily Mail, well deserving of my much sought after “Crap Media Reporting of Polls” award: Campaign against independence soars to 16 point lead. Apparently there has been a “surge” in support for the Union following “growing anger over Putin praise”. That’ll be a surge from 58% to 58% then.

There is also a new YouGov poll of European voting intentions, conducted for the Green party. Topline figures there are CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8% (tabs)

Finally there was a Survation poll of London (tabs) which had toplines for the European election in London of CON 21%, LAB 39%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 20%, GRN 7% and for the London local elections of CON 26%, LAB 42%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 11%.


156 Responses to “Round up of polling from the last few days”

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  1. KeithP

    It’s not “more like asking what they think everyone else will put theirs”

    It is exactly “asking what they think everyone else will put theirs”.

    How people think others are thinking is actually quite useful. A number of actual decisions will be influenced by how people think others will vote.

    For example, polling in Scotland suggests that referendum votes by a number of people would shift if they think X would win a Westminster election.

    Obviously, “wisdom” polls are measuring something different from normal “how would you vote” polls, but measuring something different, differently isn’t necessarily wrong.

    As I would discover if I assumed that I could substitute litres for grams in a recipe! :-)

  2. @Number Cruncher

    Oh yeah, I’m not really surprised. I just thought the Lib Dems would probably keep their head above water (particularly on the day).

    So we definitely have two polls then?

  3. Mr NL, I have no idea what the the reaction would be! But even on these numbers, given a UNS, they would only keep their two MEPs.

    By my reckoning, they would need a 2-3 more points to get an extra seat in each of SW, NW, East and Yorks and Humber. And remember this is only if the Lib Dems really do only get 7%

    Not saying that’s impossible, but no poll numbers yet back up their claim, unless they think they can outperform the national swing by that much in ALL four of those regions.

  4. It’s election season, we’ll be seeing a lot more of this kind of ‘reality-building’ from the media. The same thing happened in the US in their last election, their media needed the narrative to be gripping so everything became “neck and neck” even when the actual situation was nothing of the sort.

  5. @ Stan J – I don’t know… I’m sure Anthony will clear it all up in due course! I hope he does ;)

  6. @CATMANJEFF

    “Surely ‘the wisdom index’ isn’t wisdom of any sort, but the random guess of a bunch of people.

    Does anyone actually take it seriously?”

    ———

    Well it’s quite useful as a guide to what a bunch of people randomly guess…

  7. Carfrew

    But what “a bunch of people randomly guess” about how others think may influence how they think.

    Not everyone has your ability to totally disengage from personal perceptions, and make every judgment purely on objective evidence (and your heavy, and risky, investment in the Thorium market).

  8. @ALEC

    How much more personal do you want to get?

  9. @Oldnat

    Lol, I was already on that page… I agree with your earlier post on the matter!!

    I’m not sure about investment opportunities in Thorium, because the Chinese are now making the running on this, and it is not something liable to see quick returns. I think there may be some small American outfits looking to make money a bit more quickly, by using Thorium reactors to create the decay products, which potentially have a lot of value in themselves – e.g. medical uses – then using the proceeds to finance the development of the process of getting the energy out.

    Finally, on a lighter note, I can’t help noticing your interest in using litres rather than grammes, in the light of Salmond’s comment ablut drinking the other day…

  10. Carfrew

    “ablut drinking”

    The health risks of excessive drinking by Scots is well known, hence the moves to limit the damage.

    However, “ablut” suggests that you may well have to consider the damage being done to your own mental processes by excessive Thorium exposure/consumption (on a lighter note, of course!)

  11. @Oldnat

    Nah, I just leave a typo in every now and then to keep you busy…

  12. Carfrew

    Thank you for your consideration but, unlike your good self, I have lots of things to keep me busy at the moment. :-)

  13. @oldnat

    Yes, agreed, clearly you are busy… with typos!! Anyways, night night Oldnat…

  14. Nytol. I’ll have to be up early to get my copy of the Sunday Herald before it sells out.

    Interesting coverage of the story on BBC News Channel. Host happily admits to not knowing who Alasdair Gray is (how long does it take him/a researcher to Google the name?) and commentators are surprised to find that they in London have misunderstood the whole debate all along! Quelle surprise, as our old allies would say).

  15. carfrew

    p.s. is anyone else getting the “Vote Conservative” banner? I mean, I’ve been browsing Gizmodo, but I didn’t think that was a hotbed of Conservativism

    I think what you get depends not just on your browsing history and preferences and location[1], but also the particular site and page you are on. For example when visiting UKPR I have recent been bombarded with ads for storage[2]. Obviously the Thorium Marketing Board has yet to get its Google ads act together.

    [1] Coming from a Manx ISP, a lot of the time they’re not quite sure what to send me (not being .uk). The Guardian in particular tends to display an odd mixture of US-based fast foods and Dutch animal charities (unless there’s some sort of supplier-customer thing going on).

    [2] This is true.

  16. OldNat

    I’ll have to be up early to get my copy of the Sunday Herald before it sells out

    Well obviously it’s worth it just for the wee lions playing bagpipes. (Some of us do know who Alasdair Gray is)

  17. Interestingly, if there is a Euro poll in the ST, it will mean that there have been five polls in a row in which YouGov have asked Euro VI. That must mean a sample of pushing 10k, enough to get decent properly weighted sample for each of the regions. Any chance Anthony?

  18. YouGov for the Sun on Sunday // Sunday Times- Westminster

    Con…….. 33 // 33
    Lab……… 36 // 36
    LD……… 10 //.. 9
    UKIP……. 15 // 15
    SNP/PCY. 3 //.. 3
    Green……. 2 //.. 4
    BNP………. 1 //.. 0
    Other……… 0 //.. 0

    Approval -22 // -22

    YouGov for the Sun on Sunday // Sunday Times // (Sunday Times LTV 10/10) – Euro

    Con…….. 23 // 22 // ( 20 ) ..Con
    Lab……… 26 // 28 // ( 26 ) ..Lab
    LD……… 10 //.. 7 //.. ( 7 ) ..LD
    UKIP……. 29 // 28 // ( 34 ) .UKIP
    SNP/PCY. 3 //.. 3 //.. ( 3 ) ..SNP/PCY
    Green……. 7 //.. 8 //.. ( 9 ) . Green
    BNP………. 1 //.. 1 //.. ( 0 ).. BNP
    Other…….. 1 //.. 1 //.. ( 1 ).. Other

    Lots of other questions on both sets of tabs at the YouGov site.

  19. It is difficult to predict how many seats parties with 7-10% of the vote share on a Great Britain-wide basis will win in the Euro elections in each of the regional constituencies, particularly in England. I am not aware of any English regional polls outside London (other than X-breaks, which are notoriously unreliable) – please enlighten me if there are any.

    Except for the North-East (3) and the South-East (10), the regional constituencies in England elect 5-8 representatives to the EP and the threshold for election is typically between 8 and 12%. Results depend on how the votes split in each constituency, e.g. the BNP just scraped in last time in NW England with the final seat on 8% of the vote, denying another minor party (the Greens) a seat for this region.

    I suspect that the LDs, with greater variation in regional support, will retain a few seats, but the Greens will be lucky to have 2 seats and may have none, although the larger SE constituency is likely to give them a reasonable chance of keeping one.

    In England, if individuals want to be sure that their vote will contribute to electing a representative to the EP, and not let an extremist minor party in, then their choice is restricted to the major parties – Con/Lab/UKIP.

  20. In England, if individuals want to be sure that their vote will contribute to electing a representative to the EP, and not let an extremist minor party in, then their choice is restricted to the major parties – Con/Lab/UKIP.

    …thus rendering the PR system for MEPs another supporting the status quo like GE and council elections.

    No thanks.

    The status quo needs seriously bringing down a peg or too, not support.

  21. “I think what you get depends not just on your browsing history and preferences and location[1], but also the particular site and page you are on. For example when visiting UKPR I have recent been bombarded with ads for storage[2].”

    ———

    See, there’s another reason to talk about storage right there. To displace the referendum ads…

  22. Polls including the ICM poll in the Telegraph making me very comfortable with my prediction of the 2015 election result. The economic questions in the Sun and Sunday Times polls seem very supportive of my view.

  23. @DaoDao

    Actually (and I haven’t worked through the maths exactly) I suspect that there are a number of circumstances where this just isn’t true.

    Under d’ Hondt the contest for the last seat in a region might be, for example, be between the third candidate of MajorParty, and the first candidates of MinorParty and ExtremistParty. If you voted for MajorParty then your vote has been divided by three at this stage, if you voted for MinorParty then it is a full vote. If it comes down to the wire voting for MajorParty to exclude ExtremistParty might actually let them in…

  24. Looking at the ST YG poll tables today and answers to questions, my instinct is that some people don’t think Labours recent announcments e.g rent controls, will actual lead to a better qualify of life. And could possibly make matters worse.

    I think Miliband is going to have to be very careful when making speeches about policies that Labour are looking into. When it involves anything that looks left wing because it relates to government meddling with markets, then they will have most of the media against them. Not to mention their political opponents and interest groups.

    It would be interesting what the polling results would reveal, if they asked questions about government controls on markets, as to what people are comfortable with. Do people want sensible controls that help them or do they want free markets where demand and supply will dictate price/conditions ?

  25. ToH – I think you would accept that I am readier to accept your views on the 2015 GE outcome as being possible more than most on here.

    The Wisdom Index, though, if anything contradicts you in that it is essentially asking what people think the vote will be in 2015 not what they will vote.

    I would say perhaps 38% Con, 35% Labour for example which actually is 4% better for the Tories.

    The move in this index reflects perhaps that with Elections in the offing a few more people (and wisdom index respondents) than normal are taking notice of political news, polls etc and with the extra consideration are more likely to factor in typical final year movements.

    RM – prefer Kelman

  26. @R Huckle

    “I think Miliband is going to have to be very careful when making speeches about policies that Labour are looking into. When it involves anything that looks left wing because it relates to government meddling with markets, then they will have most of the media against them. Not to mention their political opponents and interest groups.”

    Shock Horror!

  27. JIMJAM

    I agree with you, I was just considering all three polls and especially how the public see the most important economic questions.

  28. RM – 3/1 on a Conservative majority doesn’t really appeal at this stage given the numbers needed to achieve that. Let’s see how the bookies react when Cameron edges ahead in a few months time. Tories will be delighted to see another poll showing them at 35% – that’s a great position for a governing party to be in with 1 year to go.

  29. From the Telegraph…

    “Some Conservative MPs fear that Labour has been keeping quiet recently to allow Ukip to dominate the political agenda, to the cost of the Tories.

    “I think Labour are just holding back,” one Conservative MP said. “Labour’s silence is partly because they are thinking, ‘as long as Ukip are in the headlines, that damages the Tories.’”

    Polling in the marginal seats suggests that strong backing for Mr Farage would split the right-wing vote, taking enough support away from the Tories to allow Labour into power in next year’s election.

    Tories are also concerned that their party is less prepared for the “ground war” over the next 12 months than Labour.

    Ed Miliband’s officials now say their activists have knocked on 1.5 million doors in the party’s 106 target seat areas since January this year.

    Labour has installed candidates in 104 of its 106 target seats, while full-time, paid community organisers are also now at work in 102.

    All that’s required for Labour to be the largest party next year – a platform for a potential coalition with Nick Clegg – is a national swing of just 1.75 per cent.

    For the Tories, the picture appears less clear. Analysis by this newspaper suggests that the Conservatives have so far failed to choose candidates in almost one third of their top target seats with just 12 months left before polling day.

    While Mr Miliband has 98 per cent of his new parliamentary candidates already in place, the Conservatives have vacancies in up to 30 per cent of their most winnable marginal seats.”

    And…

    ” Andrew Bridgen, the Conservative MP for North West Leicestershire, said: “How can you attack if you haven’t even got a candidate in place? There is no focal point. You can’t put leaflets out. This needs to be done otherwise how can you make an impact on the ground in less than 12 months?

    “Unless you are a very well known local, you risk being seen as a Johnny-come-lately and the public do not like that.”

  30. “@ norbold

    @R Huckle

    “I think Miliband is going to have to be very careful when making speeches about policies that Labour are looking into. When it involves anything that looks left wing because it relates to government meddling with markets, then they will have most of the media against them. Not to mention their political opponents and interest groups.”

    Shock Horror! ”

    Just making the point that Miliband should be careful, with perhaps more public consultation and discussions with interest groups, before policies are announced ahead of an election. Some of the interest groups won’t agree, but atleast they had a chance to be consulted. Making announcements about policies before any consultation, just means that the policy is not properly considered, before announcement.

  31. CARFREW.
    Good Morning to you, and thank you for your very interesting, and, for Labour sympathisers, cheerful post.

  32. @ the Sheep

    There is a great risk if one votes for a minor party of that vote being completely wasted, even in semi-proportional systems. That is what happened to votes for the FDP in the 2013 German GE, which should have resulted in Merkel (the EU’s effective boss) ceasing to be Reichskanzler if the SDP had not been stupid and had been willing to lead a coalition with the other 2 main left-of-centre parties – the Greens are a major party in Germany.

    @ Catmanjeff

    At the Euro elections, if one wishes to do so, the most effective way to bring down the status quo is to vote UKIP and help it top the poll.

    Similarly in Scotland on 18/9/14, the most effective way to bring down the status quo is to vote YES.

    I am not endorsing either of these preferences, but merely pointing out the best way to upset the status quo.

    Together with the relegation of PC in Wales to the status of a minor party, this would lead to a radically changed political situation for the rUK. On current polling figures, Labour would be unlikely to win an overall majority in the 2015 GE, the future of the 6 counties within rUK would become much less certain, and Westminster could treat Wales with contempt as just an appendage of England.

  33. @R Huckle

    “I think Miliband is going to have to be very careful when making speeches about policies that Labour are looking into. When it involves anything that looks left wing because it relates to government meddling with markets, then they will have most of the media against them. Not to mention their political opponents and interest groups.

    No mater what Miliband said these same groups would after him

  34. @ Carfrew

    A very interesting comment with which I concur. I know one of the Labour PPCs for a marginal seat, for whom on the ground campaigning has become a second job (supported by a paid party activist) since being selected nearly 2 years ago. In my view, the only thing that could stop Labour winning an OM in 2015 is Scotland’s secession from the UK.

  35. @R Huckle

    “I think Miliband is going to have to be very careful when making speeches about policies that Labour are looking into. When it involves anything that looks left wing because it relates to government meddling with markets, then they will have most of the media against them. Not to mention their political opponents and interest groups.”

    ———

    Well there is a danger, that AW is acutely sensitive to, that some would choose to try and brand the policies of their opponents as extremist whatever the reality. Thus someone on one end of the political spectrum might choose to brand what is perhaps in reality a centrist policy as being on the other end of the spectrum.

    But we can cut through this by working out our own reasonable spectrum instead of using someone else’s loaded spectrum. Thus, if a completely private, unregulated market is at one end, and the opposite, complete state control and provision is at the other, then a private sector market but with some state provision and control of rents might be considered somewhere closer to the middle.

    Which also neatly bypasses the left/right thing to some extent. Regarding the polling, we looked at that a few days ago… there is quite some support for state having powers to regulate rents…

  36. The Survation poll of London local election prospects looks a bit dodgy to say the least. Not sure who those 11% who intend voting Ukip will end up voting for as I I see that Ukip are putting up 473 candidates for around 1850 seats in London. That’s only a quarter.

    In contrast the Greens are contesting 833, or 45%. Moreover, the Survation poll lists the others as ‘Respect, BNP’ etc. But there are no Respect candidates at all in London this time. Contrast this with the 196 TUSC candidates.

    Was this poll taken before the candidates were known? Expect a few changes by the time the votes are counted.

  37. Carfrew,

    Ah Andrew Bridgen, my local MP and Majoresque “bastard” who was the first to call for Cameron’s resignation over equal marriage. While I actually agree with him I think it’s a bit rich for him to criticise when fratricide is not a winning electoral strategy either!

    I have noticed the rather remarkable lack of any visible Conservative presence here especially when my village is a marginal Tory ward. We’ve had one “In Touch” leaflet in four years and that’s it! I do wonder what their membership numbers are like in NWL.

  38. @CHRISLANE1945

    “CARFREW. Good Morning to you, and thank you for your very interesting, and, for Labour sympathisers, cheerful post.”

    ———

    Good mornin’ to you too Chris. I can’t take credit for the post though as I was just quoting bits of the Telegraph… indeed it was part of the article about the Wisdom Index thing in fact…

  39. So the burning question is. Did the two polls have overlapping samples, or are they completely separate?

  40. Thought Miliband was OK on Marr this morning and his image consultants have obviously worked hard on him over recent months. Less earnest, more relaxed and something of a makeover on the attire and hairstyle seemed in evidence too. Axelrod applying Obama lessons already, perhaps?

    We also had a fairly cosy and friendly sofa chat between Miliband and Farage at the end, with the personal animosity so evident between Farage and Cameron not on show at all between them.

    Taking Carfew’s interesting Telegraph revelations into account, killing Farage with kindness isn’t a bad strategy at all. I suspect he’s a politician who thrives on rancour, anger and confrontation. I thought Miliband handled him well.

    Besides, [Labour supporters wouldn’t] want to put him back in his box just yet, do we? [They would] need the little rascal running around doing his worst for at least another 12 months.

    Maybe more. :-)

  41. Statgeek – wholly separate

  42. @Daodao

    See, I’m not 100% convinced about the activism thing. Not having ever dabbled in activism, I do find it interesting, just how much difference it might, or might not make. I do think quite a lot depends on the hand activists are dealt by their party…

  43. @MrNameless

    “While I actually agree with him I think it’s a bit rich for him to criticise when fratricide is not a winning electoral strategy either!”

    ———-

    lol, you are potentially opening up comparisons with Miliband there!! Anyways, I must away… my partner needs to go to the cash-and-carry to get some stuff for her school next week…

  44. Thanks Anthony, I take it that also applies for the SoS v the Sun’s poll (both are dated 30th Apr – 1st May) ?

    Just wondering whether to include it as a standard YG poll, and if so, how do I separate their dates in the spreadsheet. :))

  45. Crossbat, you have put the view that by just muddling along as things are for the next 12 months with Farage dominating the agenda that it will lead to Miliband sneaking in on the blindside – that is a real danger and the who leads question will be put at the front of voters minds in the coming months.

  46. @Carfrew
    “… there is quite some support for state having powers to regulate rents…”

    The trouble with this sort of policy is that it often has unintended consequences. For instance, prospective landlords might be put off entering the market, and existing landlords may be forced to sell if the rents they receive no longer cover their mortgage. Thus supply would be reduced, leading to an increase in rents unless demand also fell.

    I’m old enough to remember the rent controls brought in as a result of the Rachman scandal in the late fifties. Though there were abuses that needed to be corrected, the result of the particular legislation was a drying-up of the rental sector and the the rise of short-term rental agreements.

  47. I should have added that the policy will also lose votes from landlords and their families because I’ve realised that my previous post was just about policy and not votes/polls. Whoops.

  48. ff

  49. “Just muddling along”

    I believe this could be a winning campaign soundbite – much more convincing than stuff like “Putting the Great Back into Britain and rewarding hardworkingfamilies who play by the rules and do the right thing.”

    I like it and am pleased that ole crossbatty has put it forward for consideration.

  50. “Sneaking in on the blindside” is a guddun as well.

    Bit of a giveaway though when I think about it.

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