Just catching up on a couple of polls over the last few days.

Friday’s two Westminster voting intention polls from YouGov and Populus were YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14% (tabs) and Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14% (tabs).

There was also a YouGov/Channel 4 Scottish poll in the week, showing very little change from the previous YouGov referendum poll in March. YES is on 37%(nc), NO is on 51%(-1) (tabs. Excluding don’t knows this works out at YES 42%, NO 58% – exactly the same as a month ago. This, incidentally, produced some superbly inept reporting from the Daily Mail, well deserving of my much sought after “Crap Media Reporting of Polls” award: Campaign against independence soars to 16 point lead. Apparently there has been a “surge” in support for the Union following “growing anger over Putin praise”. That’ll be a surge from 58% to 58% then.

There is also a new YouGov poll of European voting intentions, conducted for the Green party. Topline figures there are CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8% (tabs)

Finally there was a Survation poll of London (tabs) which had toplines for the European election in London of CON 21%, LAB 39%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 20%, GRN 7% and for the London local elections of CON 26%, LAB 42%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 11%.


156 Responses to “Round up of polling from the last few days”

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  1. @CROSSBAT11

    I would like to point out that the Palace “stayed up” two weeks ago.

    Furthermore I haven’t seen any polling on the “rent control” initiatives by Labour but I would wager these could be very popular esp among young people despite all the obvious vested interests trying to poo-poo them.

  2. @Crossbat XI

    Congrats to Villa.

    I’m not generally discussing football this week after Valencia’s last minute elimination from the Europa League. 2-0 from the first leg, we were 3-0 up in the second leg only to concede a 95th minute away goal.

    As for snooker, is it still a working class sport? It attracts people of all classes, particularly at a spectator level. Older people in particular seem engrossed by it. Even the long, drawn out, tactical frames. So I suspect that a typical World Championship TV snooker audience would have a disproportionate number of Kippers and Tories.

    16-14 to Selby.

  3. @REGINALD MAUDLING

    Letting properties is like most other things. The harder you make it the less people will do it and the more they will charge. This was not a very clever idea.

  4. Re DC pledge not to remain as PM unless he can deliver referendum pledge.

    One realistic possible outcome at the GE is that the Tories achieve largest party status but the LDs be so weak that only a minority cons Government is possible.

    Would DC then stand down if there is no majority in the HOC for a referendum in 2017?

  5. Interesting. The Sunday Herald has decided to support a Yes vote.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmvOyRnIEAApbK4.jpg:large

    Not entirely unexpected, but I am surprised that they have declared this early.

  6. @RMJ1

    Well that’s not necessarily the case. Many privately rented properties were purchased as buy-to-lets, so the landlord has to let them to pay their mortgage.

  7. Old Nat
    The last time l was in Edinburgh l spotted a plaque commemorating James VII winning a game of golf, so l suppose l should have said upper middle- class for Scotland.

  8. I think with me, it’s formulaic TV that turns me off, which to come on topic, is why I don’t watch the political programmes either.

    Take QT, it must be years since i watched that. I found i knew exactly what questions would be put, what the answers would be, and if a smidgen of originality was attempted, DD would pounce to snuff it. The audiences behaved as if to order of teh producer.

    That’s just one example and strangely, it seems to suit the TV people that it is so. I see they have decided to get rid of Paxman, which I would have done even before his much admired Howard interview (not by me). He was just a jumped up hopeful trying to be a Robin Day, (who gave me the pip anyway). It’s just trivia and no substance and hardly anyone watches it.

    I love football but MOTD turns me off with those silly grinning men at the beginning and it goes downhill from there with interminable shots of managers grimacing, instead of the bloody football.

  9. “This, incidentally, produced some superbly inept reporting from the Daily Mail, well deserving of my much sought after “Crap Media Reporting of Polls” award: Campaign against independence soars to 16 point lead. Apparently there has been a “surge” in support for the Union following “growing anger over Putin praise”. That’ll be a surge from 58% to 58% then”
    ___________

    And people wonder why so many Nationalists take to the internet to voice their anger? Now you can see why.

    Crap inept, misleading, rubbish, stupid, insane, gibberish… Welcome to the Daily Mail.

  10. Allan Christie

    At least we now have the Sunday Herald to give us “crap inept, misleading, rubbish, stupid, insane, gibberish” from a position of truth, honesty, and my side! :-)

  11. And on Salmonds remarks on Putin. He did disapprove with Putins actions in Ukraine but while we have a anti Russian agenda in the West then I’m not at all surprised the spin docs got on the bandwagon.

    Personally I think Putin is showing great restraint by not removing the unelected mess in Kiev. America and the West are not the only powers who can do regime change.

  12. Telegraph headline:

    “Labour lead cut to one point as Telegraph opinion poll exposes UK’s North-South divide”

    but…

    Just the ICM wisdom index of what people think is going to happen. And people seem to think the LD’s will be on15%.

  13. ac

    “Personally I think Putin is showing great restraint by not removing the unelected mess in Kiev. ”

    Yeah, it would be great if he does – and even better if he can lead them towards Russia’s very own, special brand of democracy.

  14. OLDNAT

    Allan Christie

    At least we now have the Sunday Herald to give us “crap inept, misleading, rubbish, stupid, insane, gibberish” from a position of truth, honesty, and my side! :-)
    ___________

    Oh the Sunday Herald are the crème de la crème of truth. ;-)

  15. R&D

    Putin aint a saint but unfortunately the further West you travel from Moscow doesn’t mean democracy flourishes any better.

  16. @RAF

    Unfortunately for the tenants, their rent is likely to rise because the landlord can’t take the risk that interest rates won’t rise over 3 years. Some “casual” landlords will not let their houses in case they need them within the 3 years and buy to renovate to rent will be less attractive so some houses will never get brought back into use. Of course this is not full blown rent control but there may still be some return to black market rentals to avoid the regulations and policing them will be a nightmare. The young will find things even more difficult if the trial period is effectively 3 years.

  17. @AC

    Salmond and Putin is one of those things that the press love to go on and on about but it won’t sway a single vote. Although why AS gave an interview with Alistair Campbell? What sort of headlines did he expect?

  18. YouGov Euros – I think I heard Sky News say UKIP 29 LAB 26 CON 23 LIB 10

  19. “Putin aint a saint but unfortunately the further West you travel from Moscow doesn’t mean democracy flourishes any better.”

    I think if you tried living in Russia and writing and acting as freely as we are able to do in the UK you may not be quite so naïve.

    ,,, and it is not “restraint” that holds him back from invasion – its fear of financial consequences.

  20. Could be that Conservatives European numbers are very close to Labour numbers after all. Where would that leave us?

  21. latest next GE odds with William Hill.

    6/5 No overall majority

    8/5 Labour majority

    3/1 Cons majority

    Edward Miliband 8/13 to be next Prime Minister

    next lowest odds for PM 12/1 for Boris Johnson

  22. Sorry Regis but these must be wrong. If the Conservatives have an overall majority Cameron would certainly be prime minister which seems to be about 3/1 at worst.

  23. Reginald! Damned auto correct.

  24. @RMJ1

    Britain’s record on housing is not one that other countries are falling over themselves to copy.

  25. Regis has certain cachet to it though,don’t you think ?

  26. @Reginald Maudling – it’s all very well for you to talk about how people might like Labour’s rental market reforms – but the problems are all your fault! It was your 1963 budget (‘growth without inflation – duh!) that removed tax from private domestic properties, and started the whole 50 year reliance on property booms.

  27. YouGov – LAB 36 CON 33 UKIP 15 LIB 10
    YouGov Euros – UKIP 29 LAB 26 CON 23 LIB 10

    From Sky News

  28. I see your logic but its for the next PM meaning the one after David Cameron, not the PM after the next GE

    do DC is not listed

    by the way I didn’t set the odds and William Hill just want to make some money – can’t think that’ friends of Ed’ are heavily backing him as next PM just to get his odds down

  29. @ Alec

    that made me laugh

  30. Times are saying #Ukip 29%, #Labour 28%, #Tories 22%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 7%… So different YouGov polls for two NewsCorp papers?

  31. Seems unlikely.

  32. If correct that’s the first poll showing the Lib Dems in fifth place – I think it’s 50/50 whether they’ll be beaten by the Greens.

  33. Where are the Times saying that?

  34. @number cruncher

    It might be the same poll but different LTV It is confusing

  35. I wondered that Couper, but I’d expect a 10/10 LTV filter to give a much clearer UKIP benefit than that.

  36. @ COUPER2802: You could well be right, but if one is 10/10 certain and one isn’t then I’d be surprised to see UKIP on the same level in both…

  37. @RMJ1 – not sure you should be quite so certain of the negatives of Labour’s rent policy – after all, we don’t know exactly what the policy will be, so how you be certain what it will do is something of a mystery.

    As I understand it, Ed M proposed a formula to allow rents to rise over the 3 year period. This could be linked to interest rates, or inflation, or a combination of both. My initial thoughts are that this is fair, if proper;y planned. Landlords should be able to raise prices to match costs, but what we currently see is evictions to raise rents with no interest rate rise.

    It is possible to argue that markets should be allowed to find the price of goods alone, without intervention, but of all the goods on sale, homes to live are a distinctly special case, where some protections for tenants are required.

    This policy may well lead to some people leaving the buy to let market, but that in itself might be no bad thing. If it helps to avoid excess house price rises, that would be a bonus.

  38. Here is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/seanmatthewryan/status/462707722686062592

    The other numbers are from P14 of tomorrow’s Sun, which was shown on Sky Press Preview (I assume they’ll show it again in the 11:30 run)

  39. @Reg Maudling – by the way – how are your nipples?

  40. Landlords will be free to set whatever rent they want but any rises within the three-year tenancy period will be regulated.

  41. @Number Cruncher

    Yeah, I heard something about the Greens jumping to 4th too. And also that Cameron has will debate Farage at some point (post-Euros).

    It was always looking a bit dodgy for the Lib Dems but I wasn’t really expecting them to drop a place.

  42. More on that Telegraph reporting of the wisdom index poll showing a 1% Labour lead. They say – “It is the narrowest lead ever recorded for Ed Miliband in ICM’s Wisdom Index survey since he became Labour leader in 2010.”

    This is true, technically, but the wisdom index only started in June 2012, which doesn’t sound quite so dramatic.

  43. The wisdom index is stupid.

  44. Surely ‘the wisdom index’ isn’t wisdom of any sort, but the random guess of a bunch of people.

    Does anyone actually take it seriously?

  45. @ Stan J – Greens have been on 8% in several Euro polls, they seem to lose out on harsher LTV filters which is interesting… So it’s not that surprising that one poll has them behind, but all the usual caveats apply…

    And contrary to what the Greens are claiming, they will not get 6 MEPs on these numbers!!!

  46. When I said “behind” I meant Lib Dems behind Greens

  47. Nick Clegg quoted the Wisdom Index AS A PROPER POLL when it reported the LDs at 18% , when the other polls had them on 8-10%.
    So the W. I. does have a use, it enables politicians to be mendacious.

  48. NC, the six MEPs claim came from Natalie Bennett herself (in response to a question by me!), so if they fall massively short will there be calls for her head?

  49. EL, the Lib Dems have a habit of doing that – I saw a claim that Labour vote in Hallam had dropped on the basis of one by-election. Still, when straws need to be clutched…

  50. I read that Telegraph headline too and wondered how 1% lead is interpreted as “neck and neck”. 1% of the electorate who actually turn out is something like 300,000 votes. Put in the right places, that’s enough for a pretty hefty majority.

    Then I read that it’s the wisdom index: someone needs to tell the Telegraph political correspondent that this poll isn’t the same as asking where people will put their own cross: it’s more like asking what they think everyone else will put theirs. It’s like saying one horse is slightly ahead of another in an upcoming race because lots of people think the first horse is a good bet.

    Daily Mail has some competition here for dodgy poll reporting. But anything for a story I suppose.

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