Just catching up on a couple of polls over the last few days.

Friday’s two Westminster voting intention polls from YouGov and Populus were YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14% (tabs) and Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14% (tabs).

There was also a YouGov/Channel 4 Scottish poll in the week, showing very little change from the previous YouGov referendum poll in March. YES is on 37%(nc), NO is on 51%(-1) (tabs. Excluding don’t knows this works out at YES 42%, NO 58% – exactly the same as a month ago. This, incidentally, produced some superbly inept reporting from the Daily Mail, well deserving of my much sought after “Crap Media Reporting of Polls” award: Campaign against independence soars to 16 point lead. Apparently there has been a “surge” in support for the Union following “growing anger over Putin praise”. That’ll be a surge from 58% to 58% then.

There is also a new YouGov poll of European voting intentions, conducted for the Green party. Topline figures there are CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8% (tabs)

Finally there was a Survation poll of London (tabs) which had toplines for the European election in London of CON 21%, LAB 39%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 20%, GRN 7% and for the London local elections of CON 26%, LAB 42%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 11%.


156 Responses to “Round up of polling from the last few days”

1 2 3 4
  1. A surge due to an alleged purge, that turns out to be a dirge?

  2. @ AW

    I saw the Green Party poll mentioned in the thread yesterday. I’m a bit puzzled why the Greens bothered to do one given the cost.

    Subject to confidentiality agreements of course do you know why when there are quite a lot of Euro polls at the moment? Also was any wording different to the standard YouGov Euro polls- maybe with the hope they would get a better result?

  3. @Shevii – I imagine they were hoping that highlighting the fact the Euros are done by PR so minor parties can actually get seats would favour them in the pool – in fact it seems to have made no difference. Perhaps many people understand that by now.

    Personally I’m surprised we haven’t seen a ‘vote Green to give clegg a bloody nose’ movement yet.

  4. Should be in the *poll. Though I’m sure many of them are very good swimmers.

  5. It’s one of the ironies of the independence campaign, that the news sources (and some of the readers) that are more right-wing tend to be anti-indy. It would serve their interests to be pro-indy, and have the more left-wing Scotland separated from the rUK. I suppose they haven’t done their homework on that.

    I suppose we’ll start to see some really big shifts on indy VI once the EU elections are past and people see what the EU results are, both nationally and regionally.

    @Shevii

    I suppose the ‘surge’ in EU polls might be because there’s an EU election this month. (dry wit mode activated)

  6. Shevii – exactly the same wording as usual, and I’ve no idea!

  7. “well deserving of my much sought after “Crap Media Reporting of Polls” award”

    You could just call it the CRAP award…

    Crap
    Reporting
    About
    Polls

    …it’s recursive and everything…

  8. p.s. is anyone else getting the “Vote Conservative” banner? I mean, I’ve been browsing Gizmodo, but I didn’t think that was a hotbed of Conservativism…

  9. I’ve had it solidly for the past two days.

    Not a particularly unexpected message from them.

  10. It’s ok, it’s changed to the “secret pub scandal” thing now…

  11. @ Carfrew
    Yes.

    @Neil A
    Ditto

    That said, the only postal campaign material I have received has been the Euro leaflet from UKIP.

  12. Add a BNP leaflet to my collection!

  13. I don’t think the ” Vote Conservative to get a Referendum” argument is going to wash with genuine anti-EU UKIP voters – they’re not interested in just having a Referendum for its own sake, they want out of the EU and the Referendum that might be held under a Cameron 2nd term in 2017 is the most likely to produce a Yes vote in favour of continued membership of the EU.

    In those circs UKIP’s raison d’etre will disappear and the EU will have been overwhelmingly endorsed by the British people for the next 20 years!

  14. statgeek,
    you are right that it would suit the right in England to have indy.
    it is just that people are devious. to make it too obvious would be counter productive. so they pretend to be pro unity whereas they secretly want the opposite. how high up in the conservative party that goes is anyone’s guess.
    I tell fellow solicitors working with me to remember that it is more difficult to say no or be hard when negotiating if the other party is being friendly and on the face of it reasonable. it is getting what you want that matters.
    max Clifford could have done with some rather different coaching on that subject if indeed he was prepared to be coached at all.
    so just think of the effect certain conservative politicians campaigning in Scotland for the ‘no’ vote may be having on a country which really doesn’t like them.

  15. @Mr Nameless

    I’ve just checked my local authority website for the list of candidates for the London council elections (Bromley). There are just 2 BNP candidates, one in each of two wards (not mine I hasten to add!)

    Most wards have a full slate of Labour, Lib Dem and Labour candidates and one Green Party candidate.

  16. Let me try again…

    Most wards have s full slate of Conservative, Lib Dem, Labour and UKIP candidates and one Green Party candidate.

  17. @David Englehart

    Interesting point, the day after the Daily Mail headlines with the No vote soaring, Cameron announces he is going to spend the next 4 months campaigning for No – you could be onto something

  18. @Paul A,

    Yes, because of course the most important question in the electorate’s minds when they come to vote in the referendum will be “Who’s the Prime Minister?”

    I actually agree that the Tory referendum pledge won’t hold much sway over UKIP defectors, but that’s nothing to do with “not wanting to have a referendum under David Cameron”. It’s a) because they don’t trust him to actually hold one – because of the Cast Iron Pledge issue and b) because for most of them it’s not really about Europe at all. It’s about social conservatism and a broad distrust of foreigners.

  19. @ Couper & David Englehart

    Except that since 1945 a Labour govt has only needed Scottish Lab MPs for control of the HoC for less than a few months.

    Its oversold this idea that without Scotland the right will have a mortgage on political control of England.

  20. Anthony

    Are we getting any Euro polls tonight?

  21. It’s about social conservatism and a broad distrust of foreigners.
    ———–
    I’m picking up the vibe that it’s about a broad distrust of politicians who seem to ‘prefer’ foreigners to their own electorate. It’s the perceived ‘preference’ (i.e. perceived unfairness) which causes the problems, I think.

  22. @ Paul & Neil A (brothers?)

    “@Paul A,
    Yes, because of course the most important question in the electorate’s minds when they come to vote in the referendum will be “Who’s the Prime Minister?”
    I actually agree that the Tory referendum pledge won’t hold much sway over UKIP defectors, but that’s nothing to do with “not wanting to have a referendum under David Cameron”. It’s a) because they don’t trust him to actually hold one – because of the Cast Iron Pledge issue and b) because for most of them it’s not really about Europe at all. It’s about social conservatism and a broad distrust of foreigners.”

    Forgive me if I have misunderstood but wont it be that if Cameron is PM during an EU referendum then he will probably (although not definitely) campaign for IN and that surely has to increase the likelihood for us to stay IN.

    Genuine “lets get out of the EU tomorrow” folk might feel that those are the worst circumstances to have an IN/OUT referendum.

    In fact it might serve UKIP better as a party if such a referendum never takes place until the pressure to get OUT is overwhelming.

  23. Oh I think we might :)

  24. GRHINPORTS

    @”Genuine “lets get out of the EU tomorrow” folk might feel that those are the worst circumstances to have an IN/OUT referendum.”

    My feeling too.
    The committed UKIP Europhobe doesn’t want a Referendum , (particularly a referendum under DC) because the answer might be “Stay in”.

    For me these people are the other side of the coin featuring the committed LibDem Europhile.

    Neither of them want the public to be able to choose/decide.

  25. Carfrew and others
    The Tory ad promising an ‘In-Out’ referendum brings to mind the slang from Anthony Burgess’ novel ‘A Clockwork Orange’ , where ” the old in-out” , referred to sexual intercourse. Such a referendum could quite possibly F*ck the Tory party of course !

  26. I guess the value of the Con message on the EU referendum is slightly devalued by the fact that we’ve already had a cast iron pledge on an EU referendum. It was the public failure of that particular broken pledge that really put the skids under Tory VI, which had held up really rather well up until that point.

    Certainly, if I were a UKIP doorstepper (or Lab, for that matter) I would simply point potential waverers to ‘Cast Iron Dave’s’ record on this, which really is quite hard to duck.

    Credibility is a big asset for any politician, as it makes even unpalatable messages stick with voters. Cameron has always struggled on this point, partly I suspect as he changed tack (possibly in response to events, for sure) pre 2010, but also in government (greenest government ever, no plans to raise VAT etc).

    Some policy switching is inevitable, as circumstances change, but there is a fine line between telling voters what you stand for and then adapting to circumstance, and making concrete pledges you can’t keep. I suspect Cameron has done a bit too much of the latter, firstly trying to demonstrate he is a moderate centrist, now trying to placate the right wing elements. Without extreme care, this might just end up with no one believing him.

  27. @Ewan

    So…UKIP say elect us to the European Parliament to support our campaign for withdrawal from the European Union and all its institutions…including the European Parliament. And the Tories say elect us to the EP to support our campaign for giving you a vote to leave the EU and all its institutions…including the EP.

    Glad that’s clear.

  28. In fairness there isn’t necessarily anything inconsistent about getting elected to the body you wish to leave. Ask the SNP, or Sinn Fein. Or the Irish Parliamentary Party in the 19th Century.

    What is a bit silly is campaigning on it, given that it’s not in the gift of the EP. The GE is the appropriate forum to campaign for leaving the EU. But then none of the parties adhere to that logic, so why should UKIP?

  29. @David Englehart, couper2802

    The Independent carried an article (soon after the 2011 Holyrood election) about a discussion within cabinet… the source stated that Osborne argued the case for Scottish Independence benefiting the Tories electorally, Gove argued passionately for preserving the Union; Cameron’s summation was that they couldn’t not put up a fight

  30. So far I’ve received one UKIP, one no2eu and 7500 Labour Party leaflets.

  31. Hello All.
    In Bournemouth East, Southbourne Ward. Three UKIP leaflets, and none from the others.

  32. Just received that rare beast – a Tory Euro leaflet.

  33. @Alex

    The 2010 Tory referendum commitment was to hold one if there was a Treaty which involved a further transfer of powers from the UK to the EU and to enshrine that principle in legislation. As far as I know that commitment ha been honoured. Were there other commitments?

  34. Me, l reckon an 8 point Lab lead for You Gov ST.

  35. You’re all watching the snooker ain’t ya !

  36. @Hireton,

    The “Cast Iron Guarantee” was that if the Tories came to power before the Lisbon Treaty was ratified, they would hold a referendum on whether to ratify it.

    Of course, Prime Minister Brown snuck off to the continent to ratify it just before the election (as I suspect Cameron knew he would), There’s no point holding a referendum on a Treaty you’ve already signed. You can’t cancel the Treaty, you can only withdraw from the EU.

    Of course the “Cast Iron Pledge” thing has been misrepresented ever since. There’s some justice in this as Cameron was trying to generate a sense of hardline euroscepticism from something that was extremely unlikely to happen. But anyone with a brain and a non-partisan stance knows that the current commitment to an In-Out referendum is unrelated to the Lisbon Treaty pledge, and that a Tory majority government would definitely hold one.

  37. “@ Ewen Lightfoot

    You’re all watching the snooker ain’t ya !”

    Not seen much of it. Ronnie O’Sullivan will probably win again, if he keeps his concentration.

    Why do Tories hate snooker ?

  38. Neil A

    Yes of course Con would hold a referendum, because they know it would be won, just as Harold Wilson knew that in 1975.

    In fact the polls demonstrate it is won already.

    It’s why Cameron was relaxed about the AV one. He knew that was won (by him) too.

  39. EL

    Not watching TV snooker, didn’t even know it was on, that’s how TV has become to me in these days of the internet.

    As OPs have pointed out, the days of paper newspapers and TV repetitious programming are over.

  40. Howard

    I’m sure that Cameron felt “the polls demonstrate it is won already” when he agreed to a referendum in Scotland.

    Or, as the charming Ian Davidson MP put it “the debate will go on in the sense there is a large number of wounded still to be bayoneted”,

    While the polls still indicate a No win is most likely, it’s been interesting seeing a Tory millionaire creating a “grassroots” campaign (as the BBC told us – hour after hour after hour) with a lot of grass, and little root. Vote,NobOrders suggests a wee bit of uncertainty now. :-)

  41. @Howard,

    I expect the referendum would be a relatively easy “in”, but I don’t think it’s totally guaranteed. The Scots referendum is showing us that foregone conclusions can become un-foregone fairly swiftly.

    But there are many, many voices out there claiming to speak for “the people” on Europe. And there is a legitimate complaint that the entire nature the UK’s membership of the EEC/EC/EU has changed beyond recognition without a direct consultation with the British people.

    Obviously there are profound, partisan benefits for the Tory party in “settling” (I accept that there will always be ‘ultras’ who don’t accept any vote on any subject they don’t like) the EU question. But I don’t think that means that the idea is without non-partisan merit, too.

    The one potential benefit for Cameron of a sweeping UKIP victory in the Euros may be a perception across the country that the European question isn’t going to go away and that it may be time to resolve it. Plus of course, other European leaders may be shocked into recognising that they have to cooperate to some degree with his requests for concessions.

  42. @NEIL A

    I was just typing the same thing about the “pledge” when the browser refreshed for no reason. It seems even inanimate objects have swallowed the broken promises bit whole. I am also pretty sure that the public would vote to stay in if given the chance but without a Conservative majority they won’t be. Ironically it was Nick Clegg who said there should be an in/out referendum but that was in the context that he would never have to deliver it. Funny how things turn out.

    I don’t think a referendum would suit UKIP at all. All the Mr Angrys would have to admit they were wrong if it went against them although a number would probably say the result was a fix.

  43. @Ewen Lightfoot

    “You’re all watching the snooker ain’t ya !”

    Not enough time between watching, over and over again, a recording of Villa’s three goals against Hull earlier this afternoon.

    “Staying up, staying up, staying up……………………..stayyyyyyyyyyyying up……………”

    I can concentrate on Worcestershire’s march to the Division 2 County Cricket Championship title now. Another giant step towards achieving this goal will be taken at Cardiff over the next four days where, Welsh weather permitting, we will completely dismantle a poor Glamorgan side.

  44. RHuckle
    Do Tories hate snooker? It is a very working class sport in my opinion, in the same way that golf is middle class l suppose.
    Howard
    I suspect you may be a little cutting edge as far as how you access entertainment, although snooker is wierdly nostalgic for something which only became a national mass media experience in the 1970s.

  45. OldNat
    Oh, I forgot Scotland. Same thing there, except that Cameron could not refuse one without stirring up resentment from which he did not need to suffer. As it happens, as with AV, the Labour Party and Lib Dems are doing his job for him. It’ll be their fault if a ‘yes’ results.

    Neil A
    My points were simply about political expediency, as you recognised Clegg’s manoeuvres were, not about efficacy of holding referendums on EU, (or anything else).

  46. The Conservative club is the only place you can find a snooker table these days. In the North anyway.

  47. “Why do Tories hate snooker ?”

    The reds outnumber the blues by ten to one.

  48. Old Nat
    ‘Bayonetting the wounded’ ?

    “Remember Culloden ! ” That’s what l say.

  49. Invented by Neville Chamberlain, of course. (Sadly not that one.)

  50. Ewen Lightfoot

    “golf is middle class l suppose”

    Like Howard, you forgot Scotland. :-)

1 2 3 4