The Sun politics team have tweeted tonight’s YouGov poll – the topline figures show the same five point Labour lead as yesterday: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%.

There’s more interesting electoral news though, Patrick Mercer has resigned in Newark triggered a by-election in what would normally be a safe Tory seat. The timing could hardly be worse for the Conservatives – it is too late for the by-election to be held on the same day as the European elections, so the by-election will presumably come fairly soon afterwards, at a time when UKIP will almost certainly be enjoying a big publicity boost from having done well in the European elections…


131 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 14”

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  1. Socal
    Love your ‘Letter from America’ as always.

    There have been boundary changes since Lab took Newark in ’97 , but it should be a fascinating three-way fight and a lot will depend on the calibre of the UKIP candidate. If there is the slightest whiff of a racist past the media will pounce.

    I think Labour will squeak in, but then I would say that wouldn’t I ?

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  2. Yep, there is actually a functioning market in telecoms, which helps considerably…

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  3. Though the roaming thing was taking the mick a bit…

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  4. I think Labour promising to scrap Gove’s reforms is going to get them some more votes.

    We shall see.

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  5. The only thing that is forcing the telecoms market to “function” is government and EU intervention.

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  6. Anthony – True, I guess what I meant was that it will be interesting to see which approach comes closest to the final result. This is fascinating stuff!

    TNS have posted the tabs now: http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/uploads/files/TNSUK_EUVotingIntentions_DataTables2014Apr29.pdf

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  7. The railways do not need to be renationalised because they already were (in 2001/2, IIRC). The companies who run passenger trains are simply franchised by DfT. (a sort of freelancer service like Jeremy Paxman or Gary Lineker). The trains are mainly owned by the banks. They are mainly owned by…..

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  8. Howard, most of us in practice consider railways to actually include the trains. Because they aren’t much use without the trains. British Rail, did not call themselves “British Rail and also the trains that run on the rails”. Railways is a convenient shorthand…

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  9. Carfrew
    The franchisees are totally controlled by DfT in what they can or cannot do and own very little rolling stock (mainly leases). The services provided are hugely subsidised by we the taxpayer. The operating companies merely cream off the efforts of their enterprise, depending on how greatly they were screwed down by the DfT during the bidding process.

    I wonder if anyone who thinks we have an NHS has ever analysed how much is really privatised, starting, just as an example, with the consultants and the GPs. They are all freelancers and private businesses, and very clearly in the financial box seat where the taxpayer is concerned.

    I am not saying you fall into this category, but many voters have greatly outdated ideas on these matters, or always were under an illusion.

    Nationalisation is about ownership. The railways are nationalised, unless you want to include the steam train societies chuffing around here and there.

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  10. The poll I linked to upthread showed a third of Tory supporters preferring equality to wealth. The fact is people vote the way they do for all sorts of reasons and their opinions won’t fall neatly on to a left/right spectrum, even if they do identify with one side.

    A person might have views that appear left-wing on things like nationalisation but not necessarily see it as part of a broader ideological framework. It only tends to be people like ourselves who are very interested in politics who see things in such abstract terms.

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  11. SoCalLiberal

    Newark went for Labour once right, in 1997? It’ll be fascinating to watch that special election.

    Yes, Newark was Labour 1997-2001. There have been minor boundary changes since and Newark constituency used to be even more winnable for Labour before 1983 when it contained (now ex-) mining areas.

    However the winning candidate in 1997, Fiona Jones:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiona_Jones

    then got into problems with election expenses and it all ended rather sadly, as has Mercer’s career, so maybe it’s a seat you don’t want to win.

    Thanks for the update on the latest goings on in the various races and the NYT article on District 33 you linked to a while back (the author did enjoy writing that, didn’t he?). Actually I’d always envisaged District 33 as a thinly-disguised fictional mini-series. These people are far too media-savvy for reality TV – if they are going to be followed round by camera crews those are going to be ones they have control over.

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  12. @Howard

    Additionally, Railtrack add the “track” bit, to make clear they are talking about just the track, because conventionally, just “Rail” or “Railways” is taken to include the trains. When people say they travelled by Rail, they usually mean they used a train. As opposed to just running along the track…

    That said, I agree with you that folk may not be aware of level of subsidies, or of role of privatisation in NHS etc.

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  13. “Love your ‘Letter from America’ as always.”

    ———-

    Yes they are rather good. A nice late-night treat, a reward for working through the post-midnite Independence stuff…

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  14. @JACK
    ‘hang people who are different and so on (I may exaggerate a little here for effect).’ …

    ‘Note the normal supporter for UKIP are the elderly, less well educated people’

    You exaggerate more than a little. Elderly people in general are ‘less well educated’ as university attendance was much lower in the past. As you are so well-educated perhaps you’d be kind enough to factor that into your equations? But keep ‘em coming, nothing motivates the elderly to vote Ukip more than being called stupid just because they haven’t got a degree in something useless from a jumped up little Poly.

    There are certain seats that Farage would not be the candidate most likely to win for Ukip. He would motivate the ‘anyone but Farage’ vote in a way that say Diane James would not.

    For sheer theatre I like the Tony Martin idea and that would fit in with JACK’s crass stereotype.

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  15. @Howard

    When people say they want the railways to be renationalised I don’t think they really mean a collection of private companies sold franchises to run leased trains and carriages on rails owned by a statutory corporation created as a private company with no owners. They generally mean an integrated railway not dissimilar to British Rail.

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  16. @RogerH

    Thanks, yes that changes things a bit. The polling I recalled had only 40-something percent of Ukippers in favour, here they are at a minimum of 67%. Maybe attitudes are hardening…

    I shall have to look for another proxy for potentially Lab-leaning ukip support…

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  17. NickP,

    I agree. Indeed, that quote reminds me both of the content of the Daily Mail AND the attitude of many of its critics towards it. Like celebrity culture, it’s one of those cases where I have no strong feelings either way.

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  18. This is not a typo:

    ComRes, Euro poll:

    UKIP 38%
    Lab 27%
    Con 18%
    LD 8%

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  19. I expect UKIP will take votes from Labour for the Euros but it won’t necessarily do the same for the GE.

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  20. @DRUNKENSCOUSER

    “The poll I linked to upthread showed a third of Tory supporters preferring equality to wealth. The fact is people vote the way they do for all sorts of reasons and their opinions won’t fall neatly on to a left/right spectrum, even if they do identify with one side.”

    ————-

    True. I was surprised recently by how many Tories are in favour of mansion taxes. But some things are more of a voting deal-breaker than others, and it is interesting to try and work out which are and which aren’t.

    The polling questions on what people would have to agree with to vote for a party are an indicator.

    In the case of nationalisation, at the moment, Labour aren’t offering a renationalisation programme, so Tory commitment isn’t tested. People can be Tories and not worry about the nationalisation thing The question is… if Labour did offer such a programme, we might find out how many would still actually be Tories.

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  21. Andy JS,

    I don’t see anything notable in that poll.

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  22. Number Cruncher – my expectation had been that, as usual, the polls would generally converge and all show roughly the same thing for the European election, all within the margin of error*. Perhaps not, perhaps we will get some showing big UKIP leads and some not, perhaps we will get some winners and losers.

    (*Not, of course, that such results prevent imbeciles from getting all excited about pollsters doing well or badly and doing up little league tables when the difference between them is a percentage point or so in a single poll with margins of error of +/- 3%. Grr.)

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  23. Though there are also those EU regs affecting nationalising…

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  24. @Jack

    “Simple answer for UKIP appeal – UKIP people live in the past.”

    I hear this all the time. Perhaps for them some part of the past (the 80s, the 70s, the 60s) was a better time, and they hope that some parts of it can be reached. Pre-Blair. Pre-Thatcher. Pre-EU.

    I don’t think that ‘they live in the past’ is something that can be said in the hope that they will go away. UKIP are rising in the polls. As with the SNP in Scotland in 2011, dismissing them for ‘x’ reason doesn’t work.

    Engage their voter base with something that appeals to them, or they will stick with their chosen party.

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  25. @BILL PATRICK

    “I agree. Indeed, that quote reminds me both of the content of the Daily Mail AND the attitude of many of its critics towards it.”

    ———–

    The two minute hate thing? Yes, I feel that way about automod. Only sometimes it lasts longer than two minutes…

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  26. The 1 o’clock news on R4 seems to have been taken over by Conservative central office, the first item at least.
    “Nige is frit !” Pretty much sums it up.

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  27. @JOHN PILGRIM

    “CARFREWda ““residual salience”, or “latent” salience, you get a choice!!”

    Being latent would it not work within a latent and long term agenda rather than the current on?”

    ————

    Just because I invented the concept doesn’t mean I understand it you know…

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  28. “Just because I invented the concept doesn’t mean I understand it you know…”

    Typical of this country. Our boffins invent things then let the Yanks take them over and make all the money.

    You didn’t invent graphene did you Carfrew?

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  29. There is consistent polling evidence that a majority of voters across all parties support re-nationalisation of the railways, gas, electricity, and water.

    And a majority of voters favour rent controls.

    Something like 36% of people favour government control of food prices.

    The electorate is far to the left of even Labour on this issue.

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  30. GUYMONDE

    “Typical of this country. Our boffins invent things then let the Yanks take them over and make all the money.

    You didn’t invent graphene did you Carfrew?”

    —————

    They nicked it already??!! Bloody ‘ell. I know the government gets policy ideas from me (generally doing the opposite of whatever I advocate) but I didn’t know our American cousins were in on it…

    Nope, didn’t invent graphene. If I had, you would know all about it…

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