The second of Populus’s two twice-weekly polls is out this morning and has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck on 35% a piece. Tabs are here.

The last time we saw a poll without a Labour lead was MORI’s October poll last year. That one didn’t herald a great crossover, it was just a blip. You probably shouldn’t get excited about this one yet either – it could be a further narrowing of the polls, or could just be normal variation within the margin of error. Populus tend to show some of the smaller Labour leads anyway, probably as a result of their weighting scheme (Populus weight by party ID, in a similar way to YouGov, but weight Labour to a lower level of identification).

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs here). As ever, look at the polls as a whole, don’t make the error of looking more at the ones that give more unusual or exciting results.

On unrelated matters, nominations for the European elections closed yesterday and candidate lists were published, so I’ve updated the election guide part of the site with the full candidates: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, West Midlands, East Midlands, Wales, East of England, South West, South East and London.


269 Responses to “Populus – CON 35, LAB 35, LDEM 9, UKIP 13”

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  1. CRAIG
    “I no longer mind if the Right have their way and abolish it” [the BBC]

    I have no dog in that fight but given their membership of the right-wing CBI already, isn’t that rather counter-intuitive?

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  2. Nowt on a Patrick Mercer by-election yet, it came from Spearmint so it must be right. But not a peep.

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  3. DAODAO
    “A vote for the Greens can be very dangerous in letting extremist parties in”

    But, at least in England, what other left-wing party can one vote for with any meaningful prospect of their being elected?

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  4. @Colin
    What are your %s %s of?
    I assume the last is low because small parties include UKIP and are high?
    Have you taken turnover into account?

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  5. MRNAMELESS

    Arguably so for the E&W Greens but, unlike the “Scottish” branches of the Con, Lab & LD parties, the Scottish Greens are a party in their own right and have MSPs.

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  6. DAVE

    @”I assume the last is low because small parties include UKIP and are high?”

    Precisely !

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  7. @Craig, Bfield

    Whilst I have plenty of disagreements with the state of the Beeb at present, I still think it is rather a wondrous thing, fantastic value, and to be chided for its faults but defended for its unique value to the polity.
    Setting aside the cultural contributions and the multifarious wonders of R4 etc, from a political point of view it at least has a DUTY to be unbiased: even if we think it fails in discharging it, we can at least challenge it.
    This is true of no other communication medium, and should be stoutly defended.

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  8. GUYMONDE
    “from a political point of view it at least has a DUTY to be unbiased: even if we think it fails in discharging it, we can at least challenge it”

    It does have that duty, but how is it possible to challenge it given that it has no independent regulator? Complaints are very rarely upheld by the BBC Trust and when they are there is virtually never an on-air public apology. For an enterprise funded by a tax that is shocking.

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  9. I think the significance of the BBC being a member of the CBI can be exaggerated. While I don’t think it should be a member I rather doubt that it’s been a consideration for its journalists when compiling their reports. And the BBC’s far more than its news coverage anyway.

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  10. @DAODAO: “A vote for the Greens can be very dangerous in letting extremist parties in”

    If 8% of people are stupid enough to vote for the BNP shouldn’t they be represented?

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  11. @RogerH
    I agree it shouldn’t be a member and I also agree it’s exaggerated. My Credit Union is a member of the local Chamber of Commerce but it doesn’t mean we align to C of C policies or lobbying – just that we want to engage with the local business community.

    @Barbazenzero
    I agree: its governance and management s in need of reform but let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

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  12. @daodao

    I’m afraid your advice about not voting Green is a recipe to guarantee the status quo in yet another set of elections.

    There is a substantial minority – a growing one – that the status quo needs to radically overturned to get rid of our democratic constipation.

    I am firmly of that view.

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  13. Personally I don’t think the BBC should be a member of the CBI, but perhaps for slightly different reasons to others.

    To me, the BBC has gone far beyond it’s remit by launching itself into the marketplace as a commercial enterprise and competing directly with other companies. Because of that “commercial side” of the BBC it makes sense for it to be a member of the CBI, because it’s part of British industry.

    My view is that for a tax-payer funded organisation to compete directly with unsubsidised media companies is patently unfair and should stop. Then it would cease to be part of British industry and would no longer feel the need to be a member of the CBI.

    For me, the BBC should be a commissioning body which runs TV and radio channels dedicated to providing content that private companies wouldn’t provide, and should commission that content from competing private companies on a level playing field.

    That is already happening to a large extent, but I think it should go further. There is no justification for the BBC taking part in reality TV programming, game shows etc or even in most drama or comedy programming. The market can and does provide that perfectly well.

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  14. @Colin then your other %s are of those voting, and do not include the overall decline in support for the main parties indicated by falling turnout over the period quoted.

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  15. @Neil A: “My view is that for a tax-payer funded organisation to compete directly with unsubsidised media companies is patently unfair and should stop.”

    If a taxpayer-funded organisation can give the taxpayer a better product than a private organisation then why not? Would you make the same argument for the NHS and private healthcare companies?

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  16. @BARBAZENZERO

    ‘DAODAO
    “A vote for the Greens can be very dangerous in letting extremist parties in”
    But, at least in England, what other left-wing party can one vote for with any meaningful prospect of their being elected?’

    There are (forgive the tortuous pun) ‘green shoots’ of green recovery to be seen. In a way it is surprising it is not greater, considering they are the largest party to which the term ‘socialist’ could reasonably be applied. And of course there’s the environmentalism which the other parties have turned their back on.

    @OLD NAT BBC EU funding is well documented.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/culturehousedaily/2014/02/the-millions-in-eu-funding-the-bbc-tried-to-hide/

    There are numerous detailed articles in respectable journals, though strangely little on the BBC who prefer to keep it secret.

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  17. DAVE

    Correct.

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  18. MR BEESWAX
    “There are (forgive the tortuous pun) ‘green shoots’ of green recovery to be seen. In a way it is surprising it is not greater, considering they are the largest party to which the term ‘socialist’ could reasonably be applied. And of course there’s the environmentalism which the other parties have turned their back on.”

    We’re certainly on the same wavelength there.

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  19. NEIL A

    I agree with virtually all you say re the BBC, but why not go the whole hog and let it fund itself via advertising?

    Then the charter could be annulled and the BBC Trust replace by an OfCom with enhanced powers to punish any broadcaster within their geographical remit, particularly in respect of political bias.

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