This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun also had their latest European election voting intention figures. The topline figures continue to show Labour and UKIP battling it out for first place, with the Conservatives off in third – CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 27%, GREEN 6%.

By my reckoning on a uniform swing this would translate into 15 seats for the Conservatives (down 11), 25 seats for Labour (up 12), 5 seats for the Lib Dems (down 6), 21 seats for UKIP (up 8), 1 seat for the Greens (down one) – the BNP look almost certain to lose their two seats. Full tabs are here.


148 Responses to “YouGov European polling”

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  1. Ewen Lightfoot

    Of course, you could have read my second sentence.

    But then as I said to MrNameless “So many good stories are spoiled by little things like facts!”

  2. ” 5 seats for the Lib Dems (down 6)”
    _____

    That’s grim real grim.

  3. “All is for the Yes in the best of all possible worlds.”

  4. Chris Green

    Presumably that will be true in the referendum to leave the EU – whether that requires a yes or a No answer.

    Equally “All will be for the No in the best of all possible worlds.” however the question is phrased.

  5. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up two to five points: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%

  6. Most notable thing in this poll is of course the UKIP score, their highest with YG this year.

  7. UKIP are flying…

  8. Chris Green
    Exactly !
    The Yes campaign does not thrive on circumspection, it is a crusade or it is nothing …

  9. CB11,

    “The People’s Army might have some legs, you know. ”

    Seems very reminiscent of The March on Rome, don’t you think?

  10. Ewen Lightfoot

    “Crusade”?

    I think the UK might be more appropriately linked with that term! :-)

  11. This thread seems to have become full of military references.

    i do hope that’s nothing to do with it being St George’s Day.

  12. Wood,

    You’ve done it now. Arguing over whether fascism/the BNP are far-left or far-right goes with the BBC, football and PMQs in the list of Things We Mustn’t Go On About.

    [yes, it does – AW]

  13. Although my post to Wood touched on some sensitive issues, I don’t believe it was partisan and my moderation was based on a particular phrase I used that got caught in the filter. Please release me, AW!

  14. Wood
    My original comment was genuinely sparked because l had forgotten that the BNP had won seats. Which shows progress of a sort l suppose, don’t write me off as a right-on liberal either, l have posted on several occasions that if Farage could pitch his appeal to that large section of the electorate who identify with the Commonwealth, then he would sweep the country.

  15. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up two to five points: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%

  16. “UKIP broadcast will resonate with so many, shows the work we have to do to steer people away from Nige…”

    —————-

    Are you going to reverse immigration then?…

  17. Much as this is against convention, I do rather think UKIP and Farage deserve some praise for effectively burying the more unpleasant right wing elements that were making inroads politically at one point.

    Farage has been admirably consistent in his views on racism. There have been some issues with UKIP members, as there have been with other parties, but in UKIP we have a party of the right that speaks very clearly on Europe and immigration without delving deeper into ethnic territory.

    The other side of this is that many people, including a good few on here, should really start thinking about why we have UKIP, and the BNP before them. They are taking votes in many areas – as the BNP did in Labour areas previously, and their growing success tells us that the big three parties* have in some way failed.

    [* @Oldnat – this is a consciously English reference.]

  18. Alec

    There’s absolutely nothing wrong with English references – when applied to England.

    However, are you including Cornwall?

    http://kernowcelticleague.weebly.com/1/post/2014/04/the-article-in-full-cornish-recognition.html

    (Cue metropolitan references to clotted cream and Devonian dialect).

  19. Alec
    Bang on! In a way it’s helpful to the political debate that there is mass immigration from the EU, because it means that immigration can be debated without participants automatically being labelled as ‘racist’, though of course some still try.

  20. “YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up two to five points: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%”

    ———-

    These press peeps have got quite a lot to do in 12 months… big up LDs, diminish Ukip, Big up Tories, diminish Labour…

    and what if… diminishing Ukip means the previously Labour-leaning return to Labour, but Tory-leaning Ukippers remain with Ukip… (since the Labour-leaning are possibly the softer vote?) which would be a bit ironic…

  21. I’m still confused about why people object to free movement of labour but still profess to be either liberal or pro-free market.

    It appears that a free and open market means different things to different people.

    Do I think UKIP are genteel racists? yes.

  22. [* @Oldnat – this is a consciously English reference.]

    Ooooootwuth Scotland that is to say.

    Ole Nat reminds me of Jose Mourinho.

  23. @Pete B – I was also going to add that I have long felt the response to UKIP by the mainstream (and many on here) is weak.

    ‘Normal’ people so often revert to the loons and fruitcakes attacks, and try to pretend that they are the clever, sensible ones and Kippers are mad, rabid fools who hate curry and black people.

    The instant denigration of what is a consistent and logical stance is lazy and self defeating. If you choose not to listen to what other people are saying, but instead construct your own mental box to place them in to be ignored and ridiculed, don’t be too surprised if you find them coming back at you and getting stronger.

  24. @ Billybob

    Your list of European parties that the BNP associates with is interesting. Fortunately, none of them are in government, with 1 notable exception. I find it incredible that the USA and EU give such support and encouragement to this particular neofascist government, manifest most recently by the visit of the US vice-president to meet with its leaders.

  25. Alec,
    Again, I agree entirely. Remember Gordon Brown’s ‘bigoted woman’? That really resonated with many people – the self-proclaimed political elite ignoring the legitimate concerns of ordinary folk. I remember that he had to go crawling back after a media storm. Whatever that particular lady ended up voting, that is the type of person moving to UKIP.

    I think there may be quite a few shocks in the council elections as well as the EU elections coming up, which is quite ironic as councils have no influence over the main UKIP policies of leaving the EU and controlling immigration.

  26. @Alec – ” …as the BNP did in Labour areas previously”

    Wouldn’t it be be more accurate to substitute “areas described as working-class”.. or perhaps “tough working-class” as Anthony describes some towns in his constituency guide?

    You could argue that Labour ought to have a monoploy on working-class loyalties… but that has never been the case.

  27. @NickP – I think your point is really a very good one. Businesses want a free hand to move whatever resources they want and need to the most profitable locations. This is the free market.

    Some might reply that perhaps we need to start seeing ‘labour’ as people and communities. May be we need to pay more attention to people as people, rather than as economic units to be placed in the same bracket as raw materials or finance?

    Perhaps there are community values that extend beyond simple economic theory, and that the movement of people in economic migration flows, just as financial flows or building programs, needs to have an element of democratic control beyond the cold hand of market forces.

    It’s a difficult balance, but you then go on to spoil your point, in my view, by retreating once again to the lazy and self defeating stance of throwing accusations of racism, genteel or otherwise.

    There are huge questions over population, migration, economic integration, pooling of sovereignty – UKIP are asking those questions. We might not like their answers, but the mainstream parties ignored ordinary people and didn’t even ask the questions, let alone offer answers. You should address the issues more competently, in my view, rather than retreat to a tired default position.

  28. @NickP/Alec

    I’d describe UKIP as xenophobic as opposed to racist.

    There is a difference, albeit a subtle one, but to think that their objections to immigration derive from purely economic and social considerations is a little naive, to say the least.

    Understanding their appeal shouldn’t slide into apologising for their stupidities.

  29. So many Chelsea people just been charged by the FA I’m surprised our Ken hasn’t been mentioned.

  30. @Alec

    I don’t doubt the arguability of UKIP’s stances, but I am reserving judgement on them, because the party seems to be evolving very quickly, and may well end up looking very different to how it began and how it looks now. Farage is riding a tiger.

    But, as I’ve said before, UKIP is a party with a genuine constituency, which is what makes it dangerous to the current 2-and-half party system, which has been the dominant political structure in the UK since the 80s. That’s what makes Scottish nationalism a danger too. The lack of a constituency is what keeps TUSC and othr far left groups from posing a threat ( and dare I say the Greens too). I think you are correct to say that Farage has swiped the constituency that Grriffin was clever enough to spot, but not clever enough to win.

  31. Agree entirely Alec. The fundamentals of the EU are pretty right wing – free trade, free movement of labour benefiting big business (driving down pay and conditions), privatisations etc.

    UKIP gains support for many disparate reasons, and many political followers and politicians are struggling to understand it. Racism and xenophobia are in all likelihood a reason to support for a minority. I think class is a far bigger driver of support, and the working classes suffering the most, by far, from mass immigration and feeling completely detached from politics and the main parties.

    INteresting to note that when Farage is in the spotlight support goes up – 15% tonight on Yougov. Miliband also does well when in the spotlight surprisingly given his stilted persona and the general view of him in the press as unlikable. Always gets a boost after big speeches and conferences. Cameron is pretty neutral it seems to the public. Clegg is loathed it seems.

  32. To add to my last post – of course UKIP are right wing economically themselves and would likely adopt many right wing economic policies.

    They are a strange beast – a bit like Lib Dems were before 2010 – trying to appear to many different positions. Portraying the old one nation tory image eg criticizing rail and energy privatisation which has strong resonance to both left and right voters.

    Plus they do simple things right like having someone talk ‘normally’. Having everyone on message is such a turn off. There’s so many drones in all parties – just let them free to have opinions and it will help the parties.

  33. Ex-Ukip MEP Mike Nattrass is saying that his An Independence from Europe/UK Independence Now party will field candidates throughout England in the EU elections… thus putting his splinter party at or near the top of the ballot paper, with Ukip at or near the bottom.

    The Electoral Commission are indicating at this stage that the new name is not “confusing or offensive”, so Ukip may have to go to the courts over this.

    BBC point out that the “Literal Democrats” captured 10,000 votes in Devon and East Plymouth (2004 EU election).

  34. Nattrass is no Richard Huggett and the name is dissimilar enough not to cause confusion.

    Really though, who doesn’t either go into the polling booth having already decided or read the whole thing through? I know there are very depressing studies showing parties at the top of ballots do slightly better, but I can’t envisage just walking in and crossing the first box I see.

    Might help Ed to change the name to “A Labour Party”.

  35. Billy Bob

    “You could argue that Labour ought to have a monoploy on working-class loyalties… but that has never been the case.”

    Well, Labour may not have a monopoly on working class votes, but they do seem to have had a monoploy inasmuch they have assumed working class voters should be loyal to Labour without needing any other reason save that they are working class.

  36. Postageincluded

    I’m not clear whether you see developments which threaten the “current 2-and-half party system” in England as a good thing or not.

  37. Billy Bob,

    It would be interesting if he beats UKIP and tops the poll alongside the Conversative Party and Labor Party.

  38. That’s more publicity that will only help UKIP. The electoral Commission allowing it will play into line that the establishment are trying to suppress them.

  39. Mr N
    ” I know there are very depressing studies showing parties at the top of ballots do slightly better,”

    Bloody Hell! Never thought of that. Look at post-war PMs

    A-L
    Atlee
    Churchill
    Eden
    Home
    Callaghan
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron

    M-Z
    Wilson
    Thatcher
    Major

    AND. Every governing party since the Whigs and Tories have had a name with a first letter in the first half of the alphabet.

    So. What do we conclude from that for current issues?

    In vs Out?
    No contest.

    Yes vs No?
    No bias.
    (Mind, Salmond? SNP? Nae chance…)

    UKIP? Titter. How naive.

    Miliband? Oh bugger…

  40. @Ed

    Possibly, but it might highlight Ukip’s manifold splits.

    I’ve only seen one TV interview with Natrass, and next to nothing about him, but he seemed way more personable than Farage.

  41. LeftyLampton

    “AND. Every governing party since the Whigs and Tories have had a name with a first letter in the first half of the alphabet.

    So. What do we conclude from that for current issues?”

    We should maybe conclude that the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and the Liberal-Democrat Party should stop adopting an alternative name when they stand in elections in Scotland.

    Shoving “Scottish” in front of their official party name pushes them way down the alphabetical order on the ballot paper.

  42. UKIP certainly appeal to racists and xenophobes but without the offputting fascistic baggage of the likes of the BNP.

    And – like many protest vote parties they offer simple, direct, soundbite solutions – and as they are not in or anywhere near power – they never have to confront the fact the problems are usually very complex.

    They can mine english nationalism with great effect – appealing to the cosy familiarity of beer and pubs, our ‘bulldog’ spirit and our dislike of being ‘pushed around’ by foriegners, bureaucrats and busy bodies.

    This always puts them at an advantage over any party that has realistic hopes of forming a government – they have to acknowledge the complexity of political solutions and the constraints of international law (like trade agreements) and international finance. They have to appeal to a broad sweep of the electorate.
    UKIP are unlikely to have much appeal outside white english older voters.

  43. @OLDNAT Alec
    ‘There’s absolutely nothing wrong with English references – when applied to England.
    However, are you including Cornwall?’

    Yeah because Cornwall is in England. It’s a different, treasured and very special part of England but it’s in England. Now if Cornwall was a group of Islands many miles off the coast that would be another matter.

    And yes an independent Scotland would be under an obligation to respect the rights of those regions that do not wish to be a part of the new entity. Planting the Saltaire on unwilling territories is imperialism. Can of worms isn’t it this secession business?

  44. Mr Beeswax

    You don’t really understand dry humour do you?

    Incidentally, I’m not sure why anyone would want to plant Titus Salt’s model village elsewhere. Although Saltaire was modelled on New Lanark (and is an equally fascinating place to visit), it’s relevance to the 21st century is somewhat obscure.

  45. Mr N., OldNat, LeftyLampton

    You are leaving out the obvious example where the SNP have sometimes labelled themselves as ‘Alex Salmond for First Minister’. This has had the effect of pushing them up the alphabetical list, and has – apparently – paid some electoral dividends.

  46. 2612

    Not wholly accurate. The tactic of using the party leader’s name as a “strapline” on the regional list (where the candidates were generally less well known) was first adopted by the SSP in 2003 – although “Tommy Sheridan” didn’t have alphabetical priority, the move was credited by some as helping the SSP to gain 5 seats.

    In 2007, the SNP, Solidarity and the Greens took a similar approach.

    Since the label was only used in the List ballot, it is a severe stretch to suggest that using Salmond’s name there somehow influenced the constituency vote.

    As always, one needs to differentiate between actuality and the whining of the losers.

    Had “Alex” been “Willie”, the same tactic would have been adopted.

  47. Because of electoral rulings so obscure that only Anthony knows about them (it’s all to do with bank holidays in Gibraltar) the nominations for South West England had to be in on Tuesday. There were Party slates for only eight Parties:

    An Independence from Europe

    British National Party

    Conservative Party

    English Democrats

    Green Party

    Labour Party

    Liberal Democrats

    UK Independence Party (UKIP)

    Info from: http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Euro-election-candidates-named/story-20998765-detail/story.html#ixzz2zl7osCTj

    So it looks as if the Natrass Party have had the shorter version accepted, but they will now be standing countrywide. I suspect it will cause less confusion than some think.

    What strikes me is the reduction in the number of slates. Apart from AIFE all the above stood in 2009 but so did another nine slates plus one independent (the relentlessly self-promoting Katie Hopkins[1]).

    On the previous thread Guymonde pointed out “In the 2009 Euros others (than the biggish 4) polled 25.9% of the vote whereas current polls show 11%”. Anthony pointed to the long tail – the large number of small Parties eash getting 0.5-2% who tend not to register in polls, especially early in the campaign (the polls showed mid-20s for Others in the last week) .

    It looks as if the tail will be a fair bit shorter this year and it may well be there is more consolidation even among those remaining with UKIP picking up votes from BNP and English Democrats (8.2% between them in 2009) as well as other vanished anti-EU groupusules (Libertas, UK First) and maybe even the Christians. Possibly the Greens will pick up from the small Left Parties not standing. Even Mebyon Kernow isn’t standing.

    [1] I seem to remember at one time that Ms Hopkins was supposed to the standing in the SW for the We Demand a Referendum Party. The country seems to have been spared this delight, whether through lack of cash, ignorance of Gibraltarian Bank Holidays or (best guess) Hopkins saying something really, really unpleasant to Nikki Sinclaire. (Obviously by “saying” I mean promulgating on social media as widely as possible and then claiming it was an accident).

  48. @Leftylampton

    Alphabetical preference didn’t do Gaitskell, Kinnock, Hague, Howard or Brown much good in elections (or IDS who never got that far) but you forgot Heath from the alphabet winners.
    Alexander is your man, obviously

  49. Re. Alphabetical bias (which I once saw named in New Scientist as ‘lexism’) – consider also the parties that have had roles in government in the last 100 years –

    A-L
    Conservative
    Labour
    Liberal Democrat

    M-Z
    Nope!

  50. WES

    Isn’t this a UK site?

    M-Z
    Plaid Cymru
    Sinn Fein
    SNP

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