This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun also had their latest European election voting intention figures. The topline figures continue to show Labour and UKIP battling it out for first place, with the Conservatives off in third – CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 27%, GREEN 6%.

By my reckoning on a uniform swing this would translate into 15 seats for the Conservatives (down 11), 25 seats for Labour (up 12), 5 seats for the Lib Dems (down 6), 21 seats for UKIP (up 8), 1 seat for the Greens (down one) – the BNP look almost certain to lose their two seats. Full tabs are here.


148 Responses to “YouGov European polling”

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  1. First time ever for first comment?

    Anyway, good to see that Scotland is 56% in favour of the EU; that’s well ahead of the next closest (London) at 47%.

    If UKIP does very well, it may have an impact on the Referendum

  2. I had forgot the NF had actually won seats last time !

    I spose Nige and his buddies are an improvement ?

  3. Am I right in thinking these figures would mean no change in Scottish Euroseats? LibDems seem to be a long way ahead of a very poor UKIP

  4. Good earl evening everyone.

    ANTHONY;
    How does this Poll compare with five years ago, please?
    Thank you very much.

  5. Anthony – I built a fancy d’Hont rule spreadsheet which gets very similar numbers to you, except that I get CON 14 seats and LAB 26… The difference is almost certainly the ‘last’ seat in the West Mids and it might be because I used unrounded percentages from last time (to avoid any chance of a tie). But basically we are on the same page.

    I also noticed that the difference (in popular vote terms) between the Lib Dems getting 5 seats and getting 2 is extremely small BUT on a UNS they have a 1.5 to 2 point margin on safety in SE and 3 or 4 points in SW… And the last couple of times, UNS was very accurate for the Lib Dem share in those regions. So a total wipeout looks unlikely to me.

    John B – For Scotland (using a UNS on these vote shares) I get LAB 3 SNP 2 UKIP 1, so quite a bit different from last time. Last time UNS did a reasonable (within a couple of points) job for Scotland, but was way off in 2004.

  6. Just to clarify, for West Mids I get CON 1 LAB 3 UKIP 3 and I suspect you get 2/2/3

  7. @Number Cruncher

    Am I misreading the figures? How do UKIP get a Scottish seat on 5% of the vote, when the Lib Dems on 11% and Cons on 17% don’t?

  8. Sorry – LibDems 10%

  9. Has there ever been the Independence question and EU question on the same Scottish poll?

    Anyway; I see Danny Alexander is signalling that after the next election the Lib Dems won’t be happy with issue by issue negotiations; just overall coalition. So basically ‘give us cabinet seats or else’; could see that playing badly around election time if they stick with the message. Will they be an destabalising party in the next parliament?

    Not that I expect a hung parliament; but the public/media seem to so it might play a role at election time.

    —————————

    BNP are politically dead which is lovely to see.

    Another impact of the Scottish vote; would the London politically class become even more terrified of holding a European vote? Odd answer to the second EU question though; but I suppose the questions is ‘light’ enough for people to think it means they see the renegotiation protecting their interest rather than Cameron.

    Does raise the point though that its in the interest of the three parties to press for renegotiation on some terms; why their so divided in the EU elections am really not sure.

  10. Sorry – UKIP 6. But the question remains: what makes you think UKIP are going to get anywhere near winning a Scottish seat?

  11. @ John B:
    Applying the UNS to the shares from last time gives CON 8.5% LIB 6.5% UKIP 14.2%

  12. @ John B:

    Applying the UNS to those shares from last time gives: CON 8.5% LIB 6.5% UKIP 14.2%

    Whether I (or others) think Scotland will actually vote like that is another question, but purely on the maths, that’s what comes out…

  13. Fraser

    Re-negotiation? No chance! At least, according to Merkel and others. If UKIP does well and starts to create even more mayhem in the Europarliament some may well feel it’s better to let rUK leave.

    Would Scotland get its own referendum on whether or not to leave the EU?

  14. @Fraser

    Danny Alexander is demanding cabinet seats after the next election? From the benches in the House of Lords?

  15. Intrigued by last evening’s SNP party political (yes, I was in Glasgow).

    Not a twitch, really, about the Euro-poll. Straight and exclusively to the #indyref issue.

  16. @ John B

    After the 2010 agreement; the Lib Dems were quite shocked after being told by David Cameron they’d have to stand during cabinet sessions:

    “We only said you could have a place at the table”

  17. Number Cruncher

    We’ve actually had four separate EP polls for Scotland and none of them show UKIP ahead of the Conservatives. I think your figures show the perils of UNS. There has also been some EP polls for Wales and one for London. You might want to incorporate these into your model, the various links can be obtained via the Wiki page:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

    (though Wiki’s d’Hondt calculation looks dodgy to me). As I said on the Scotland page it is possible that UKIP could pick up a seat (though more likely at the expense of the big two) but not probably.

    Of course UKIP not piling up as many votes in Scotland will mean that they are getting even more elsewhere.

  18. Malcolm Redfellow

    I was intrigued by the “Scottish” Labour Party’s PPB for the Euros just shown.

    Like the SNP one (and I suspect most others) it concentrated entirely on domestic issues.

    Oddly, however, the issues were English ones – student fees, nursery places, house building. all dealt with only in the context of Westminster governance of England.

    A strange (or just poverty driven?) decision by SLab to put that out.

  19. Roger Mexico – I agree with you and I’m not advocating using UNS for Scotland. But John B’s original question was:

    Am I right in thinking these figures would mean no change in Scottish Euroseats? LibDems seem to be a long way ahead of a very poor UKIP

    —–
    Since Anthony was talking about a this poll and a UNS I’m simply what the Scottish seats on a UNS basis, not advocating UNS.

    I’ll have a closer look at the wikipedia d’Hondt projections…

  20. Wikipedia seats are wrong for the 14-16 April poll… The seats should be 3-2-1 for all four polls.

    Basically on these sorts of numbers it is between UKIP and the Tories for the allocation of the 7th seat, provided one of them gets above about 9 or 9.5%. If neither does, then Labour or the SNP could get an extra seat. (Because the SNP have one more seat than Labour on these numbers, it would be very close between SNP getting 4 and LAB 2 or SNP and LAB getting 3 each).

  21. 6th seat, not 7th

  22. I, as usual, find myself in something of a minority in that I think a reasoned and reasonable renegotiation of our terms of membership, is perfectly achievable. The majority of people would settle for this and be quite content to stay in. The biggest obstacle would appear to be UKIP because a large and belligerent UKIP contingent may well convince the EU that the UK is not likely to negotiate in good faith. I think we have a once in a generation opportunity to change our relationship with our EU partners for the better and I fear we are about to blow it.

    I have to say that I find it very difficult to see any sensible case for us leaving the EU just as I find it unfathomable that Scotland is seriously contemplating leaving the UK. Single markets without artificial trade barriers are the holy graile of a nation’s prosperity. Not union at any price of course but reasonable men can make reasonable accommodations and we can all benefit.

  23. I still think UKIP will clinch it. UKIP 35% lab 32% I’m guessing.

  24. @Number Cruncher et al

    Thank you for that help.

    Still one unanswered question: Will Scotland get its own referendum on Europe?

    Enjoy the rest of the evening, all

  25. Has anybody came across this yet?

    http://uk.isidewith.com/

  26. I watched the UKIP PPB tonight and [snip] one had to admit that it was quite a clever and slick piece of propaganda, topped off with a neat little rhetorical flourish from Nige.

    The People’s Army might have some legs, you know.

    “We’re on the march with Nigel’s Army, we’re all going to leave the EEC, and we’ll really shake Van Rompuy up when our droves of MEPs turn up………

    Because Nigel’s Army will be the best represented team.”

    Apologies to the great Ally MacLeod and all other legendary Scottish football managers (Moyes, McLeish, Ormond, Brown, Smith, Strachan, Lambert etc)

    :-)

  27. I just watched that PPB too, and it was fairly standard fare. Lots of soundbites from “Ordinary people” and shocking-sounding quoted statistics. At least it wasn’t aliens over Bradford again.

  28. rmj1

    !I, as usual, find myself in something of a minority in that I think a reasoned and reasonable renegotiation of our terms of membership, is perfectly achievable.”

    Unfortunately Barosso disagrees with you.One way ” to reform the EU was to review its acquis, a body of legislation estimated to comprise of over 150,000 pages of regulations, on a case-by-case basis.”

    “The other one is to have a fundamental discussion about the competences of the EU, even in terms of renationalisation. I think the second approach is doomed to failure.”

    Now, as wel all know, when Barosso speaks on anything EU-ish, he speaks ex-cathedra and his views may not be considered as anything other than equivalent to the absolute truth. (Fe)

    So, sorry, but your chances of that have been totally stuffed.

  29. Loose seats?

    Sounds like the European Parliament could do with a bit of maintenance.

  30. Harry

    LOL

    Reminds me of when I condemned a suggestion for discussion at the EIS National Conference as “that motion is far too loose”.

  31. So there are some interesting possibilities as a result of potential referenda and Euro-shenanigans:

    1) Independent Scotland outside the EU, UK inside
    2) Independent Scotland inside the EU, UK inside
    3) Independent Scotland inside the EU, UK outside
    4) Independent Scotland outside the EU, UK outside
    5) UK inside
    6) UK outside

    Perhaps 3) is the most intriguing. All the problems identified by the No camp, but for the opposite reasons…

  32. @TheSheep

    It would be typical of politics for the largely pro-EU state to be denied automatic entry, while the largely eurosceptic state stays in.

  33. Sorry peeps I put ‘NF’ earlier on when I meant ‘BNP’.

    Silly me, the question still stands though, is UKIP an improvement on the above, or are they just wolves in sheeps’ clothing…Nige reckons they’re not racist but would you want ’em living next door ?

  34. @Oldnat

    I told you I was in a minority. Barosso, you may find, will find a totally different truth when necessary. “There is no room for negotiation” is always a good opening gambit.

    @BLUEBOB

    Interesting. Apparently I’m a Tory.

  35. TheSheep

    Except that with 3) many companies would see a future, better together in Europe, by relocating to Scotland. So some of the “problems identified by the No camp” would operate in reverse.

  36. rmj1

    I have been assured by many on here that when Barosso says something, it cannot be gainsaid.

    Of course, you may be right and they may be guilty of cherry picking Barosso’s comments to suit their paretisan stance.

    On UKPR? Heaven forfend! (Fe)

  37. UKIP broadcast will resonate with so many, shows the work we have to do to steer people away from Nige..

  38. EL,

    It’s a difficult one. Were the BNP a small gang of hardcore racists carried along on a voter base with immigration concerns and nowhere else to turn?

    Or were the BNP an outlet for the votes of a significant number of fascists using the legitimate grievances of some as a veneer of respectability to incite racial unrest? Be quite useful to have Reg back to offer his view.

    However in my view it’s probably better to have those voters in UKIP where they’re diluted by people who may be hard-right but probably aren’t dangerous.

    That’s assuming the former BNP voters were dangerous anyway – I assume some were just concerned about immigrants, not helped by press reporting and the seeming unreceptiveness of other parties, and voted BNP despite their overt fascism, not because of it.

  39. @CHRISLANE1945
    In comparison to the result of 2009 EE, this VI poll shows Labour +14, UKIP +10, CON -6, LD -4, Green – 3 and Others -11.
    I tried, by examining the latest EE polls average in the rest of the EU, to find if there are cases where the senior coalition partner comes third, being overtaken by two opposition parties . In fact there are three cases where this occurs: The Liberals (ER) of Estonia and the Social Democrats of Denmark and France.

    FRANCE
    UMP (EPP) 23.5 (-4.4)
    FN (Far Right) 22.1 (+15.8)
    PS (PES) 18.8 (+2.3)
    MODEM-UDI (ALDE) 9.8 (+1.3)
    EELV (Green-EFA) 8.8 (-7.5)
    FG (EUL/NGL) 8 (+1.5)

    DENMARK
    DF (EFD) 25.1 (+9.8)
    V (ALDE) 23.7 (+3.5)
    S (PES) 21.7 (+0.2)
    M-EU (EUL/NGL) 8.4 (+1.2)
    RV (ALDE) 7.8 (+3.5)
    SFP (Green-EFA) 5.9 (-10)
    KFR (EPP) 4.4 (-8.3)

    ESTONIA
    KESK (ALDE) 27 (+0.9)
    SDE (PES) 26 (+17.3)
    ER (ALDE) 24 (+8.7)
    IRL (EPP) 16 (+3.5)
    Independent List I. Tarand (Green/EFA) – (-27)

    As we see, even in this three cases things are not so bad for the party of the PM as they are for the Tories.
    The leads are very small and the aforementioned parties, despite their third position, have better results than in 2009, which is not the case for the party of D. Cameron, which is heading for its worst EE result since 1979.

  40. Oldnat

    ‘So some of the ‘problems identified by the No camp’ would operate in reverse.’

    You are Dr Pangloss and I claim my £5 !

    I have never known you admit to any possible future for Scotland that would not be better with a Yes vote.

  41. We haven’t had the UKIP PPB yet – but I gather UKIP are urging people to vote on May 2nd.

    That could be interesting!

  42. It all sounds like there might be spill-over for UKIP in the london borough elections. If these do not go well for Labour there might well be an agitation over the leadership sooner rather than later….

    If UKIP do well in both sets of elections – EU and local – it may also influence a close referendum in Scotland and I have long felt that none of our current main party leaders could long survive a yes vote in Scotland.

    it may turn out the the flag of convenience that was fixed term parliaments may sink more than one battleship….that indeed would be a most curious outcome from the coalition deal of 2010 – changing politics in a manner none of the parties expected.

    It has to be observed such a planetary alignment remains improbable but perhaps after all these long years of talk about a party realignment in UK politics it will be delivered Deus ex Machina from a direction few expected and for which none will be prepared…

  43. VIRGILIO
    Very many thanks for these figures; they are very interesting.

  44. Mr N

    A thoughtful reply which sort of corresponds with my thinking as well, l suppose we will only know the true cut of Nige’s jib if he ever gets into a position of power.

  45. Ewen Lightfoot

    I only said “some”!

    Actually I agree with Alec, when at some point he said some things would be easier, some harder, with indy.

    What Scots have to do is measure the balance of probabilities under different possible futures. That’s rather hard, and I’m surprised that there are comparatively few DKs under these circumstances

    As the polls show, slightly more see difficulties being greater than opportunities.

    They also show that a likely decision by the UK to pull us out of the EU would tip more into voting Yes.

    Most Scots are in favour of staying in a Union – but the European one seems to be the more important one.

  46. @Bluebob

    Thanks for that, interesting little questionnaire.
    Given AW’s stricture that you’re not supposed to know what my allegiance is (ROFL) I can’t really share my results so I’ll just say I was a touch alarmed to find that I’m nearer to the BNP than I am to one of the two largest mainstream parties.

  47. Oldnat,

    Apparently that PPB screenshot of May 2nd was from a 2013 election broadcast, at which it was legitimate to vote UKIP in county council elections! Funny while it lasted though.

  48. @ John Murphy,

    If these do not go well for Labour there might well be an agitation over the leadership sooner rather than later….

    There won’t be. You can’t swap leaders less than a year before a general election unless the current one dies, and not even [email protected] H0dges is quite that motivated to see the back of Miliband.

    What there will be is a bunch of Labour people complaining about strategy and forecasting doom in 2015, but that happens all the time anyway.

  49. Mrnameless

    Thanks for that. So many good stories are spoiled by little things like facts! :-)

  50. Oldnat

    There you go again ,when challenged on YOUR views you retreat behind what the polls may or may not say.
    l prefer you in Panglossian mode, if Yes wins it will be because AS has been able to offer the Scots hope for a better future, a rare achievement in this tired old polity.

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