The first two post-Easter polls today share a three point lead for Labour.

The twice weekly Populus poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. (Tabs here).

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%


132 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. @Carfrew

    My guess is that we’re not going to hear too much on GE policies from Labour until after the referendum.
    Milliband’s general problem is that he will find it increasingly difficult to be ‘all things leftish’ to those spanning from the centre to the oldish real left.

  2. MitM,

    his National Labour Party only polled 1.5% and 13 seats, but he headed a government of 518 coalition (mostly Conservative) MPs.

    I read a story (I think in the Independent) alleging that Labour’s going to assign a team to expose what they perceive as lies about Labour as soon as they appear.

    Given their not inconsiderable social media reach and the effectiveness of that tactic for the Obama campaign in 2012, it could help them counteract some of the press barrage.

    It’s a much mocked strategy, modelling the Labour campaign on the Obama campaign, because people don’t think Miliband is as good a candidate as Obama.

    While Obama’s appeal was certainly a large part of the victory, as was the massive advertising which doesn’t apply here (at least not on trad. media), it was the massive amount of ground work done by volunteers and the huge voter ID operation undertaken. Both those things are perfectly possible here and Labour, with by far the most members and activists, are best placed to do them.

    For team Purple’s part, they have supporters who seem to have the zeal of the recent convert. Any criticism bounces of them, it seems, and for that reason the press will find it hard to make much of a dent.

    Pressman seems to think that this is 1983 and “Miliband and Farage are rubbish” is a good attack line. It might have some effectiveness but at some point people will surely wonder why the papers are spending all their time on two guys who aren’t particularly interesting, and not talking about policy matters.

    Also, if anyone saw the UKIP campaign launch in Sheffield yesterday, I was amused to note they held it in a Green ward of a staunchly Labour city.

  3. @John B

    I’m not sure he needs to be. Enough have been burned by flirting with alternatives that they may well vote Lab even if through gritted teeth. Even some Tories in the public sector may vote Labour now. Miliband’s flank is more secure than Tories so he can move rightwards… the battle is over the biggest electoral concerns, as revealed by Mori etc…

  4. @Maninthemiddle: “the majority of our laws are made in Brussels”

    No, they aren’t. This [has] been discredited, including by Channel 4’s FactCheck blog and the BBC’s More or Less programme. Some estimates put the true level at below 10% (and that’s mostly regulations necessary for the single market).

    https://fullfact.org/europe/eu_make_uk_laws_70_per_cent-29589

  5. NHS data has just been released showing a huge fall in recent years in the number of people turning up at hospitals having been the victim of serious violence.
    ———–
    Hooray for:
    1. The ‘feminisation’ of society;
    2. An end to gay-bashing being seen as ‘okay’;
    3. Computer games which allow some people to behave like macho idiots without other people getting hurt in the process!

    That’s my pet theories, fwiw.

  6. @Carfrew

    ‘Through gritted teeth’ is often necessary in winner takes all elections. The alternative is either you don’t vote or you vote for someone who’s going to lose.

    Personal pride in sticking to your guns versus contributing to a second option victory? Not always an easy decision. My father claims that he never voted for a winning candidate in any election, local, GE or Euro, until into the 1990s. Obivously I’ve no way of knowing for sure, but it would be quite possible.

  7. @CARFREW

    Ecstasy has been credited for the fall in violence, particularly football-related:

    http://www.idmu.co.uk/exviolence.htm

  8. Surely the fall in assault statistics is because the British police are now so corrupt, venal, violent and downright nasty that few people think it’s worth their while telling the medical staff their injuries were inflicted?

    No?

  9. john B

    depends what people believe is at stake, as to whether they will go for the luxury of purity or not.

  10. You can legislate that everything with 4 legs is now a table but in reality a horse is still a horse.

    Just like you can tell me crime is falling as much as you like, but in my own personal experience crime is rising, and many others reflect this. Statistics can be massaged to reflect the intended view.

    There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

  11. Neil

    While I would like to personally claim credit for falling crime rates, as this has been a phenomena in all developed European and North American Nations for the last 20 Years I am afraid I will have to put it down primarily to Demographics.

    Less people under the age of 25 (The most likely to both Commit and be victims of crime) and more over the age of 65 and possibly the removal of lead from common items and fuel.

  12. john b

    Last week I asked AW if it might be possible to have a separate Scottish system for calculating seat numbers, given the difference between the effects north and south of the Border produced by having a very different political set up. There was no reply

    That’s because he already has one on full glorious Technicolour:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/advanced-swingometer-map

    Click on the GB/Scotland/Wales boxes and then use the up and down arrows to alter from the 2010 GE Party percentages. You’ll need to play about with the arrows a bit to get used to it. It automatically adjusts to keep the percent total 100 and I find it’s best to work out what Others is and move R to L.

    If you need the latest Welsh figures you’re best going through Roger Scully’s blog as he has a good list. The last one he gives is for February (Lab 42, Con 24, L/D 9, PC 14, UKIP 7, Other 4).

  13. @Amber
    ” Computer games which allow some people to behave like macho idiots without other people getting hurt in the process!”

    I would add:
    Blogs/forums where people vent their spleen by making vicious ad hominem attacks on other posters.

    So if AW is interested in reducing crime he should snip back the snipping :)

  14. Mr Nameless

    There will be plenty of stick coming the way of Miliband and Farage, but also positive campaigning for the tories ‘Cam The Man’ will be the theme as we associate him with the working class reader.

    What we have to do, both NI and the Mail/Telegraph is on the one hand stress that it does matter for middle England who wins – that Miliband is to the left of the Blair that we supported – but by the same token stressing that Farage’s extremism (and the bullets to fire with some very dodgy candidates) are no way forward for a modern country.

  15. “‘Cam The Man’ will be the theme as we associate him with the working class reader.”

    ———

    This I gotta see…

  16. @Neil A

    “Surely the fall in assault statistics is because the British police are now so corrupt, venal, violent and downright nasty that few people think it’s worth their while telling the medical staff their injuries were inflicted?”

    Come on, I’m not having this. I accept most of what you say here, but downright nasty? That’s a bit over the top, isn’t it, although I suppose you’d know better than anyone else.

    :-)

    @Pressman

    “There will be plenty of stick coming the way of Miliband and Farage, but also positive campaigning for the tories ‘Cam The Man’ will be the theme as we associate him with the working class reader.”

    I’m trying to take you seriously, I really am, but this is all starting to seem like a spoof to me.

  17. Amazing prog on R4 just finished, it was about the vast numbers of people living in illegal /semi-legal shanty accommodation in London. London really is another country these days, a true ‘World City’ ,complete with Favellas it seems.

  18. @RogerH

    According to that article though, seems as though with long term use it goes the other way…

    “Summary – Ecstasy & Violence Ecstasy produces a short-term increase in serotonin secretion, and raised levels of serotonin in the brain. There is compelling evidence for a role played by serotonin metabolism in violent and aggressive criminal behaviour, attributed by most authors to a low level of serotonin in the brain and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF).

    On the face of it, the widespread anecdotal reports of the calming and anti-aggressive properties of ecstasy are supported by the scientific literature. However, the long-term depletion of serotonin levels following prolonged or heavy use of ecstasy could well contribute to an increased propensity for violent behaviour or suicidal tendencies. There is increasing evidence of psychological disturbance among heavy or long-term ecstasy users.”

    Complicated, innit? I’m leaning towards increase in coffee shops as the deciding factor myself…

  19. @Carfew. Thanks for the link, that lead chart really does look like a correlation.

    Labour actually publishing some policies will leave them open to the critique that their figures don’t add up. You can’t oppose every cut and still reduce the deficit, but until you publish policy no one can cost them.

    Personality wise IMO Milliband is a liability, more of a Kinnock than a Blair. Alastair Darling is a far more winsome and plausible character than Balls and with the the Scottish play out of the way he could be moved to Treasury which would help with credibility. What Cameron should do at PMQ is ape Balls’s flatline gesture then raise his hand at the end to indicate soaring economy… oh hang on a bit that might not look too good.

  20. @Crossbat

    I dunno though… they could put Cammers in a white van, munching a pasty, on his way to Bingo… could work…

  21. with Pharrell on the van stereo…

  22. Cam the Man; Call me Dave #2. Good grief…

  23. Thought Cameron had accepted he was too posh, didn’t he acknowledge this in regards to the Scots indy issue as to why he was trying to not get involved.

    Cammo should focus on recruting fellow toffs let someone like David Davis focus on recruiting the working class.

  24. “‘Coz I’m Happeeeee!! (Clap along, if you feel etc.)…”

  25. Pressman,
    I believe that Samantha Cameron is referred to by an adoring press as Sam
    Cam.A campaign based therefore on Cam the Man may well cause err….
    confusion.

  26. …consider the women’s vote which we occasionally hear about; they’ll love a Cam’s the Man strategy. Or maybe not so much.

  27. Pressman
    The late Simon Hoggart in one of his last pieces pointed out that DC had admitted he could not grow a moustache …whatever his other strengths, Cam is a long way from macho, which is difficult to portray if it’s not there, William Hague and his baseball cap wearing,14 pints a day persona springs to mind.
    Positive projection is a lot more difficult to bring off than knocking copy.

  28. @MrBeez

    Many people don’t tot up the figures. Polling shows there are those who don’t even know we are still piling on the debt…

    Personality isn’t as big a deal as some think, e.g. Churchill despite winning the war, losing to Atlee

    Anyways, coffee time!!…

  29. EWEN LIGHTFOOT

    Shanties in London. Not surprised. Whatever happened to Social Housing?
    Would be okay if the sheds were micro houses.

    http://www.modenus.com/blog/greendesign/dwelle

  30. john b

    Any chance of the latest YouGuv in more detail? Or did I miss the link somewhere?

    It’s here if somewhat buried among lots of post-Easter catching-up on the website:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zvvptj27x4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220414.pdf

    Unlike the one that came out on Friday, it looks fairly normal. However polls around bank holidays can be a bit dodgy and I reckon we need to see the rest from this week before declaring the gap closing.

    It also includes a new Euro poll:

    Con 22 (-1)

    Lab 30 (-)

    L/D 10 (+1)

    UKIP 27 (-1)

    Green 6 (+1)

    SNP/PC 3 (-1)

    BNP 1 (+1)

    Some other party 1 (-)

    Changes from last YouGov (3-4 Apr) and surprisingly small (the only thing significant is a 3 point rise in DKs).

    YouGov seems to be asking about likelihood to vote but are not yet adjusting for it. What I do find interesting is while UKIP voters show the highest rating for LTV=10 (64%) Labour and the Lib Dems share second place with 58% and it’s the Conservatives who come a distant last with 48%. This gives LTV=10 figures of:

    Con 18

    Lab 31

    L/D 11

    UKIP 30

    Green 6

    SNP/PC 4

    BNP 1

    Some other party 1

    It’s worth pointing out though that 10% of LTV=10 voters are still saying they are undecided.

    This reluctance to vote among Tories is extremely unusual – normally it’s Labour that has the problem getting people out. This may possibly be due to the urban pattern of local elections on the same day – local Labour Parties tend to see the Euros as a bit of an irrelevance but will work hard for the locals. We saw a very similar pattern in the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph so sulky Conservatives amy well be staying at home.

    YouGov also asked its tracker Euro Referendum questions and, despite Mr Farage’s attempt to persuade, more people would still vote to stay in, even before a hypothetical Cameron renegotiation

  31. @ JimJam

    “Bookmakers odds reflect the bets placed and should polls move I would expect a delay in odds moving until net bets placed on different outcomes to those placed thus far.”

    We had this debate a few weeks ago where some people struggled to understand how bookmakers work, your post hits the nail on the head.

  32. You might scoff but we will be emphasising Cam as The Man who pulled Briatin out of a disastrous economic situation caused by Labour and we are now on the long haul to prosperity again.

    Will people want to risk the recovery in the hands of [Ed Miliband, who they perceive as being] weak and ineffectual ?

  33. Perhaps uncover a family link between George and Ozzy Osbourne (George dropped the u to prove how much a non-U man of the people he is)?

  34. “Less people under the age of 25 (The most likely to both Commit and be victims of crime) and more over the age of 65 and possibly the removal of lead from common items and fuel.”

    ———

    And coffee…

  35. Carfrew
    Yes indeed !

  36. @Ewen

    Turns out peeps can change the subject, but we aren’t allowed to point out changes of subject apparently… Been modded for it before. Who knew?…

  37. Anyway, Pressman, it’s nice of you to let us know what your Central Office is up to, so the Labour Party can be prepared in good time. Thank you.

  38. @Pressman

    “You might scoff but we will be emphasising Cam as The Man who pulled Briatin out of a disastrous economic situation caused by Labour and we are now on the long haul to prosperity again.”

    Now I know it’s a spoof!

    :-)

  39. @CARFREW

    I agree it’s largely anecdotal but typical ecstasy users won’t be (or have been) long-term or heavy users. As with most things, though, I doubt there’s any one cause.

  40. @ROGER MEXICO

    A lot of labour voters do not even have to bother voting though. Their postal votes are already sitting in offices waiting to go out.

  41. @RogerH

    And one’s mentioned the pill and hormones in the water supply yet. ‘Course, Thorium would change everything…

  42. (and no one’s mentioned…)

  43. Incidentally, there must be an opportunity for studying the effect of marijuana legalisation on crime rates in the USA.

  44. Carfrew
    AW has made snippets to Pressman ‘s copy, so I spose that’s alright then.

  45. @RogerH

    …and the effects on polling…

  46. @ Pressman

    “Will people want to risk the recovery in the hands of [Ed Miliband, who they perceive as being] weak and ineffectual ?”

    According to pretty much every opinion poll for the last three years, yes.

    This notion that people vote mainly based on a leaders personality rather than a core set of convictions and values is unproven nonsense.

  47. @MrNameless

    “For team Purple’s part, they have supporters who seem to have the zeal of the recent convert. Any criticism bounces of them, it seems, and for that reason the press will find it hard to make much of a dent.”

    I must admit, I’ve been struck with how many UKIP boots I’ve see on the ground recently, and in some interesting places too. I was enjoying my little Sunday run a few weeks ago and ventured, as I often do, deep into Tory heartland country, a tapestry of villages, sleepy hamlets, farms, private estates and large country houses (no, not Chelmsley Wood, if you’re trying to guess), when I happened upon a UKIP caravan parked on the green in one of the larger villages that marked my rustic route. It was manned by three or four party workers, leafleting and offering informative conversation with whoever in the local population of about 500 or so cared to join them. They seemed to be busy and enjoying themselves, apparently oblivious to the friendly heckling I afforded them as I sped by (well, alright, maybe not sped; more hobbled!).

    They are burrowing deep into leafy and bucolic Tory England for their votes.

  48. @Roger Mexico

    Many thanks! I had not dared explore the more intricate parts of the site due to a pathological fear of technology.

    Not easy to use, however. Numbers keep changing whether you want them to or not. However, that’s just like life, really.

    I was interested to see what happened when the SNP got above 35%. Also the Conservatives do better than I might have expected even on quite small swings.

    As I have said before on this site, the Scottish results in 2015 will see some strange things happening, of that I am sure.

  49. @Colin

    “Labour’s little gift from Clegg is 29% of 2010 LD”

    That crossbreak bounces all over the place. But if you average it out, it’s not moved more than 2% in either direction for a couple of *years*. It’s absolutely rock solid.

    And, unsurprisingly, the polls where it hits the bottom end of its moe range tend to be those showing a smaller than average Labour leadf.

  50. @Skippy

    Have you wandered in off another forum where that sort of comment is par for the course?

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