The first two post-Easter polls today share a three point lead for Labour.

The twice weekly Populus poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. (Tabs here).

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%


132 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. @RogerM

    And thanks too for yours of 1.36. I see YouGuv have Scots Labour on 34 and SNP on 30, with Tories below 20. YouGuv and Populus seem to be drawing closer together – Populus drawing closer to YouGuv by improving methodology?

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  2. @ John B,

    Milliband’s general problem is that he will find it increasingly difficult to be ‘all things leftish’ to those spanning from the centre to the oldish real left.

    To mangle the old joke about the bear, Miliband doesn’t have to outrun Dennis Skinner, he just has to outrun David Cameron. (I’ll grant that it may not be particularly effective in Scotland, where he also has to outrun Alex Salmond.)

    @ Mr. Nameless,

    I read a story (I think in the Independent) alleging that Labour’s going to assign a team to expose what they perceive as lies about Labour as soon as they appear.

    That’s not an Obama strategy, that’s a Mandelson/Campbell strategy from 1997. Excalibur, the rapid response unit and all that. And we all know what a disaster that campaign was for Labour… oh wait.

    @ Pressman,

    also positive campaigning for the tories ‘Cam The Man’ will be the theme as we associate him with the working class reader.

    Please, please run this campaign.

    Also apparently the hunting lobby is trying to get a repeal of the hunting ban into the 2015 Conservative Manifesto. We all know dogs are very working class (whippets!) and I’m sure that would really help Cameron connect to the common man. It would be fantastic if you could get the Sun to campaign for that too?

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  3. The effects on polling of the reducing crime rate is probably negligible because the majority of electors simply don’t believe it.

    I have found it interesting that in most conversations I have had, most people put the reduction in crime down to the police being so stretched that they don’t record as much crime as really exists – whereas I do believe the reality is that demographics are changing crime levels downwards throughout the western world.

    However, most of my fellow citizens seemingly do not want to believe this good news for some reason – I wonder what the mass psychology is behind this?!

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  4. Tony Dean

    I suppose it comes form the mistake of believing what you read in the Newspapers or view on entertainment programmes masquerading as reality.

    The statistics are boring but paint a very different picture to that portrayed by the Media.

    The Truth is Crime levels were 30% Higher and Murder rates 300 Higher Per Year when I became a Police Officer back in 1980 than they are now.

    Which let’s face it is a good news story but as we know Good news is no news.

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  5. Oh I’m so pleased to read here that Cammo is going to be the next working mans hero.

    I’ve had another dose of radiotherapy today & really, really needed a laugh so Pressman – thank you !

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  6. The Public Administration Select Committee are not convinced those crime stats are accurate & published a report saying so.

    http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/public-administration-select-committee/news/crime-stats-substantive/

    The PASC report, Caught Redhanded: Why we can’t rely on Police Recorded Crime, published today, Wednesday 9th April 2014, says:

    There is strong evidence that the police under-record crime, particularly sexual crimes such as rape in many police areas.
    This is due to “lax compliance with the agreed national standard of victim-focussed crime recording.”
    As a result of PASC’s inquiry, the UK Statistics Authority has already stripped Police Recorded Crime data of the quality kite mark, “National Statistics”.
    The Home Office, the Office of National Statistics and the UK Statistics Authority have all been “far too passive”.
    Numerical targets drive perverse incentives to mis-record crime.
    Associated “attitudes and behaviour… have become ingrained, including within senior police leadership” raising “broader concerns about policing values”.
    This presents officers with “a conflict between achievement of targets and core policing values.”
    PASC “deprecate the use of targets in the strongest possible terms” and accuses the police of adopting a “flawed leadership model, contrary to the policing Code of Ethics.”

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  7. Very small reduction in the deficit announced – really quit striking that Osborne has been miles from his debt and deficit targets since 2010, but equally striking that he isn’t being punished for what is a really rather enormous failure, in his own terms. I don’t think the public really cares too much about the deficit, as it is a remote and inaccessible issue that doesn’t really impinge on day to day life. In their central policy objective, the coalition will be have failed, but it won’t have any substantial polling effects I suspect.

    Crime stats – more grounded, but again, people just don’t seem to realise what the numbers mean. It’s great news, as it has been for a long time, dating back to John Major’s tenure. It’s been mirrored pretty much all over the world, yet ordinary voters seem to be so stupid that they still keep saying things like ‘crime is rising and the figures must be wrong’.

    There is probably an under recording of crime within the police service, which is why their figures are no longer national statistics, but the research out today is from hospitals – nothing to do with normal crime figures.

    We now have so much data, from the NHS, police, crime surveys and the insurance industry that we really should put to bed any notion that crime isn’t falling. It has, massively. The reasons behind this fall are really what we should be discussing now, to make sure we keep our foot on the (unleaded) gas.

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  8. [Snip]

    Farage also promotes [...] that leaving nthe EU will make some big difference. if we leave the EU and join the EEA and stay in the single market like Norway we will still be obeying EU rules and subject to free movement of labouir and pay into regional funds.
    Personally I am not bothered if we leave the EU for the EEA but I am not fooled that it will make a great deal of difference. What Farage refuses to answer id what would happen to all our inward investemt if we left the EU completely.
    Kippers seem to think that if we left the EU and single market then the EU would fall over itself to give us some sort of better deal than we had before ie even better than the one it has between its own members. Does that make sense?

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  9. Don’t forget the “broken Britain” narrative we had to endure during Labour’s government. Maybe it’s hard to sell the “it was broken but we fixed it” line without owning up that it wasn’t particularly broken at all, after all.

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  10. Mr Beeswax

    ‘Labour actually publishing some policies will leave them open to the critique that their figures don’t add up. You can’t oppose every cut and still reduce the deficit, but until you publish policy no one can cost them.’

    The effect of Labour’s policy announcements is likely to be neutral: for every positive one there will be one that the Tories and the media can attack. It’s the economy stupid!!

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  11. Dave as the working class hero? I’m reminded of that joke about David Gower – “the school he went to was so posh the gym was called James!”

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  12. I wonder why so many bloggers appear to be Labour supporters. When one of them castigates Osborne for not reducing the deficit left by the last (hopefully) Labour government as far or as fast as he hoped let us remember that years of spending what we did not have had built up a huge State sector which is not easy to unravel without causing mass unemployment. Those of us who worked in the Private sector have seen our pensions hardly increase in the last 15 years whereas those in the State sector are inflation-proofed.

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  13. ROBIN

    I don’t know about a couple of years-I haven’t checked.

    But I looked at trends since start of Feb.

    Expressed as % of 2010 LD vote including WNV/DK , in order to combine defection rate with don’t know what to do rate-and averaging all polls in each week , the trend for a Lab VI % has been
    Feb
    28
    25
    29
    28
    Mar
    26
    26
    27
    25
    26
    Apr
    25
    25
    25
    22

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  14. ALEC

    @”Very small reduction in the deficit announced ”

    As forecast in the Budget-£7bn down on 12/13

    Tax Revenues up-an encouraging sign.

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  15. @ Paul Guy

    ‘Those of us who worked in the Private sector have seen our pensions hardly increase in the last 15 years whereas those in the State sector are inflation-proofed.’

    Those with a defined benefit pension in the private sector have seen them rise – the 1995 Pension Act required occupational pension schemes to provide increases to pensions in payment in line with RP up to a maximum rate. This requirement was amended in 2011 so that pensions in payment must now be increased in line with CPI, as follows:

    for benefits earned after 6 April 1997, the increase is limited to 5%;
    for benefits earned after 6 April 2005, the increase is limited to 2.5%.

    So, some private sector pensioners have had pretty much full protection.

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  16. @Paul Guy

    What many in the private sector forget during economic hard times is that they had it good in the good times. The civil contract with those in the public sector is simple:
    We pay you less than you’d get in the private sector, but we give you a guaranteed job and a guaranteed pension.

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  17. NEWFORESTRASDICAL

    @”Those with a defined benefit pension in the private sector have seen them rise” –

    Mmmm-but they have also seen the availability of DB schemes collapse . The Defined Benefit Pension Scheme is largely a Public Sector employment benefit today.
    For the Private Sector worker, it is largely a Defined Contribution Scheme , which transfers all investment risk to the member, presenting him/her with a lump sum of indeterminate size, and the responsibility & enormous cost of buying an indexed annuity to gain the protection you refer to.

    http://www.ifs.org.uk/pr/ps_pensions.pdf

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  18. JOHNB

    @”We pay you less than you’d get in the private sector,”

    Well that depends what you are comparing :-

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_355119.pdf

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  19. Hi John B – to the extent that jobs in Private and State sectors are similar, analysis indicates that there is little differential in pay – possibly higher in State sector.

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  20. @ Colin

    Yes, but Mr Guy was talking about pensioners who have retired in the last fifteen years. Most of these people would have retired with a large amount of their non-state retirement income (assuming they had any, which is another subject) made up of a defined benefit pension whether they were in the public or private sector. These are protected in the way I outlined. The DB collapse mainly affected new members up until the last couple of years, so while you are right about the situation for people in employment today that was not what the post was referring to.

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  21. Paul Guy,

    The point is Osborne set himself deficit reduction targets and missed them by a mile.

    That does not mean the deficit reduction targets were a good thing in the first place. That’s a separate question. I would guess the public don’t care much about that.

    Does anyone know if polling shows deficit reduction is a priority for many people?

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  22. NEWFOREST RASDICAL

    @”pensioners who have retired in the last fifteen years. Most of these people would have retired with a large amount of their non-state retirement income (assuming they had any, which is another subject) made up of a defined benefit pension”

    % Private Sector Employee Pension membership in a DB Pension Scheme :-

    1997 33%
    2012 8%

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  23. I wonder if there may be a statistics overload that is causing a sort of induced
    amnesia amongst the voting public at large.Most people simply cannot even
    Begin to envisage how large the deficit is,so they simply refuse to think about it. In those circumstances those with popular policies will appeal,
    Whether they are sensible or not.

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  24. A in W

    Most of us have our own deficits to worry about and little time for one we had bugger all to do with – it wasn’t my idea to invade Iraq etc etc.

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  25. It’s not just the size of the deficit but how much it matters. Not everyone will think it’s the primary issue that influences how they’ll vote.

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  26. Company cars, Bupa, share options, profit-sharing, discounts on what your company sells… more things you don’t tend to get in the public sector… and PAYE for most means no creative accounting to reduce tax.

    You might get the promise of a decent pension though, which they then proceed to trash for you down the line… maybe you’ll get real lucky and get privatised, and lose the public sector benefits you thought you’d get but are now also behind the curve on the private sector thing…

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  27. R and D and Roger H,
    Thanks for the response .Are we hiding here from yet another of these
    Interminable Scottish polls?Dont answer not politically correct .

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  28. “It’s not just the size of the deficit but how much it matters. Not everyone will think it’s the primary issue that influences how they’ll vote.”

    ————

    What you don’t often see mentioned, it is also what is perceived as the cause of it, like, if they think immigration has a significant part to play in the deficit, maybe they’ll vote UKip…

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  29. Having worked in the private sector most of my life (DB pension based on 1/54 of my salary and bonuses, 1/45 when I became a director) I worked for the last 6 years in (what was not technically but was in effect) a quango.
    No DB schemes there but a reasonable DC deal. Then I merged my quango with another and left after a year. Turns out the pension contributions made my employer in the last year are forfeit so i will get 2/3rds of naff all pension :(

    It’s most certainly my experience that you are far more handsomely paid in the private sector and, whilst DB schemes are disappearing – this is largely because they make no business sense: anybody under 50 just looks at the top line of the salary (and of course the car) – this is more than compensated by other things.

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  30. Colin

    I am not sure what you think your figures prove but they certainly don’t disprove what I wrote. I am not disputing that defined benefit scheme membership in the private sector has declined during the times you mention. However, this does not mean that many of the former private sector pensioners who have retired over the last fifteen years, and had access during their working lives to occupational pension, would not have access to at least some defined benefit provision. They will have stared working in mid-1950s when, if occupational provision was available, it was mainly defined benefit. PS A source for your stats would be good

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  31. NFR

    ONS
    Pension Trends – Chapter 7: Private
    Pension Scheme Membership, 2013
    Edition

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  32. Colin

    Thanks for the source!

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