Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. A rather more typical six point Labour lead after a three pointer yesterday.


295 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%”

1 4 5 6
  1. The latest YG polls seems to be a bit of an odd sample. Just does not look like it fits with the standard pattern. 13% of 2010 Lib Dems now voting UKIP. This is about double the normal sample.

    I think the polls are being affected by the upcoming EU and local council elections. People can sometimes change their votes at these elections and then return to the party of habit at a general elections.

  2. EU polling average April (March):

    Con 23% (-1), Lab 31% (+1), LD 9% (-1), Ukip 28 (+4), Grn 3.5% (-1.5).

  3. @RAF (I think)

    In Italian cities it is common practice to park the car in gear but with the hand break off, thus allowing other cars entering the space in front or behind to manufacture a bit of extra space if necessary. It is usually done with such delicacy that there is no risk of any damage being done. I continue to use this practice myself, even though I’ve been back in the UK now for many years…..

  4. @RAF (I think)

    In Italian cities it is common practice to park the car in gear but with the hand break off, thus allowing other cars entering the space in front or behind to manufacture a bit of extra space if necessary. It is usually done with such delicacy that there is no risk of any damage being done. I continue to use this practice myself, even though I’ve been back in the UK now for many years…..

  5. I will be corrected by those who are more adept than I, but this latest YouGuv poll seems to have produced some strange figures in Scotland. Not only is SNP ahead of Labour (common in Populus, but then……) albeit by only one point, but the LibDems are high on 16%, which would have been around their 2010 % for Scotland.
    Could someone with a brain/computer programme work out what this means in terms of Scottish seats? I suspect that Labour may lose on or two to SNP, but also that Mundell may be in trouble.

    Sorry about my previous comment being put on twice. I’ve no idea how that happened.

  6. I think Labour ought tio be getting a bit nervous.

    Of the polls since the budget, 4 have been above the mean for the year to date, and 17 have been below. The 35 % is the lowest score of the year.

    Is it an outlier? I am reluctant to discard results that are ‘outliers’ unless there is a strong reason to think something has been miscalculated or wrongly weighted, for example. Just because a result doesn’t neatly fit doesn’t make it wrong.

    Given the context – Labour VI has been falling (when judged across the year to date), Labour 2010 voters have been harder to retain and UKIP have drawn down voters from Labour, I think the 35 % is perfectly reasonable, and therefore attempting to play it down or discard it as an outlier would be an error in my view.

  7. Carfrew

    Morning to you, Not hanging on, and certainly not grimly. Very pleased with the way things are going.

    Colin

    Thanks for your kind thoughts, I won’t know the scan results until the end of the month, but I’m pleased to say I am no longer radioactive. Enjoy your day.

  8. @ TOH

    Hope it will be good news, maybe a day at the allotment is in order.

  9. Bluebob

    Thanks, and yes I am back there today, lots to do and a frost tonight so strawberries to be covered.

  10. “13% of 2010 Lib Dems now voting UKIP. This is about double the normal sample.”

    Not any more. Their recent norm has been in double figures often, if you look at the crossbreaks.

  11. Carfrew

    Exactly, yes thanks this is what I was trying to say.

  12. If you offered Miliband 35% next May he would bite your hand off.

    As the pressure grows on him, not just from us but from the general media as his potential as a PM is scrutinised, that figure will be going down. Firmly believe that Labour will end up at around 31.5-32 come polling day.

  13. Incidentally, it’s worth noting that Labour 35% in this poll is a GB figure, not a UK figure, and thus worse than the 35% they polled in 2005, when Labour were being squeezed from the left over the Iraq war.

    It would seem that, if Labour win (as I expect them to) it will be because the Tories and the LDs are unpopular, not because Labour are popular. This actually isn’t that surprising for a party that will have only been out of office for a while, and the idea that Labour needed to be polling 45% or whatever because that’s what the Tories were polling at in 2008 was always a bit silly.

  14. John B,

    You often get weird sub-samples from Scotland, e.g. there was one recently with the Tories level-pegging with Labour. The margin of error is very big when you have samples that small.

  15. Pressman,

    I expect Labour’s VI to fall, but not that far. They’re averaging about 36% right now; I expect them to be closer to 34% come election day.

    A result of 34-31-9 would not be surprising for me. I expect the Tories to shed support to UKIP over the next 13 months (especially during the campaign) and Labour to end up with a majority of 15-30 seats.

  16. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Morning to you, Not hanging on, and certainly not grimly. Very pleased with the way things are going.”

    ———–

    Lol, ok Howard… hope the scans are ok… my partner had some recently that thankfully turned out ok but the waiting wasn’t much cop. Good luck with the strawbs… I remember my parents battling with them… scarecrows, tin foil strips, allsorts to keep feathered friends from snaffling them all. Didn’t stop my friends and I snaffling them though…

  17. TOH

    Fingers crossed for you.

  18. @ TOH

    “lots to do and a frost tonight so strawberries to be covered.”

    I do not cover mine, will a frost damage them?

    On the most recent poll, very happy with that, even though Cons need more.

  19. @RHuckle

    “The latest YG polls seems to be a bit of an odd sample. Just does not look like it fits with the standard pattern. 13% of 2010 Lib Dems now voting UKIP. This is about double the normal sample.”

    Probably MOE around the mean of 36/32/9 which is the current UKPR rolling average. Commenting specifically on this latest poll as if it reveals stunning secrets is probably a little silly, although to be expected in some quarters, especially when sampling error more than likely explains its departure from the mean. If it is sampling error, then to delve yet deeper into sub-samples is to further compound the nonsense. Far better to concentrate on the rolling average, unless of course, this latest YouGov is a harbinger of a run of similar polls. If so, then we might have a trend worth noting. Until then, however, we’re just bobbing around the mean of a 4-5% Labour lead and nothing much of note is really happening, despite the predictable noises off stage.

    That said, there is a bigger picture being painted by the totality of the polls, and one that’s particularly struck me of late, and that is how atrociously the three mainstream parties are doing. Almost a quarter of the electorate are now shunning all three of them, and when we say “electorate” as measured in these polls, that’s the 60-65% who are likely to turn out. If you assume something like 35% of the UK adult population won’t vote at all in May 2015, a pretty safe assumption based on the last three elections, then the three main parties will be obtaining frighteningly small percentages of those eligible to vote. 20-24% maybe for the winning party? Certainly less than one in four of those eligible to vote.

    Extraordinary stuff when considered in the cool light of day and something that tends to be overlooked in the now almost archaic “who’s up, who’s down” Tory v Labour Punch and Judy show. It’s starting to resemble one of those hoary old end of pier acts, sadly playing itself out in front of dwindling audiences. In the case of the end of pier show, kept going by sentiment and nostalgia, in the case of the two-party slugfest, kept artificially alive by an outdated electoral system.

    It’s almost all over really when you look at these polls. 36 plays 32 in a spellbinding relegation battle!

  20. @ Carfrew

    Takes me back to my scrumping days. :)

  21. Bill

    I don’t see it that way – we will be repeating the mantra ‘vote UKIP get Miliband’ day after day and I will wager that that will force many who have been saying they will vote UKIP, and will vote UKIP at the Euros next month, to give Cameron another go next May.

    Whether that will be enough to get the Tory share up to the 38% that will be needed, I personally doubt but there are plenty who believe it can be done. I will be astonished if the Tories do not win the popular vote and very surprised if they are not the largest party.

  22. @ Crossbat

    Who would a lower turn out favour?

  23. Bill Patrick

    The Scottish subsample is very interesting, although no credence can be placed on extensive anslysis od small figures.

    Putting 30 – 29 – 19 – 16 into Electoral Calculus, we get:

    SNP 15 (+9)
    Lab 30 (-11)
    Con 2 (+1)
    Lib 12 (+1)

    The most interesting seat would be Aberdeen South, potentially even closer than Inverness 1992. The Liberals would win, displacing Labour who would slip to fourth place, just over 1% behind the winners!

  24. “It would seem that, if Labour win (as I expect them to) it will be because the Tories and the LDs are unpopular, not because Labour are popular”

    Surely that is how every Opposition Party wins?

  25. Bill Patrick

    -Sample size of 200 Gives as you say large MOE’s

  26. Paul A,

    No.

    Pressman,

    Maybe.

    Crossbat11,

    The SNP got less than 25% of the electorate’s vote in 2011 and it was considered a great achievement. Not good times for democracy, really.

  27. 2612,

    I have my doubts that 2015 will be a year of triumph for the Scottish Lib Dems!

  28. Crossbat – I agree the winner is going to be the first choice of a derisable proportion of the electorate. Unless you have a vested interest in achieving power by any route that favours your party (i.e. tories/lab) how can this continue to be justified?
    FPTP has created the situation where vast numbers don’t vote because they know that their vote won’t count a jot. Only in a few marginals is it worth the bother,

  29. @Pressman: “we will be repeating the mantra ‘vote UKIP get Miliband’ day after day and I will wager that that will force many…”

    It won’t force anyone to do anything. The Press doesn’t matter. There’s no evidence that it ever did. Even the publication of the Zinoviev Letter by the Daily Mail before the 1924 election is thought to have had no impact on the outcome. Today Fleet Street has less influence than ever.

    1992: ‘Among readers of pro-Tory tabloids, support for the Conservatives fell by three points during the election campaign, and it also fell by one point among readers of pro-Tory broadsheets. Just as perversely, support for the Tories rose slightly among readers of the pro-Labour Daily Mirror. It also rose among people who did not read any newspaper.’

  30. @RogerH

    Actually I think that the press will have an impact. They will take a minor party that would ordinarily get little or no publicity, and which has no resources to run a large scale campaign, and give them lots and lots of free coverage. Given UKIP’s anti-politics message this is the best possible news. I predict that “Vote UKIP get Miliband” will increase UKIP votes significantly.

  31. 33/35 latest YouGov:

    I did comment yesterday that it appears with the Labour lead falling very sharply,and not only its lead but Labours headline VI is dropping markedly.

    With margin of error +/-3% we could already be in a crossover position with a small Tory lead. As I said “lets wait a few months and see if this trend continues” I could be wrong (not very often that I am on these matters)

    Have a nice Easter everyone.

  32. @ Wayne

    Supporters of the Conservative party would hope you are right.

  33. ToH
    Guess which other spritely old buffer had a scan this week? Yes indeed, Yours Truly , won’t get the results for a while, but the Sun is shining so what the Hell !
    Spinner99
    FPTP is a very blunt weapon, however if the ABT voters use their collective noodles intelligently, then the UKIP could surprise everyone in the East and South and pick up some parliamentary seats . Politics is a dynamic system and if the UKIP ‘win’ the Euro elections they will have momentum behind them.
    I know that Pressman and his chums will be lining up numerous buckets of sh*t to throw at Farage and get the ‘Tory’ vote back behind Cammo, but this ain’t 1992 (and as RogerH points out 1992 wasn’t even 1992 !) .

  34. new thread ahead…

  35. @2612

    Thanks for putting those figures through the mangle. Of course, the poll is only a one-off, and we need to see some more figures before thinking that things are looking that bad for Labour. But what folk south of the Border need to understand is that much of the political commentary here is semi-filtered through Holyrood. I mean two things by that (both of which I have mentioned in previous comments over the past few months):

    1. Much of the political debate in the South (e.g. education, NHS,) has little or no impact here, so presumably little impact on VIs. Labour’s economic policies are still to be clarified, and until they are we won’t know what the Barnett Formula ramifications are likely to be for Holyrood spending figures;

    2. Labour’s leadership in Scotland is weak, because so many of the more capable Labour folk go to Westminster, rather than to Holyrood. Milliband is seen here as rather an uncertain figure who is trying to gain votes in the South by refusing to adopt policies which many on the Left in Scotland would like to see (e.g. a reversal of Tory policies on housing benefit etc.). And if he has announced that he will reverse those policies, that just goes to underline my point – that message has not come across strongly up here.

    The proposed devolution of additional powers in the next year of two will only add to Labour’s conundrum. It needs Scottish votes for Westminster – and will need them even more after the next Boundary Commission changes have been brought into effect – but most of the political discourse coming from Westminster makes little or no sense in the Scottish context.

    and Bill Patrick

    Agreed – The idea that 2015 will see Scottish Lib Dems ‘triumph’ seems laughable, until you start to ask what effect an increased SNP vote might have on Labour. The more marginals there are to play for, the more absurd the outcome may be

  36. Roger H

    The Press can still have an influence in a close election particularly when there is a fear of someone like Miliband winning. This is where parallels with 1992 can be drawn – why was Major able to pull 14 million votes ? More than Thatcher in 1987 and 1983. How was this bland average operator able to win all those votes ? Because of fear of the other fella winning.

  37. @John B

    Pure seat calc, without analysis of likelihood:

    Lab 30 (-11)
    SNP 14 (+8)
    Lib 13 (+2)
    Con 2 (+1)

    Lib have had higher (about this time last year as it happens), but the sample sizes were sub-150. They even had a VI of 24%, but there was a 5% and 8% either side of that. :))

    This sample is 203. Not huge, but far better than sub 150. YG seem to have woken up to getting at least 1000 from their five weekly polls gives a better chance of a more realistic average.

    Not including April 2014, since Nov’11 the SNP have been ahead of Lab 51 times (594 polls, or 8.6%). What is interesting is that in April of 2014 we have had three instances of SNP ahead of Lab. Three in 14 polls which is 21.4%.

    I generally believe that SNP ahead of Lab is statistical noise, but the number of times it happens in a given period might be telling of a narrowing gap, that is difficult to spot within the noise of the Scottish cross-breaks (e.g. the last ten polls – 36, 39, 40, 36, 34, 29, 46, 39, 33, 29). The average of those is 36.1, but arguably the 29s and the 46 are outliers. A seventeen point gap is quite troublesome.

    A quick breakdown of the SNP > Lab polls since Nov’11:

    Nov / Dec ’11 – 7
    2012 – 38
    2013 – 4 (1 x Jun, 2 x Nov, 1 x Dec)
    2014 – 5 (2 x Feb, 3 x Apr…so far)

    There were 21 SNP > Lab polls by 17th April in 2012.

  38. @Statgeek

    Thanks for doing this work. “Statistical noise” it may be, but Labour are still not firing on all cylinders in Scotland. They seem very unsure of their way forward on matters relating to further devolution for Scotland, and I wonder also about their numerical strength when it comes to having people to do the footwork at election time.

    Interesting reading James Robertson’s ‘And the Land Lay Still’ in the section regarding the 1970s and Jim Sillars setting up the Scottish Labour Party. Still some unanswered questions regarding Labour’s UK leadership and its relationship with Scotland, plus the on-going uncertainty as to whether the Scottish Labour Leader (whoever it may be, not just the present one) really leads the whole Scottish party – including the MPs in Westminster – or not.

    To sum up – unless Scottish Labour gets its act together following the NO vote, they may well suffer some losses…..

  39. EWEN LIGHTFOOT

    From one sprightly old buffer to another. Hope all is well, good luck with the scan.

  40. BLUEBOB

    Yes if you have got flowers, otherwise probably not a problem but frost kill the flowers so no strawberries.

    Colin, Carfrew

    Thanks for your good wishes.

  41. @Pressman: “How was this bland average operator able to win all those votes ? Because of fear of the other fella winning.”

    There were lots of individual reasons but the expert analysis suggests that the Press coverage wasn’t one of them.

  42. “Note that ‘worthies’ is an adjective being used as a noun. Just keeping up with the times.”

    ————-

    It’s normal to use adjectives as nouns, just as it is normal to use nouns as advectives.

    E.g. it is normal to talk of the poor and the sick.

    It’s efficient. Instead of constantly having to say “things which are fundamental”, you just say “fundamentals”.

    People modify and develop language all the time to useful effect… e.g. “polldrums”.

    Btw, the reason you couldn’t always tell if someone was correctly using affect or effect is because one can construct phrases where both are valid, though they may mean slightly different things. Which is obviously a disaster if one seeks to judge others, “OMG… are they wrong or not??? Can I tell them off or not!!??!” so I can see why it troubled you, though it is mild amusement for peeps like me.

    Let’s take an example from your own posts… where you wrote: “…not touching your precious plant and only affecting (note spelling) the dratted weed.”

    You can in principle also write “effecting the dratted weed”… as in, making the weed dratted. Obviously it depends on context, but if it is possible to drat a weed, then you can effect a dratting of the weed.

    I knew passing the Oxford Use of English exam would come in handy one day…

    (This message has been brought to you by the Society for Rehabilitating Compulsive Grammar freaks!!)

  43. oops, wrong thread…

  44. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Colin, Carfrew

    Thanks for your good wishes.”

    ———-

    No probs Howard, we need our board mainstays in fine fettle!!…

  45. Pressman.

    The 1992 election was expected to be close (I believe the most likely outcome was thought to be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party), and that provoked a high turnout. By contrast, in 2001 it was a foregone conclusion that there would be another Labour landslide, and the turnout was the lowest in living memory.

    1992 is always seen as a great victory for the Tories, but they did lose 40 seats – not something they can afford to do next year if they want to stay in power.

1 4 5 6