Tonight we have the new monthly ICM poll for the Guardian. Topline figures are CON 32%(-3), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 11%(+2).

More intriguing are the European voting intentions in the same poll – other recent European polls have been showing Labour and UKIP in a battle for first place and the Conservatives off in third place. In contrast ICM are still showing UKIP third, and the Lib Dems now equal with the Greens on a measly 6 percent – CON 25%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 20%(nc), GREEN 6%(-1).

Why ICM are showing a lower level of European support for UKIP than other pollsters is unclear – there is no obvious methodological reason. ICM weight their European voting intention by likelihood to vote which tends to help UKIP and they include UKIP and the Greens in their European election prompt, so it shouldn’t be a question wording issue. I can only assume it is something to do with the ongoing contrast between the levels of UKIP support recorded in telephone and online polls.

As well as the monthly ICM poll, we also had a YouGov London poll in today’s Evening Standard – tabs here. London voting intentions at a general election stand at CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, a swing of three points from Con to Lab, so actually marginally better for the Tories than in GB polls. In European voting intentions the figures are CON 25%, LAB 33%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 24% – so UKIP and the Conservatives fighting for second place behind Labour, a good performance for UKIP in what tends to be a weaker area for them. Finally in Borough elections voting intentions are CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9% – this reflects a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab since 2010, so would probably be seen as a fairly good performance for the Tories if it was repeated in May. Note the interesting patterns of split votes – there are a lot (18%) of current Conservative voters who would give UKIP their vote in the European elections, but there are also a chunk (12%) of current UKIP voters who would give the Conservatives their vote in the local elections.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll had voting intentions of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Tabs here.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy is also out tonight. Topline figures there are CON 30%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1).


401 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 11”

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  1. JamesBarn
    “Since we joined the “Common Market” social attitudes have changed dramatically, It used to be very difficult to get a Mortgage and often required one to save regular amounts for a couple of years before you were even considered. Credit was sneered at as you were expected to save up for the things you wanted or go without them altogether.

    I look forward to reading your evidence that the UK membership of the (then) EEC since 1973 was the origin of a loosening of credit here.

  2. @CL45

    I’m surprised you didn’t notice the suspiciously high LD rating in the London Borough poll but thanks for pointing out that it was there (I hadn’t noticed it!)

    What I don’t understand is that according to the tables, Lab:
    – Have better retention of 2010 voters than Con (81% vs 76%)
    – Have carried away a larger chunk of the LD carcass than Con (25% vs 20%)
    – Despite that the swing is apparently 2.5% Lab> Con

    And now I’ve reread it and see the swing was Con to Lab so I understand it now.
    I could abandon the post but I am enjoying the image of the Lab lion carrying off a large chunk of LD Wildebeest.

  3. Howard

    Your criticism of my using a mere anecdote is perfectly fair and I accept your admonition! However, I am certain that all my work colleagues nationally at the lower grades of the civil service have had no pay rise in the last 3 years and below inflation awards for the past 8 years at least – perhaps longer. This cannot go on indefinately, and I know, shockingly, of two civil servant colleagues in their mid-thirties who have families, who have had to resort to local food banks within the past 6 months. That is a disgrace! Again, anecdote it may be, but real life situations where public servants are forced to accept charity because the state that employs them pays them too little!

  4. “I look forward to reading your evidence that the UK membership of the (then) EEC since 1973 was the origin of a loosening of credit here.”

    Howard, there’s a definite connection between the last time Arse won the league and most “bad things”.

    Its pretty obvious I would have thought.

  5. @JAMESBARN (8.04)

    ” Today many parents will not get the school of their choice for their child ”

    On the BBC news at 6.00 pm a person representing the Local Government Authorities advised that the problem with school shortages is that local authorities are not able to build primary schools. Government has mandated that new schools must be academies or free schools. I was unaware of this [snip].

  6. James Barn,
    A very interesting post.

  7. chrislane1945

    Those Borough Election polling results look dire for Ed M.

    I assume you’re referring to the YouGov/Evening Standard one

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n4ojuqo0a6/YG-Archive-140411-Eveningstandard-London.pdf

    which gave overall percentages for London of:

    Con 34% (32.0)

    Lab 40% (32.6)

    L/D 12% (22.0)

    UKIP 9% (All others 17.0%)

    Green 3%

    BNP 1%

    Other 1%

    Given that Labour actually did very well in London in 2010 winning the usual swing councils like Ealing and Enfield, there’s probably not much more they could be expected to gain – Croydon plus Merton and Redbridge from NOC. So if that is ‘dire’ I suspect Ed will be happy enough to be dire – though no doubt there will be those calling for immediate resignation if Labour fails to win every seat in Chelsea.

  8. Percentages in brackets above are Party percentage across all the London boroughs in 2010 from:

    http://data.london.gov.uk/documents/London-Borough-Council-Elections-2010.pdf#page=13

    One technical point to make is that it’s not clear from YouGov’s tables if these are the percentages before or after adjustment for likelihood to vote (and how such adjustment was made if it was). If it is not there is an interesting pattern with LTV=10 between the Parties:

    Con 57%

    Lab 54%

    L/D 60%

    UKIP 78%

    The gap between Lab and Con is surprisingly close, especially for somewhere like London where there are a lot of safe Labour wards. Normally Lib Dems have the worst LTV, so there may be some hope there. The high turnout on a general election day in 2010 meant they lost some seats, so unlike Labour they are starting from a poorer base than people think and so losses may be less dramatic than expected.

  9. London Borough Elections

    If memory serves me correctly from my Area Agent days most of the seats won by LDs in London were in heavily “community politics” worked wards. This is unlike the sweeping gains made by LDs in rural counties where natural second places took them to victory with only “token community politics effort” when the Conservatives were unpopular, in which type of ward they have suffered heavy losses in since 2010. I believe in London the LDs will be much more resilient as there were few “natural” victories open to them historically as almost all wards had to be worked-up from scratch. It will be interesting to see how resilient LDs are in London wards, as this may give us an indication of how resilient LD sitting MPs will be, as for the most part they are in well worked-up constituencies.
    We shall have to wait and see!

  10. R and D
    Well, we’ve had the sun, the birds, the promising outlook for amateur vegetable growers and I don’t doubt that the prospects for one’s fave football team will be hugely influential.

    I suspect if i were a squaddie in the Ukrainian army in Donetsk, i might just have a slightly more nervous outlook on political developments. It’s quite clear to me that the pro-Russian ‘protesters’ there are to be admired, being so ill-equipped with having clearly nothing but their bare fists to achieve their aims, compared to the young people who gave their lives in Kiev, armed with those menacing tin shields against the tyrant’s sharpshooters. (Still, he’s safe with his millions in Russia now.)

  11. Changing the subject, why are all leather goods advertised as “genuine” leather?

    If its not bleedin’ genuine then its not leather at all is it?

    Tautology and bolloc*s conflated.

  12. Jim jam and Guymonde

    Two excellent surreal images from youse, Demons being exercised and the LD wilderbeest being munched according to percentages. CL seems to have been soundly told off, and to celebrate I reckon we might see a 8 point Lab lead tonight. We live in hope.

  13. Nobody ever advertises “genuine plastic” do they?

  14. We need to make Ed Balls Chancellor just so he’ll have a driver. The man’s a menace on the roads:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/16/ed-balls-prosecution-hitting-parked-car-shadow-chancellor

  15. @ Jim Jam

    ‘I generally agree with most of what you say. But in the 1980s TB was also in favour of scrapping Britain’s nuclear deterrent. He moved more than Kinnock did. Why was his conversion seen as more genuine?’

    Because he didn’t do it in public ie by the time Blair became a figure that registered on the voter’s consciousness he had already moved to the centrist positions. Kinnock had been a high profile leftie who all of a sudden wanted people to believe he was a centrist. They either ddidn’t believe he had moved or thought him unprincipled

  16. yes exactly NFR.

  17. If ole god hadn’t wanted Arsene Wenger to get Arsenal into the Champions League for the 93rd consecutive season then he wouldn’t have allowed Crystal Palace to win at Everton.

  18. It’s no good, R and D, I have to draw back your attention from footy to those brave ‘protesters’ in Donetsk. I wonder where all those uniforms and weapons suddenly appeared from? I can’t imagine myself.

    I think politicians here are pondering an ‘initiative’ that won’t get them into hot water but that sounds decisive.

  19. So Austin Mitchell will retire at the next GE.

    Here is the result from 2010:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDTTJ1eFNtVFc2SzQ/edit?usp=sharing

    I bet UKIP really fancy a go there….

  20. In Holland, the Dutch cabinet is sending a frigate, F16s and another ship to the ‘Nato’ defence area surrounding Ukraine. What are we doing?

  21. Labour opens up six-point lead in YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sun. Lab 39, Con 33, UKIP 11, LD 9.

  22. Howard

    Not a lot but not sure what we can do.

  23. CATMANUEFF.
    Good Evening to you/
    In my Oxford Labour Days, I used to stay up all night watching those good old by election specials.
    Austin Mitchell did well at Grimsby, with a swing against Labour of about 7%.
    However the disastrous Ashfield result came through, which was upsetting for Roy Hattersley who represented the Labour Party on the BBC.
    The late Vincent Hannah was at Ashfield
    Memories

  24. Actually my inverted commas should have been around ‘defence’ and not NATO. I understand that our PM is in Spain, not that is relevant in this day and age of comms.

  25. I believe the man who won Ashfield for the Cons then went on to his safe seat at Beaconsfield, in the March 1983 by election, with the losing Labour candidate being the man who would one day win three GE’s for Labour, before being shoved out.

  26. ‘Labour opens up six-point lead in YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sun. Lab 39, Con 33, UKIP 11, LD 9’.

    How much longer can the polls continue to defy gravity? I am still betting on a significant shift before the GE pretty much on the grounds outlined by PK in the Guardian – economic competence and the EM leadership problem.

  27. Spearmint
    ‘The man’s a menace on the roads’

    Hyperbole much. Read the morning report – it says he is ‘facing a Police investigation’ By this evening, the Graun had changed the exact same article to ‘faces Police prosecution’ ! It’s clickbait.

    Wonder why the LD supporting paper might be making hay with a slight knock in a car park……

  28. NEWFORESTRADICAL………..Don’t worry, the message will soon get through, you have to remember, we are dealing with largely unsophisticated people, perhaps a little slow on the uptake, but eventually reality dawns. :-)

  29. @ChrisLane1945

    Given Labour will lose their incumbency bonus, the Conservatives were 714 votes behind and the seat is in East Yorkshire, it looks like a good UKIP target for sure.

    I have some memories of Austin as a TV Journalist (just…)

    Regrettably, politics seems to be losing it’s characters very fast. Soon we will be left ex -SPADs, and Ex Lawyers.

  30. Ken – not a nice way to talk about fellow posters!

    good job the Electorate are more sophisticated.

  31. 39 is the best Labour score in a while. Since I can’t see any particular reason for that unless Ed Balls crashed his car into the vehicle of a prolific murderer, seems like MOE.

  32. Nothing to do with his views, I will not miss Mr Austin Mitchell at all.

  33. Jim JAm
    I thought Ken *was* referring to the electorate, in which opinion I share, but possibly with a different view of the outcome.

  34. howard

    Me neither.

  35. @MrNameless

    The VI CUSUM chart has gone to small random up and down variation.

    I would say it looks like everything has reverted the average figures for the year to date, with nothing special moving now.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDM2FRM0c5U202Zzg/edit?usp=sharing

  36. HOWARD………Up-thread, a poster referred to a woman not ever voting Tory because they took her free school milk away when she was five. I rest my case. :-)

  37. He was Howard – I was trying to be ironic.

  38. I did hear the following line the other week – “I’m a socialist, so I’ll be voting UKIP”. Words fail me.

  39. Mr N – actually there is a perverse logic in believing that the EU is fundamentally a capitalist club so vote UKIP as a first step to the UK leaving so we can establish our own Utopia.

  40. “HOWARD………Up-thread, a poster referred to a woman not ever voting Tory because they took her free school milk away when she was five. I rest my case. ”

    Hear hear Ken: a reason is not necessary, just as you correctly imply.

  41. @NewForestRadical

    “How much longer can the polls continue to defy gravity?I am still betting on a significant shift before the GE pretty much on the grounds outlined by PK in the Guardian – economic competence and the EM leadership problem.”

    I think you may be letting frustration get the better of you. Wanting polls to tell a different story doesn’t mean that they inevitably will. I spent most of the 80s and 90s wondering when the great British public would “see sense”. They never did.

    Too early to tell, but I wonder if the Tories are manufacturing that very rare thing; a voteless recovery.

  42. Still in automod, but I’ll post anyway in the hope that I can be weaned off.

    I think we are at a critical polling point now. Today’s news on wages is good on paper, but not so good in practical terms. The main media outlets have largely failed to address the statistical issues. Actual wage growth averages 1.4%, with bonuses making up the difference, heavily skewed to certain sectors.

    More importantly, these figures don’t include self employed – around 4m people, and the big growth area at present. Evidence suggests much of this growth is in parallel with underemployment.

    Then of course, we also know that the inflation index employed doesn’t cover many relevant household costs.

    So then the polling question. Essentially it boils down to whether people will believe to reports, or their own experience. How this plays out is going to be critical.

  43. Or even, CB11, for many, a recovery-less recovery.

  44. @bcrombie – “By the rich I also mean those that are sitting in £500 000 houses in London who will be passing on a tax free unearned inheritance to their heirs.”

    Currently you can pick up a two-bed flat in Brent for something like £560,000. Bear in mind there’s no guarrantee that the upstairs neighbours won’t regularly be partying until 3am… if you’re lucky you’ll just have to put up with their TV, washing machine and the general clomping about. Rich? For a quality of life in London you want to be in the super-rich brackett nowadays.

  45. @RosieandDaisie

    That is the problem.

    Also, can someone more economically gifted that me let me know how falling inflation is a sign of a growing economy? Surely if things are going well, everyone has more money to spend and retailers (amongst others) can increase their margins.

  46. Who is influenced by being told other people’s wages are rising? It’s your own experience that counts.

  47. New thread…

  48. Even the ‘affordable’ housing is unaffordable in London:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/apr/14/affordable-housing-key-workers-cost

  49. Chrislane,
    I am afraid your memory is a bit out! The Beaconsfield by election was in May 1982 – at the time of the Falklands war.

  50. MRNAMELESS – A socialist voting UKIP is something I have encountered. Maybe not so silly as it first appears, though the ‘socialists’ are not generally people who follow politics closely.

    I think they believe that UKIP will do things about privatised energy and the railways etc. UKIP play up to that a bit. I don’t think the mass of the electorate believe the mainstream parties will do anything fundamental so some sway towards UKIP with their all things to all people views.

    Plus the EU is a pretty right wing organisation, pushing privatisation across many industries so maybe some would like to get away from its control for that reason. I’d expect that those more on the strong left may think voting UKIP means a referendum, and then leaving so in later years a left wing labour party not bound by EU ideology. Rather optimistic that one though.

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