Tonight we have the new monthly ICM poll for the Guardian. Topline figures are CON 32%(-3), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 11%(+2).

More intriguing are the European voting intentions in the same poll – other recent European polls have been showing Labour and UKIP in a battle for first place and the Conservatives off in third place. In contrast ICM are still showing UKIP third, and the Lib Dems now equal with the Greens on a measly 6 percent – CON 25%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 20%(nc), GREEN 6%(-1).

Why ICM are showing a lower level of European support for UKIP than other pollsters is unclear – there is no obvious methodological reason. ICM weight their European voting intention by likelihood to vote which tends to help UKIP and they include UKIP and the Greens in their European election prompt, so it shouldn’t be a question wording issue. I can only assume it is something to do with the ongoing contrast between the levels of UKIP support recorded in telephone and online polls.

As well as the monthly ICM poll, we also had a YouGov London poll in today’s Evening Standard – tabs here. London voting intentions at a general election stand at CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, a swing of three points from Con to Lab, so actually marginally better for the Tories than in GB polls. In European voting intentions the figures are CON 25%, LAB 33%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 24% – so UKIP and the Conservatives fighting for second place behind Labour, a good performance for UKIP in what tends to be a weaker area for them. Finally in Borough elections voting intentions are CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9% – this reflects a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab since 2010, so would probably be seen as a fairly good performance for the Tories if it was repeated in May. Note the interesting patterns of split votes – there are a lot (18%) of current Conservative voters who would give UKIP their vote in the European elections, but there are also a chunk (12%) of current UKIP voters who would give the Conservatives their vote in the local elections.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll had voting intentions of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Tabs here.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy is also out tonight. Topline figures there are CON 30%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1).


401 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 11”

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  1. @COLIN

    “A good momentum behind unemployment trend now -and pay averages.

    More to add to PK’s “Fundamentals”.”

    ———-

    The problem with PK’s fundamentals, is that some of them aren’t fundamentals, and he didn’t necessarily cover all those that are fundamentals…

  2. @RogerH
    “Which government services that you yourself use do you think should be cut?” It’s not that I want the services cut. Rather, I want them run efficiently.
    Have you tried to get HMRC to correct a mistake recently? Half way (6 months) through my last problem (with my son’s estate) I wrote to the office which had lost the record of my cheque (though they had cashed it) only to get a reply from another office in a different part of the country, which referred me to a third office “which deals with all matters relating to bereavements” – it didn’t.
    Other departments are perhaps not so bad, but by no means perfect. I would not like to be without the NHS medical services, but their admin is patchy to say the least.
    If you want to relate that to polling, it illustrates the need to ask the right questions before basing policy on the answers.

    [As ever, can I remind people this is NOT a site for debating each other’s political views – AW]

  3. @Jim Jam

    I’ve never seen any hard evidence at all that the Tories’ strategy was successful is peeling affluent voters away from Labour. The swing in London & the greater South East was perfectly in line with the English average that election. What happened that election was that the polls were simply wrong, and the Tories were probably 7% ahead for the entire duration of the campaign.

    A great deal of political superstition sprung up from that election. Probably my favourite is a conversation Biggie T himself recalled with a newly self-employer bloke in Middlesbrough, who said he used to vote Labour but was now a businessman and was voting Tory. Apparently Blair ‘knew’ on the spot that Labour would lose.

    Most of the political mythology from 1992 is completely baseless and spooked Labour for years to come, leading them to make ideological compromises they didn’t need to make.

  4. Can one have a fundamental – just one?

  5. @ BCrombie & Spearmint

    “How are these people doing economically at the moment?”

    Just keeping our heads above water, thanks! Typical= lower grade civil servant /Public sector worker on pay freeze or lower than inflation award over past 8 years! No feeling of boom here! It’s tight on the weekly budget, although we can see its getting a bit easier for others than two years ago, but it feels a bit galling for us to be told continuously that its so much better – it doesn’t feel it. Plus, lots of nasty changes at work over past five years thanks to thinning out of manning levels, stress levels up, vindictive new appraisal systems etc. etc…..

  6. tony dean

    yep. People who seem unlikely to vote Tory in 2015:

    Public sector workers (and relatives thereof)
    Benefit claimants including disabled
    The vast majority of first second or third generation immigrants
    Students
    Many parents of students
    Scotland

  7. @HOWARD

    “Can one have a fundamental – just one?”

    ———

    In this instance, probably, yeah… (but it kinda tells you everything and nothing…)

  8. Tony Dean

    My feeling as well from what I experience, see and here

    A VoxPop on 5 Live earlier on (I know, I know…anecdotes alert….) had everyone saying that they had seen no pay rises and that any perception of improvement was for some undefined others and not them. No pay rises and higher cost of living

    As it was the BBC it was then followed by the presenter gushing about how everything is so positive…..

    The numbers look slightly better than they did but the economy is still in dire straits and I often look back at Osborne’s 2010 predictions and compare them to the reality when I hear people saying how great everything is….

  9. DS – I campaigned in 92 and agree that simpley the polls were wrong although a hung parliament was a possibility.

    It was the baggage from Kinnocks past that was too much for some who were not exactly enamoured with the cons but turned out cos they did not quite trust Labour.

    In 97 Con abstensions were a big factor.

    Don’t misunderstand me please.

    A Blair type triangulation strategy will not work this time and I think in terms of mood music ED is getting it about right at the momemt.

  10. So, if real terms wage growth continues, does anybody think this will gradually affect the polls? and more importantly, what will Milliband change tack to next?

  11. Carfrew
    Taking these americanisms a bit further, can one have a financial or a deliverable? (I know we can because my American colleagues referred to such, usually as plural nouns, financials, deliverables, when I worked in an American firm). We know we can have an unknown (also a known). Does the distinction between adjectives and nouns have relevance to our discussion about politics or should we just refer to our ‘politicals’?

  12. Rich

    Real terms growth…0.1%??? And I would hazard a guess that most are not getting that…..

    Things are stabilising but at a very low level – in fact stagnating would be a better word.

    Remind me again how the deficit and overall growth since 2010 is doing against Osborne’s predictions in 2010?

  13. So, if real terms wage growth continues, does anybody think this will gradually affect the polls?
    Maybe
    …and more importantly, what will Milliband change tack to next? Sharing the proceeds of growth – because public awareness of economic inequality has increased since 2010.

  14. Bill Patrick
    ‘Incidentally, did anyone know that Labour’s vote fell (in both percentage and absolute terms) in every election from 1955 to 1964’

    Largely explained by the fact that in 1955 there were only 110 Liberal candidates compared with 365 in 1964. As a result the Labour – and Tory – votes were artificially high in the 1950s with both being the beneficiaries of second preference Liberal votes from those denied a Liberal to vote for.

  15. CARFREW

    There probably are more-but the ones he chose make sense to me.

    The point is-is he right about their relevance & prospective effect?

  16. BCrombie
    I cite the polls. Although I think ONS is very useful in identifying trends, the polls tell us whether FGF is improving or otherwise. The problem is that in our FPTP system with great social imbalances in geographical areas, one has to try to imagine whether they will feel the same in Maidstone as they do in Manchester.

    In other words, if its great in the former and not great in the latter, Mr Cameron will have made his own supporters happy but will lose the election.

  17. TOH

    Hope youre tests aren’t a cause for concern.

  18. SPEARMINT

    I think there is no danger of “triumphalism”-but you can obviously hope.

  19. What I would like to know is WHO is getting the pay rises? I personally know of nobody who has had any pay rise in certainly the last 3 years. Perhaps the top earners are skewing “the average”?

    What about the type of voter, who maybe is somebody who had a £30,000 a year job in 2010, lost it, took an £18,000 a year job 12 months later after a year out of work, and has just had a pay rise on that? Are they going to vote Tory?

    There are so many imponderables! I am still agog at how little impact the “economic recovery” is having on moving the polls. I suspect there must be lots of big losers since 2010 who find that things are just easing a bit – but perhaps not enough to get them back to voting Conservative as they are still annoyed?

  20. This is still very funny, but would be really controversial now, but it wasn’t at the time.

    Rowan Atkinson -Conservative party conference

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sg-4ATrE8n0

  21. Just walked in the door from a day at the allotment, sun was out and birds were singing, a real feel good factor returning.

  22. I think there’s a great risk of trying to use wages returning to slightly above inflation to be good news. Particularly since it looks like the wage increases come from the top of the wage scale.

    Again, this is probably occurring too late for the Conservatives to make best use of it. And it is yet to have a positive effect in the back-pockets of those who the Conservatives need to vote for them.

    “Allright for some” is the narrative the Conservatives need to avoid, and particularly any signs that the already wealthy were benefiting most from their policies.

  23. Good Evening All.
    BLUE BOB: Beautiful here.

    Did I read Anthony’s analysis in a previous thread, saying that there was normally a swing back to the incumbent party in Government?
    There was some derision expressed about this view some time ago, when posited by a less qualified member here.

    Those Borough Election polling results look dire for Ed M.

  24. interesting part of a piece by john humphrys on the yougov site:
    “So, unsurprisingly, government ministers were quick to celebrate the news. But they were being a touch cautious in what they claimed. It was presented as a corner being turned rather than a problem that has been dealt with: all done and dusted. A closer look at the statistics explains why.

    The figure of 1.7% for the average rise in earnings includes bonuses. But 40% of bonuses are paid to only 4% of workers (and we know where most of them live). So most workers are getting a much less good deal. If you strip out bonuses from the calculation, average earnings rose over the period by only 1.4% and THAT is less than the rate of inflation. Most people, therefore, are still being squeezed.”

  25. Tony Dean
    “I personally know of nobody who has had any pay rise in certainly the last 3 years. ”
    You may have spent a long time in politics but anecdote does not cut it here.

  26. Of course in relation to the much more established RPI wages still lag inflation by nearly 1%. Why is the media colluding with the Government in suppressing the RP!?

  27. BlueBob
    Another example of your intuitive expertise?

    Can we get back to polling analysis?

    (and I don’t care about the weather that any of you are experiencing, Do you want to know about mine? Of course not).

  28. Howard

    Public sector workers are a pretty big cohort….more than anecdote

    To be fair to Tony I know no-one who has had a pay rise >inflation in the last 3 years.

    Does anyone know someone who has had a pay rise >inflation, and if so what field are they in?

  29. BlueBob

    the birds don’t have a vote.

    ChrisLane 1945

    You must have predicted every possible 2015 result scenario in my time here so I s’pose you’re pretty much certain to be correct.

    [Unless ole Cleggy wind outright of course.]

  30. “Does anyone know someone who has had a pay rise >inflation, and if so what field are they in?”

    I am in the retirement field and the grazing and work load is jolly good. Wish I’d thought of it earlier – say when I was 16 or so.

  31. BCROMBIE

    I think you’ve summed it up pretty well – the vast majority of
    LD-Lab switchers ( the most important element in deciding the next GE ) fall into the category of those with still falling living standards – in a way they may be even more repelled by the Tories’ triumphalism over how wonderful things are going.

  32. @Bcrombie

    I don’t know anybody who has had a pay rise > inflation in the last 3 years but I know plenty who have moved from employment to ‘self – employment’ (myself included).

    Mark you I decided to go on a diet 4 years ago. In the meantime I have put on 4 stone. I weighed my self today and found I had lost a pound. It feels so great being slim.

  33. ” I decided to go on a diet 4 years ago. In the meantime I have put on 4 stone. I weighed my self today and found I had lost a pound. It feels so great being slim.”

    Have you considered a career as a spin doctor Guy?

  34. @JIM JAM: “DS – I campaigned in 92 and agree that simpley the polls were wrong although a hung parliament was a possibility.

    “It was the baggage from Kinnocks past that was too much for some who were not exactly enamoured with the cons but turned out cos they did not quite trust Labour.”

    How did Labour lose in ’92?: The most authoritative study…

    ‘Mr Major’s appeal as leader, compared with Mr Kinnock’s, was probably worth no more than one percentage point to the Tory share of the vote.’

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/exclusive-how-did-labour-lose-in-92-the-most-authoritative-study-of-the-last-general-election-is-published-tomorrow-here-its-authors-present-their-conclusions-and-explode-the-myths-about-the-greatest-upset-since-1945-1439286.html

  35. @BCROMBIE (6.32)

    “Does anyone know someone who has had a pay rise >inflation,”

    Yes, significantly greater.

    “and if so what field are they in?”

    Surprise, surprise – banking

  36. @CL1945

    Re: London Borough Council Elections.

    As I keep pointing out, Labour did very well in these elections in 2010. It’s wrong therefore to try to draw conclusions from the Labour swing in these areas in 2015, viz a viz the next GE.

  37. Graham,

    I agree. I’d add that the Liberals proved to be very effective in that period.

    In other words, Labour did a poor job in opposition, failing to keep voters from going to third parties.

  38. @ RosieandDaisie

    “the birds don’t have a vote.”

    I do not recall saying they did.

  39. BB”@ RosieandDaisie

    “the birds don’t have a vote.”

    “I do not recall saying they did. ”

    We never said you did say they did.

  40. @ Rosie

    If only I could be as clever as you, maybe one day hey.

  41. @ BlueBob

    Probably not.

  42. RogerMajor

    I did not mean to suggest Kinnock v Major as a leader/pm.

    The Kinnock baggage referred to the journey he took from abstaining on Benn v Healey (I am pretty sure) to accepting markets which mirrored in many ways the journey of the Labour Party.

    There was a sense that he and the LP had not really changed but were saying things to get elected (for example from CND-multi-lateralists accepting Trident) and that once elected he and the party may revert to type.

    It took New Labour going farther than perhaps necessary My view FWIW) to exercise the early ’80s demons.

    EM does not have to do this as even if people think Labour messed up it was not by being anti-the Tories and their friends will summon up the ‘Red Ed’ parody to try and generate sum and who knows they may have some limited success.

    DC was not as successful as TB because he could not convince enough voters that the Tories have moved on from the latter Thatcher years which fairly or not (please no arguments about her) became an albatross for them.

  43. penultimate par messed up

    EM does not have to do this as even if people think Labour messed up it was not by being anti-business so little or no residual fear exists – the Tories and their friends will of c course try to summon up the ‘Red Ed’ parody to try and generate some and who knows they may have limited success.

  44. @Jim Jam

    I generally agree with most of what you say. But in the 1980s TB was also in favour of scrapping Britain’s nuclear deterrent. He moved more than Kinnock did. Why was his conversion seen as more genuine?

    My own view is that as far as Fleet Street were concerned Kinnock’s face and voice, and origins did not fit, whereas Blair fit the bill perfectly.

  45. @COLIN

    “There probably are more-but the ones he chose make sense to me.

    The point is-is he right about their relevance & prospective effect?”

    ————–

    Everything he says is relevant, to be fair. It’s just that he leaves some bits out and muddles up cause and effect in places…

  46. RAF
    You are probably right but electorates vote governments out not new ones in.

    I don’t think personal views change much, but leaders change them publicly to suit the electoral circumstances. Ed is red and that’s all there is to it. I know this because the polemicists tell me – all the time.

  47. “@ Rosie

    If only I could be as clever as you, maybe one day hey ?

    I’d aim for Daisie’s standard first ‘cos she’s oany WON !!!

  48. Are we getting better off? Well the economic lift seems to me to not be based on manufacturing but on consumer spending via credit. I honestly believe that the Housing bubble will give us mega problems in the not too distant future. I read somewhere recently that less than 10% of the population hold £5000 in savings and a lot of families do not even have a week’s wages in hand to fall back on. All it needs is for the Bank on England to be forced to put up interest rates to slow the housing market and repossessions will soar.
    Since we joined the “Common Market” social attitudes have changed dramatically, It used to be very difficult to get a Mortgage and often required one to save regular amounts for a couple of years before you were even considered. Credit was sneered at as you were expected to save up for the things you wanted or go without them altogether.
    Easy credit has put all of the political parties in a dilemma and caused much disquiet among the electorate as services are eroded. This coupled with shortages in housing and school places an open goal for the anti immigration stance that is and will be a defining issue in the 2015 GE. Today many parents will not get the school of their choice for their child but may in some cases see the places they hoped for taken by the children of newcomers. Likewise they may well find out that their hopes of accommodation in social housing suffer the same fate. These undeniable issues will I have no doubt cause considerable upheaval in the polls in some areas. What is more they are issues that our politicians are powerless to address whilst we maintain open borders. These are the issues that resonate with UKIP voters, balance of national budgets or GDP figures are for the most part little more to the majority of the electorate than plitica rhetoric

  49. “My own view is that as far as Fleet Street were concerned Kinnock’s face and voice, and origins did not fit, whereas Blair fit the bill perfectly.”

    It’s not what Fleet Street thought that mattered, though. (I refer you to the link I gave earlier.) There was no one reason why Labour lost – just an assortment of different reasons each making a small difference. There is no evidence that the newspapers were one of them – if anything they had the opposite to intended effect:

    “Among readers of pro-Tory tabloids, support for the Conservatives fell by three points during the election campaign, and it also fell by one point among readers of pro-Tory broadsheets. Just as perversely, support for the Tories rose slightly among readers of the pro-Labour Daily Mirror. It also rose among people who did not read any newspaper.”

  50. Re lack of perception of recovery on an individual basis.

    The GDP & FTSE may have now surpassed their pre-crunch levels, but this is due to significant population growth. Latest figures have GDP per capita still below 2008 levels. The average individual is ~13% poorer than they were 6 years ago, and actually got poorer during 2012/13. Of course, it’s hard enough to get the general public to notice even basic figures such as overall GDP, or accept that crime isn’t skyrocketing all the time……but theoretically there’s plenty of labour hay to be made….

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