Tonight we have the new monthly ICM poll for the Guardian. Topline figures are CON 32%(-3), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 11%(+2).

More intriguing are the European voting intentions in the same poll – other recent European polls have been showing Labour and UKIP in a battle for first place and the Conservatives off in third place. In contrast ICM are still showing UKIP third, and the Lib Dems now equal with the Greens on a measly 6 percent – CON 25%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 20%(nc), GREEN 6%(-1).

Why ICM are showing a lower level of European support for UKIP than other pollsters is unclear – there is no obvious methodological reason. ICM weight their European voting intention by likelihood to vote which tends to help UKIP and they include UKIP and the Greens in their European election prompt, so it shouldn’t be a question wording issue. I can only assume it is something to do with the ongoing contrast between the levels of UKIP support recorded in telephone and online polls.

As well as the monthly ICM poll, we also had a YouGov London poll in today’s Evening Standard – tabs here. London voting intentions at a general election stand at CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, a swing of three points from Con to Lab, so actually marginally better for the Tories than in GB polls. In European voting intentions the figures are CON 25%, LAB 33%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 24% – so UKIP and the Conservatives fighting for second place behind Labour, a good performance for UKIP in what tends to be a weaker area for them. Finally in Borough elections voting intentions are CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9% – this reflects a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab since 2010, so would probably be seen as a fairly good performance for the Tories if it was repeated in May. Note the interesting patterns of split votes – there are a lot (18%) of current Conservative voters who would give UKIP their vote in the European elections, but there are also a chunk (12%) of current UKIP voters who would give the Conservatives their vote in the local elections.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll had voting intentions of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Tabs here.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy is also out tonight. Topline figures there are CON 30%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1).

401 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 11”

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  1. I can’t be first.

    [You are!! Have a biscuit! – AW]

  2. I never got a biscuit when I was first…….favouritism!

    [Okay, backdated biscuit :) – AW]

  3. +2 for Others.

  4. And as I was saying…..

    ‘I don’t know why pollsters bother as UKPR posters above (last thread, last posts) think they are wrong (and in different political directions at the same time).’

  5. Guess which poll will get the most airtime…

  6. I think what this shows is that the Tories may do better in the locals than they would otherwise have done as more Tory inclined voters (Tory/UKIP) will turn out, and a decent percentage of these voters will split their Euro/LA votes.

  7. I would guess these polling figures for the London electorate should come as a serious disappointment to the oligarchs of the London Labour Party.

  8. UKIP I think (as do most bookies) will win the EU election.

    Not sure what the Guardian is doing wrong not to record this.

  9. An what an important election the Euros will be to british voters:-

  10. Be interesting to compare results between those with and without locals to see if UKIP do significantly better in Euro-only places.

  11. May I return to a question I have asked before but did not really get an answer, probably because there isn’t one yet. If Scotland goes independent, will the 50-odd Scottish MPs simply be asked to leave the Palace of Westminster when independence kicks in in 2016, leaving the remaining 600 to carry on for the rest of their term, or will there be a new general election at that point? Andrew Neil the other day asserted there would be a general election, but on what basis does he say that? Does he know something no one else does?

    May I say also that I’m relieved, for the Queen’s sake, that independence would not take effect until 2016, for, if she is still there, she will overtake Queen Victoria to become longest-reigning British monarch in September 2015 and if independence happened before then presumably that achievement would not be technically possible even if Scotland retained her as their head of State.

  12. Voters’ feelings in the polling booths will be more thought out than those given to pollsters. I think this will have an effect on where they put their crosses. With regard to a prime ministers, I suspect that the sitting tenant will have the advantage of incumbency. But which is more likeable as a character? Does Cameron come across as of a different class from the mass of the electorate? Miliband is the more appealing, therefore?

  13. @Jonboy

    Whoever is in charge will make it up as they go along. – and get away with what they can. That’s yer British constitution, that is.

  14. Biscuits should bring Rosie and Daisy running or is it just medals?

    Surely the obvious thing that is wrong with ICM is that Lab will score just one point less in the Euros than in the GE. With a form of PR it seems very likely that at least some Lab supporters will have somewhere else to go.

  15. @RogerH
    That would indeed be interesting. Do please post the results when you’ve worked them out!

  16. @JONBOY: “May I return to a question I have asked before but did not really get an answer…”

    No one yet knows. They’ll probably welcome suggestions, though.

  17. Jonboy

    Andrew Neil knows lots of things that nobody else knows.

    That other people don’t know those things, simply shows that they have no right to exist – and he knows that they actually don’t.

    Not a lot of people know that.

  18. @Jonboy

    My logic, rather than informed fact.

    If Scotland goes independent in 2016, the Westminster Government (Parliament of the United Kingdom) must be dissolved as the make-up of the Parliament and indeed the Union of 1707 (Acts of Parliaments) is void (?).

    This will especially matter if in 2016 the removal of the Scottish MPs changes the balance of the 2015 GE majority / minority / coalition, and I imagine any opposition with something to gain will want a fresh election.

    It’s almost worth voting Yes to see the all the hassle it will cause for politicians on all sides of the UK. :))

  19. “Biscuits should bring Rosie and Daisy running or is it just medals?”

    Orw dad always shares so we’re not bothered.

    Re “oligarchs”: we assume they are only to be found as part of groups one doesn’t like?

    [We are trying to understand the flexibility of the English language. Changing yer wuffing tone and volume seems much simpler to us.]

  20. Should we not be dubious about polls which ask about voting in European elections only after asking first about voting in the general election?

    ICM’s Euro results could be out of kilter because the Euro question came (presumably) immediately after a question in which many of those potential Tory Euro deserters would have just confirmed that they’d be voting Tory in the general election.

    A few days ago Panelbase did the same trick in reverse, asking about voting intention in the referendum, then Europe, the 2016 Holyrood constituency and list (with a reminder about PR), a recall question on 2011 Holyrood actual voting, and then finally about VI at the 2015 general election.

  21. Andrew Neil the other day asserted there would be a general election, but on what basis does he say that?
    On the basis that Labour looks likely to win in 2015 & he’s a Tory.
    Does he know something no one else does?

  22. Phil – as far as I’m aware all the other European polls have done the same, so it probably can’t explain any differences.

    Jonboy – as others have said, the proper answer is no one knows. It would require primary legislation after a YES vote. Different ideas have been floated, nothing has been decided.

  23. Statgeek

    And my take on it, rather than informed fact.

    Most Labour MPs and any residual LDs from Scotland will volunteer to take the whip of whichever is the governing party of rUK if they get to stay in place and draw their expenses and salaries until the next election.

    If the governing party needs them, they will be retained on the basis that not all the details of independence have had “i”s dotted and “”t”s crossed.

    If they’re not needed, then they’ll be told to sod off.

  24. Re: “What happens after a Yes”.

    The important point (which is usually not broought into the discussion of this unanswerable questions) is that there will be a UK GE the May after the fatal day. What happens following Schism will be an issue in that election, and the winner of the election will enact the policy that the electors ahve voted for.

  25. AMBER STAR……….I couldn’t take a man wearing a wig as bad as Neil’s, seriously, it’s such a distraction, a sort of orange Brillo pad. :-)

  26. KEN

    As a golfer, you should be aware that A Neil and D Trump have never been seen together on the same tee.

    With but one wig, they aren’t Better Together.

  27. OLDNAT………..There is a wig watch competition in Viz magazine, a prize for the most, ‘ interesting ‘ syrup photo submitted, Neil’s is known as a, ‘ Weetabix ‘. :-0

  28. Another few polls like this and we could have a Tory falling out before the election, which would mean a worse result at the elections, which would result in an even bigger falling out after the election.

    The challenge for the Tory Party is to hold back if a few more polls come out like these……can they?

  29. Con 33%
    Lab 38%
    Lib 9%
    UKIP 12%


  30. POPULUS…………….The Gold Standard of political polling. :-)

  31. No Sun YG poll yet. Must be a large Labour lead and they will leave it until the morning !

  32. Meanwhile a new Keynesian job creation method emerges, cut down a tree, put it down a mine, repeat until all trees down, all mines full. Remove trees from mines, repeat, until private sector restores sanity. :-)

  33. Comres Poll for Independent:

    CON 30% (-1)
    LAB 36%
    LD 9%
    UKIP 12% (+1)

    Slight downtick for the Cons since pre-budget.

  34. Actually Sun poll is out

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%

  35. Carfrew is AWOL

    I think he’s been watching the storage show on Beeb 2.

    Is he the man who has a lot of Star Wars characters in storage?

    I think we should be told.

  36. @KEN
    “…I couldn’t take a man wearing a wig as bad as Neil’s, seriously, it’s such a distraction, a sort of orange Brillo pad. :-)…”

    I’m receding, so some years ago I looked into it (wigs, not Neil’s hair).

    * Wigs (hair replacement systems, et al) can work but you need quite a bit of disposable income and time to maintain them (eg Elton John or Gary Numan’s hair replacement, or Hugh Laurie’s wig in “House”).
    * Flaps (Fleming/Meyer flaps, et al) give dramatic results but the scars are unsightly, the possible side effects (necrosis) are dramatic, and the hair doesn’t necessarily move the way you want it to (eg Donald Trump)
    * Hair transplants (FUE, FUT) work much better (eg Rob Brydon, James Nesbit, Wayne Rooney) but you have to bear in mind it doesn’t stop recession in the non-transplanted areas.

    You really don’t want to know about the other options (scalp expansion!)

    As for Andrew Neil, it looks like a transplant coupled with a spray-on thickener (Mane, Toppik, whatever). It definitely *isn’t* a wig (at least, not at the front).

  37. Interesting that the London swing to Labour is so small in this poll. It is perhaps indicative of the fact that London is booming compared to the rest of the UK and the “feel good factor” is much greater in the capital than elsewhere?

    Spearmint – I answered your question on the last thread after this new thread was begun, as that seemed a more appropriate place for it.

  38. MARTYN………..Too much information ! :-)

  39. Phil Haines

    I understand the point you regularly make about the only meaningful question being the one that is asked first.

    On that basis, presumably the demographic questions should be asked subsequent to the only question (for as in Highlander “there can be only one” in any poll).

    However, since those demographic questions might be influenced by the first question asked, each of them should be asked in separate polls.

    That would make polling somewhat ludicrously expensive and unmanageable.

    What have you got against Anthony that you want to put him out of a job?

  40. GUYMONDE……….I second that illusion. :-)

  41. Wigs are really silly-because everyone knows.

    Wigs are for people with self importance malfunctions.
    Balding is for normal people.

  42. The moment my hair starts to recede (hopefully never but the way my uncle’s going I don’t have much hope) it’s all coming off. I’d rather go full Hague than keep trying to hide it.

  43. The short answer to Jonboy’s question is, as others have hinted “The British Constitution is what happens”. In other words something will be bodged up.

    The longer explanation for this is that because there is no formal constitution, only amendable by a different procedure for other laws, a set of laws can be passed that will finish the terms of MPs for Scottish seats on a particular date. No new election will be necessary because all the other past legislation that might cause problems that Statgeek refers to can also be amended at the same time.

    There is no need for a new election and indeed, because now fixed term parliaments are written into UK law, there would need to be new law or more bodging to call one. It’s true that the resultant make-up of the House of Commons might mean that the government would like a new election – in which case there are various rather inelegant ways to force one. But there is no need to have another till 2020.

    As far as HM’s worrying about her place in the Guinness Book of Records, the proposed date for Scottish independence is 24 March 2016, so she should have overtaken her great-great grandmother by then. But she probably still would even if it was before because the name of the country will most likely be changed to something along the likes of “The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland”, so she will still be monarch of the UK (as well as Scotland). If you’re going to insist on going by the full title she will never beat Victoria because the latter was Queen of the UK of Great Britain and Ireland while Her Maj only has only ever had Northern Ireland in her title.

  44. @ Statgeek
    ‘Con 33%
    Lab 38%
    Lib 9%
    UKIP 12%
    Polldrums?’ this one looks a bit like it.

    Polldrums can be defined 3 consecutive months in which none of the four major parties shift their monthly rolling VI on the Wikipedia chart. We have last month entered 9 consecutive months, referred to as pollstipation. Today we can declare that 9 months of polldrums have come to an end. Labour are down a whopping1% and Ukip are up an eye-watering 1%, rejoice in that movement.

  45. The ICM poll on education does not make good reading for Gove as quite a majority show disapproval for his reforms.

  46. The Times reporting a Euro Duckhouse/Moat situation vis a vis Mr. Farage -in the shape of a Grain Store apparently.

  47. @OldNat

    “Andrew Neil knows lots of things that nobody else knows.
    That other people don’t know those things, simply shows that they have no right to exist – and he knows that they actually don’t.
    Not a lot of people know that.”

    Lol and thrice lol.

    So many polls all in one day and so little time to discuss them before they’re superseded by the next batch. An 11% lead for Labour in the Euros looks a bit over-egged to me, certainly in comparison to most of the other polls suggesting a much closer race between Labour, the Tories and UKIP. Anthony skated over the monthly ICM on GE VIs, preferring to dwell on the ICM Euro poll, but that 32% for the Tories is remarkably low for them in an ICM poll, isn’t it? ICM are usually a little more favourable to them than other pollsters and a 3% drop may well be quite a significant development. In fact, unless I’m missing something, all the pollsters are now clearly showing the Tory VI heading south.

    Today’s YouGov suggests we’re firmly back to pre-budget days and, sorry Ken, the last two Populus polls look like absolute turkeys compared to what all the other pollsters are detecting. In fact I’m hearing that, as a final nail in their credibility coffin, they recently conducted a poll in Merseyside showing a clear majority were hoping that Chelsea would win the title!

    In summary, 5-6% Labour leads seem to be the order of the day again and normal service has been resumed.

    How do they say? The rest is just noise! :-)

  48. As it happens there are relatively few seats where Labour will be affected by a below-average swing in London. In Lancashire (including Blackpool & Blackburn in this case), which has only 16 constituencies, I currently expect 5 Labour gains from the Tories, whereas in London with over 70 seats I expect the same number, and two of those extremely narrow. Labour should be totally confident of taking Enfield N, and pretty confident of Brentford & Isleworth, and Hendon. A below-average swing would jeopardise 2 seats which I currently have very narrowly in the Labour column (Croydon C & Harrow E), but that wouldn’t be fatal if it were somewhat higher somewhere else such as the W Midlands or the NW, where they could perhaps compensate by taking S Ribble or Stourbridge for example. All very interesting – but looking at the last 6 polls Labour’s lead has been 6,6,6,2,5 & again 6 per cent which does suggest that the party’s lead nationally is no lower than it was at the start of the year after the quite serious Budget wobble.

  49. beg your pardon – forgot that there are 2 polls tonight showing Lab 5% ahead, not just the one. A lead of 5% in the ICM poll, which is far from generous to Labour in general, will be quite pleasing in particular.

  50. @OldNat

    Not that regularly. But I’ll save the point for Panelbase henceforth since they seem to have taken the art form to new levels.

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