Two new polls tonight (YouGov/Sunday Times is still to come) and both showing six point Labour leads and UKIP increasing their support.
The online ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4). The 20% for UKIP is the highest that ComRes have shown to date, the 7 for the Lib Dems the lowest.
Meanwhile Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+3). Opinium tend to show higher UKIP scores anyway, so this isn’t as record-breaking as the ComRes figure, they’ve shown UKIP at 20 and 21 in the past.
Looking at the broader trend UKIP do appear to be picking up more support. Ipsos MORI this week also showed them on the up, YouGov have been showing increased UKIP support in their daily polls since the second debate. As ever, be careful about ascribing changes in support to particular events. The increase in UKIP support seems to have started after the second Farage-Clegg debate, but it also comes with expenses back in the news, and with the European elections approaching and the consequential increased publicity for the party.