Two new polls tonight (YouGov/Sunday Times is still to come) and both showing six point Labour leads and UKIP increasing their support.

The online ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4). The 20% for UKIP is the highest that ComRes have shown to date, the 7 for the Lib Dems the lowest.

Meanwhile Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+3). Opinium tend to show higher UKIP scores anyway, so this isn’t as record-breaking as the ComRes figure, they’ve shown UKIP at 20 and 21 in the past.

Looking at the broader trend UKIP do appear to be picking up more support. Ipsos MORI this week also showed them on the up, YouGov have been showing increased UKIP support in their daily polls since the second debate. As ever, be careful about ascribing changes in support to particular events. The increase in UKIP support seems to have started after the second Farage-Clegg debate, but it also comes with expenses back in the news, and with the European elections approaching and the consequential increased publicity for the party.

176 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. UKIP did rather well in the last Euro elections so it seems likely that some ‘dyed in the wool’ Labour supporters voted for UKIP then. And the Euros are nearest elections so that’s possibly a factor. Thereafter, I’m sure that all Parties will be aware that the UKIP vote might not fade as it did after the last Euros but I’m guessing that it probably will.

  2. From the BBC

    “Old ladies & irregulars at Sloviansk say there are no Russian troops. But then two green men with guns appeared, gave orders and vanished”

    I always knew Dan Dare and the Mekon was a true story.

  3. These green men, were they little?

  4. Probably.

  5. Rosie and Daisy,

    A big woof to you….welcome back. Has that big bad Dad of yours kept you off-line ?

  6. As some may know, I have a polling head in two camps, namely here and the Netherlands. There, the Dutch kipper (Wilders PVV) went OTT recently during the local elections (‘Waddawewant, fewer Morroccans, when dowewannit…’ in a ra ra meeting that reminded me of Kinnock in Sheffield) and caused an exodus from his party of some supporters and leading henchmen. At the same time, like our LDs here, the PvdA (Labour) has been punished for having coalesced in a joint government with the right wing orange booker liberals (VVD) and imposing austerity, very successfully I might add.

    Dijsselbloem, the Labour Chancellor makes Osborne look like a woolly wet liberal! You may remember him in connection with the Cyprus ‘haircut’.

    Here’s the irony. The haemorrhaged PvdA (Labour) support has gone to the Dutch liberal democrats (D66) which is now the largest party in the polls and took victory in the locals in Amsterdam and Rotterdam from Labour (incredible events in Dutch circles).

    So in summary, what has happened there is a complete opposite of what is happening here, except that the underlying reasons are the same, namely dissatisfaction with junior partners in government imposing austerity being expressed, regardless of supposed political outlook.

  7. “Has that big bad Dad of yours kept you off-line ?”

    Something like that CMJ.

  8. There is something chillingly Orwellian about the Russian response to the seizure of Govt buildings in Ukraine.

    a/ It is a sign of the Ukrainian Govt’s inability to keep order

    b/ If they try to do anything about it we reserve the “right” to intervene.

    Good grief.

    I seem to remember an SNP spokesperson saying that they want robe like Norway.
    That should please you as they are one of the leading lights inThorium reactors technology

  10. I phone problem “to be” not “robe”!!

  11. I phone problem “to be” not “robe”!!

  12. Are they not cold enough already??

  13. @ R&D

    None of these problems in the Donbass would be happening if the EU had accepted Yanukovich’s decision in November 2013 not to sign up to its proposals. Russia, and Russians within the current Ukrainian borders, do not accept the legitimacy of the current neo-Fascist Kiev regime.

    If this was a little local problem it wouldn’t matter, but the West is upping the ante by encouraging the Banderist administration in Kiev, instead of working with Russia to establish a neutral government there. Mishandling of the situation could lead to WWIII.

    There needs to be an agreement to fix the current Eastern limits of NATO and the EU as their permanent boundaries, with the only possible exception being a possible future incorporation of the Rumanian-speaking part of Moldova west of the Dnestr River, which has natural affinities with Rumania.

  14. dao

    Ta for that.

    On a milder “beyond irony” I like this conversation.

    Scots Indies: “We’ll be better alone”

    BT: “Oh no you won’t”

    SI: “OooooooH !!!!!! How negative.”

  15. @ Rosie&Daisie

    That is exactly it, in a nutshell. :-)

  16. @DAODAO: “None of these problems in the Donbass would be happening if the EU had accepted Yanukovich’s decision in November 2013 not to sign up to its proposals.”

    Impressive how the EU mobilised thousands of residents of Kiev and got them out onto the streets. No doubt we can expect similar EU-organised rallies over here in the run up to the Euros.

  17. RogerH

    Not wanting to in anyway link myself to Daodao following his homophobic post earlier but I think ‘mobilising thousands of people onto the streets’ is not a good argument

    There have frequently been demonstrations against our own Govenments measuring in the 10s and even 100s thousands – would we then accept that as reasoning for the overthrow of Government?

  18. I haven’t made that argument. My only point concerned the ridiculous allegation that the EU was responsible for the unrest.

  19. From and including all the local elections since 6th March 2014 UKIP have contested no less than 25. Of which 19 were contested for their first time by UKIP. Over this period UKIP’s vote share ranged from 8.2% to 28.8%. The average percentage for UKIP over this period is no less than 19.32% and remember these are actual votes cast they are not subject to weightings or other analysis.
    No doubt about it UKIP will cost the Tories many seats in the GE and they are beginning to realise that fact.

  20. “remember these are actual votes cast they are not subject to weightings or other analysis”

    Which is why they shouldn’t be used as a basis for any predictions.


    “It’s all sounding good; I think you’ve found a political niche that’ll get you enough votes for a seat in the Euro Parliament. ;-”


    Well we are supposed to be giving Scotland our place in the Euro thing… but they do seem to be able to claim a lot od expenses these MEPs, so policy could be flexible on that point…

  22. 9BFIELD

    “I seem to remember an SNP spokesperson saying that they want robe like Norway.”


    They do? Figures they wouldn’t want to be like Scotland or anything. That would be too easy..

  23. DAODAO
    I know that Nigel Farage earns a fat screw for a monthly appearance on Russia Today. Are you him or his alter ego?

  24. @Bfield

    Lol, you can go too far, you know!! But does Farage know the decay chain of Thorium 233? Or why Plutonium 238 is particularly handy for deep space missions. He probably doesn’t even know the typical monthly storage rates. (But he probably knows quite a bit about EU expenses though…)

  25. Farage may not but I think I do,
    Thorium 233 undergoes beta decay to give Protactinium 233, which produces Uranium 233 again via beta decay.

  26. Howard i really dont think you can compare Wilders to UKIP, sorry!

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