For a Thursday there was rather a lot of polling today which I’m only just getting chance to catch up with.

Firstly we had Ipsos MORI‘s monthly political monitor for the Standard. Topline voting intention figures are CON 31%(-1), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 9%(-4), UKIP 15%(+4) – a good boost for UKIP following the Clegg-Farage debate. The 15% for UKIP matches the highest they’ve ever received from the pollster, last reached in April 2013.

The rest of the MORI poll had some questions on perceptions of the leaders, which showed the familiar comparisons between Ed Miliband and David Cameron: Cameron is seen as a more capable Prime Minister and better in a crisis, Miliband is seen as less out of touch. MORI also found a budget bounce in George Osborne’s reputation, nudging his approval rating into positive territory. 47% are now satisfied with his performance as Chancellor, 44% disatisfied, the best MORI have found for a Chancellor since 2006 (and the best for a Tory Chancellor since 1980). Full details of the MORI polling are here.

The second GB poll of the day was the daily YouGov poll for the Sun. They had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%, but also had some Maria Miller questions here. 83% think she was right to resign, 63% think Cameron should have sacked her immediately rather than standing by her.

Moving on from GB polls, there were also two Scottish referendum polls, one showing a slight but insignificant drop for YES, one showing things static. The first by Survation for the Record had referendum voting intentions of YES 37%(-2), NO 47%(-1). Tabs are here. Interestingly enough Survation also asked Scottish voting intentions for the European elections. Most Scottish voting intention questions at the moment don’t interest me that much given the referendum result will shake things up either way, but the European election obviously comes before the referendum. Survation have figures of CON 13%, LAB 30%, LD 6%, SNP 39%, UKIP 7%. That would give the SNP three MEPs, Labour two and the Conservatives one. The Lib Dems would lose theirs and UKIP would fail to break through in Scotland.

The second poll was a Panelbase one commissioned by the YES campaign, which showed the same five point lead for NO recorded in the previous two Panelbase polls: YES 40%(-1), NO 45%(-1). Tabs are here.


327 Responses to “Thursday polling round up”

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  1. @Alec

    You seem to be absolutely besotted by the question of currency. Let’s try to agree on a couple facts.

    Firstly, the SNP proposal (which is not the official position of the Yes campaign, which has no position on the subject) is that a currency union would be best for all concerned. I tend to be a bit sceptical, but would be willing to give it a go. Others have differing views, but a currency union is not, as far as I know, an automatic adjunct to the Yes vote.

    Secondly, neither the current Westminster government, nor the current Scottish government, is guaranteed to be in power during the final period of negotiations over the breakup of Great Britain. We simply cannot say that negotiating positions taken in a pre referendum exchange of vitriol is going to be the position of two different governments in two years’ time.

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  2. @ John B

    I wasn’t talking about Scotland in particular, but more generally. I would include your “little Englanders” amongst the culprits. I think, unfortunately, that nationalism will triumph because tribalism is in our genes, and we soon forget past conflicts caused by it. And to return to the topic of the site, it is a powerful lever for VI and so an easy option for populist politicians. .

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  3. @Colin

    Different times. Different rulers. Different people.

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  4. @Amber Star

    ‘So Alex Salmond could resign before the referendum & the SNP could ‘fail’ to appoint a successor thereby triggering an election. That would do the job. But obviously AS & the SNP aren’t that keen to convince Labour voters, despite what AS is saying at conference.’

    I don’t agree. AS and NS are absolutely genuine in their appeal to Labour supporters. It is the only way the Yes campaign can win.
    If we arrive at the beginning of September and Yes are still behind, then AS might well feel that an election after the coming NO vote would be necessary, if only to clear the air and have a new mandate for whichever party came out top.
    You may not believe it, but for the SNP a Labour government of an independent Scotland is better than a Tory government imposed on us by the English.

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  5. Two further thoughts:

    Of course there is a fair amount of hatred between Labour and SNP – so I ought to have said ‘for the Yes campaign a Labour government….. etc.’

    One of the many unknowns of the outcome of September 18 is the situation facing the SNP government following the failure of the referendum campaign.

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  6. @ newhouset

    The terminology is not important, but the “Acts of Union” of 1536 and 1543 were in effect an integration of Wales into English jurisdiction, by a monarch who was indeed part Welsh, but wanted all parts of his realm to be treated in the same way. My point was simply that secession of Scotland from the UK would challenge the continuation of the union of Wales and England, formalised under these acts many centuries ago.

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  7. @ John B

    You may not believe it, but for the SNP a Labour government of an independent Scotland is better than a Tory government imposed on us by the English.
    ————–
    Then why is Alex Salmond talking about an election in 2016? He could resign at the appropriate time & we could vote in the referendum knowing there’d be an election immediately afterwards. But he won’t do it, John because he’s no different to other politicians; he & his Party will sacrifice independence rather than risk making a sacrifice themselves.

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  8. @ newhouset

    The acts of 1536 and 1543 effectively integrated Wales into English jurisdiction, by a monarch (who was indeed part Welsh) who wanted all parts of his realm to be treated in the same way. My point was simply that Scottish secession from the UK would challenge this continuing union, established many centuries ago.

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  9. opinium….

    Toby Helm ?@tobyhelm 16s

    Lab lead back to 6 in latest Opinium/Obs poll as Ukip surges. Lab 36 (+3), Con 30 (-2), Ukip 18 (+3), Libs 7% (-3).

    Ukip have definitely benefited from the last couple of weeks…both coalition parties will find the next general election challenging, IMO

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  10. Where’s ChrisLane1945 when you need him to comment on the unrealistically high LD numbers

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  11. UKIP vote over two and a half times the Lib vote there. Still fair to call them the third party?

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  12. @Amber Star

    ‘Then why is Alex Salmond talking about an election in 2016? He could resign at the appropriate time & we could vote in the referendum knowing there’d be an election immediately afterwards. But he won’t do it, John because he’s no different to other politicians; he & his Party will sacrifice independence rather than risk making a sacrifice themselves.’

    2016 is the next scheduled election for Holyrood. The problem for the SNP government is how to address the situation after the No vote. Potentially they could be seen as having lost their legitimacy as a government, having lost their major policy. In such circumstances, the only way to re-establish the authority of Holyrood would be to have an election and a new government soon after the referendum.

    And it’s ‘no different from’, not ‘no different to’….

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  13. @PETER CRAWFORD:

    Although a good result I wouldn’t describe +3 as a surge.

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  14. @ rogerh

    The battles I referred to were examples of conflicts between the Anglo-Saxon invaders and the Brythonic
    tribes; most, but not all, were Anglo-Saxon victories and their control gradually extended westwards. As we all know, contemporary historical records are poor or non-existent and there is a lot of conjecture about the events of this period.

    I never suggested that all the existing inhabitants of South-Eastern Britain were wiped out, merely that they did not survive in the long-term in separate distinctive communities; the culture/language of England had become Anglo-Saxon by the time of the Danish invasion.

    By contrast, although English/Scottish settlement of Ulster began more than 4 centuries ago, and Irish Gaelic is no longer widely used, integration has not happened in the North of Ireland. The 2 communities live substantially separate lives; they attend different churches and schools and mostly inhabit different areas.

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  15. @ John B

    And the SNP won’t vote to have an election in e.g. October 2014. Holding on until 2016 will be more important to them than winning the referendum or doing the right thing when/if they lose.

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  16. @AmberStar

    That’s a little bit cynical, no?

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  17. Anyone got a source for this suggestion that a Holyrood election would be held before 2016?

    I haven’t seen anything about it.

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  18. @ Old Nat

    It’s a suggestion of what the SNP could do, were they serious in wanting the referendum vote to not be all about Alex Salmond & the SNP.

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  19. YouGov / Progress (who are they?) have a somewhat odd poll on “the English”.

    “Here are some ways in which different people describe English people. Which four or five, if any, do you think apply most to the English?”

    I wonder what the purpose of such a poll was?

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nak71c6npb/Internal_Results_140310_Peter_English.pdf

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  20. Amber

    That doesn’t seem to square with your initial reply to Fraser – though I couldn’t find his post.

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  21. What are Progress up to? I’m suspicious!

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  22. Comres IOS/Sunday Mirror

    Lab 35 Con 29 LD 7 UKIP 20

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  23. @ Old Nat

    Fraser’s post is at 1:40pm; my response was ironic/sarcastic (delete as appropriate) although perhaps I placed too much reliance on the “?” to indicate my tone.

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  24. Good Evening All just in,

    GUYMONDE.
    Why are the two new polls giving unrealistically high numbers to the LD’s?
    Is it due, do you think, to bad weighting.

    Have I missed something in Scotland, relating to polls and to a semi final match?

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  25. Noo thread chris and you are needed.

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  26. @John B – think you’re being a bit unfair suggesting I’m obsessed with the currency issue. I’ve posted many times (including the last couple of days) on energy, and in fact, when I post about currency, it isn’t so much about currency per se, but more about the unrealistic ideas about how the UK will approach the post yes negotiations.

    I have also been talking about the yes campaign and the SNP, as I am well aware they are separate.

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