Two new European election polls over the last couple of days. A Populus poll for the FT shows Labour in first place, with the Conservatives and UKIP fighting for second place. Topline figures are CON 27%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 3%. It was conducted between the 4th-6th of April, so after the Clegg-Farage debate. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile a new TNS-BMRB poll also has Labour in first place, but only narrowly ahead of UKIP with the Conservatives in quite a distant third. Topline figures are CON 21%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 29%. Fieldwork was also post-debate, and tabs are here.

All the European election polling so far is collected here. Note that some of the variation is down to treatment of likelihood to vote. ComRes and TNS BMRB take only those people who say they are absolutely certain to vote, which helps UKIP. YouGov include all respondents and tend to show less positive figures for UKIP (but provide a crossbreak for only those certain to vote which is also very strong for UKIP). Populus weight by likelihood to vote, which is somewhere inbetween (everyone is included, but people who are unlikely to vote are weighted down).


168 Responses to “Populus and TNS European polls”

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  1. First?

  2. A clear explanation, but leaves me no clearer as to what is actually likely to happen. Which I suppose leaves lots of room for discussion on this forum. Who knows, said discussion may actually clarify things for me.

  3. I think that after the desaterous Miller fiasco this week one prediction I am now certain of. Thr Conservative will come third in next months EU elections. It will be close betwee UKIP and Labour who wins. The Liberals need not even bother to vote

  4. @Gog The Mild

    What’s happened to your brother, Gog the Bitter?

  5. For what it’s worth I find it very hard to predict as well, particularly with multi-party contests, and PR within large european consituencies, with different numbers of MEPs..

    The results last time were

    Conservatives 26 seats 4.198m votes 27.7%
    UKIP 13 seats 2.498m votes 16.5%
    Labour 13 seats 2.381m votes 15.7%
    LibDems 11 seats 2.080m votes 13.7%

    (votes unrounded).

    There have been some defections since the election.

    Labour lost six seats last time, and as they are heading the opinion polls this time would hope to reverse this situation.

  6. @Colin

    Your man John Mann doesn’t let these things go easily, does he? He’s after Miller about her severance pay now […]

    http://labourlist.org/2014/04/john-mann-calls-for-maria-miller-to-forego-lucrative-severance-pay/

  7. @CB11

    His double vision means that most of his posts come out badly slurred, so he has been banned.

    @Alister

    Thank you. That helps. A little.

  8. @Gog the Mild

    “His double vision means that most of his posts come out badly slurred, so he has been banned.”

    Give himsh shmy regardshh. Hic

    :-)

  9. TNS poll is rather a small base to work from in Scotland – MOE rather large, I would have thought. Any definitive verdict on that, AW?

  10. @Gog the Mild

    Did I meet one of your Scottish cousins, recently: Gog the Heavy?

  11. @Jamesbarn

    Taking the logic on a step, if some Con voters (who generally turnout) decide to give their vote to another party, we would traditionally expect them not to opt for Labour, and in more modern times, we might expect them opt for UKIP as the party of protest (but will Con voters give the threat party more justification?).

    I’ll go UKIP, Lab, Con, etc.

  12. @GOG

    How’s Magog these days?

  13. @John B

    Quite possibly. He gets around a bit up there. Eg http://www.scottishhills.com/html/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=16006

    @Norbold

    Still sulking after John Devine’s slanders.

    And I think that at that I shall consider myself introduced, least I end up in moderation.

    From all this I gather that regular contributers found tis set of data as gripping as I did?

  14. @BField

    Very elegant writing.

    Here is an ONS paper which refers to different measures of economic well-being from the 7th of April

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_358832.pdf

    it covers some of your points but not written quite so poetically,

  15. people seem to have gone very quiet about the prospect of crossover polls. Shows how the agenda moves on very quickly.

    I think if there isn’t at least ONE poll showing the tories ahead, they’re in deep trouble, before May.

    The eu elections take place on 22nd May. Ukip will do very well. they’ll get a lot of coverage till the beginning of july.

    The govt’s next chance to “change” the narrative will be at reshuffle, prob in July, but i don’t think any reshuffle in history has affected VI. then conference in october…

    Even if labour lose vi at the same rate, in the run up to May 2015, as they did from March 2013 (13 months ago), they’ll get 34%. [using a straight line depreciation, so to speak]…people might say that the trajectory from 37.5% to 34% will be slower than the 41% to 37.5% they have travelled since Mar 2013…..

    At 34% it is very difficult to see how they are not the largest party, the tories, to get to be the largest party, would have to get at least 37% or, probably, 38% (based on difficulty of prising lib dems from incumbent positions)

  16. Not sure whether having locals the same day increases turnout- both Euros and locals seem to have similar turnouts on their own but maybe the double vote helps (or encourages local activists to get the vote out).

    Don’t know what to make of the turnout weightings. I’m sure Anthony once said that people who say they will definitely vote often don’t, however it seems to be written in stone that more Tories/UKIP do turn out to vote. Also very difficult to tell if Labour voters are gagging to get rid of the Tories or not. I think they will be relatively keen at the GE but no so much this year.

  17. Gog the Mild

    Should it not be ‘Grog the Mild’?

  18. “people seem to have gone very quiet about the prospect of crossover polls”

    Perhaps because the prospect is less than it was?

    Personally, I haven’t said much of it. I prefer neck in neck polls. Far less partisan, and crossover poll chat just gives each side to say ‘yeah but, no but’, and it becomes less and less about polling.

  19. I think that with some confidence it is likely that Labour will double its vote from the last euro’s
    Yet I confidently predict that this will be portrayed as a failure if Ukip come first

  20. I can envisage a scenario where a tipping point in Ukip support comes and the assumption that ‘they will return to the Tory fold’ goes in the opposite direction. Not wanting to frighten the horses/stoke up unrealistic hopes, but the assumption is just that.

    Pint of Black Swan anyone?

  21. @ Gog,

    From all this I gather that regular contributers found tis set of data as gripping as I did?

    Lol!

    The problem with European election polling is that it’s basically uninterpretable until we know how accurate the Ukip weighing is, and by definition we can’t know that until after the vote. Everyone will have a jolly time ranking the pollsters for accuracy once the result comes in, but until then there’s not much to say.

  22. HOWARD

    “Should it not be ‘Grog the Mild’?”

    I find that comment a touch rum.

  23. Guymonde

    I don’t think that you made that comment in the right spirit.

  24. I am sure Gog is a stout fellow, as he has already demonstrated.

  25. FLOATINGVOTER
    Thanks for the link but my point is still that GDP is no measure if how well people feel about their own economic prospects.

    Have you any thoughts on what might be an appropriate measure?

  26. The “crossover” is going to happen very soon – when UKIP over take the Tories into 2nd place after the Euro elections.

  27. Michael Fabricant has been sacked.What IS going on in the Conservative Party?

  28. Crackdown on dissent by the look of things. All parties do it.

  29. @Shevii

    Not sure about turnout but the different voting systems for the elections will confuse a few.

  30. Mr Nameless,
    Yes,but he did have a sense of humour.Rather rare these days.

  31. His haircut certainly makes me laugh – but you’re right. Funny MPs are hard to come by.

  32. @Ann in Wales

    If Michael Fabricant has gone, then who’s in charge of the hair portfolio?

    I wonder if he said something during the private Conservative meeting tonight. Never known to be understated, is he?

  33. @Catmanjeff,

    You know Boris and Heseltine are still around?

  34. Grant Schapps apparently told Fabricant to resign, he refused, so Schapps then sacked him.

    As Ann says – what IS going on in the Conservatives?
    All Fabricant tweeted was “About time” about Miller AFTER she had gone – well, that’s hardly a sacking offense is it? – there must be more to this than meets the eye?

  35. Have been saying that any order of the three parties could occur at Euros, but getting increasingly confident that Cons won’t get 1st and Lab’ll get at least 2nd. Still reckon UKIP could end up anywhere though. You’d expect them to get a lot stronger as we get closer but mebe this time everyone’ll “gang up” on ’em….

  36. Catmanjeff ,
    Are you referring to the 1922 meeting?

  37. @Bfield

    I’ve just seen that Bobby Kennedy quotation from 1968 that you posted on the previous thread and it’s one that I’ve never seen before. Stirring and trenchant words indeed about what quality of life really means and I share your view that he was a great loss, not only to the US, but the world.

  38. Tweet – “Survation – POLL ALERT! New #indyref Scotland EP, Holyrood and Westminster polling coming overnight”.

  39. Trouble is with Fabricant that he makes it up as he goes along .
    Boom! Boom !

  40. Even,
    Don’t they all?

  41. Sorry,
    Ewen.

  42. Sorry Ann
    Fabricant = somebody who makes things…I know, I’ll get mycoat.

  43. @ Tony Dean,

    All Fabricant tweeted was “About time” about Miller AFTER she had gone – well, that’s hardly a sacking offense is it? – there must be more to this than meets the eye?

    George Eaton over at the New Statesman says it’s because he vowed to vote against HS2- it’s volatile enough on the backbenches that the leadership can’t afford to allow any dissent from ministers.

    (Although the irony of Shapps sacking anyone while keeping his own job…)

  44. Ann,

    Yes I was referring to the 1922 committee meeting.

    This is the story

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2014/04/09/lichfield-mp-michael-fabricant-sacked-as-tory-vice-chairman/

    It appears his position as vice-chairman was not compatible with his views on HS2, among other things.

    Of course he’s the sort of MP people love as a ‘character’, but no doubt trying to manage him in your own party is not as much fun…..

  45. A survey of recent polls in EU countries shows that, UK excepted, PES/SD is clearly ahead of EPP in the following 11 countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Sweden (this does not mean that they are 1st party everywhere, for example in Denmark they are 2nd or 3d, it just means that their score is clearly higher than that of the EPP parties). EPP leads PES/SD in the following 10 countries: Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia. Finally, the two parties are statistically tied in the following 6 countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Malta, Netherlands and Spain. Translated in seats, the findings show a 15-20 seat lead of EPP, mainly thanks to their 10-14 seat lead in Germany. So, if Labour gets more than 20 seats, as the current polls seem to indicate, it offers the victory to PES/SD.

  46. Don’t know why we’re not talking about crossover.

    After all, Labour are only 1% ahead in the “latest opinion polls”.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18264385

    I suppose the site will be updated when Labour are next 1% ahead, and then forgotten about again.

  47. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead down one to three points: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%

  48. ITV poll – 49% trust MPs less after Miller affair.

    I’m not sure it’s possible to have less than 0% trust.

  49. OldNat

    Am I right in thinking that Survation is now in The Record?

    And do you know if there will be a Euro election poll which would be the first in Scotland since the Clegg/Farage debate?.

    The previous ICM figures of two weeks back would have given the SNP three seats (up one) the Labs two and the Tories one – leaving none at all for the UKIP and the Libs!

    If Survation were to confirm this then it would be good news for the NATS.- and the Farage/Clegg debate would be left as the two baldies arguing over the metaphorical comb!

  50. @ Peter Crawford

    ‘I think if there isn’t at least ONE poll showing the tories ahead, they’re in deep trouble, before May’

    Not so sure – 12 months of growth between now and GE will have an effect. I still think there is a good chance of the polls reversing by this time next year ie Tory three/four point lead.

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