A YouGov poll for Saturday’s Telegraph has the two main parties neck and neck on 36%. The full topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s last poll are CON 36%(-1), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 16%(-2).

While it is but a single poll, if other polls show a similar trend it will suggests that Labour have significantly benefited from their conference and from the leap in perceptions of Tony Blair. Apart from the MORI poll earlier this month this is the first poll to put Labour as high as 36% since before the local elections in May, certainly they have been steady at around 31%-33% in YouGov’s polls for the last five months. The Labour boost is at the expense of both the Conservatives and Lib Dems (while the Conservatives are down only 1 point on the most recent YouGov poll, they are down 2 from another YouGov poll with only slightly earlier fieldwork).

It’s not unusual to see parties’ receive boosts from the party conferences. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary effect of the glow around Tony Blair’s final conference speech that will rapidly dissipate or a more substantial recovery for Labour after a difficult six months, and indeed whether the boost is cancelled out by a Tory boost from their conference next week.

More to come tomorrow…


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