Just catching up on another Scottish poll at the weekend – Panelbase produced a new referendum poll for Wings Over Scotland. Topline figures are YES 41%(+1), NO 46%(+1), confirming the narrower lead we saw in the last Panelbase poll in mid-March. Full tabs are here.

There remains a considerable contrast between pollsters on the Scottish referendum so it’s important to compare like to like. Panelbase consistently show the narrowest leads – for much of last year they were showing leads of about 8-10 points, that’s now narrowed to five points in their last two polls. Survation and ICM are also showing single point leads. YouGov and TNS are currently show leads in the mid-teens (though TNS has far more don’t knows than other companies), MORI continue to show leads up in the twenties. A broad range of leads, but the general trend across pollsters in recent months seems to have been a slow drift towards YES. All the polls so far are collected here.

On other matters, Populus’s twice weekly poll this morning had topline voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. Tabs here.


185 Responses to “Panelbase/Wings over Scotland – YES 41%, NO 46%”

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  1. @Colin

    And there was me thinking that you were Roland Haines alter ego. Colin when on sedatives, old Rolly when you’d missed the medication and the mouth began to froth over a “lefty” post. lol

    I’m not sure you do irony, but surely you spotted a little of it in these two comments sitting side by side in one of your earlier posts: -

    “The Twa Dogs on the Lounge Bar Stool as it were.”

    “For my part the ability to disagree fundamentally here without rancour or personal attack is what marks out the best of the site.”

    Beyond parody, indeed. :-)

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  2. @Bfield

    “COLIN
    Perhaps it would be wise for us to read what he actually says before commenting.”

    Steady on. You must be new to this site.

    :-)

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  3. CB11

    And a very cordial Good Morning to you on this bright Spring day.

    I do the ironing occasionally. I must confess I find it therapeutic .

    As for Parody I leave that to Hegemon of Thasos, and your goodself . :-)

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  4. BFIELD

    If we are -as you suggest-to wait for the spoken word-I wonder what the point of releases like this is ?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/96001/labour_ed_miliband_speech_tackling_the_cost_of_living_crisis_and_ending_a_century_of_centralisation.html

    Just a thought.

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  5. Fraser

    “Incompetence has been the Tory problem since the omnishambles shattered perceptions.”

    In order to provide some balance that is not how the publics view of how the Government is performing on the economy. At least not in the way they respond to polling questions. Maybe who is best equipped to run the econmy will be the most important issue at the election in which case things do not look good for Labour.

    Spearmint
    I think your right to be worried.

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  6. @JTE
    Are we back to Polldrums again?

    Some points to ponder:

    1. EU membership is still popular in Scotland whilst UKIP are not – no representation under STV and no deposit saved under plurality system.

    2. UKIP look to being 1st or 2nd in Euro polls for EWNI – unhelpful to No Better Together?

    3. The “regulated” campaign period for the Scottish referendum – where broadcasters but not newspapers have some requirement to be impartial – begins one week to the day after the Euro poll results are known. Perfect timing by the Scottish Government?

    IMO, unless No Better Together can retain MORI levels of lead until then, things can only get bitter, as New Labor would have put it.

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  7. @ RMJ,

    It is assumed that all Labour need to do to finish ahead is to be level or very close to the Conservatives. Is this necessarily true?

    Yes. Ukip is at risk of taking four or five seats at most, all of which are currently in Tory hands (although some are Labour targets). Most likely they will win none, or one. At this point they are irrelevant to government formation, although they can obviously influence the election by taking voters from the electable parties in marginals (you can decide for yourself which parties are most endangered by this: http://i.imgur.com/1KwHOHB.png).

    As far as the SNP is concerned, the critical calculation is not how many votes any one party possesses, but how many votes it has against it in a confidence or supply motion. Last time the SNP brought down a Labour government and let in the Tories, they lost 80% of their MPs. They won’t make that mistake again, especially not when it might cost Salmond his job in the next Holyrood elections.

    Since the SNP cannot be seen to support a Conservative government, the apportioning of Scottish seats (forgive me, Amber) doesn’t matter much. As long as they are kept out of the hands of the Tories and Liberal Democrats, they reduce Cameron’s total. Obviously Labour would prefer to hold every seat themselves, but the SNP, Plaid or the Greens taking them is a tolerable alternative because they have no choice but to bring down a minority Tory government and prop up a Labour one.

    The only thing that could shift the electoral arithmetic to bring the Tories closer to parity is Scottish independence.

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  8. @ T’Other Howard,

    Thanks. Although, to be fair that’s a bit like Chris Lane thinking the Lib Dems are too high. ;)

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  9. RMJI

    The idea that ukip is taking votes from everyone equally is a nonsense which needs to be quickly addressed. They are tory killers, pure and simple.

    As usual, Mike Smithson is the sanest and most clear-headed on this….

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/08/ukip-is-taking-six-times-as-many-votes-from-the-tories-as-it-is-from-labour/

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  10. @ToH

    You and Fraser are both a bit right. The public thinks both the Tories and Labour are rubbish at economics.

    The polls are suggesting that the Tories are not getting as much of a bounce as their partisans demand they deserve possibly because the electorate have such a dim view of their economic competence (the Tories lost any rep for being any good with the economy during the Major administration and have yet to get it back) that they seem to have largely concluded that recovery has happened despite the Tories rather than because of them.

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  11. @Colin

    “And a very cordial Good Morning to you on this bright Spring day.
    I do the ironing occasionally. I must confess I find it therapeutic .”

    Cordiality is my by-word, as you know, and Spring Days are one of my favourite things in life too. As for ironing, I tend to pass on that, preferring the stay-pressed trousers and Ben Sherman shirts of my youth. I’ve given up the Dr Martens though! I tend to get my therapy from irony rather than ironing. :-)

    Ironing as therapy? Get a life Colin old boy!

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  12. Chris Riley

    “they seem to have largely concluded that recovery has happened despite the Tories rather than because of them.”

    As far as i know there is no polling evidence to support that view. Do you have any?

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  13. Spearmint

    LOL

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  14. Populus/FT (EU Voting Intention):

    Lab 31;
    Cons 27;
    UKIP 25;
    LD 10

    Poor Clegg.

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  15. One very odd figure from the latest YG poll. Lib Dems on 18% in the 25-39 age group. Strikes me as a bit strange.

    Think this YG poll has scored Labour a bit low and polls over the coming days will show Labour nearer to 40%.

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  16. Well the EU is most popular with the young, it could be a Clegg Debate bounce – but realistically it’s probably a bit of a dodgy sample.

    All the parties seem to be embracing ideas of localism, albeit in different ways. If this becomes a political talking point, there could yet be political capital to be made.

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  17. @Peter Crawford

    “The idea that ukip is taking votes from everyone equally is a nonsense which needs to be quickly addressed. They are tory killers, pure and simple.”

    You put it more starkly than I would, and I think there is some danger further down the road that Labour could leak support UKIP’s way, certainly if their bandwagon really did start to roll, but I think you, and Mike Smithson, point to a self-evident truth.

    I trawled through the by-election results that had occurred during this Parliament the other day, and shared the link to the website for those on UKPR who might have been similarly interested, and I could find no evidence of any movement from Labour to UKIP in any of them. The UKIP surges in constituencies like Eastleigh, South Shields and Wythenshawe and Sale had all come from collapsing Tory and Lib Dem vote shares. They’d made little or no inroads into the Labour vote that I could discern.

    We’ll know more about the extent of all this in a few weeks time when the Local and Euro elections take place, but the evidence provided so far from actual votes cast in real ballots, as opposed to opinion polls, points to them eating away at the Tory vote like voracious termites.

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  18. COLIN
    Point taken. Too quick to shoot from the hip.
    Will keep my powder dry in future, whilst continuing to mix my metaphors.

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  19. The pressure seems to grow by the hour for Maria Miller. She will be gone soon.

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  20. I like putting things very clearly. there is so much wishful thinking, self-delusion, willful ignorance and baloney in political punditry that clarity and distinctness are virtues; that’s why i like political betting; odds, and market prices in general, distil sentiment, hunches, data, expectations into a single number, which you can agree with or disagree with.

    The proposition that UKIP will harm both the largest parties equally is one of the worst myths being propagated at the moment. It is true that the purples could harm labour in the future, but they would have done huge damage to the Tories before they ever reach that point.

    The Wythenshawe by-election was a classic example of this. Both UKIP AND Labour showed double digit increases in % vote share, while the Tories and LDs suffered the exact reverse of this.

    More generally, I can’t see Labour losing a single seat they currently hold to a UKIP surge, while a strong UKIP performance will harm the Tories across dozens of seats where they are now currently incumbents.

    As i have said many times, the Right in this country is in total disarray…yet the Tory leadership and their buddies in the media seem oblivious to this.

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  21. CB11,

    “… I think there is some danger further down the road that Labour could leak support UKIP’s way …”

    What makes you say that?

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  22. This may have been missed earlier as it didn’t appear for a while.

    “Amber

    “Anyone missing “Rosie and Daisie”?
    ————-
    Me! Very much – but UKPR can be addictive & sometimes folks have other things to do; so I’ve been trying not to post comments saying I miss the wee rascals but I’m glad you asked. ”

    Thankyou Amber and others: I am deeply moved, as are the wee rascals, and we shall attempt to contribute something sometime soon.”

    ………………………………………………………………………………..

    Its been strange reading my obituaries whilst still alive.

    Mind you, I am due for k’nee hole surgery in May. Having said that, apparently the only risk to one’s life is if you fall off the trolley and land on yer head so – not bein’ daft – I shall hold on tight.

    The girls say hello.

    Paul

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  23. @STAN J

    “There was a ‘best poster’ award? Now I feel embarrassed for not at least sending an acceptance vid.”

    ————

    They crop up on a lot of boards… quite often it’s just a clique bigging themselves up a bit then it fizzles out. Sometimes people subvert it and go for irony and vote for someone really incongruous… which has been known to happen on CiF for example. It’s all part of what I like to call, Board Dynamics… (does anyone else call it that? ‘Cos in my mind, I made it up, but knowing my luck everyone uses it…)

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  24. Before I go out I just want to say that Spearmint’s post of 9:44 expresses very clearly the parliamentary arithmetic, particularly related to Scotland, which simply underlines the difficulties facing the Conservatives in winning a majority, or forming a government, in 2015.

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  25. Paul Croft and pups – glad you are still around.

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  26. @Colin

    Neil may well return… he’s faded before and returned… the exchanges on policing with Steve could be particularly illuminating, which subsided once the latter was banished into the murky world of premod. Paul has faded before and returns when he gets a little love. I may talk about money in the hope that RiN returns, tho’ I’m a bit miffed myself no one is taking the critical Thorium thing seriously…

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  27. @Carfew

    I take Thorium seriously .. except that I don’t quite know why the UK should invest in nuclear of either sort. But if that’s the plan, Thorium wins hands down.

    However, making electricity is easy and what we really need is a nationalised HVDC grid to join all the different renewables together for redistribution.

    6h sunlight falling on the world’s deserts would provide the annual global energy need.

    Btw Thorium is never going to be adopted because its too abundant. Profits are negatively correlated with abundance .. hence the destruction of clove trees in the 18th Century.

    I’m also happy to talk MMT (as far as I’m able) if it brings RiN back.. ..

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  28. @Rosie&Daisie

    Woof woof!!

    Valerie

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  29. @Peter Crawford

    “The idea that ukip is taking votes from everyone equally is a nonsense which needs to be quickly addressed. They are tory killers, pure and simple.”

    The charts seem to disagree. See the 5-poll rolling averages for the four parties since end of 2011 to present (LDs in green due to white backgrounds):

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/four_party_roll_ave.png

    Now there are caveats at the end of this post, so bear them in mind.

    As we can see, looking at the general trends, in 2012 UKIP was around 7-8%, while after March 2013 they were more in the 12% area. So a gain of 4-5% overall.

    Con VI dipped from 33% to a low of 29%, but they are back at 33%, or thereabouts. The LD’s VI popped up from 9% to 11%, but is down again to 9-10%. Meanwhile, Lab was on 43% and are now around 39% (perhaps lower in the most recent polls).

    Churn or otherwise (and I don’t see folk going from Con to UKIP to Lab), Lab is down 4-5% and UKIP is up 4-5% since 2012, with the Con and LD VI remaining fairly static in comparison.

    Caveats:

    The national VI may indeed be such that Lab has given 4-5% to UKIP, but I don’t think it’s a major problem for them (yet), and here’s why:

    The South: Lab folk shifting to UKIP in the South, are basically shifting a lost vote to a lost vote, or perhaps a winning vote i lucky.

    The North: Labour safe seats will not be overly affected by small shifts to another party, so Lab still wins them, and if UKIP is gaining Con VI in the North too, Lab has less to fear.

    So on the surface, Lab has leaked VI to UKIP. However, the regional trends might make it that it affects Con at an FPTP level more than Lab. It all depends on their overall national VI, and whether or not Lab losses to UKIP are in marginal seats (which is unknown).

    I might cobble together some regional charts on this later. I’m fairly good at cobblers anyway. :))

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  30. @Syzygy

    Thanks muchly for your comment. My partner has just arrived and I have to scoot (she likes Johnny Depp too so one can’t be too careful) but I shall reply in due course…

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  31. @RMJ1 “In Scotland Labour are no longer guaranteed those low turnout seats. Is there any way of checking if the old assumptions still hold?”

    In Scotland, especially post 1997, being “not Conservative” has been important.

    This is not to say that the Conservatives are nowhere to be found but where they are found the others tend to gang up against them. Despite only holding 1 seat in Scotland (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale) in 2010 the Conservatives held 2nd place in a further 15 seats (predominately rural areas with the odd former suburban stronghold – East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South West – thrown in). These 15 seats consist of 4 SNP, 4 Lib Dem and 7 Labour. In these relative Conservative strongholds the non Conservative vote tends to cluster to the party most likely to defeat Conservatives. It will of course be interesting to see how much Lib Dems sufffer in some of these seats from being in coalition and in 2 you could see the 3rd placed SNP coming over the top of both Con and Lib Dem to win (Argyll & Bute and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine). Additionally in Roxburgh and Berwickshire Conservatives could well leapfrog Lib Dems as anti Conservative voters desert Michael Moore. The other 11 are very unlikely to change hands as “not Conservative” voters will continue to ensure Conservatives don’t win.

    You then have 31 seats where Labour and SNP are 1st and 2nd. (2 SNP, 29 Labour). These are your potential Labour losses if SNP do well (and vice versa), however if we restrict ourselves to seats where they are within 20% of each other or where SNP is greater than 20% and Labour less than 50% these 29+2 battlegrounds become just 9+2. Even the closest of these – Ochil & South Perthshire – has SNP 10% behind Labour. There’s a couple more – Falkirk, Dundee West – where you could imagine SNP doing well but it would need a really big LAB – SNP swing for the SNP to even take 5 seats off Labour.

    There are then a further 10 seats which are Labour vs Lib Dem. The 5 Labour held seats are looking extremely safe post coalition, while Labour can target a couple of Lib Dem held seats (Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire) that look very vulnerable. Charles Kennedy will hold on in Ross Skye & Lochaber while Caithness and Inverness both look to be 3 way Labour/Lib Dem/SNP marginals.

    So by my reckoning there are only really 21 of the 59 Scottish seats in play in 2015.
    9 of 11 Lib Dem seats
    9 of 41 Labour seats
    2 of 6 SNP seats
    1 of 1 Conservative seats

    Of these I only expect around 10 to actually change hands with the big loser being the Lib Dems and Labour / SNP seat numbers relatively unchanged.

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  32. @Statgeek and others – UKIP taking votes from Lab

    Looking only at YouGov (I’m too idle to research others) there seems to be a pretty consistent pattern to the source of UKIP votes from 2010 voting pattern:
    for every vote UKIP take from Lab they take 2 from LD and 4 from Con.

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  33. @NorthumbrianScot

    Very much appreciating your input and generally in agreement with your thinking. My one slight doubt is whether the wounds opening up during the referendum campaign will have the effect of Labour and SNP voters being less likely to keep the anti-Tory vote as their number one priority and therefore willing to vote for the other party in order to keep the Tories out. As you rightly say, there are several constituencies where the Tories could win, given a following wind and a refusal to put blocking them as the priority. Lib Dems could also squeeze past as well in similar circumstances.

    It seems to me that the fallout from the Referendum campaign (given a No result) will not be known until the GE of 2015, and I would be against having any too firm views at this stage on what results we are going to see. But your thoughts are as good as it gets, I think, at the moment.

    Michael Moore may be saved by having been sacked. Argyll and Bute is anyone’s guess, and perhaps the same could be said of Inverness.

    Off to the other thread now.

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  34. So long as it is made clear that, if Scotland vote for independence, then those Scottish MPs at Westminster will not be able to vote on non-Scottish matters. Better still they don’t sit at Westminster at all. If that is the deal then the sooner they vote for independence, whatever it will actually mean in practice, will be a good thing. Otherwise this will rumble on year after year.

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  35. @GuyMonde
    There’s more to it than that. Analysis of the YoyGov cross-breaks suggest that UKIP has eaten into Labour’s previous gains from “Other 2010 ID” voters. (Yougov doesn’t show this group, but it can be back calculated from the results they do give). Some of the previous LD to Lab swichers have also, it appears, fallen for Farage’s charms since the beginning of the year. UKIP is causing Tory loss, but preventing Labour gain.

    Whether these ex-Con and ex-Other voters will remain Faragists at the polling booths is the decisive question.

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