The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Topline voting intentions are CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – a five point Labour lead, typical of the sort of leads we were seeing before that brief post-budget narrowing.

In addition to Westminster VI, YouGov also asked European voting intention again to see if there had been an impact from the Farage-Clegg debate. Last week we didn’t really see any effect. This week with the higher profile BBC debate (and the more convincing win for Farage) it appears to be a different case.

Up until now YouGov’s European polls have been showing Labour leading with the Conservatives and UKIP in a tight battle for second place. In today’s poll Labour are just two points ahead of UKIP, and UKIP have opened up a five point lead over the Conservatives in third place: CON 23%(-1), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 28%(+5).

If you took only those certain to vote the position would be even better for UKIP, putting them in first place on 34% to Labour’s 27% and the Conservatives in a distant third. Of course, that’s quite a harsh turnout filter and people are not necessarily very good at predicting turnout this far out (especially when it’s the same day as local elections) – the key point is that UKIP voters are significantly more likely to say they’ll turnout to vote in the European elections than supporters of the other three parties, which will benefit them to some extent.

While the poll suggests UKIP have benefited from the debate in terms of European election voting intention, it hasn’t moved attitudes to the EU at all (42% say they would vote to stay in, 37% to leave – almost unchanged from last week) and doesn’t seem to have had much effect on Westminster voting intentions either.

307 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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    “@ Carfrew I worked backwards from an income level of £30,000, which feels pretty middle-class to me (but I agree, the definition is more than a bit wobbly).

    Actually, the best off group extends further up the income scale, as the 80-100% group splits into two distinct sections in terms of impact: 80-95% has been very well insulated whereas 95%+ has (rightly) seen significant income reductions through the tax changes since 2008.”


    Indeed, one could try various definitions of middle… median wage, household income etc., and if one includes wealth not just income… but it will boil down to what Ed actually puts forward as policy, then we can see what his definition of middle is, and see how that compares with various analyses of who is struglling, or taking the bigger hit etc.

    In the end, it will probably have an eye on electoral impact, where the votes are… and probably won’t do much for storage costs…

  2. @STEVE

    “It might be nice if Our National Anthem had something about Britain in it.”


    Even then I fear, it would not happinate all. (Can definitely see the possibility of some Scots peeps complaining that they hadn’t been explicitly mentioned in every verse, and that it had not been made clear that not everything is quite the same in Scotland, for example…)

  3. @GuyMonde Thank you .. my mistake. Obviously, I had no intention to demote Mr Statgeek’s mother’s social standing.

    Unfortunately, good looks have been shown to impact positively on a many diverse aspects such as trustworthiness, length of prison sentence, wage remuneration etc. I can well believe that in lieu of other information attractiveness would be one of the factors determining electability.

    The difficulty for me, with respect to Ed Miliband, is that I don’t think that he is particularly peculiar looking… and I doubt if I’m alone. To me, he just looks like a pleasant 40y man… possibly a bit naive looking which adds an air of honesty.

    I sometimes wonder if there is a deliberate MSM policy to print the least appealing photograph for politicians. Ed Miliband’s are usually unflatteringly toothy but George Osborne and IDS have much more to complain about as their photos frequently make them look sinister or deranged.

  4. It seems to me that it is disposable income that will give you the ‘sought after’ label of middle class. If you own your own house (I mean truly own, not legally own) your outgoings are so little that a good lifestyle can be maintained on £15,000.

    It’s the mortgage interest that alters the entire picture.

  5. @HOWARD

    “It’s the mortgage interest that alters the entire picture.”


    Good point. I mean, we all know rates going up will have an impact, but your point is really that this may change the picture of how squeezed different people will be*. The “middle” may not be so squeezed now, but when rates go up?

    The polls ask about how people see their finances in a year’s time. Some may already be factoring in a rates hike, some not… a rates hike in a year is still unlikely, and some may not even be thinking about it.

    Since a significant rates hike could have quite the impact, it’d be quite handy if they could come up with a polling question to test how people think it’ll affect them, and by how much. And even when they think it is likely they will go up.

    One might like to know additionally how much credence people give to inflation figures, as opposed to their own experience of costs.

    (*That’s how it seemed to me anyway!!)

  6. Guardian letters:
    “Centuries ago all flour had by law, to be bought from the local mill. It was measured out using a standard container. If the person dispensing the flour held their thumb inside the container, this displaced a small amount which would eventually add up to an unearned profit. The extra portion was known as ” the miller’s thumb.””


    Well said.

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