The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is now out and shows the same sort of narrowing we’ve seen in other post-budget polls. Topline figures with changes from a fortnight ago are CON 32%(+2), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 15%(-1).

The only other poll I’m expecting overnight is the usual YouGov/Sunday Times poll.


141 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 32, LAB 33, LD 10, UKIP 15”

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  1. definitely narrowing polls. can’t see how that can be disputed. no crossover yet, which is interesting.

  2. Definitely narrowing. Mixture of improving economy, wage growth, standard of living etc, with a good budget.

  3. Wow, Labour’s lead has really shrunk of late.

    @ Billy Bob (from the previous thread)

    “Thanks for updating me about Henry Waxman. I looked on the web (and failed) to find a picture of him from back in 1969 when he first served in the state legislature, or even 1974 when he was elected to Congress.”

    Hmmmm. There are usually some photos available of him from those days (I have to say that he got better looking with age).

    It shocked me because while I realized he might retire within the decade, I thought he’d wait till at least 2016 or maybe 2018. He announced he was running for reelection the day before the lists of all Delegates to the California Democratic Party had to be finalized. By doing this, he avoided the unfortunate habit of certain politicians being able to grab the party’s endorsement simply by being well-connected to other politicians with the ability to appoint Delegates and ensured a fair fight.

    Perhaps owing to my grief over this whole thing, I decided to have a tribute made to him which I wore to the CDP Convention this year (he didn’t attend). Basically, I had a faux campaign t-shirt for him from the 1968 Primary made (complete with accurate election date and accurate Assembly District). But I did see him about almost two weeks ago in the South Bay at the Palos Verdes Democratic Club where he was speaking. He saw my shirt, immediately recognized what it said, and was very pleased (and hopefully touched).

    You know what’s really interesting about him and I’ve pointed out a few times on here? He grew up above his dad’s grocery store in a not so nice area of town. But somehow his politics went the other direction from another politician you’re all familiar with who has a similar story.

    “I see Wendy Greuel is one eleven Democrats hoping to get the nomination for his seat in June.”

    So yeah…….um here’s the deal with that. This decision of her’s to run for this seat was completely impulsive and not all that well thought out. She doesn’t live in the district or anywhere close to it, has never lived in the district (she might have if she went to UCLA), has never represented any part of the district legislatively. And actually, looking at the last Mayoral race, those parts of the City of Los Angeles that are within CA-33 all overwhelmingly voted against her.

    I’m good friends with her campaign manager and her campaign consultant and I find the whole thing emotionally charged but I’ve calmed down about it.

    Here’s something fascinating. All the people associated with Waxman and the “Waxman-Berman Machine” over the years and I mean ALL are backing her. I mean, I’m surprised by it because she doesn’t really come from that circle at all and generally, they all go off in different directions. I find it telling though.

    At the pre-convention endorsement caucus in February (which, Billy Bob, was one of the more depressing things I’ve ever been to), Greuel’s main rival, State Senator Ted Lieu, won over 70% of the votes cast by eligible CDP Delegates in order to win the California Democratic Party’s official endorsement outright (non-incumbents need 60% to win but should you get 70% at the pre-convention caucus, you’re endorsed). Wendy Greuel came in third place behind “No Endorsement.” Found it interesting that all of Henry’s appointed Delegates (including his best friend and closest political confidante going back to the early 1960’s when they were all students together at UCLA) voted for Wendy.

  4. @ Billy Bob

    Just had a comment of mine go into moderation. Check back for it later but responded to your prior post (in an overly long screed about CA-33). Good news though is that it reminded me of certain errands I need to take care of today.

  5. So is there anything Labour can do to stop this mini slide in the polls?

    It certainly is something for a Conservative supporter to cheer about after what seems a life time of +8 Labour leads. Any predictions of when or if a crossover will happen?

  6. @bluebob,

    Hopefully the crossover will occur if we get another strong quarter of employment growth.

    Rich

  7. Crossover any time now I think – but before that I expect to see a few ties on perhaps 35 or 36% – but will it be this coming week ? – exciting times for poll watchers!

  8. It is indeed Sine

    I must admit to being a tad excited at the prospect of a long, tight race till may 2015.

  9. This must mean: ‘others:10’

    Isn’t that rather a lot for a General election ?

  10. Crossover… I expect one any day due to move. A sustained crossover? Will depend, maybe with more good (from the government’s point of view) economic news. Maybe even news of a MOE crossover might create it’s own momentum.

    @blueblob

    A comprehensive set of popular policies might help them?

  11. If this was the result at the General Election it would be disaster for all three main parties. Everyone knows that the days of 97% of people voting for the two main parties are over but who would have thought Labour and the Tory vote combined would be scraping two-thirds of the electorate. The Lib Dems losing half their support in just one parliament would also be a disaster.

    But if we get either main party winning an overall majority with just a third of the votes then it will not be great for democracy. I know Labour had just over 35% in 2005, but look how that worked out – terribly. Our current democratic system is fast approaching the point where it is totally broken. That isn’t the fault of one party but all of the three main parties and the media. The media need to take a long hard look at itself. I laughed when Peter Bone complained that the newspapers printed untruths about his recent case, even when he pointed out they were untrue. This has been going on for decades in the UK!

    Our democracy needs radical urgent change. Traditionally I’ve been no fan of direct democracy but I’m starting to change my mind. At least then the public won’t have the excuse that they never get consulted.

    Worrying times.

  12. @ SoCaL

    Welcome back. Jim Murphy was out & about at the Labour Party’s Scottish Conference last weekend – if you’d been there you would definitely have got to meet him.

    Maybe next year…. :-)

  13. @BigD

    The problem is that the only people with the power to introduce a new system are those who’ve just gained power under the old one.

  14. BigD

    “all of the three main parties” is a somewhat inappropriate description of the very broken Westminster system.

  15. @RogerH

    You’re right.

    @OldNat

    What do you mean?

  16. Most interesting things over coming months will be how things change in the labour party – hasn’t been much sniping or in-fighting recently as they’ve been ahead in the polls. Now the nerves will kick in and discipline less likely to hold.

    Add to that the common trend for incumbent governments picking up votes as you get nearer an election and it doesn’t look good for Lab

    PS. Is the summary table of polls on the right of the website going to be updated?

  17. Here is a chart of the YG data by 2010 party ID from Mon to Fri this week vs all of last week.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDSVVCZTVFdnlFZGs/edit?usp=sharing

    The results are weighted to represent the amount of current VI it represents.

    Labour have certainly softened all round a smidgeon, and the Conservatives have been boosted Of course the handicap of opposition is that you can only really react. If things are running okay, and the Government doesn’t do something silly, then it can be hard to make an impact as the official opposition.

  18. BigD

    There really aren’t “main parties” any more – except in the sense that some parties have used an outmoded electoral system to keep themselves in seats.

    The two biggest English parties can only attract around a third of support each, and it’s questionable how solid that support for them actually is.

    When so many of the public clearly have contempt for politicians, it’s unwise for politicians to show contempt for the people by pretending that any FPTP win is a “mandate”.

  19. I reckon we could see the YG ST, as Con 35%, Lab 35%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 11%

    Not sure why the Lab vote has collapsed a little. There was a negative reaction to Ed Milibands budget response, but I am not sure this was the reason.

    I have no doubt that the Tories have picked up a little due to the pension change in the budget. Even if people are not due to receive their pension for years, they will like the change of giving people choice.

  20. “So is there anything Labour can do to stop this mini slide in the polls?”

    I don’t think so. Labour won’t win a majority next year IMO, but a coalition with the LDs is a strong possibility.

  21. @Adam

    The incumbent government isn’t seeking re-election, its contituent parties are – an not as a Coalition either. So I’m not sure the pull back of support often enjoyed by incumbent governments in the year before elections is relevant here.

    For example, it the LDs are boosted by this phenomenon in the South, but not in the North, that will hurt the Tories and help Labour, as the LDs cling on to LD/Con marginals.

  22. @Andy JS

    Not with Clegg or Alexander it isn’t!

  23. @Adam
    ‘Add to that the common trend for incumbent governments picking up votes as you get nearer an election and it doesn’t look good for Lab’

    That does not always happen . Labour would have done significantly better in Spring 1978 than at the General Election a year later. It is also the case that more often than not the incumbent tends to lose ground during the election campaign proper – perhaps because the opposition will receive equal exposure. On that basis, the Tories are likely to fare less well in May 2015 than a month earlier.

  24. game over then Tory victory in 2015. :-(

  25. Good Evening All.
    Lovely day here.

    Is it possible to have a list of contributors who have been proven right about the swing back to the Cons please?

  26. @Blue Bob “So is there anything Labour can do to stop this mini slide in the polls?”

    Wait.
    This does appear to be a budget thing, and therefore could be temporary (although can’t hurt the long term economic recovery slowly helping the cons)….and the EUs & locals will be interesting.

    Hard to see how the EUs will play out & be spun, but it’s probably cons more worried than lab…

    Locals will probably be a winner for lab & UKIP, loser for cons & lib…though as so many of the seats are lab anyway, that won’t be hard for cons to portray as “ofc lab doing well in lab seats, no story here”.

  27. @AndyJS

    “So is there anything Labour can do to stop this mini slide in the polls?”

    I don’t think so. Labour won’t win a majority next year IMO, but a coalition with the LDs is a strong possibility.

    You simply cannot tell. There will be further ups and downs before 2015. It looks too close call IMO.

  28. “It looks too close call IMO.”

    My (very vague & I wouldn’t bet a penny on it) prediction at this stage is a repeat…cons biggest but not majority.

  29. Chrislane1945,

    I’d not be on it, in that I predicted a swingback later. This new poll, if it were identical in percentages to what happens in May 2015, would also prove me wrong in that it wouldn’t give Labour a decent (10-30 seats) majority, as I predict.

    However, I still expect the polls to widen in Labour’s favour as UKIP pick up Tories when they get a lot of coverage during the GE. I also think that the persistence of austerity is going to mean that we won’t see a lot of the driftback towards the government that has occurred in the past- there’s no money left, and so giveaways (either in the form of targeted tax-cuts or targeted spending binges) will not be an option.

    So I continue to expect Prime Minister Miliband, and for Labour to be able to govern on their own until 2020, assuming we vote “naw” in September,

  30. At the moment it appears close but, trends suggest that a crossover could occur next month and, when we arrive at GE2015, a significant lead to assure a Con majority.

  31. Fewer than eight weeks until elections in which the Tories and LibDems are likely to do poorly relative to last time, with Labour gaining in the locals and UKIP in the Euros. Not that it’ll translate into 2015 votes but it’ll be interesting to see how the parties react.

  32. Labour on 33% is what the Tories must hope for to be the largest party, assuming they won’t increase their vote on last time…

  33. @BarryP: “trends suggest that a crossover could occur next month and, when we arrive at GE2015, a significant lead to assure a Con majority”

    I suspect you’re confusing your preference with a trend. Whatever else happens the Tories and LibDems are likely to do worse in 2015 than in 2010 while Labour and UKIP perform better.

  34. Also, it’s only 4% away from Labour LOSING ground from 2010. Which, with numbers like 29-31-10, would put Labour in position to be the largest party! Labour really have to mess up in an astonishing way not to “win” in 2015, insofar as the Tories “won” in 2010.

  35. This takes me back to the ‘almost a veto’ bounce. ;-)

  36. Am I the only one on here who is amazed at the statistical improbability of so many one point leads over the last week- especially as they come in all shapes and sizes?

  37. Shevii,

    Even variance among samples is a case where you can’t infer from its prevalence in the population to its prevalence in a small sample (of samples). And we’ve had a fair few 2% leads during the period as well, so there’s an element of confirmation bias.

  38. (Assuming the prevalence is not 100% e.g. if all the balls in the urn are red, then all the balls of a sample will be red.)

  39. Or 0%, of course, but now I’m getting abstract.

  40. Awful lot of barbecues being planned tonight on the basis of a single swallow.

  41. postageincluded

    Barbecued swallow sounds a somewhat esoteric dish.

  42. And quite insufficient to meet even one person’s appetite.

  43. If this tightening is really a trend it will be interesting to see what will happen to the Scottish referendum polls. I suspect the yes vote will rise further.

  44. RogerH and Bill Patrick,

    One should not assume that Cons cannot increase upon their 2010 share of the vote in 2015. We have already seen two polls in the past week at 36%, and! were a crossover to occur, it is likely to be at 36-37%.

    Though I do agree it is likely that LDs will fall back from 2010, again, we should not assume that their vote will collapse or that they will be reduced to a score of seats or fewer.

    There is a third factor which used to be discussed extensively on this site but hardly rates a mention these days. That is that the swing calculator and seat predictions are based on UNS. There are several reasons why UNS is not a good guide to the outcome of the next election, and one should not assume that a close result in terms of votes will deliver Lab a majority, even if they do manage more seats per vote (or more accurately, fewer votes per MP) than Conservatives.

    I can think of at least three significant factors that will upset UNS, and none of those are partisan. There could be a few others, at least two of which will depend on the outcome of elections later this year.

    In my view it would be imprudent to predict today the outcome of the GE, whether in terms of votes, seats or coalitions.

  45. Paul H-J
    “I can think of at least three significant factors that will upset UNS, and none of those are partisan.”

    In which case why not expand and discuss?

    Or are we merely to fall down and worship the Word?

  46. @Wood

    ‘My (very vague & I wouldn’t bet a penny on it) prediction at this stage is a repeat…cons biggest but not majority.’

    Agreed, but perhaps with Lab and Lib Dem with sufficient seats this time to form a coalition

  47. @Old Nat
    You’d prefer yours boiled in sheep’s stomach I suppose.

  48. postageincluded

    To suggest to an Aberdonian that he should actually cook part of a loved one is excessively objectionable!

  49. Shevii

    “Am I the only one on here who is amazed at the statistical improbability of so many one point leads over the last week ..”

    No you’re not! What happened to MOE? Do all these polls happen to be bang on the ‘true’ figure with no MOE? Or, are the figures all over the place but MOE just happens to bring them all back to 1% lead? How odd!

    Wasn’t Labour on 39% in one poll some 7 to 10 days ago?

  50. Labour was on 37% yesterday with Populus.

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