I’ve been entrenched in preparing Nick v Nigel debate polling (more on that later) for the last couple of day, but in the meantime there have been two new Scottish referendum polls.

The new YouGov poll in the Times this morning continues the recent trend of movement towards the YES camp. Topline figures are YES 37%(+2), NO 52%(-1), equating to to 42/58 split once don’t knows and won’t says are removed. YouGov tend to show one of the bigger NO leads, but the trend is there. Looking at the longer term figures from each company, back in September YouGov had YES at 38%, 39% in December and January, 40% in February, now 42% in March. YES have got a lot of catching up, progress is slow and there’s not that long to go, but the movement is there. Tabs for the new YouGov poll are here.

The second poll from TNS BMRB is contrasting, but is actually rather less new – fieldwork finished on the 9th March (I assume the long gap between fieldwork and publication for TNS polls is something to do with their face-to-face fieldwork, but it still seems to take a long time. Even face-to-face fieldwork these days is done on a laptop, so it’s not like lots of data needs to be collated by hand). Topline figures there are YES 28%(-1), NO 42%(nc). No continuation of the trend towards yes there.


70 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS Scottish polls”

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  1. “A straight up two-way debate won’t go down well with the deputy prime minister, but frankly there’s not a thing he can do about it.”

    OfCOM might beg to differ.

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  2. If UKIP come first in the European Elections what will Ofcom’s attitude be to his appeal for inclusion in the pre-2015 GE debates?

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  3. A straight Dave vs. Ed debate wouldn’t have to be broadcast on TV, which I agree would breach OfCom’s guidelines. One cursory debate with Clegg for “Inclusion” and they could hold the rest online, far out of OfCom’s reach.

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  4. @Alec

    I’ll refer you to:

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/19/england-lights-scotland-renewable-energy

    (I’ll take a guess that you might have read it)

    Comment:

    “CarefulReader
    19 March 2014 4:43pm
    Recommend 145

    This is all cheap shots from both sides, so it’s useless to even have an opinion on them.”

    That pretty much sums it up.

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  5. If Clegg gets in via some Ofcom issue, so does Farage (and probably so does Salmond, or a leading SNP Westminster MP).

    People might want to debate what validates one inclusion versus another. Personally, the more the merrier, and it makes British Politics all the better, if more voices are heard.

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  6. Anthony,

    The tabs just give a list of polls not the breakdown of this actual poll.

    Sorry if that sounds picky, I know your having a busy night.

    Peter.

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  7. Statgeek “Personally, the more the merrier, and it makes British Politics all the better, if more voices are heard.”

    Couldn’t agree with you more!

    A 5-way debate (Con.Lab.LD.UKIP.SNP/PC) would be fascinating as it would provide all the major different visions for Britain.

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  8. Anthony

    Will you have time to look at the weighting questions that I raised upthread?

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  9. New thread (and I’m about to post my debate thoughts on there).

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  10. Alec

    At the cost of 500 jobs, reduced profitability and the loss of future investment in energy generation. So pleasing in the short term for SSE customers but not the shareholders although I suspect that you don’t care about them.

    “Ed’s rather fantastic play” or gimmick depending on your point of view.

    SSE in the statement gave credit to the Government.

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  11. TOH

    Exactly right.

    I thought it was a highly political move & statement by SSE

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  12. Colin

    The financial, energy and consumer regulators have spent the last three months reviewing the workings of the energy market and are expected to publish a final report tomorrow. A fuller Government backed investigation by the CMA is likely to follow and some are speculating that SSE are just pre-empting this.

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  13. I’d still love to know more of the importance of the issue for the average voter.

    I see all Yes people definitely turning out but I’m not convinced there is the same passion for the No vote… (What, influenced by the whinging day trippers from Westminster? Dont you like the Scottish football team? etc….)

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  14. GE debates?

    Define the terms. It’s either those who could be PM or could be king makers, or leaders of political parties with seats in Westminster

    GIven UKIP dont even have seat in Westminster why on earth would anyone give the fruitloops space on the platform?

    Certainly if I was Labour / Conservative / LD there is no way I’d bother being on a platform with a one trick pony party like UKIP.

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  15. “Define the terms. It’s either those who could be PM or could be king makers, or leaders of political parties with seats in Westminster”

    Ofcom decides which count as ‘major’ parties for particular elections (but not for the BBC, which is regulated by the BBC Trust, although it’ll probably adopt the same guidance):

    http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/broadcast/guidance/major-parties.pdf

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  16. One thing I don’t quite get Anthony. If these were political polls you might well regard this small increase as random fluctuation with all the usual caveats mightn’t you? The figures of increase for Yes are not large and they are not corroborated by many polls. So why is everyone flagging a shift to Yes of a few points as such a huge thing. I would say it looks a lot less worth our attention than the contracting of national political polls but we are constantly (and rightly) told here to disregard these. Are these fluctuations within the margin of error? Or not?

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  17. john – look at the article on longer term trends I link to in the post.

    Individually, none of the polls are showing big enough shifts to be confident. The wider trend though looks like a consistent, slow, trend towards YES.

    Only slow mind, and there isn’t that long to go, and there’s no guarantee it will continue (its more common for opinion in referendum campaigns to move towards the status quo), but time will tell.

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  18. The Scottish trend is not unexpected as ‘Don’t Knows’ start splitting and in this case very gradually towards YES which still lies in the margin of error and certainly not sufficient to win. This sort of solidifying of opinions without major fluctuations is bad news for Salmond as there just isn’t enough swings happening for him. .

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  19. Anthony

    I know most of the posts on here aren’t about polling! But my questions upthread were, and I’d really appreciate any explanation you can give about YouGov’s weighting.

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