I’ve been entrenched in preparing Nick v Nigel debate polling (more on that later) for the last couple of day, but in the meantime there have been two new Scottish referendum polls.
The new YouGov poll in the Times this morning continues the recent trend of movement towards the YES camp. Topline figures are YES 37%(+2), NO 52%(-1), equating to to 42/58 split once don’t knows and won’t says are removed. YouGov tend to show one of the bigger NO leads, but the trend is there. Looking at the longer term figures from each company, back in September YouGov had YES at 38%, 39% in December and January, 40% in February, now 42% in March. YES have got a lot of catching up, progress is slow and there’s not that long to go, but the movement is there. Tabs for the new YouGov poll are here.
The second poll from TNS BMRB is contrasting, but is actually rather less new – fieldwork finished on the 9th March (I assume the long gap between fieldwork and publication for TNS polls is something to do with their face-to-face fieldwork, but it still seems to take a long time. Even face-to-face fieldwork these days is done on a laptop, so it’s not like lots of data needs to be collated by hand). Topline figures there are YES 28%(-1), NO 42%(nc). No continuation of the trend towards yes there.