There are two new voting intention polls tonight, ComRes in the Indy and YouGov in the Sun (tweeted by the Sun Politics team here).

The YouGov/Sun figures show another small Labour lead, CON 36%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. This comes after the Labour lead shrinking to one point in YouGov’s weekend poll for the Sunday Times.

The ComRes/Indy poll on the other hand has figures of CON 31%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 11%(nc). Compared to last month’s poll it does actually show Labour’s lead falling by three points, but that may just be because last month’s lead was a bit larger than usual. The average lead in ComRes telephone polls over the last nine months is five points – just like today’s.

So where does that leave us? Well, the reality is that because polls have a margin of error the messages will usually be a bit contradictory, that’s why it’s best to wait a bit and look at the averages. The Populus, Survation and YouGov polls do suggest a reduced lead, ComRes doesn’t. Even if there is one, it doesn’t mean it will last. Time will tell.


366 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. @ Oldnat
    “As an Aberdeen supporter . . ”

    The concept of supporting a whole City is touching if slightly eccentric. Does yr support extend to Barney “Rubble” Crockett.

  2. @Anne in Wales

    Back in the Dark Ages “Ancient History” was just “History”!

  3. For the lefties who are comforting themselves on the apparent unwinding of the Budget bounce.

    Yes. Well.

    Trouble is, in 13 months time, we’ll be in a campaign in which mini bounces will be the order of the day. The party that can grab attention, even with p*ss and wind that means nothing in the long run could well gain the crucial 2-3% at the crucial time.

    For fear of moderation, I won’t say which politician among the current lot I see as the master of concocting an eye-catching Faberge Egg that melts away in the spotlight of attention. Suffice to say that he’s not in Opposition right now. And that is why the Opposition should take note of bounces like we’ve seen over the past week, and not console themselves if this one fades over the next fortnight.

  4. Just read up on Wikipedia about 1950 and 1951 GEs.
    Apropos of 1951 (Lab having a majority of 5 at the time) Wiki says:

    “Attlee had decided to call the election after the King’s concerns over leaving the country to go on his Commonwealth tour in 1952 with a government that had such a slim majority.”

    Perhaps Madge may have similar concerns in 2016, given the way things may be going?

  5. @MrNameless

    “There was a significant Labour Gain tonight – I was elected the new Games Editor for Forge Press, the student paper!”

    Congratulations, although I have to tell you that a Dalek was once voted in as President of the Birmingham University Students Union in the 1980s!

    Mind you, I’m told that he was one of the better holders of that office, although his attempts to exterminate the Vice Chancellor led to his eventual downfall!

  6. For the lefties who are comforting themselves on the apparent unwinding of the Budget bounce.

    Yes. Well.

    Trouble is, in 13 months time, we’ll be in a campaign in which mini bounces will be the order of the day. The party that can grab attention, even momentarily, could well gain the crucial 2-3% at the crucial time.

    For fear of the Mod Hammer I won’t say which politician among the current lot I see as the master of concocting an eye-catching Faberge Egg that melts away in the spotlight of attention. Suffice to say that he’s not in Opposition right now. And that is why the Opposition should take note of bounces like we’ve seen over the past week, and not console themselves if this one fades over the next fortnight.

  7. Wow. I’ve just gone into moderation with a post in which I avowedly tried to avoid moderation.

    I wonder what upset the auto-mod?

  8. Faberge Eggs?

  9. Budget bounce?

  10. @CB11

    Lolling quite a bit at the dalek story.

    UN-ACC-US-TOM-ED AS I AM TO GIV-ING SPEE-CHES…

  11. Ha! Got it. It was “Left!es”

  12. Right. This time.

    For the leftees who are comforting themselves on the apparent unwinding of the Budget bounce.

    Yes. Well.

    Trouble is, in 13 months time, we’ll be in a campaign in which mini bounces will be the order of the day. The party that can grab attention, even momentarily, could well gain the crucial 2-3% at the crucial time.

    For fear of the Mod Hammer I won’t say which politician among the current lot I see as the master of concocting an eye-catching Faberge Egg that melts away in the spotlight of attention. Suffice to say that he’s not on the Opposition benches.

    And that is why the Opposition should take note of bounces like we’ve seen over the past week, and not console themselves if this one fades over the next fortnight.

  13. Is a fixed term effect likely? Let’s ask the professionals.
    Anthony, did YG at any time even consider changing from ‘which Party would you vote for in a GE tomorrow’ to something along the lines of: ‘which Party are you most likely to vote for in the 2015 GE?’

  14. @Lefty L

    “I wonder what upset the auto-mod?”

    You didn’t mention Manchester United, did you?

  15. Other interesting terms that set off auto mod include a certain Telegraph columnist who “writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation.”

  16. RobbieAlive

    “The concept of supporting a whole City is touching if slightly eccentric.”

    Fortunately, the city is adequately supported by large amounts of granite (and the added benefit of radon gas filled cellars).

    That last comment should not be read in any connection with the fate of our own Barney.

    Indeed, your suggestion that his leadership has reduced the current administration to “rubble” as its senior officials flee the city, is wholly reprehensible.

    Some things, however true, are still reprehensible.

  17. @Lefty Lampton

    The Mod Hammer? Is that some bizzare hybrid of mop top hair and seriously oversized baggy trousers?

  18. @Mr Nameless

    To date, “Glenda’s lad” doesn’t.

    That may be tempting fate though.

  19. @MRNAMELESS

    “There was a significant Labour Gain tonight – I was elected the new Games Editor for Forge Press, the student paper!”

    ———

    Always remember your true allegiance… you are UKPR’s man on the inside at Forge Press… the Labour thing’s just a cover…

  20. @Lefty

    “Trouble is, in 13 months time, we’ll be in a campaign in which mini bounces will be the order of the day. The party that can grab attention, even momentarily, could well gain the crucial 2-3% at the crucial time.”

    —–

    Yep, when an election’s close, small, temporary, frothy gains can matter. A while back I offered the idea that this could apply to UKip, since people say they get a boost due to publicity around elections but then fall back after. Of course, in a GE, if they fall back straight after, the votes are already cast…

  21. Seems that YouGov have a new Macbethian poll showing a similar shift from No to Yes that other pollsters have ben suggesting in 2014.

    No doubt, Anthony will provide a thread for its discussion.

  22. OldNat

    Presumably alongside the one in the Scotsman on 25/3 which shows 28% Yes and 42% No ?

    I’m all in favour of threads to the devolved countries – provided AW allocates them via PR in approximate proportion to the poll-able population. Which would be 1 in 10 for you and I’m afraid 1 in 20 for us Dragons/ Druids.

    If you’ve used up your quota for 2014 or indeed longer …well, sorry !

    Which is a long-winded way of saying many of us are a bit b-o-r-e-d by the referendum ;-)

  23. This independence thing is doing my head in, am I correct in thinking the direction of travel is towards the yes campaign or not?

    I so hope Scotland goes independent in 2015

  24. “Presumably alongside the one in the Scotsman on 25/3 which shows 28% Yes and 42% No ?”

    Although published on the 25th, the fieldwork was considerably older. A different poll published earlier but with more recent fieldwork, gave YES 39%

    If we measure rise or fall by the date of publication, then we would call this a fall of 11%. If we go by when the survey was conducted, then it indicates a rise!

    This ‘rise’ being confirmed, apparently, by the new YouGov poll.

  25. I am not bored by the Scottish debate, merely depressed by it. As ‘an ancestral Scot’ I do not wish to sever the connection. However, it seems clear to me that the Scots could do perfectly well on their own and that they are therefore unlikely to be convinced by attempts to scare them into sticking with the devil they know. I would like a more positive vision of what we can do together, just as I would like a more positive stance from the Labour party. Maybe a downside of opinion polls is that they lull the side in the lead into thinking that the only thing necessary for them to win is to avoid making mistakes.

  26. Labour seems to have suffered a collective loss of will over the front bench decision to vote for Osborne’s welfare cap. A really poor decision and it deserves to be pilloried for it. YouGov’s “it seems to chop and change all the time you can’t tell what it stands for anymore” question might capture some of the reaction. I would certainly now switch to answering “yes” to that myself, now that I’m no longer confident that Labour has really moved back closer to its traditional values.

    Leaving aside the lousy principle of voting lock stock and barrel for a cap defined by Osborne and at a level set by Osborne, it is really poor politics. Is Labour still against the bedroom tax and if so what benefit would it cut instead to keep within the cap if it were to remove it? And a more confident opposition could have had a field day with the implications of all those pensioner benefits and child benefits for example having been defined within the cap, so there’s a huge lost opportunity there as well.

    I hope that there’s a huge backbench rebellion on this one.

  27. BTW this morning’s gap seems to be a genuine 3%, that is an unrounded 3.2%.

    Con 34.7%
    Lab 37.9%
    LD 10.4%
    UKIP 10.2%

  28. @ OldNat

    “Seems that YouGov have a new Macbethian poll ”

    No- it was a Mancunian poll:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/21/manchester-football/

    Not sure who paid for that but money well spent- 28% of Man U fans living in the North West- thought it would be lower. Probably not strictly weighted though.

    @ Postageincluded (from yesterday) thanks for giving me a reason for withheld numbers. Not conclusive given the grief withheld numbers cause but fair enough.

  29. @Phil Haines

    I wonder if the recent narrowing of the lead has led to Labour backing off from a benefit cap fight? I too am disappointed in that decision.

  30. I see SSE are freezing their prices until 2016, in line with Mr Millibands idea? About time, unless, of course, you are one of the 500 people they are going to lay off to cover it? Let’s hope for another ‘bounce’ from that one.

  31. Charles
    “At the moment I find it very hard to say what the Labour party wants to do (rather easier perhaps to say what it does not want to do). A supine acceptance that it was responsible for a worldwide economic crash seems to have been reinforced by polls showing that the public regard them as economically incompetent.”
    I know you want a Labour victory but I think you have summed up the current position very well. If nothing else the Budget has reinforced the view of a majority of voters that the Government is significantly more economically competent than the opposition.
    Leftylampton
    “For fear of the Mod Hammer I won’t say which politician among the current lot I see as the master of concocting an eye-catching Faberge Egg that melts away in the spotlight of attention. Suffice to say that he’s not on the Opposition benches.
    And that is why the Opposition should take note of bounces like we’ve seen over the past week, and not console themselves if this one fades over the next fortnight.”
    Exactly another of the many reasons why I made the prediction on the result of the next GE that I have.

  32. Intriguing Poll this morning.

    We will see whether the gap drifts back to 5 ish-or stays below it.

    Approval still below -20.

    Times quotes a YouGov Poll for them this morning which will not make good reading for supporters of an EM Premiership.

  33. couper2802

    Not saying a benefit cap is right or wrong, but the fact that labour will not oppose It just adds to the momentum of the Government is more competent argument.

  34. “@ couper2802

    @Phil Haines

    I wonder if the recent narrowing of the lead has led to Labour backing off from a benefit cap fight? I too am disappointed in that decision.”

    Does not include JSA and pensions. The cap will be increased by rate of inflation. Therefore the amount of money within the cap should cover benefits that people need. There are also savings that could be made. If ATOS are looking to end their contract, perhaps Labour brings this back in house, with NHS GP’s making decisions over fitness to work.

    There is a danger that people on the Labour side will start to panic about reducing polls and believe the media that voters in polls don’t see Ed Miliband as a PM. Labour have got a lot of work to do, but so have the the other parties. The Lib Dems and Tories will have to uncouple the coalition when the election period starts. There will be arguments between the parties and no doubt leaks about arguments between them. The 2015 election is going to be a bit different to previous elections, as UKIP will have a much bigger profile.

  35. That SSE move will allow Labour to claim an impact from the opposition benches, and also suggests that claims prices would be inflated before the election were bogus. It’s a win for Ed, but whether it is seen as such by voters is more doubtful.

    I note some concern from Lab supporters regarding the support of the benefit cap. I would suggest that they don’t really have a realistic option, if they actually want a shot at power. What’s the alternative? Supporting open ended commitments on welfare leaves you wide open to attack, and is presentationally a very tough move to pull off. It’s a big risk, for what? Something you don’t actually want to see happen anyway (rising welfare costs). I don’t really see where the trade off is, frankly.

    One of Blair’s best moments was when he told his conference that having a high welfare bill was not the mark of a progressive government – it was a mark of failure. The Labour left needs to be challenged on this, and given the electoral circumstances, the idea of sticking to a welfare cap is on balance a better policy, in my view.

  36. Re the EM PM question. I can’t see it being particularly relevant. I can’t see Labour DKs plumping for the Tories just because they thing Cameron a better leader.

  37. @Leftylampton – I can’t agree with your assessment about who is better at pulling out Faberge Eggs. To date, the best, most eye catching and biggest impact (both on VI and long term) has been from Ed himself (energy price freeze).

    This surprise announcement is still making the political weather now. It jump started the ‘cost of living crisis’ meme that has formed the entire basis of political discourse for six months now, and completely changed the political dynamic.

    By contrast, the annuities announcement is not now being discussed, less than a week later.

    I think it would be extremely dangerous for any politician or poll watcher to assume that the Tories have the best tactical players. They don’t, in my view.

    As I said last night, I actually think they’ve done Labour a favour with the annuity move, and Labour’s pointy heads are already thinking about how they could use this to craft a much more useful and coherent response. Osborne has done the heavy lifting on a problem Labour were reluctant to touch, but he’s done it in a way that brings no real benefit to voters, and a good deal of risk.

    Labour are now looking for ways to use this to much better effect, and I suspect that Tories will in due course wish their man actually thought about things other than the next days poll numbers.

  38. Alec

    Surprise, surprise, we disagree.

  39. CHARLES

    @” A supine acceptance that it was responsible for a world wide economic crash ”

    I haven’t heard a Labour spokesperson accept that. It would be silly if they did.

    They were responsible for the lack of effective regulation & oversight which allowed the Banking Crisis to hit with such force. But they weren’t responsible for the Credit crisis which precipitated it.

    However, they were responsible for their spending record when in government after their two year adherance to the outgoing Tories’ plans.
    A record which shows a steady increase in spending as a share of GDP-all with deficit funding .

    http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5326/economics/government-spending/

    We now know that this programme was predicated on economic growth , and the prospects of future growth, which were totally flawed & illusory .
    They could of course argue that they didn’t know this-but they would need to explain why if so.

    It is their record of spending which puts them at a disadvantage in the voters’s eyes, not their record as Bank Regulators , I think.

    And if you listened to Paul Johnson & his excellent number two in front of the Treasury Select Committee yesterday-or if you have read their most recent Green Budget, you might be inclined to hope that Labour don’t win the next GE.

    The Public Finances will not be fixed by 2015-not by a long chalk.

  40. @MrNameless
    “There was a significant Labour Gain tonight – I was elected the new Games Editor for Forge Press, the student paper!”
    Congratulations, although I have to tell you that a Dalek was once voted in as President of the Birmingham University Students Union in the 1980s!
    Mind you, I’m told that he was one of the better holders of that office, although his attempts to exterminate the Vice Chancellor led to his eventual downfall!

    -I was a beardy lefty in the early 80’s but now I EXFOLIATE!

  41. Will be interesting to see how much pressure comes on EM now from within his own party – things are easy when the polls are good but get prickly when polls come under pressure

    Labour are behind in the two main determinants of elections (Economy and Leadership) and cant see them gaining on the Tories in either area over the next 12 months

  42. ALEC

    @”It’s a win for Ed, but whether it is seen as such by voters is more doubtful.”

    Well I think the second bit is true.

    Anyone with the slightest familiarity with the market for their energy costs knows that fixed price deals have been available as a matter of course in this market, from most suppliers.

  43. Colin

    “The Public Finances will not be fixed by 2015-not by a long chalk.”

    Nicely put Colin. Whoever wins the next GE will have to continue to impose austerity for at least the whole of the next Parliament.

  44. Alec

    “@TOH – what – you don’t support the benefit cap?”

    My reply to couper2802 was intended to be impartial. My response to you was in respect of your comments to Lefty.

  45. TOH

    It isn’t going to be another 2001/2007 in the next Parliament.

    That is for sure.

  46. @Adam

    They key economic indicator is whether people believe their own financial position will improve in the near future. At present less than 20% do.

  47. @Lefty L

    “And that is why the Opposition should take note of bounces like we’ve seen over the past week, and not console themselves if this one fades over the next fortnight.”

    You make a fair point and highlight one of the advantages of incumbency, especially if you time an election six weeks after a budget! I’d add a couple of provisos though. To be re-elected, I think a government usually has to generate some voter well-being, the legendary feel-good factor, quite a long way ahead of an election campaign if they’re going to avoid appearing pretty desperate and flaky when they chuck surprise goodies around at the last minute; especially if they’ve predicated their economic credentials on continuing to cut public spending and reduce the deficit well until the next Parliament.

    The second proviso is this. In this Tory-centric world of political commentary, it’s often easy to swallow hook line and sinker the drumbeat message of why the Tories must win and Labour must lose. It’s called the “101 reasons why the the Tories will win”; and a new chapter is trotted out most weeks in a multiplicity of media outlets. But, remember, we don’t live in a world where all that matters are what the Tories do; opposition parties have advantages and cards to play too that can alter the electoral landscape. Osborne and Cameron aren’t playing against fools here; they’re up against a party that’s got some serious recent election winning form. As Alec has already alluded to, I can see all sorts of gambits being played over the next 12 months, some of which may well wrong foot the Tories.

    Should be fun!

  48. Hi RAF – very understandable that that figure is 20% at the moment as, in keeping with all recoveries, it takes a while for things to feed through. Its difficult to see how that figure will be the same in 12 months time – forgetting macro items and focussing at the personal level you have inflation dropping, wages increasing, unemployment dropping, house prices rising. The timing of the election looks to be great for the Coalation and rubbish for labour

  49. RAF

    “They key economic indicator is whether people believe their own financial position will improve in the near future. At present less than 20% do.”

    I agree and have said the same thing many times before. However the question is what will that percentage be in May 2015.

  50. crossbat11

    “In this Tory-centric world of political commentary, it’s often easy to swallow hook line and sinker the drumbeat message of why the Tories must win and Labour must lose.”

    but if the voters believe it………………..?

    “Should be fun”

    Indeed.

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