Survation have a post-budget poll in the Mail on Sunday tomorrow with topline voting intention figures of CON 34%(+4), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 9%(-3), UKIP 15%(-3). Changes are from their Sky News poll in January.

The one point Labour lead is the smallest Survation have shown since 2011 and Cameron’s bounce from the Europe “veto”. As ever, don’t get too excited over one poll: it may be a budget reaction, or it may be normal variation within the margin of error. Wait till we see some more polling before jumping to judgement, we should still have at least the YouGov/Sunday Times this weekend (as well as a Scottish ICM poll).

UPDATE: That was quick, the front page of the Sunday Times appears to show the weekly YouGov poll reporting the Conservatives on 36% and Labour on 37%. Presumably we’ll have to wait until tomorrow morning to see the full details of the poll.


120 Responses to “Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 34, LAB 35, LD 9, UKIP 15”

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  1. However this is spun it must be disappointing for Milliband that so far out from an Election the Opposition lead is draining away.. He should have moved Ed Balls when he could a year or so ago.

  2. Is ICM in Scotland on Sunday?

    Any word on the referendum YES/NO?

  3. Just in case you all think I’m playing deliberately hard to get on the YouGov poll there, I wasn’t in the office on Friday so I haven’t actually seen the full figures.

  4. Well well well.

  5. “Conservatives on 36% and Labour on 37% (the text is a bit fuzzy, it could be Conservatives 35%, but either way it is another one point Labour lead)”

    err… not quite!

  6. Wes – I mean, the text on the ST says Conservatives on 36%(?), and Labour one point ahead, so it’s either 36/37 or 35/36. But everyone else seems to be reading it as 36, so it’s probably just my ropey eyesight.

  7. Ah – apologies. Thanks for your patience in explaining that! (I dined well…)

  8. Wes – it is 36% anyway (Nick Sutton who will actually have said front page tweeted me to confirm)

  9. I think the general messages on the economy were both quite transparent (eg the figures and the bits about the years ahead) and spoke well of the Government’s stewardship. Things were put quite clearly and spoke of competence as well as imparting confidence.

    I think this is all mood music – obviously partly undone by Miliband’s robust (I thought) but stale response – that actually subconsciously changes views (and votes) more than the specific measures that have been polled on showing clear support. imho.

  10. Sorry, my post just now referring to GO’s budget on Wednesday.

    Be interesting to see if Gov approval shows any change beyond m.o.e.

  11. Too late on the ‘don’t get excited bit….’

    ‘When are the polls going to be neck and neck?’ HQ just went into Meltdown!

    It’s coming this week – surely?

  12. The puzzle of the Tory vote continues. How can a party, nearly four years into its austerity programme, with a hardly smooth sail through the parliament, and a new rival party full of energy, be only a few points below its vote % in the last election? The polling averages for the Tories are starting to go beyond what they were in 2005.

    (The improving economy doesn’t seem sufficient to me, as overall the recovery has been slow and growth is rapid only relative to the dismal performance of the 2008-2012 period. Nor does Miliband’s unpopularity: he’s hardly less popular than Brown was in 2010, and Cameron is certainly no more popular than he was then.)

    A possible explanation: maybe it’s not that the Tories are doing particularly well right now, but that they did particularly badly (relative to their potential vote) in 2010. The problem then becomes one of explaining why the Tories underperformed in 2010, rather than why they’re overperforming now.

    Another possible explanation is that the core Tory vote has gone up, and that it is higher now than during their years of division because the Tory party has been able to hold itself together in a way that it hasn’t since the early 1990s.

    At any rate, my suspicion is that the former explanation is correct: for some reason, the Tories did very badly in 2010. I’m open to suggestions as to why.

  13. Looks like the budget has done its job in shoring up Conservative support from UKIP, Labour are well within the margin of error on their 38% where they’ve mostly been recently so not sure on the ‘knives out’ comment on the Times front page. If UKIP are down it will make Labour’s job harder, but (without seeing all the cross-breaks) it’s hard to say if the budget has shifted many votes from Lab->Con

  14. Another possibility, of course, is that the UKIP vote is being radically understated. I do predict, based on trends for just about every other minor party, that UKIP will INCREASE their vote during the 2015 election campaign, contrary to the predictions of many.

  15. “must be disappointing for miliband … to see support draining away”*seems a strange interpretation when labour have increased their support in the survation poll!

  16. Bill

    For a variety of reasons and matters of timing – Gordon Brown’s unfailing tenacity and confidence in Gordon Brown; Cleggmania; a brief pick-up in the economy due to stimulus; the stink of the expenses scandals equally affecting the opposition; and so on . . .; I believe your comments re relative underperformance of Tories in 2010 to have a lot of merit.

  17. Labour have held a poll lead for years and nobody on here has got over excitied about Labour winning the next election.

    If the Tories want a majority, they would have to achieving polling of about 40%, with Labour below 35%, due to the nature of current boundaries.

    I am expecting UKIP to still be a good second to Labour in the EU elections this year. Once the budget mini bound has died away, the polls will be back to normal.

  18. UKIP down 3 hits GO’s target.

    Wait for next weeks Polls to see if it has legs.

    Looks like George got it right though.

  19. Strikes me that the budget may resonate with the 40-59 crossbreak where Lab have enjoyed a fairly consistent 12 point lead.
    The pension liberalisation doesn’t help if you have already bought an annuity (in fact it may make you furious) but if you’re approaching retirement it may be very appealing (albeit arguably an illusion)
    And @ Far Easterner – GO is very good at pulling rabbits out of hats and convincing epople (esp the press) of his competence despite having spectacularly missed all his goals (EG deficit reduction, rebalancing, exports, investment)

  20. Bill Patrick

    “I do predict, based on trends for just about every other minor party, that UKIP will INCREASE their vote during the 2015 election campaign,”

    Not wholly true, of course, as you will know. While in 2011, the Tories did put on 3% compared to the YG poll, the LDs stayed unchanged.

  21. Oldnat,

    Certainly there are exceptions to the trend. The key point is the underlying cause, which is that minority parties tend to suffer from a lack of exposure, and this is mitigated during election campaigns.

  22. I have absolutely no idea what put THAT comment into moderation!

  23. ‘Exposure’?

  24. Anthony

    Despite the lack of a Saltire in this thread, I presume we are allowed to comment on the new ICM indyref poll when it comes out in the early hours of Sunday?

    It will be fascinating to see whether ICM show the same results of Yes closing the gap, and voters sceptical of Westminster actually delivering more powers in the event of a No vote – or whether these were just blips delivered by Survation & Panelbase.

  25. Clearly looks like some poll bounce, but I’d wait a while before announcing this to be a hugely significant change. PB had some poll numbers of budget issues people remembered. 21% recalled the pensions move, which was the biggest actual policy ranking, but ‘nothing’ was the highest at 27%. It doesn’t feel like a real cut through budget, so I suspect this is more general exposure and an opportunity to have the governments name in bright lights for a day or so.

    On the numbers themselves, Lab is up in one, and on the low point of it’s range in the other. Yes, the gap is much smaller in both of these polls, but Labour doesn’t seem to have been hit directly as yet. To declare the budget a sure fire winner, we need to be sure the next round of polls won’t show a reversion.

    These polls perhaps tell us something about the Tory/UKIP dynamic though, and how critical this could be in 2015.

  26. @Guymonde – indeed. When GO talked about the makers, doers and savers, my mind drifted back to the march of the makers from 2010.

    Or was that ‘the march of the mockers’?

  27. An “Exclusively” , “non partisan” ouch! without a non sequitur in sight!!

  28. L Hamilton

    Yes

    and

    Yes

    Mind you, you’d expect me to say Yes. :-)

  29. I think I read that there are 15 million ISA holders.
    Anecdotally, my local Post Office is expecting to be killed in the stampede for the new Pensioner Bonds.

    Newspaper Pensioner VoxPops have used the phrase “treating us like adults at last”.

    GO’s savings/pension package has a big reach.

    The only query was whether it would unlock Con 2010 DKs and UKIP defectors.

    If it does , GO will have improved Cons 2015 prospects significantly at a stroke.

    We need a week’s polls to see if this is a temporary reaction, or a fundamental improvement in Con’s appeal.

  30. I may be proved wrong, but given that this budget in practical terms was the pre election budget, it does strike me that Osborne really is in a tight spot with regard to traditional pre election giveaways.

    Whatever the spin, the macro economic numbers were difficult, and he is going into 2015 falling well short of his stated aims from 2010. Setting up the OBR appeared a good move, after years of more or less random Brownian motion on golden rules and spending limits, but Osborne’s ability in turn to fudge the numbers in the election run up is now limited.

    I think Labour will be hoping this is the high tide mark for the budget backwash, and then see how the economy plays out. Assuming things will naturally flow back to Cons on that score isn’t necessarily a logical stance – if so, it would be the first time that the OBR got it’s forecasts right.

  31. Political Betting posters are suggesting ICM in Scotland on Sunday is further boost for YESERS – anyone got numbers?

  32. Survation’s poll also had Euro poll data according to their twitter feed:

    Survation/MOS: European Referendum – (Change since Jan 4th) Vote to leave 48% (-2) Vote to stay 39% (+6) Don’t know 13% (-4)

    Survation/MOS Voting Intention – EP (Change since Jan 4th) LAB 32 (nc) CON 28 (+5) UKIP 23 (-3) LD 7 (-2) BNP 1 SNP 5 GRE 3 PC

    No tables as yet though – presumably they’ll be available tomorrow

  33. No-there are 24 million adult ISA holders , sitting on £450 bn of ISA Funds.

  34. ALEC

    @” he is going into 2015 falling well short of his stated aims from 2010. ”

    I think this is history-as dead as Darling’s last Budget.

    People will vote on the present & the future as they perceive it when it comes to their thoughts on the economy.

    Labour will presumably continue with all the old 2010 forecasts-but I don’t think they have ant relevance now for voters. And certainly not if recent forecasts of 3% + growth start to appear later this year.

  35. “How can a party, nearly four years into its austerity programme, with a hardly smooth sail through the parliament, and a new rival party full of energy, be only a few points below its vote % in the last election?”

    At least in part, I suspect, because there was a whole genration of voters whose only experience of Conservative government was what their parents told them. Detoxifcation couldn’t be completed in Opposition.

  36. Roger Mexico

    5% of GB vote for SNP seems ludicrously high! (Not that I’d mind, but seems unlikely that the crossbreak is representative of reality.)

  37. @colin – there are 14.6m ‘live’ ISA holders currently subscribing to an ISA- the 24m figure presumably includes ISAs from previous years which people are no longer paying into.

    But those ISA numbers are fascinating nonetheless.

    We should all give praise to the far sighted chancellor who invented them, if only I could recall just who that was….

  38. ALEC

    At present my praise is reserved for the the chancellor who revitalised them-and Con’s VI ( if only for a day or so in the latter case )

  39. L Hamilton

    You’ve probably seen it, but Mike Smithson saying Yes 39% (+2%) : No 46% (-3%) : DK 15% (+1%).

  40. @Colin – I’m not quite so sure the 2010 promises are quite such a done deal as you think.

    The promise was to fix the deficit in a parliament (OK – the ‘structural’ deficit I know, but most voters won’t) but he hasn’t. This isn’t the same as a GDP growth target or an unemployment rate. It was the central promise of the government, and the entire reason for everything they have done.

    I think it’s more of a credibility issue than you think, although I would wholeheartedly agree that Labour will equally their own credibility issues.

  41. Oldnat,

    On those figures your lot are about to win all the seats in Scotland. A Lab-SNP coalition in 2015?!

  42. Well, that definitely looks like a budget bounce from Ukip. Ole Nigel won’t be too happy!

  43. @ Bill Patrick,

    How can a party, nearly four years into its austerity programme, with a hardly smooth sail through the parliament, and a new rival party full of energy, be only a few points below its vote % in the last election?

    Because there are three major parties in English politics and one has collapsed. It’s really not that mysterious. 2010 Lib Dem voters have been boosting the Tory numbers throughout this Parliament. (It’s one possible explanation for a putative 2010 Tory underperformance- Cleggmania was a real phenomenon that seduced away many natural Tory voters, who are now freed to return to the fold. I’m not sure I buy it myself.)

    You might as well ask how Labour could have regained ~7% after less than four years in Opposition, when last time it took them fourteen.

    @ LondonStatto,

    Judging by a) the toxicity polling and b) the age crossbreaks, that seems… not to be true. At all.

  44. Full YouGov figures:

    Lab 37%
    Con 36%
    UKIP 11%
    LD 9%

  45. MrNameless

    If those figures are in any way realistic (which I seriously doubt), then Labour may well decide to join the SNP in getting the best deal for Scotland in the indy negotiations in 2015. :-)

  46. Survation / Panelbase and now ICM – average YES 46%.

    Bit of a trend I would say.,

  47. It’ll be interesting to see whether this ‘budget bounce’ from UKIP’s to the Tories lasts more than a week or two. The EU veto bounce didn’t, once the kippers understood what it actually meant.

  48. Here’s some news for Unionist Labourites, if they need cheering up after those polls.

    The Telegraph reports that both Osborne and Crosby signed off on That Poster.

  49. Interesting polls suggesting that a bounce has materialised for the Tories after the budget but I’m not sure, looking at Anthony’s fascinating graphs of a few threads ago, if Survation and YouGov are recording anything particularly out of the ordinary for governing parties in the immediate aftermath of a Chancellor unwrapping some goodies from his red box. Considering most budgets in the run up to an election attempt to throw some sweeteners about, maybe we’re just seeing exactly what normally happens when that occurs; a boost in the opinion polls. Anthony’s graphs suggest so and they also appear to show that the effect is short-lived.

    The key question is whether this is the start of rolling momentum or a periodic short term blip. Too early to tell, but Osborne will be smiling tonight, that’s for sure.

  50. You can get words out of all the Scottish parties if you contract them right. Slab, Scon(e), ScoLD and SNaP.

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