We are unlikely to get any proper polling on the budget until tomorrow night, so in the meantime here is some new YouGov polling on the European elections that was published in this morning’s Times. Topline voting intentions for Europe are CON 24%, LAB 32%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 23%, GRN 5%. Labour retain their lead for the European elections, the Conservatives and UKIP are still in a tight race for second place… but with UKIP in a narrow third place.

If we look at just those people who say they are certain to vote then it is better for UKIP, as their supporters are the most likely to say they’d turn out. Taking just those who say they are 10/10 certain puts UKIP up to second place and 26%, ahead of the Tories on 22% and behind Labour on 34%.

How the European elections play out will be very much a game of expectation management. In the event UKIP did get 23% it would be a very strong performance and a solid increase on their 2009 score… but coming third would in practice probably be seen as a huge disappointment when there was talk of a victory. As it happens I still think there is a fair chance of them winning – they will get a lot more publicity in the two months running up to the campaign (especially given that OfCom has ruled they they should be treated as a major party in England and Wales and given equal coverage to the other major parties), and I’d expect their support in European election polls to climb in the coming weeks – also this is just one poll, and others have shown them doing better. As ever, time will tell. Full tabs are here, European election polls so far are here.


135 Responses to “YouGov/Times European poll”

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  1. I just better UKIP will win more than half a seat at the European Elections on Paddy Power. I’m not quite sure why the odds for it to happen are so bad – it’s my first time betting (i don’t plan to make it a habit!) Have i missed something obvious?

  2. Damn. First. (Kind of.)

  3. Zac, are you sure you just haven’t had a bet on UKIP increasing it’s number of seats? They have nine at the moment so it looks like you have bet on more than nine after this elec

  4. @ AW

    “By my reckoning, this would translate into 17 MEPs for the Conservatives, 28 for Labour, 20 for UKIP and just 1 each for the Lib Dems and Greens ”

    Interesting. I had the Greens down for a few more. I guess the 5% is lower than the 8% they got last time but I feel that with the UKIP/Con vote split the top vote in many areas will be lower than last time and therefore the bar will be set lower for the Greens when they compete against the top party’s 2nd or 3rd candidates (same for LD). Plus I’d expect a similar type of thing to the late surge that is being predicted for UKIP once minds get focussed.

    Greens in North West only lost a seat by 5,000 to BNP last time around, although I guess the floor may be a bit higher if Labour win with more votes than the Tories did last time. I’m not sure why the Green vote should be much different to last time- they didn’t have much publicity or momentum behind them last time (or this time)- not convinced people who voted Green last time would not vote it this time unless the left of centre really is getting united behind Labour because of a Tory government.

  5. AW
    Who is the singleton LD do you reckon – Sir Graham Watson?

  6. It looks like the heavy YouGov downweighting for identifiers of “Other” parties for the purpose of calculating general election VI isn’t in operation in this poll, since the weighted UKIP VI is only marginally lower than the unweighted. Is this the case, and does the same apply in the case of those identifying with the Green Party?

  7. My initial reaction to the Budget is that Osborne has far overdone the targeting of wealthy pensioners and savers, to the extent that he risks getting everyone else’s backs up.

  8. @Phil Haines

    My thought is no so much that as he’s made it too overtly political. It’s ostensibly clever politics to lavish such largesse on wealthy savers and especially pensioners as they’re amongst the groups most likely to ditch his party for UKIP.

    But he needs floating voters as well and there’s not a lot there for them.

    However, on a broader level this has come at an excellent time for the Tories as it overshadows another significant political development going on as we speak – over at the Old Bailer, Clive Goodman is singing like a canary. And the less we hear about that, the less embarrassment for the Government.

    So it’s clever calculation for Osborne because I think that even bad headlines on the Budget are better for the PM than people paying close attention to goings on in that particular trial, and I think if he can maintain Tory VI he’ll consider that a job well done. And I think he will.

  9. Actually, I take it all back. I am informed by people who have read the small print that there’s something in the Budget that looks like delivering excellent career opportunities for Riley, C.

    Therefore it is a work of genius and everyone ought now to vote Tory*

    *This sentence is subject to change if it turns out I do not personally benefit disproportionately after all.

  10. As this is a European thread perhaps I could relate an anecdote about NL, where today the local elections are being held everywhere. As you probably know Geert Wilders is the Dutch Nigel Farage. His party (PVV) has decided only to stand only in Den Haag (The Hague) and Almere which is (sort of) the Croydon of Amsterdam. In Almere, they have had more than one voter complaining to reporters that they ‘could not find Wilders on the ballot’.

    So much for PR with a one-man party! (In this case it’s local PR of course)!

    Dutch reporters are having a field day with the “BNP/ EDL” types and their statements. Some say ‘we are nor against the Moroccans and Turks (ex gast-arbeider legacy) and one such voter was in fact ethnically a Surinamese mother (background from Dutch Guyana) who said ‘I am not against them as long as they have a job and stop stealing from us’. When her own ethnicity was queried, she exclaimed angrily ‘I was born in Amsterdam’.

    I just thought that this syndrome probably has many parallels here.

  11. Instant poll in the Mirror on the Budget. Hit 12%, Miss 88%

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/budget-2014-sketch-eight-things-3261599

    Anyone know of anything similar elsewhere?

  12. On UNS I get ..

    Lab 27
    Con 17
    UKIP 17
    LibDem 5
    Grn 1
    SNP 2
    PC 1

  13. Phil – voodoo poll, and wholly and entireless worthless (worse than worthless in fact, harmful to reputable polling, since some people may not realise the difference). Please don’t encourage them.

  14. Zack, I think you’ve bet on UKIP getting at least one seat in the GENERAL election.

    On the subject of Green Party seats in the Euros, I think it is highly unlikely that they will get less than the current two, which they have held ever since introduction of PR in 1999. As a Green supporter myself, I am not too concerned that they are currently polling under the 8% they got last time either, as they have consistently polled less than their final result at this point in previous Euro campaigns.

    But to build up momentum for the GE, they really need to finally improve on the two seats they have held since 1999, and ideally overtake the LibDems. Both are eminently achievable, but by no means certain.

  15. Rod – I think you may be right – let me go and double check.

  16. Rod and AW
    Which UNS calculator do you use for this one?

  17. @ Phil Haines

    The Guardian voodoo poll now looking better for Labour than the Mirror voodoo poll!

  18. @AW

    Some of us here quite like voodoo polls.

    I’m trying to devise a system for voodoo poll reweighting but I haven’t quite got there yet.

  19. Rod – I get pretty much the same figures as you. Have the horrid thought that my spreadsheet at work had been left on that setting where you have to press F9 to get it to recalculate formulas!

    Phil – it is impossible to reweight them. There is no demographics to reweight them, they are inevitably heavily skewed towards the interested and open to manipulation. People who put any weight on them are stupid, ignorant or wilfully seeking to mislead. Again, please don’t encourage newspapers who know themselves they are worthless, but like the fact they are linkbait.

  20. @Phil

    It’s the Mirror. Osborne could have given a free house to every Mirror reader and they’d still hate him.

    Just as the Chancellor could order the immediate sacking of everyone north of Birmingham and the DT would still hail him as an unsurpassed genius.

  21. Clickbait :-)

  22. Just realised my post in the last thread was well after the new thread, so…

    —–

    Everyone seems to the think the budget is good/neutral, in that there are no massive hits for people in general.

    So…poll predictions over the next 3-5 polls?

    If the budget is seen as a good one, I’ll go for an average poll of:

    Lab 38
    Con 35
    Lib 9
    UKIP 10

    …and the lead will open a bit after the Euro elections, and then the Summer weather / Ukraine developments will decide which direction it goes from there.

  23. Amber – oh you young people and your neologisms ;)

  24. @Phil / Anthony

    At 30 / 70 now. More or less reputable? :-p

    [I think I may have to log off for the sake of my blood pressure. Reputability (if there is such a word) remains zero, will remain zero no matter how many responses or what the result is. Say NO to voodoo polls! – AW]

  25. :-)

  26. For what it’s worth, with a CTRL and F5, you can refresh the page from scratch and vote again, and again, and again.

  27. The Mirror and the Guardian voodoo polls against Budget measures…well there’s a surprise…

  28. RodCrosby
    I’ll leave it to you then. :-)

    Looks like the piece needs to be altered (and I still don’t know if AW thinks Sir Graham will survive, gosh 5 LD survivors).

  29. RAF
    You’ve raised a point there. Is there an UKIP paper? DT perhaps?

  30. The DT’s readership seems Kippy, but if there’s one most openly pro-UKIP I’d say the Express.

  31. If you look at the Green figures in 2009, it looks as if they might well have picked up quite a lot of support in the last couple of weeks of the campaign -http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/european-elections

    This poll puts them 5 points behind the Lib Dems but several recently have had that gap at just 2 points. If they do gain ground in a similar way in the coming weeks, there could be a real battle for fourth place – unless, of course, the Nick v Nigel debates give Clegg’s team a boost too!

  32. I’m thinking that the LD’s will lose their seats in regions where there are few seats up for grabs – ie North East England and East Midlands. With only 10%, by the time the system gets to them, there will be probably no seats left to dish out. Unless they’ve managed to concentrate their support in the right areas.

  33. The LD seats will be most likely be lost in the following order.

    SouthEast(1), Scotland, East Midlands, NorthEast, West Midlands, Yorks/Humber, Eastern, London, NorthWest, SouthWest, SouthEast(1)

  34. @AW

    I can’t believe you took my reweighting comment seriously.

  35. The referee for tonight’s game at Old Trafford is Bjorn Kuipers. Is this a sign?

  36. @Statgeek

    It’s worse than that — give me five minutes and I can write a computer program that does the reloading and clicking for you ….

  37. @MrNameless

    According to this week’s Eye, the new DT leadership polled their readers in the hope that a slightly more liberal (ie advertiser-friendly) stance might be acceptable only to find, to their horror, that their readership does indeed want the paper to ditch the Tories and embrace UKIP.

    Doing that would be commercial and political suicide, but as the paper is shedding readers at an unprecedented rate who knows what might happen.

  38. Are Voodoo polls just badly done polls? Or are they a particular kind of bad poll?

  39. ^ I refer the honorable gentleman to the answers Mr. Wells has given before: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/category/voodoo

  40. I’ve always taken a paper (when I took a paper) that had the opposite stance to the one I had at the time. I can’t see any point in reading stuff that parrots back at you what you think.

    It’s a bit different now, because I only read those papers on the web which don’t have a paywall. I suspect I am not alone.

  41. If that Mirror poll has zero reputability (or whatever), do Express polls have negative reputability?

  42. Phil Haines
    The Mirror is “the intelligent tabloid”. I know this because it told me so.

  43. Phil – I *hoped* it was a joke (if I thought you’d seriously gone down that route I think I’d have been less rude!)

  44. @ALISDAIR

    “It’s worse than that — give me five minutes and I can write a computer program that does the reloading and clicking for you ….”

    ——

    Can you do bots too? It’d save ToH a lot of effort!!

  45. @CHARLES

    “Are Voodoo polls just badly done polls? Or are they a particular kind of bad poll?”

    ———

    Well, they are very easy to do, which must be annoying if your job is to do them properly…

  46. YouGov/Sun poll tonight : CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%

  47. Regardless of the order of arrival of UKIP and the Tories in EE, they are both in serious trouble because they risk losing their respective groups (EFD and ECR). According to my predictions, based on VI polls for EE in all 28 countries (it’s not so easy to do!), EFD will have MEPs from 4 countries (Denmark, Finland, Lithuania and UK), with the possible addition of Greece (Independent Greeks). ECR will have MEPs from 5 countries (CR, Latvia, Netherlands, Poland and UK) with the possible addition of Slovakia (OLANO) and Lithuania (AWPL). On the other hand, the newly formed far-right Europhobic Alliance under Marine LePen will have MEPs from 6 countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden). Given the fact that to from a political group in the EP MEPs from at least 7 countries are needed, none of this 3 formations to the right of EPP is certain to have a group in the next EP. Other than that, my prediction for the composition of the EP is actually as follows:
    SD 219, EPP 212, ALDE 62, EUL/NGL 59, ECR 44, G-EFA 37, New Alliance 36, EFD 35, Non-affiliated 57. Note that with 27 MEPs, Labour will be the strongest party within the SD group (German SPD: 24, Italian PD: 23)

  48. Instant poll in the Mirror on the Budget. Hit 12%, Miss 88%
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/budget-2014-sketch-eight-things-3261599
    Anyone know of anything similar elsewhere?
    Report comment

    As if any instant poll in the left wing Mirror is going to be impartial…come on..

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