The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 16%(+1). Tabs are here.

The poll also asked about European election voting intentions and found toplines of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%. Despite widespread speculation that UKIP could win the European elections, most recent polling has actually shown Labour ahead, so this is a good poll for UKIP (note that this poll shows some rather extreme shifts from the previous ComRes European poll, but the crosstabs in that poll looked exceptionally odd, so I wouldn’t read much into the changes).

The fortnightly Opinium/Observer poll is also out tonight, and has toplines of CON 30%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3)


67 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. “They credit the global economy or BofE rather than the government”

    That would be evidence that the British public, though naturally economically ignorant in many ways, are much more economically literate than the British political class (and subsidiary classes like political journalists) who have tended to blame the government for the faux “double dip” or credit the government for the recent recovery. (Notably few have done both!)

    In the post-1997 UK macroeconomic regime, the Bank of England has the final say on aggregate demand (unless its target is changed) and it’s always been the case that short-term changes in the supply-side of the economy have been due to supply-side factors. In a very open trading economy like the UK, such factors obviously include how the rest of the world is doing e.g. if there’s a recession in the Eurozone or a spike in oil prices.

    For those of us who think that the Bank of England can always boost aggregate demand (even if interest rates reach zero) this means that neither the Great Recession or the choking of the recovery were inevitable. In fact, one can make the argument that Labour lost in 2010 due to incompetance from the Bank of England, who failed to increase the money supply in response to an increased demand for it during the financial crisis. Consequently, a financial crisis turned into a brutal crisis for ordinary men and women, which will have consequences for decades.

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  2. Extrapolation from a given point, i.e. the trend is moving in a particular way, therefore will continue on that trend, is a trap.
    Trends can either accelerate or decelerate or even reverse, it is impossible to say. If for instance you were to graph the growth of gas lighting from the early 19th century, you could pronounce with some certainty that all of Europe would be on Gas lighting by 1930, one event the arrival of electric lighting and that prediction would be proved nonsense.

    The raw data shows a polling lead for Labour of 8% or thereabouts as does today’s Yougov, it is the ‘likely to vote’ adjustment that reduces the lead, how accurate that is we won’t know until election day.

    Nothing has really changed since the last GE it is looking difficult to see how either of the two main parties can win an overall majority, let alone a working one.

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  3. @Hamish

    I exaggerate somewhat and, yes, there may be consequences in the way that parties react to their EU results but as a polling sample it’s so unrepresentative of a General Election as to be meaningless.

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  4. I think that broadly the electorate view the Government record on the economy as modest at best, but they also see Labour as no better.

    Could we see the 2015 GE fought by two parties who carry the economy of confidence of only the most partisan voters?

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  5. David

    “Nothing has really changed since the last GE”

    Apart from the collapse of the LibDem viote and the rise of UKIP’s that is.

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  6. @Carfrew

    Interesting stuff, thank you.
    All pretty predictable IMO except one rather startling one:

    “If Lab win the next election, expect to pay more tax than if Tories won?
    35% agree, 32% disagree
    (31% think they would pay more tax if tories win)”

    Within MOE you might say that there is no consensus at all on which is the ‘high tax’ party. Am I wrong, or is that a stunning change from how Lab were viewed in the past – certainly 20 years ago and I would have said the same last year?

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  7. “The poll also asked about European election voting intentions and found toplines of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%.”
    _____

    That is a good poll for UKIP, no ifs or buts its a bloody good poll for them.

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  8. Not much to choose between the two leaders’ personal ratings now, either, with Miliband on -14% and Cameron on -10%.

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  9. UKIP per region across UK

    South-east of England : 29%

    English Midlands : 39%

    North of England : 31%

    Wales & South-west of England : 36%

    Scotland : 6%
    …………….

    Scotland (Euro)

    SNP 39%
    Labour 19%
    Conservatives 13%
    Liberal Democrats 12%
    Greens 8%
    UKIP 6%

    Looks as if the UKIP train has hit the buffers at the Scottish border.
    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

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  10. Allan – yes a good poll for the UKIP for the Euros.

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  11. Anyone got any views on the Electoral Calculus seat projections as compared to UKPR?

    I have begun to notice that EC always have a higher Labour majority than UKPR and claim to do more in depth analysis of regions or seats rather than just UNS.

    Just wondering if people feel the EC analysis is well based or is still subject to too many assumptions to make it any more valid than a simple UNS.

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  12. “claim to do more in depth analysis of regions or seats rather than just UNS.”

    They don’t. It’s a general model, just like UNS, it doesn’t include any regional or seat based factors. Martin Baxter calls it a “strong transition model” but in practice it is very similar to UNS, but with an adjustment that in practice creates a floor effect (which prevents a negative vote in individual seats). I think it’s sensible.

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  13. Bill Patrick
    ‘For those of us who think that the Bank of England can always boost aggregate demand (even if interest rates reach zero) this means that neither the Great Recession or the choking of the recovery were inevitable. In fact, one can make the argument that Labour lost in 2010 due to incompetance from the Bank of England, who failed to increase the money supply in response to an increased demand for it during the financial crisis.’

    But surely monetary policy works too slowly for that to be so. Changes in interest rates and the money supply take a good 2 years to filter through to having a significant effect on the real economy – or are you suggesting that the Bank of England should have slashed rates back in 2006 to counter the financial collapse in 2008?

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  14. @Colin – that was an interesting link, but not quite sure how it relates to my initial post, which was about the disparity between the Q4 PMI and ONS actual data.

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  15. UKIP hit the buffers at Scotland? I agree with this. Mind you, if the scots want their independence, they will be a irrelevance to anyone here then no matter we vote for.

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  16. Graham,

    Actually, monetary policy (and economic policy in general) tends to work with leads rather than lags. A rise in the expected price level 2 years hence, for example, should promote spending today.

    Expectations uber alles, as some economists say. Economics is less about bricks and mortar than it is about expectations, morals and heuristics.

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  17. ALEC

    It was just a more up to date look at the Construction Sector-including a more recent PMI.

    Looking through the bad weather effect I think the signs are Construction is looking up-particularly housing.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/14/housebuilders-boost-uk-construction-sector-output-2-percent

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