As we rather expected from this morning’s tables, the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy has the Labour lead up again after the unusual one point lead a month ago. Topline figures are CON 30%(-2), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 11%(-3). Part of this will be simply a reversion to the mean after the unusual poll last month, but even accounting for that its a larger than usual Labour lead from ComRes’s phone polls.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%.


525 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. @OldNat

    “Is this Jim demonstrating that he shares the views of the electorate in England?”

    Doubt it. He’s probably peeved that he isn’t getting any hospitality tickets for the World Cup in Brazil.

    Shame, he could have sent a few postcards back to his fellow Scots. It’s the nearest they’ll ever get to a World Cup! lol

    As Ally MacLeod famously said; “Yae didnae qualify!”

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  2. Sorry, that should have said “The Great” Ally MacLeod

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  3. Crossbat11

    Funny. I thought that you guys might have appreciated him calling the team “star”. At least, I assume that’s what was meant.

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  4. COLIN
    “OSCE monitors refused entry to Crimea for the third time.-again by armed gunmen. They are accompanied by Ukrainian military escort-so Ukrainian Authorities have lost control of Crimea already.”

    In a further post you follow John Simpson in saying that there has been a de facto transfer of sovereignty.

    Because armed men with no identifiable authority are holding the border post? Sorry,I’ve lost your thread.

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  5. “n the Crimean capital Simferopol on Saturday, the man named as prime minister of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, held a ceremony to swear in pro-Russian self-defence volunteers as members of what he called a new Crimean army.

    Witnesses said about 30 armed men, from a wide age range, were sworn in at a city park. ”

    Vlad’s Army?

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  6. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 7th March – Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -20

    Labour lead 7

    in this one Cons have taken a lot of 2010 LD’s, but lost a lot to UKIP. 2010 LD to Lab is a bit low, otherwise the usual groups that support Lab, Cons, UKIP and LD are as normal

    Just under a third of Lab supporters think that Ed M is doing badly, while fully 93% of Con supporters think that David C is doing just great.

    The economic confidence questions still show large negativity

    In your opinion how good or bad is the state of
    Britain’s economy at the moment? -25% (19% good 44% bad), although almost half of current Con supporters think the economy is doing well.

    How do you think the financial situation of your
    household will change over the next 12 months? -21% (17% better 38% worse). Current Cons down to 30% on this one

    I wonder when this second question is asked in the first weeks of May 2014 there will be a sudden change.

    Also why are Yougovs polling tables laid out so much better than the other companies. i find Yougov easy to understand at a glance, but the rest of them, i find very confusing and badly formatted.

    IMO

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  7. Con 32 – Lab 39 – LD 10 – UKIP 14 – App -32

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  8. Sorry, approval -20

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  9. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”In a further post you follow John Simpson in saying that there has been a de facto transfer of sovereignty”

    I said “poer” -not “sovereignty”.

    @”Because armed men with no identifiable authority are holding the border post? Sorry,I’ve lost your thread.”

    Another Putin Fig leak John. I make the assumption that if Russian troops will not allow Ukrainian military out of their barracks in Crimea-then anyone walking the streets of Crimea with a weapon is approved by him.

    By the way these are the members of OCSE

    http://www.osce.org/who/83

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  10. UKIP ers gave interesting answers to the Russian questions this morning.

    They seem to be generally less condemnatory of Russia & more isolationist in foreign policy , than supporters of other parties.

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  11. Good Morning All.

    Lovely day here; for the beach, for polling and for rugby.

    IMHO: Crimea is part of Russia.

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  12. Some people are on the square
    They think it’s part of Russia
    It is now…

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  13. Seven point lead ?
    Back of the net ! ( from last night just after 6 pm )

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  14. Are some Lib Dems suffering from Stockholm Syndrome ? In the north of England will many Lib Dems now vote tactically for a Tory, if the Tory candidate has the best chance of beating Labour. The local election result in Bury last week seemed to indicate some Lib Dem voters did back the Tory candidate.

    Do some Lib Dems feel that their main chance of staying in government is to make sure the Tories win most seats in May 2015 ? They may think that Labour led by Miliband will opt for a minority administration, rather than forge a coalition.

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  15. “Do some Lib Dems feel that their main chance of staying in government is to make sure the Tories win most seats in May 2015 ?”

    No. I’ve never met a Lib Dem who wants to repeat the experience.

    “They may think that Labour led by Miliband will opt for a minority administration, rather than forge a coalition”

    If Labour doesn’t have a majority, why do you think they would be allowed to form a minority administration? It’s not necessarily going to be up to them to choose. However, this will also depend on the precise voting and parliamentary arithmetic 2010 vs. 2015.

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  16. “Are some Lib Dems suffering from Stockholm Syndrome?”

    Yes. I’ve had conversations with quite a few of late and they all seem to think that Labour are actually bad, while the Tories are dragged in the wrong direction by a few extremists on the fringes. They’ve bought the line that the LDs are anchoring the government in the centre.

    Anyway, I’m going to a comedy gig on the 20th with Neil Kinnock as the guest speaker. As usual, requests for questions if there’s Q&A?

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  17. Mr NAMELESS>
    Sounds like a good gig?

    Question: ‘Are you all ri?’ would be good: repeating his Sheffield rally question, which he whispered three times on live BBC News.

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  18. You’re not the first person to suggest that!

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  19. @Ewen Lightfoot

    Smack on prediction for this weekend’s poll; I’m impressed.

    Just before I wander down to Ladbrokes a little later this morning, you couldn’t give me the results of this afternoon’d Rugby and football matches could you?

    And the precise timing of the first wide bowled in the T20 cricket international would be quite nice too! lol

    @Mr Nameless

    Could you ask Neil Kinnock if he goes walking on the beach with his wife any more?

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  20. Share of Vote by 2010 party ID for this week’s You Gov here:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDVHVPeUsydll3SGM/edit?usp=sharing

    The approval of -20 isn’t too bad for the Government, but it doesn’t seem to be improving the Con VI much.

    I have always thought the link between those measures to either be weak or non-existent.

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  21. CATMANUEFF.
    Good Morning to you.
    Labour tends, as an Opposition, to do better when there is optimism in the air. People feel ‘safer’ so they think it is ok to let Labour have a chance.
    1945
    1964
    1997

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  22. At last……..
    new thread

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  23. @Chris Lane 1945

    Good Morning.

    Is optimism the same as Government approval? What does approving of the Government really mean? I suspect the question itself a bit grey, murky and subject to so much individual interpretation to render it near useless.

    If economic progress is a key plank in turning around the Conservative’s re-election hopes in 2015, this looks a touch concerning.

    When asked: In your opinion how good or bad is the state of
    Britain’s economy at the moment?

    Total Good = 19
    Total Bad = 44
    Difference = (25)

    I note that those who intend to vote UKIP are at -45, nearly as bad as those who intend to vote Lab (-56). Cons are +30 and LDs -8.

    How about: How do you think the financial situation of your
    household will change over the next 12 months?

    Total Better = 17
    Total Worse = 38
    Difference = -21

    Con Difference = +9
    Lab Difference = -39
    LD Difference = +3
    UKIP Difference = -39

    Last week UKIP took 17% of the votes of those who voted Con in 2010. Surely this is the group DC needs to bring back to win in 2015. It looks like the economy, unless something really changes, may not do it for him alone.

    I would add that this data does not suggest people think Lab would do better, but simply if the economy is the key plank for a Conservative win in 2015, they will need something else!

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  24. Unless the poll averages here and elsewhere are all completely wrong and we assume that lots are simply not telling us anything relevant to how they will vote next year I see a long term trend. How many 100s of 1000s polled for years now would have to be not saying what tey will do in 2015 for the approx 6 point Labour lead to evaporate so they are not even the largest party. If using the stats we have gives NO idea why are we all bothering to collect and draw conclusions from people who PAY for polling. One might keep in mind that polls are often not dead right , but not as wrong as the present ones. Oh ! I also believe the bookies odds on pro Labour which is purely about where the money goes is something to weigh rather heavily in predictions.

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