This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The Labour lead of nine points is higher than YouGov have shown of late, but as ever, don’t get too excited about individual polls apparently showing movement, more often than not they’ll turn out to just be normal sample variation. Full tabs are here.
YouGov also had some initial Ukraine questions. The British public are far more sympathetic to Ukraine (53%) than Russia (3%). By 50% to 33% they think the situation in Ukraine is something that should concern Britain and the West, not just a matter for Russia & Ukraine. Tabs here.
Meanwhile yesterday’s Populus poll had figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Their full tables are here. Populus have also started a deal with the FT to provide a big monthly poll of about 14000 people. I assume this the aggregated data from all their twice-weekly polls each month, rather than new and distinct data, but it does provide bigger cross-breaks to look at. The first batch of aggregated Populus/FT data is here.
We are still overdue the ComRes/Indy monthly telephone poll. This morning’s Indy has a couple of findings from the poll, but not the voting intention figures. However, the tabs on the ComRes website do have voting intention as a crossbreak, so I think we can expect tonight’s poll to show something in the region of Conservative 29%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 11%. We shall presumably see tonight. IF that is the case, it will be a bit of a reversion to the mean after a bit of an outlier last month that showed only a one point Labour lead, but also shows a lower level of Conservative support than ComRes have shown for sometime. Essentially it looks like a odd poll last month and a bit of an usual poll this month have combined to produce a big jump in Labour’s lead that is not reflected in the wider trend of opinion polling… but we shall see how the Indy report it ;)