Saturday’s Sun newspaper had a new YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions with topline figures of YES 35%(+1), NO 53%(+1). There’s obviously no significant change from YouGov’s previous poll, carried out at the start of February before the recent currency row, and the NO lead remains at 18 points. The referendum results are here and there are some additional questions here. In his commentary on the YouGov website today Peter Kellner suggests views are pretty solid – the currency story hasn’t made much impact because the vast majority (79%) of YES supporters just didn’t believe it and assumed the British political parties were bluffing (though a fair amount of YES supporters would also prefer an independent Scottish currency anyway).

There was a similar break when people were asked about an independent Scotland’s position in the European Union – the large majority (70%) of YES supporters think that an independent Scotland will be able to make a smooth transition to membership on day one, only 15% of NO voters think they would. The arguments that dominate the Scottish independence debate don’t really appear to be changing any minds, people are just viewing them through their pre-existing support for YES or NO.

In a similar vein there is a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll, also timed to mark the 200 days to go point, and again showing very little change. Amongst those certain to vote YES is on 32%(-2), NO is on 57%(nc), Don’t knows 11%. Changes are from the previous MORI poll in December 2013. Full tabs are here.


143 Responses to “New MORI and YouGov Scottish polls”

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  1. mac first!

  2. Although it has had no detectable impact, I think that the currency story did benefit the Naw side in one respect: it dominated the coverage of the referendum campaign, at a time when the Aye side desperately need to change minds. I think it’s hard to see how either side can accomplish a big shift at this stage, and the Aye side will be content insofar as they can keep the debate awkward for the Naw side.

    I tend to think that people will get a little weak at the knees in the final few weeks and we’ll see Naw push up to >60%, since it’s an asymmetric choice (independence soon for sure vs. union and maybe independence later) but this is speculation, and the SNP have evolved into a much better campaigning machine than in the past.

  3. “the currency story hasn’t made much impact because the vast majority (79%) of YES supporters just didn’t believe it and assumed the British political parties were bluffing … when people were asked about an independent Scotland’s position in the European Union – the large majority (70%) of YES supporters think that an independent Scotland will be able to make a smooth transition to membership on day one”

    This despite everyone outside Scotland being as clear and honest as they can be about what is going to happen if Scotland does secede. It does suggest a certain amount of “magical thinking”.

  4. @Shevii (FPT)
    “Populus showing a dodgily small Lab lead:”

    No surprise, given this sample base after reweighting:
    2010 Con 582 = 39.8%
    2010 Lab 395 = 27.0%
    2010 LD 343 = 23.4%

  5. Haste ye back, we loo you dearly
    Call again, you’re welcome here.
    May your days be free from sorrow,
    And your friends be ever near.
    May the path on which you wander
    Be to you a joy each day.
    Haste ye back, we loo you dearly
    Haste ye back on friendship’s way.

  6. “In contrast, Scotland’s two big tribes – pro-independence SNP supporters and anti-independence opponents of the SNP – seem to be as different as Disraeli’s two nations, ‘between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy’.”

    Tragic.

  7. The only sizeable shifts in the MORI poll are among the Don’t Knows, where they are asked how they are “leaning” on the indy question.

    Don’t Knows leaning towards –

    Yes 39% (+12%) : No 29% (-5%) : Still nae idea 32% (-6%)

  8. Oldnat – I’d be careful of reading too much into that. Remember that one month’s don’t knows are not the same as the next month’s. Imagine a situation where 2% of people moved from YES to don’t know, they would make up almost a fifth of the don’t knows, and would presumably still be more inclined towards YES than NO, and would make that month’s don’t knows much more “Yessy” than the previous month’s.

    (Mathematically of course this *could* have happened here… but I expect it isn’t that, and it’s just sample noise making something that looks like a nice neat pattern but isn’t)

  9. MORI Holyrood constituency VI (Changes since Dec poll in brackets)

    SNP 36% (+1%) : Lab 32% (-3%) : Con 16% (+1%) : LD 10% (+2%) : Other 7% (nc)

  10. Anthony

    Indeed. I imagine that up until the point where Xs are made in boxes, some people will be unsure as to which box the X will go in.

  11. “I imagine that up until the point where Xs are made in boxes, some people will be unsure as to which box the X will go in.”

    As in, like every other vote ever held?

  12. According to Populus, UKIP voters are least likely to be in work: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh0YnxPCAAAJdJh.jpg:large

    Of course, that’s because almost 40% of that party’s voters are retired. They’re closely followed by the Tories, who are 53% in work.

    Labour have the highest proportion of working supporters, the highest proportion of unemployed supporters, and the lowest proportion of retired supporters. Curiously, they’ve also got more homemakers than any other party, tied with UKIP.

  13. Bill Patrick

    Were you thinking of this when you said “Tragic”?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-26422109

  14. Nick Robinson [email protected] 2m

    BREAKING Government will not curb trade with Russia or close London’s financial centre to Russians an official document reveals

    Well, that’s Russia put in its place!

  15. @MRNAMELESS

    “According to Populus, UKIP voters are least likely to be in work: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh0YnxPCAAAJdJh.jpg:large

    Of course, that’s because almost 40% of that party’s voters are retired. They’re closely followed by the Tories, who are 53% in work.

    Labour have the highest proportion of working supporters, the highest proportion of unemployed supporters, and the lowest proportion of retired supporters. Curiously, they’ve also got more homemakers than any other party, tied with UKIP.”

    ——

    Wonder how the working proportions will change over time given the propensity among a healthy number of boomers to vote for lesser pensions for others than for themselves and folk in the future have to keep working well into tbeir dotage…

  16. @OldNat

    Barney Crockett of UKPR?

  17. RAF

    Motion in the name of Labour councillor Willie Young, Convener of Aberdeen City Council’s Finance and Resources – but I assume his boss ( our own Barney Crockett) approves.

  18. “The arguments that dominate the Scottish independence debate don’t really appear to be changing any minds….”

    …which with less than 200 days left is good news for only one side.

  19. The document Robinson referred to was apparently photographed while being carried in Downing Street. You’d think they’d have learned to be more careful by now.

  20. @OldNat

    They want to ban the First Minister of Scotland from visiting public buildings in a Scottish city? Seriously? Come on Barney, come on and tell us it ain’t so

  21. This isn’t a forum to challenge Barney on what his council’s up to (or for Barney to defend it)

  22. RogerH

    I hadn’t realised that. That seems remarkably incompetent, and firm measures are required!

    Boris should ban all UK Ministers from entering any London owned building! :-)

  23. @Anthony

    I only said it in the interest of balance.

  24. “This isn’t a forum to challenge Barney on what his council’s up to (or for Barney to defend it)”

    That last part assumes that a council leader in the throes of a heated argument with Holyrood over its treatment of his city would even be bothered to respond to give his side of the argument when those who choose to criticise him do so from under the cloak of anonymity. I imagine that he has a few more important things to attend to.

  25. Oh Gawd-I knew it would be bad when the Saltire went up.

    Paxo to the rescue.

  26. More details on how the City of London is to be protected against loss of Russian money.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/uk-seeks-russia-harm-city-london-document?CMP=twt_gu

  27. @COLIN

    “Paxo to the rescue.”

    ——–

    That bad, huh? Still, only another ten hours till sunrise…

  28. My personal theory about why the Noes have a majority in Scottish polls is because they think it is the answer most likely to annoy the English!

  29. Colin

    Judging by the last couple of contributions, you seem to be right.

  30. OfCom has decided UKIP is a major party in England & Wales.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26422876

    Question Time was there long before them.

  31. @OldNat

    Have you been shaken by these polls, yet still not stirred?

    Sean would be proud of you.

  32. Good Evening All.
    The accounts of Churchill and FDR in Yalta, 1945, is worth re reading, as we see glimpses of British policy now, in Downing Street.

    CROSSBAT11:
    Good weekend for you, then, sir?
    And for me: no loss for us.

  33. YG:

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 8
    UKIP 12

    Well it ain’t polldrums, but it ain’t accurate probably!

  34. @MSmithsonPB: LAB lead moves to 9% in tonight’s YouGov poll
    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 8
    UKIP 12

    Mmm I think safe to say ‘outlier’ ?

  35. 9 point lead? Wonder if Millibands increased exposure following labour/union changes has had an effect.

  36. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead stretches to nine points: CON 32, LAB 41, LD 8, UKIP 12

    Actually when you looked at Sundays poll, the crossbreaks showed Labour above 40% in some, so perhaps the polls will start to show a slight increase for them.

    Whether it is fair or not, it is possible that some people see that the Tories are partly responsible for the poor government response to the flooding challenge.

  37. MrN
    No, it’s accurate and the result of the Tories blaming EM for the situation in Ukraine. In my dreams that is.

  38. Probably an outlier….

    I actually think OldNat had a valid point about the DKs – I can’t find an answer to this in the methodology, so I accept Anthony’s word as a proxy verification.

  39. Seeing as Labour are on about 38-39 on average, 41 is within the normal expected range.

  40. Not great headlines tonight for the government around ‘sanctions’ leak for Russia – ominshambles part 2

  41. If this does turn out to have some cause beyond deviation (which I doubt) I would posit two things:

    The remaining Lib Dem holdouts who didn’t like the way union support worked have gone over post-Collins (unusually low LD score in this poll).

    Some formerly Labour UKIP voters have gone back to Labour, either because of Collins or because of the tremendously right-wing hue of UKIP’s spring conference, which may have scared them off their new party.

    However the more likely option is it means nothing.

  42. Labour 36%-42% on YouGov so solidly within their range.Combined with one of the Tories’ lower shares gives them a healthy lead.

    Could easily be 38% and 34% tomorrow without any change in reality.

    Slightly intrigued to see if Tory desires to protect the City first and support the Ukrainians with nothing more than words leaves Ed M any opportunity to slip the knife in and twist but probably won’t.

  43. Laszlo

    Anthony’s point was correct. The main net shift was of some male voters from Yes to DK, so inevitably, they are more likely to still be minded to vote Yes than No.

    Hence, why his observations are always useful.

    The least said about those who don’t understand moe and that some pollster methodologies produce different headline figures from others, the better.

  44. SEN5C

    @”Slightly intrigued to see if Tory desires to protect the City first and support the Ukrainians with nothing more than words leaves Ed M any opportunity to slip the knife in and twist but probably won’t.”

    Don’t know if he will or not.

    But someone needs to.

    I am absolutely disgusted with the stance.

    Senator McCain on Sky this evening scathing, called Obama naive . Merkel is soft pedaling like crazy.

    Vlad must be smiling into his vodka tonight & planning his next moves in the Eastern Ukraine.

    Pathetic.

  45. Looks like Boris is parachuting in to the rescue.
    Perhaps the Yessies should invite him to Scotland?

  46. 9% lead just balances out previous narrower polls. It’s just MoE stuff still. There isn’t any major shift.

  47. It really does look like the UK response to the Russian moves is going to be stunningly feeble, with the primary objective seemingly that of protecting the City of London. So many of our governance decisions in the foreign policy and diplomatic arenas do seem to have this objective first and foremost. For a country that apparently prides itself on the support for freedom and liberty, that is rather sad.

    Slightly incredulous also that top government officials are so cavalier with their handling of sensitive data. Not the governments responsibility directly, but it smacks of amateurish incompetence.

    On the substance of what was leaked, I felt Putin would be terrified of one of UK’s policy aims – the one were we would “accept an emergency summit of EU leaders to discuss Ukraine.” That’ll have his special forces quaking in his boots.

  48. In fact, that would have his special forces quaking in their boots. Unless Putin has a large array of rugged footwear.

  49. Does anyone know how many voters in the City of London Corporation are appointed by Russian owned finance companies?

  50. @Alec

    I’m surprised that you’re surprised.

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