The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer tonight has topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 19%(+2). Opinium tend to show higher figures for UKIP and consequently some of the lowest figures for the Conservatives and Labour (something that’s probably due to a lack of any political weighting) so the low Conservative and Labour scores are not actually that remarkable, though for the record the Labour score is the lowest Opinium have shown since 2010 (though of course, back them when Labour were on 34 it put them four points behind the Tories, now it puts them five points ahead!). Tabs are here.


95 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 29, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 19”

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  1. First .

  2. I wonder if the coverage of UKIP’s spring conference has contributed to their 19%. Obviously this is within the margin of error but there may be a trend.

  3. Second

  4. Oi

  5. The Scotsman is quoting a new YouGov Indy ref poll with No at 53%

    No doubt Anthony will add it as an undated soon?

    Peter.

  6. Interesting details on leadership approvals plus a mine of information on UK wide opinion on Scottish independence.

    On leader ratings, it would appear that David Cameron has more scope to appeal to third party voters than Ed Milliband, while Nick Clegg will struggle to pull in additional votes.

    The Scottish questions indicate little confidence in the viability of an independent Scotland. However, since this was a UK wide poll, it cannot be used as a guide for VI in the referendum.

  7. Valerie,

    Sorry. I couldn’t resist. It was a first for me. Normally there are already dozens of comments before I alight on a new thread.

    Paul

  8. Paul HJ,

    “However, since this was a UK wide poll, it cannot be used as a guide for VI in the referendum.”

    And as the majority of those will get their views on Scotland from a London centric media that gives it scant coverage it probably represents a subject they aren’t particularly engaged with.

    In the same way most Scots probably wouldn’t know much about the in’ s and out’s of the contest for London Mayor.

    Peter.

  9. This must be pretty near the lowest Tory poll rating ever.

  10. Wolf,

    As far as I know, the lowest Tory rating in a poll ever was 21% sometime in 1994-1996 (can’t remember when).

  11. More recently this sort of figure (29%) has been quite common on Comres and Opinium but I think Survation have the recent record with 24% last May. In every one of these cases there’s a high UKIP showing to account for it. As I’ve remarked before this UKIP- assessing discrepancy looks like remaining one of the great uncertainties for some time ahead.

    The 1994/6 low was something else altogether but I will be resurrecting the last thread if I go any further.

  12. the tories hit 23% in the fateful year of 1981 (october i think it was), when Maggie Thatcher held her nerve against all comers.

    A remarkable leader, despite what her enemies thought of her.

  13. @Valerie

    That doesn’t count. You knew you weren’t First. Still funny though!

  14. Oh! The moral dilemma. Anthony puts up a poll in which pages 28-59 are Macbethian, but the thread lacks a Saltire, so are unmentionable.

  15. Peter Crawford:

    The poll on this site for 1981 doesn’t seem to have her vote going as low as that, so further investigation may be needed.

    Of course, one can argue that the reason why her party’s popularity sunk so low only a couple of years after being elected was because the government was a bit of a disaster. One could also argue that it was only the jingoism surrounding the Falklands war that saved her after. Remarkable, but not necessarily because of the reasons you think.

  16. Wolf,

    Actually, according to the headline, 29 is +1, so the previous result from Opinium was 28 (on 14 feb according to the table on the right).

    As this poll shows both Con and UKIP gaining from the last poll, this cannot be down to UKIP supporters drifting back to Con ( or at least not entirely).

  17. Rory – its does, Gallup in Dec 1981

  18. @PHJ
    No worries. Everyone deserves a turn.
    @Raf

    I realised my error as soon as I’d posted. It’s a shame there is no ‘edit’ button or ,come to that, a ‘like’ button as there is on Facebook .

  19. I started looking at the tables and after 5 pages thought it would be easier to ask- they do weight but not by “political weighting” (according to AW’s write up) so what weighting do they do?

    I can see a reason for weighting to correct for an unbalanced sample but if that were the case and Opinium don’t, then presumably UKIP would be both higher and lower over a number of Opinium polls than Yougov. But they are always higher therefore it must be a bit more of a philosophy thing where Yougov and others discount the UKIP vote for various reasons?

  20. More idyllic memories of the ’70s – going on a student march past the Dept of Education with cries of “Thatcher Thatcher , Milk Snatcher”.

  21. Peter Cairns ,

    It may interest you to hear that the London Centric media have been giving your little local election in September a fair deal of coverage of late. Regular reports these days in both the Standard and City-AM, not just the national press.

    What might perhaps concern your party most is that the “little Englander” line of “just cut them loose, we’ll be better off without the whinging Scots” appears to have no traction down here. Even the thought of removing Lab’s block of Scottish MPs to improve the chances of a Conservative government in the rest of UK fails to find favour with Cons by a wide margin.

    We want you to stay. (So too do the Krauts according to their Chancellor during her recent visit)

  22. I well remember her being the most unpopular PM “since records began”. What saved her government in 1983 was a divided opposition as she got fewer votes then than in 1979.

  23. oldnat

    p34!

  24. Barbazenzero

    Yes, Facinating set of questions, indicative of nuanced understanding of the issues!

    I trust the genial Prof is going to open a thread on it over on his site.

  25. @Paul HG

    On leader ratings, it would appear that David Cameron has more scope to appeal to third party voters than Ed Milliband, while Nick Clegg will struggle to pull in additional votes.

    I’m not sure I agree with that interpretation.

    This is where each party’s supporters come from based on last weeks YouGov:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDcHE0anJKT3BBY00/edit?usp=sharing

    Labour have significant support from people who voted non-Labour in 2010 – much more than the Conservatives have, who like the Lib Dems, have a VI more based on just their supporters from 2010.

    Of course, it is possible that some 2010 LDs were Labour in previous elections, but that data can’t confirm that at face value.

    Perhaps I am not alone in thinking that the weight attached to leadership ratings is sometime bigger than it should be.

  26. oldnat

    ROFL and commissioned by the lefty grauniad.

    Can’t wait for the Torygraph equivalent.

  27. I know it was on the other thread, but The Other Howard made a post that was too good, too right and about too important a subject not to agree with wholeheartedly

    Cricket is the finest of all sports, and Test cricket the finest expression of it (although personally I have a deep and abiding love of county cricket).

    I don’t have confidence in the current England coaching setup to identify and develop the best Test quality talent England can produce. We spend too much time picking technically-suspect biff merchants, unfortunately.

    Although obviously that last para would change markedly if the selectors saw reason and picked more Lancashire players.

  28. 28th!! I think.

  29. oldnat

    No sign of anything new on the Prof’s sit – not even the YouGov of this morning – also absent here?

    I suspect the Prof will also plead Saltirelessness and leave well alone.

  30. @Chris Riley

    “Cricket is the finest of all sports, and Test cricket the finest expression of it (although personally I have a deep and abiding love of county cricket).”

    Four day county cricket is my abiding love too and I’m very much a T20 sceptic, immune to it’s dubious quick-thrill charms. Test match cricket can be the pinnacle of the game but for every classic match or series there is a glut of one-sided non-events played out in deserted stadiums. There’s just far too much of it these days , not to mention the accompanying 50 overs series and tournaments. Accordingly, this orgy of international cricket has strangled the life out of domestic cricket, robbing it of its best players and relegating its competitions to the status of mere supporting sideshows.

    Accordingly, I’ve become alienated from much of what passes for cricket now and I rekindle my love of the game by occasional visits to my beloved New Road to watch Worcester play. A pint or two of cider here and there in the shade of the old horse chestnut trees, my reverie disturbed hourly by the melodic chimes of the ancient cathedral bells. And, if I’m lucky, I’ll be watching local Evesham boy and Villa fan, Daryll Mitchell, scoring some pleasant runs, either in a blaze of midsummer sun or, more typically, on a mellow early autumn September day.

    I often ponder whether cricket is my first love or football. I suppose I love them both, really, child as I am of those rose-tinted days when the football boots went into the loft in April to be replaced by the cricket kit, and then the process was reversed in September. However whereas I’ve become a little alienated from cricket of late, I can’t kick the football addiction. It’s a deeply flawed game with much to abhor, riven with greed and myopic self interest. And yet and yet and yet, as they say, the game endures somehow. Endlessly beguiling and, at it’s best, almost impossibly beautiful to watch, I remain a hopeless addict, a slave to its ceaseless capacity to enthral and appal in equal measure. Its ultimate saving grace is that it remains, at its core, the best ball game man ever invented. No other game could survive the idiocy and excess that perpetually surrounds it and despite all that, almost miraculously, whenever I go to watch I still recognise that wonderful game I fell in love with as a four year old kicking a ball around with my brother in the garden, me always Jimmy Greaves, him always Gordon Banks. The magic lives on.

    Cricket and football, our two national sports and I love them both dearly. I many ways they’ve formed the soundtrack of my life and they’ve both helped to keep me sane these 58 rumbustious years,

  31. We could do with some more dedicated European VI polls so that we can understand the results better come May.

  32. Shame that there has been nothing in today’s polls capable of being discussed here, so that we are reduced to reading about some sporting activity.

    At this rate, we will be treated to extensive discussion of the polling implications of the incident in today’s Wonga v Cash Converters footie.

  33. a love of sport puts someone in the same category as a love of animals.
    they cant be all bad.
    even local tribal competition is better than war.
    when I was relatively young –about 40 years ago– I went to watch brighton play crystal palace at the old sadly missed goldstone ground.
    coins were flowing freely from both sections.
    I felt some sharp pains and saw blood flowing profusely from a head cut.
    I then remember seeing a pair of very shiny boots as I was on the ground. a very young very pale policeman said I needed to go to the medical section.
    I explained that I hadn’t filled my pockets with the money and could we wait.
    he was adamant and looked sick just staring at the blood dripping on my jacket.
    I grabbed a few more hand fulls and he took me to the first aid. in there was a palace supporter also blooded. we had a friendly chat about the game and then left for our respective compounds and the chanting and coin throwing.
    I had pleasure when I got home of asking my former wife ,who didn’t approve of much that I did, whether blood washes easily out of leather.
    for the record it does.

  34. CBII

    “Cricket and football, our two national sports and I love them both dearly. I many ways they’ve formed the soundtrack of my life and they’ve both helped to keep me sane these 58 rumbustious years,”

    I thought you were bonkers?

  35. Just watching some RT news Re: Ukraine and Crimea.

    It looks more complicated than perhaps our media has represented it.

  36. As we seemingly now have to discuss sport may I say that Roger Federer has
    Just won the Dubai tennis championship,and Andy Murray was beaten In the
    Semi finals in Acapulco,by Grigor Dimitrov,known as baby Fed,because his
    Style of play is rather similar to the great man.

  37. Just saw this tweeted, and thought it might be of interest for the anoraks here:

    ‘Lord Owen backs Miliband for PM, saying “unless there is a change of Government the NHS in England will be completely destroyed by 2020″‘

    Well, look who’s come crawling back!

  38. CON 34 LAB 38 LD 9 UKIP 12

  39. All a bit four or fiveish at present

  40. Well, look who’s come crawling back!
    —————
    Maybe Lord Owen feels that the Labour Party is now where he wanted it to be 20 years ago. But he could have stayed & worked to change it; it might’ve got there a bit more quickly had he stayed.

  41. Mr Nameless

    Is that because he would prefer to see the word “completely” replaced by “largely”, or that he would prefer a different date to “2020”?

  42. I thought Farage’s speech the other day was unusually impressive, although I can’t believe enough people watched or listened to it to affect the polls much.

  43. @Amber

    Right, but I think it was 30 years ago! Doesn’t time fly when you’re….
    fighting the forces of reaction.

  44. Lord Owen has also apparently donated £7,500

  45. ‘Lord Owen backs Miliband for PM,

    Shirley Williams next, maybe? Dear old Roy Jenkins is sadly departed but Bill Rodgers is still with us, I believe. What about the Gang of Three, as they now are, playing a reunion gig at the next Labour Conference?

    Opening number could be a cover of the Jimmy Ruffin classic; “What becomes of the broken hearted?”

    All that’s left is an unhappy ending.

  46. @Guymonde

    The median of the last 5YGs is 5, so I’d say fivish.*
    Interesting that the median of last 5 YG Labour is 39, so the reduction of Labour lead is due to Tory catchup if there is anything happening under the noise.

    *I can do hard sums using a computer, but I don’t usually think there’s much point.

  47. I don’t have the data to hand, but I think a little of the Con vote that seeped to UKIP may be coming back

  48. “I think a little of the Con vote that seeped to UKIP may be coming back”

    Must be to do with the immigration figures

  49. @Amber

    Lord Owen is a proven warmonger and, had he been a member of the LDs today, would probably have been an Orange Booker He has far more in common with Blair than Milliband.

    David Steel on the other hand is probably closer to Miliband. Even though he was never a member of the SDP.

  50. “Warmonger” – now there’s a nice, unloaded way to describe someone.

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