Today’s twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, full tabs here. Given it’s the last day of the month we can look at YouGov’s averages for the whole of February, which gives us figures of CON 33.2%(33.0% in Jan), LAB 38.9%(38.7% in Jan), LDEM 9.3%(9.2% in Jan), UKIP 11.8%(12.5% in Jan), so no real movement month-on-month.


164 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. NEILA

    It certainly seems that way I agree.

    What really gets to me is the relaxed pace we adopt. Obama seemed to be making his words up as he spoke. UN & EUmeet next week some time.
    Meantime Putin is off down the track getting it sorted.

    I don’t think we are REALLY engaged at all.

    I understand that the Budapest Memorandum, signed as part of the deal that saw Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons in 1994.provides for the US, UK and Russia to all agree to protect the sovereignty and “territorial agreement” of Ukraine,-ie any Russian support for an attempt to declare Crimean independence would be in violation of their international obligations

    What value can be placed on these pieces of paper if we just ignore them when it matters.?

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  2. Yes Colin – best to get mobilised and steam in.

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  3. Neil,

    Despite new thread, I will respond to your comment on Ukraine here.

    Firstly, there are currently No Ukrainian authorities. The legitimate government has imploded and some groups, of untested popular support, have filled the vacuum in Kiev, but do not exercise control over the entire country. True, this unsatisfactory situation could only be resolved by new country-wide elections, and these do not look likely in the short term.

    More importantly, the Ukraine is not a homogenous country with defined historic borders. In fact, quite the opposite is true. This is why the international community needs to focus on whether to support the territorial integrity of the Ukraine – or not.

    Should the possibility of the Crimea being allowed to secede and join Russia be accepted, then this immediately opens the same question for every other border region in the country – most of which have historic ethnic and political links as part of neighbouring countries. Why should secession be an option for Crimea, but not Lvov, Pripat, Ruthenia and Bessarabia – never mind the eastern Don regions ?

    Therein lies the greatest threat of escalating regional instability.

    I don’t doubt that the Kremlin is fully aware of this. Equally, Russia has most to gain from an orderly break-up of the Ukraine: both in terms of regaining “Russian” territory which Stalin voluntarily included within the Ukraine; and also from having a bunch of fledgling republics unsure whether to remain independent or join with their historic mother countries.

    Moscow did not manufacture the crisis in Ukraine, but I doubt Putin will allow a good opportunity go to waste.

    Paul

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  4. @Paul H-J

    It’s clearly a very complex situation which could do with cool, mature heads on all sides.

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  5. PAUL CROFT

    :”Yes Colin – best to get mobilised and steam in.”

    I disagree.

    Military action is unthinkable-but Russia is not without other vulnerabilities -diplomatically & econmomically

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  6. RAF,

    Sadly, there don’t seem to have been many of those in the chancelleries of Europe in recent weeks. Quite why some EU leaders thought it was clever to pledge public support to protesters aiming to bring down an elected government, however incompetent, beats me. They certainly weakened the ability of the EU to play a constructive role in bringing about peaceful evolutionary change.

    The US has not been too clever either.

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  7. ‘The only really meaningful response is to fight fire with fire, and we’re simply not going to do that. If it was Serbia, or Iraq, we’d be threatening military action. The Russias and Chinas of this world are immune from that threat.’

    Absolutely true – as is the case with the USA and UK. The Iraq war showed that very clearly indeed.

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  8. Ukraine has a pretty large army of its own which is said to be better-trained than Russia’s so don’t think an invasion is likely. Even an occupation of the Crimea is likely to be messy.

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  9. @Graham,

    I agree that the US is immune. I don’t think we are.

    Suez taught us that major military actions have to be supported, or at least acquiesced to, by the Americans.

    Unlike Russia, China or the US we’re not important enough to ignore world opinion. We have precious little natural resources, are not self-sufficient in food and noone’s economy (apart from maybe Ireland’s) is going to collapse if they throw us out of the “community of nations”.

    @Paul,

    I more or less agree, but I’d add a caveat. There are no Ukraine-wide authorities. Authority rests with those who control the levers of power. If the army and police force are obeying you, you are the authorities. From my understanding, that is true of about 60% of Ukrainian territory.

    There are already effectively provisional authorities in Western Ukraine, and in Eastern/Southern Ukraine. I haven’t seen any evidence that any part of Ukraine is currently lawless and out of control.

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  10. @RogerH,

    There are worryingly belligerent noises coming from the new Ukrainian figureheads. I really hope they back off. To use force, against someone as powerful as Russia, to try and regain control over regions where you have very little local support, would be crazy.

    And quality of armed forces is only one of the factors. I expect Russia’s forces would outnumber Ukraine’s by a factor of ten. And unlike Ukraine, Russia has the money to pay for the materiel necessary to sustain the campaign. Ukraine would not even be able to replenish her missiles and shells, never mind fuel her vehicles.

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  11. ‘Unlike Russia, China or the US we’re not important enough to ignore world opinion’

    @Neil A

    Really? We pretty well ignored world opinion when it came to aggression against Iraq!

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  12. My understanding is that they have substantial support in Crimea and that even ethic Russians aren’t necessarily in favour of secession.

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  13. NEILA

    @” I expect Russia’s forces would outnumber Ukraine’s by a factor of ten.”

    A bit less simple than that it seems& perhaps not the Russian pushover one might have imagined.-an interesting analysis here.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-finds-its-forces-are-ill-equipped-to-take-crimea-back-from-russia.html?_r=0

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  14. @Graham,

    I think you’ll find it was the US that invaded Iraq. We just tagged along.

    Not in a million years would we have been allowed to attack Iraq if the US had not wanted us to.

    @RogerH,

    That’s probably true. Certainly it is in terms of the Tatars in Crimea. But of course we’ll never know, because there is a snowball’s chance in hell of any authentic attempt to ask the people their views. And if there was war, precedent would suggest that communities would rapidly polarise and that pro-Russian elements who are currently anti-secession would probably fall into line with their compatriots (much like Roman Catholics in Northern Ireland, many of whom were quite sympathetic to the Union before the Troubles).

    @Colin,

    Good article, although on balance it seems to conclude that Ukraine doesn’t really have the hardware or the money to fend off the Russians.

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