This morning’s YouGov/Sun daily polling results are here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. Two noteworthy things in the regular trackers – one, the gap between the people blaming the government for the cuts (29%) and the people blaming Labour (33%) is the lowest YouGov have had so far. Two, people appear to be getting less worried, the 63% of people who say they worry about having enough money to live on is the lowest they’ve shown since the election, so is the 53% who worry about losing their job or having difficulty finding work. Both are presumably a sign of economic optimism continuing to creep slowly upwards.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll yesterday had figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.


590 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. Bantams,
    My husband thinks Otters are splendid and my daughter who is a great wild
    Life photographer and artist is currently working on a painting,of them.So that
    Is very good news indeed.

  2. Spearmint,

    I don’t think it’s easy to explain the decline of the main parties, but I simply note some plausible causal connections.

    I don’t know enough about the finer points of German politics to make a judgement.

    Regional politics are very different. Obviously a party can win >40% in specific parts of the country; the challenge that the main two parties have struggled with, really since 1992 is doing that nationally. Labour’s 43.2% and 40.7% in 1997 and 2001 were impressive as swings from before, but only insofar as one ignores the meltdown of the Tories and the immense desire for change in that period, as well as the terrific performance of Labour during those years in marketing policies/controlling the debate, and the very amenable economic conditions of 1997-2001.

    Of course, I’m not saying that neither party ever will even win >40% again (I have no idea) but rather that I’m unconvinced that it is as likely as most people seem to assume. 35-37% (which is where both parties may end up in 2015, with a little pro-government swing) may turn out to be what the main parties regard as good elections.

  3. @ Ann in Wales

    Thought the gag was going into moderation, it certainly deserved to be. AW’s obviously not noticed it yet.

    An expert says there are signs otters and beavers have bumped into each other on the river which will be the first time in about 400 years in England.

    Might be worth your daughter taking her camera to Devon!

  4. I seem to remember in the 1980s it was inconceivable that Labour would ever get into government again.

    At the moment politics – from whatever party – is discredited with the public, and we are in a very negative, frustrated, impotent era. We’re short of inspiring leaders and inspiring ideas and with neither it’s hard to see where a strong movement in the polls will come from.

    I suppose the nearest we have to inspiring leaders are probably Boris and Salmond, and the latter has an inspiring (to some) idea as well. So perhaps that’s why they are to a degree the exceptions to prove a rule. I don’t know enough about Scotland to comment on whether Salmond has actually delivered. Boris appears to me to have had very little in the way of a programme and even less in terms of delivering positive change but his personal charisma means he is still popular. The national party leaders don’t have charisma at that level and thus far their ideas seem to be about managing decline (though I’m hopeful Labour will rise above that, they haven’t yet)

    I think when we get a party with either a programme or a leader that catches the imagination of the nation, particularly if both coincide, we could well see >40%

  5. I like a nice beaver.

  6. People will insist on using UK figures – despite the fact that polling data is almost invariably provided on a GB basis!
    In 1997 Labour polled 44.3% in Great Britain – in 2001 the vote share fell to 42.0%.

  7. @RosieandDaisie

    “I like a nice beaver”

    I thought they were all nice, but you’ve obviously had some less favourable encounters.

    Talking of the furry variety of beaver, I gather the Environment Agency are thinking employing a few of the little blighters. They have a reputation for hard work apparently, unlike most civil servants, and by building their rather eye-catching dams and lodges, cause localised inundation upriver, decreasing the amount of water that then flows down into more populated and cultivated areas.

    They’re more than just a pretty face, you know.

  8. @ R&D

    How do you prefer them, roasted or baked?

  9. Graham,

    Right, but looking just at the GB figures simply means that the Labour/Tory vote has been disappearing from a higher base.

  10. @guymonde

    Do leaders inspire ideas, or ideas leaders?

    In one sense we are still living through ‘the end of history’ which was the collapse of the great communist/socialist dream. Labour is a shadow of its former self in terms of having an ideology.
    The Tories have usually been agin ‘ideology’. Their two main problems are: that there is no ‘ideology’ to defend themselves from; and they have lost any sense of being the natural party of government (in their own eyes, that is) with its accompanying attitude of ‘noblesse oblige’. Am I right in saying that Cameron replaced Douglas Hurd in Witney? If I’m right, doesn’t that say it all?

    The only ‘ideology’ doing the rounds at the moment is that of a certain form of independence, which we ought not to mention on this particular thread.

  11. And when did this site become Springwatch?

  12. @Colin

    “…the polls tell you that there is no demographic or combination of individuals in the UK which can deliver for the Conservative Party a majority / 40% of VI … ( I forget the precise detail) . The Conservative Party has become a historic relic & they can never ever win a GE ever again.”

    You have a persistent habit of parodying the arguments of those who disagree with you. It’s not an attractive trait and quite often reduces what starts off as intelligent debate into silliness and yahboo.

    It’s a great shame, really.

  13. It’s the 114th anniversary of the Labour Party today, I’ve learned. I do wonder what Keir Hardie would make of it.

  14. JOHN B

    “Do leaders inspire ideas, or ideas leaders?”

    Good question. I suppose they go hand in hand. I think leaders with conviction give life to ideas which otherwise might go nowhere. Equally, a leader without ideas is going nowhere, whatever their personal attributes.

  15. Bill Patrick,

    Yes that is true – but much – if not all – the decline in Labour/Tory support is a result of much more intervention by other parties. It’s not particularly realistic to make comparisons with -say – the 1951 and 1955 elections when the Liberals fought less than 20% of the seats! For many years, both the bigger parties received many second preference votes from people denied the opportunity to vote for their most favoured party.

  16. “It’s a great shame, really.”

    No its not.

    …………………………………………………………………………………..

    Re your question Bantams, I prefer them au naturel – naturally, that’s the whole point.

  17. @MrNameless

    For a start, KH would have been baffled by the unwillingness of Labour to support Devo-Max or even the Independence movement!

    He would also have been rather perplexed by the fact that Labour has ceased to be a working class movement in many places and is, instead, run by middle class intellectuals like……

    And that, to some extent, is what the Falkirk mess was about.

    He would also have wondered what had happened to the strong Christian input into the party – though that survives to some extent.

  18. Would the loss of produce from agricultural land flooded by beavers be made up for by the nutritional value of beaver stew?

  19. @ John B

    Re: Springwatch

    Sometimes UKPR goes through a TMS style “anything but polling” phase.

  20. And the warmth which comes form clothes made of beaver fur?

  21. If we read the minutes of the LRC foundation in Memorial Hall, Farringdon Street, we learn Hardie wanted a socialistic, not Socialist party.

    He also wanted a party that appealed to all classes; J. Burns mocked the ‘working class boots, working class clothes’ attitude of the SDF, whose leader was an old boy of Eton. Burns asked what they would do if a navvy became a building contractor.

    28th Feb 1974. Ted asked Who runs Britain…

  22. @Graham

    The rise of the Liberal party from its post- war slumbers can be dated to when, precisely? I have a vague memory of my father expressing shock at a GE sometime (1974?) when the Liberal vote suddenly increased to levels not seen in over thirty years.

  23. 5 game ban for Anelka. That’s ridiculous.

  24. @AW

    I was only following the TMS lead offered by RAF………
    Don’t blame me if the polls refuse to do anything interesting!

  25. John B,

    The Liberals were saved from the jaws of oblivion at the Orpington by-election in 1962. They got a big boost in 1974 partly because of Jeremy Thorpe being likeable and partly as “The Alternative”.

  26. Changing the subject, one wonders if there is enough love in the world to make up for the vast quantities of hate.

    I also wonder whether a common world language – English would clearly have been best – would have made a difference.

    If I’d invented the world that’s the bit I’d have insisted on.

    Did anyone spot the Australian crystal news that shows the world was ready for population 47 BILLION years ago?

    Shows what an ole slacker god is:

    “Oh…. I can’t be bothered ….. its gunna take at least a week, and that’s if I only take one day off at the weekend.”

    He could have at least got the amphibians started a bit quicker.

  27. “Not you !”
    Was the favourite response iirc.

  28. “And the warmth which comes form clothes made of beaver fur?”

    This is getting silly.

  29. That was for Chrislane. Not God.

  30. @R&D

    Not half as silly as confusing billions with millions. The universe is only 13 billion years old.
    And I’m pretty sure that God, being eternal, can take as long as he wants!
    English as the universal language has its good points, though why not enjoy the variety?

  31. @Mr Nameless

    Yes, Orpington – a bit like Hamilton.
    But as you say, the real take off wan’t until the 1970s; and then they survived the Jeremy Thorpe debacle (when?) and teamed up with the Gang of Four.
    I remember David Steele’s speech about ‘preparing for government’. !983?

    Will they survive the present problems and emerge once again as a credible force? I think they will.

  32. Dam, I wish I hadn’t started this.

  33. The late50s saw the first signs of revival under Jo Grimond – winning the Torrington by-election in 1958 and increasing their % vote share in 1959 to circa 5.5% by contesting over 200 seats.

  34. Any other animals which might be reintroduced to solve current political problems?

  35. Graham,

    Oh, I quite agree. In fact, “the two main parties are in secular decline” and “Britain is moving away over the long-term from a two-party system” are equivalent.

    Note how even the collapse of the LDs hasn’t restored the two main parties to their former glories, but rather corresponded with the meteoric rise of a FOURTH party.

  36. And, of course, in Scotland where we already havea four party system, it looks like Labour will actually lose ground in 2015 after a very credible performance in 2010, but I don’t think one should mix up regional and national trends if it can be avoided.

  37. Twitter Sun: 5% lead

  38. CON 34%
    LAB 39%
    LD 8%
    UKIP 12%

    Right on time – Oh Clegg, what happened?

  39. John B

    Bulgarians? Not sure that counts as a reintroduction though.

  40. john b

    “Not half as silly as confusing billions with millions. The universe is only 13 billion years old.”

    Well, get you with your facts.

    Crystal is ‘oldest scrap of Earth crust’Zircon Zircons are tough pieces of old rock incorporated into newer material Continue reading the main story
    Related Stories
    Parts of ancient continent found
    Scratching the surface of the Moon
    Team finds Earth’s ‘oldest rocks’

    “A tiny 4.4-billion-year-old crystal has been confirmed as the oldest fragment of Earth’s crust.

    The zircon was found in sandstone in the Jack Hills region of Western Australia.”

    Above from the BBC.

    Its actually well known that millions, billions, trillions and zillions are all just shorthand for “Lots and lots” and no-one ever bothers with what they mean.

  41. @BillPatrick

    Scotland is a nation, not a ‘region’!
    But I agree with your (and Graham’s) general point on four party situation.
    Not so sure on whether Scottish Labour will slip further back in 2015. So much depends on one or two major issues to be resolved over the next seven months or so and what the scenery looks like once the dust has settled. And does Johann Lamont look like a First Minister? I’m still not sure, though she’s landed a few punches this week.

  42. Anyone lucky enough to be able to see the Northern Lights? Supposed to be visible in Norfolk & parts of the West Coast.

  43. 20% of Lib Dem voters bugger off overnight.

    Anyway, we’re off to Bamburgh for the weekend.

  44. I assume that, before May 2015 DC will have to say “These are the things we want changed about the EU/UK relationship and these are our “red lines” ??

    Otherwise what will he be campaigning on?

    Looks a tricky thing to do to me as we know he can’t get remotely like what his party want – if anything at all.

    Would he really want to campaign to leave? Probably not.

    Would he really be able to campaign to stay if the negotiations didn’t suit his party? Probably not.

    Short term expediency has scuppered a lot of people before this and it would do the same.

    The only saving thingy is that he won’t be in power to try to square circles.

  45. John B,

    It’s a national and a region. When the Scottish development agency becomes “national policy” rather than “regional policy”, I’ll change this phrasing.

    The only way I can see Labour improving on 2015 is if the SNP collapse into infighting and disrepute after a failed independence referendum, and that doesn’t seem likely right now.

  46. @Pups

    please keep quiet about your weekend. We locals prefer the solitude and don’t want the area overrun with visitors.

  47. @Peter Bell

    Malory’s naming of Bamburgh as the original site of “Joyous Garde” only makes sense when you see the place. You’re very lucky.

  48. peter

    Don’t give me your address online but, if you are on the beach this weekend and see a good-looking bloke with a border terrier and a mini-schnoodle, then someone’s nicked me pups.

    No……. that will be me of course so do say hello.

  49. I always forget that on Thursday you’re all glued to QT.

    Very sad: sets the pups off barking.

    Me too actually – I hate it deeply.

  50. Paul,
    Unfortunately not that local – I am a toonie (as I am sure you are aware it’s about 50 mile south of Bamburgh) but as a keen walker I spend much time on the Northumberland coast and in the Cheviots. Not out over the weekend so won’t have the pleasure of meeting you and the pups.

    Enjoy your weekend – I ‘m sure the pups will love that expanse of the most beautiful beach in England.

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