This morning’s YouGov/Sun daily polling results are here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. Two noteworthy things in the regular trackers – one, the gap between the people blaming the government for the cuts (29%) and the people blaming Labour (33%) is the lowest YouGov have had so far. Two, people appear to be getting less worried, the 63% of people who say they worry about having enough money to live on is the lowest they’ve shown since the election, so is the 53% who worry about losing their job or having difficulty finding work. Both are presumably a sign of economic optimism continuing to creep slowly upwards.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll yesterday had figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.


590 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. ROBBIE

    That sounds like a BBC seque !

  2. @ Colin

    I think we can both agree that the opinion which matters is that of the Ukrainian Government & people.
    ——————
    But the Ukranian Government has been removed without an election & an unelected temporary government has installed itself. And I do not think that the Ukrainian people have one mind on this so it would be their opinions rather than opinion.

    Also, I have never seen a vote of the ‘receiving’ people taken before the US, European nations etc. get involved. We must rely on the US, UK, German, French etc. populations to make known our opinion regarding any potential intervention by our Governments.

  3. Looks like we could do with the Populus poll before some people here have to get treatment for email damage. I never cross with Amber; it only ends in tears, mine. (Mind you, in my case they are of laughter).

  4. Amber
    Might l suggest we wait for some polling then? On Ukraine that is?
    Otherwise , Colin will succeed in painting you into a pro Putin corner.

  5. @ Colin
    And your comment wasn’t a segue?
    You moved quite irrelevantly from the DM to the BBC!

  6. @ Howard

    I never cross with Amber; it only ends in tears, mine. (Mind you, in my case they are of laughter).
    ————-
    I’m always happy to hear that I make people laugh. :-)

  7. @ Ewen Lightfoot

    Might l suggest we wait for some polling then? On Ukraine that is?
    Sometimes people have to show they are interested before a polling question will be asked.
    Otherwise , Colin will succeed in painting you into a pro Putin corner.
    I do not mind being pushed into a corner. It says more about the pusher than it does about me. But I thank you for you concern, it is genuinely appreciated.

  8. The recent death of Shirley Temple revived G. Greene’s famous ’37 review of her films, pointing out, almost for the first time, the sexualisation of children for adult-male enjoyment.

    Eg., “in Wee Willie Winkie, wearing short kilts, she is completely totsy. . . . hear the gasp of excited expectation from her antique audience when she measures a man with agile studio eyes, with dimpled depravity. Adult emotions of love and grief glissade across the mask of childhood.” etc.

    Tho he does appear to blame the child rather than the men who manipulated the images.

  9. AMBER

    I anticipated your response.

    We may see legitimacy tested soon. The Kiev administration has gone to UN over the Russian intervention.

    Clearly you are correct about the absence of “one mind” in Ukraine. The historic cultural & ethnic divisions & the Soviet era construction of this “country” seem about to cause the strife which most people feared.

    Russian tv is reporting a Referendum date in Crimea for separation.

    Let us hope that bloodshed is minimised.

  10. ROBBIE

    OK-ITV then-or C4.
    C4 more likely.

  11. Amber Star

    I’m afraid that my generous 70% was indeed generous, you actually scored a poor 20% but I leant at my mothers knee to be kind to ladies.

    Your second attempt was a complete failure, no score at all.

  12. Colin

    “They got what they wanted I think .”

    Yes I think that’s right. Like you I also don’t think it will have much if any effect on polling. I formed my own opinion of HH and co in the 70’s and it hasn’t changed.

  13. @ T’Other Howard,

    How lucky we are to have you to score us! It’s like the Winter Olympics all over again.

  14. On the DM campaign against HH and others, I fully agree with Colin it’s all preaching to the converted and won’t impact VI. On the other hand, what might impact the DM’s ability in the future to influence opinion, is that the collateral damage of their onslaught appears to have landed on them. Exposing to those who don’t spend time on Mail Online the sexual exploitation of young girls they engage in today, not 40 years ago. I was a bit surprised that nobody on QT last night demanded that Melanie Philips apologise for that, to make a point, but like Amber I don’t think we should engage in a witch hunt and demand all those who support or work for the DM to apologise for Dacre’s editorial decisions. An apology from him would suffice. On the plus side, I imagine it will be a little while at least before they next publish bikini shots of young girls posing provocatively and looking “beyond their years”.

  15. Oh my, I loved the 70s. I was at London University – Bedford College which was in Regent’s Park. We had sit ins, love ins , demos- you name it, we had it.

    And what about those hot summers?
    I can remember sitting in the shade drinking Pimms and watching tennis on our grass courts.
    Those were the days.
    Not sure what its got to do with polling but there you go.
    I suppose you could call it memories of a baby boomer.

  16. Spearmint,

    No problem,any time.

    Alex F

    In my view the D Mail has absolutely nothing to apologise for, but you wont agree on that.
    As far as the Daily Mail itself is concerned I actually think that the effect will be positive.

  17. Valerie

    I loathed the 70’s for the reasons I gave earlier but personally they were good for me. Having started as a junior chemist in 1962 I became a production director in 1971 and enjoyed my battles with the Trade Unions in subsequent years, despite the power the Unions had then. I was also able to afford to send my daughters to private school which proved good for their development.

  18. @ Colin

    The Kiev administration has gone to UN over the Russian intervention.
    —————
    The UN may be forced to reply that there has not been a Russian intervention. The alternative version is that there is a people’s militia in Crimea protecting the region from a coup which has invalidated the present government in Kiev.

    Would regions of the UK do the same, were David Cameron & his cabinet forced from office by protestors in London? I hope we would push back against such a ‘coup’ happening whether we like the current government or not.

  19. TOH & Valerie

    It’s ’70s, not 70’s, or indeed 70s. Unless Valerie you are referring to the delights of being a septugenarian .

  20. Or if you prefer Septuagenarian

  21. Colin

    Looking at the Ukraine situation coming after Geogia, it seems to me that the fringes of the old USSR are becoming the “new Balkans” with all the danger that entails.

  22. TOH

    “In my view the D Mail has absolutely nothing to apologise for,”

    What? Not even its support for the blackshirts?

  23. No populus yet? Can’t believe the HH ‘story’ is going here still

  24. @ AlexF
    “On the plus side, I imagine it will be a little while at least before they next publish bikini shots of young girls posing provocatively and looking “beyond their years”.

    Yes public debates can take unexpected turns & this one publicises something the anti-Harmonites are intellectually incapable of facing: the fact that the tabloids’ sexualisation of kids/young females has a more baleful effect on sexual behaviour than whatever it is that Harman is supposed to have done.

  25. AMBER

    I note your reply & understand your particular stance on this.

    It is one which I fully expected, having read your comments over time.

    It won’t surprise you , equally, to learn that my stance & sympathies differ from yours.

    BBC now reporting Russian helicopters involved in Crimea.

    The situation is fraught with danger & I hope to god no one pulls the trigger by accident.

  26. Mrs Brookes has apologised for the Sun’s “cruel & harsh” vilification of Clare Short.

  27. The Daily Mail also needs to apologise, profusely, for stoking up the MMR panic because a quack and some unpleasant pressure group oddballs gulled a bunch of stupid and unscrupulous hacks and editors.

    Then there’s British Leyland and the Zinoview Letter (the latter an open-and-shut case of actual, proper treason and the former arguably also the same).

  28. TOH

    An Expert from Chatham house was on DP.

    She made two points of particular interest.

    Putin pulled this trick in Georgia-protection of Russians.

    Crimea is not simply a Russian supporting part of Ukraine-the Tatars , whose homeland is there, are supporters of “Ukraine”-not Russia, with whom they have an unpleasant history.

    The Swiss authorities now reported following up Yanukovytch assets on a money laundering investigation. Wonder how much he took with him ?

  29. COLIN
    “The historic cultural & ethnic divisions & the Soviet era construction of this “country” seem about to cause the strife which most people feared.”
    First to the facts as at present reported: armed troops in unmarked uniforms have occupied the control towers of the Simferopol civil airport and of the Sevastopol military airports in the Crimea, which otherwise are operating normally. There is no evidence that they are or have the capbility fo,r or intent to, control air movements or normal use of the airports.
    One minister in the Ukraine government has declared that this in a Russian occupation, but this and other statements by individual politicians are part of the “rhetoric” according to the phraseology used by the BBC. The reality probably is that these are Russian troops intentially kept out of uniform to permit denial or even avoidance of the appearance of a sanctioned Russian intervention. Instead it is a holding operation, which would permit Russian intervention (a) in defense of the Russian population which are the majority in the East of the country in case they are threatened by poorly contrrolled incursion from the west, and (b) in case
    negotiations or a peaceful settlement break down.
    The Russian government’s participation in talks on IMF and EU financial support for the Ukraine in a situation of economic and financial collapse indicates that Russia prefers the status quo, in which the association of the Ukraine with or accession to the EU (for which the EC has worked for the past 25 years under the TACIS programme) remains a possibility.
    Putin will, I think, be weighing up the relative advantages maintaining the position of Ukraine as a bridge to the EU markets and the alternative of the secession of the East to create an independent state with political and economic ties to the Russian Federation. Both possibilities would suggest that Russia will use its influence to avoid civil, and certainly wider, conflict, but will provide what is virtually a policing operation, to keep some measure of control in the East.

  30. JOHN PILGRIM

    Your view seems closer to Amber’s than mine.

    As to “the facts”-I will rely on my own interpretation of such reports as are available thanks.

  31. Norbold & Chris Riley

    Just loved your response. LOL.

  32. The Swiss authorities now reported following up Yanukovytch assets on a money laundering investigation. Wonder how much he took with him ?
    —————-
    Enough to pay the Ukraine’s gas bill?

  33. Colin

    Thanks for that, illuminating. It appears that the discussion on the Ukraine is starting to become a right left discussion which surprises me.

  34. COLIN
    “I will rely on my own interpretation of such reports as are available thanks”

    My post was not intended to be polemical. In what respects did you think I was interpreting rather than stating the reported facts?
    If your interpretation is that there is about to be a civil war in thew Ukraine and that the Russin government or army will take part in it, state your evidence.

  35. Robbiealive

    From your last post you could not have been alive in the 70s as Colin and I were. I could not disagree with you more, the so called sexual revolution of the 60s and 70s whilst doing some good for some minorities like homosexuals also did enormous harm as seen in the decline of the family in society.

  36. @COLIN

    “As to “the facts”-I will rely on my own interpretation of such reports as are available thanks.”

    ———-

    That’s a given. It’s also a given that folk can post for others to read, even if you are not interested. If you only wish to read your own posts, you are free to do that too, though it’s a bit pointless…

  37. TOH

    Thanks-yes it does me too.

    John Pilgrim.

    I see no point in swapping interpretations of news reports on an event which is changing hourly.
    Let us hope that the aspirations of the ordinary people of Ukraine can all be realised without any more bloodshed than has already occurred in Kiev.

  38. BBC now reporting Russian helicopters involved in Crimea.
    ———————-
    Russian helicopters have always been in the Ukraine because:
    1. The Ukrainian army uses Russian helicopters; &
    2. There is a Russian army base there.

  39. @COLIN

    “I see no point in swapping interpretations of news reports on an event which is changing hourly.”

    ———

    So why have you been giving regular updates then? On a public board? It is normal for people to respond.

  40. Post Iraq the UK lacks moral authority to condemn any invasion.

  41. @TOH to Colin

    It appears that the discussion on the Ukraine is starting to become a right left discussion which surprises me.

    @Colin to TOH

    Thanks-yes it does me too.

    I think the surprise is you think it’s becoming a right left discussion. As an outside observer it looks to me to be a discussion between Colin / TOH, who have a startling level of faith in their own judgement and interpretation, and everybody else, who believe its a complicated and confusing situation and are sceptical of simplistic interpretations.

  42. AW – I had a lecture on Public Administration earlier in which we were discussing the structure and history of the European Union. Our lecturer used this very site’s election guide to show off the lists. Be proud – you’re temporarily famous amongst bored, sleepy* Sheffield students!

    *I wasn’t sleepy ’cause I actually care about this stuff, but I’m very much in the minority.

  43. SDC

    You forgot in to add IMO but I am sure both Colin and i agree with “who believe its a complicated and confusing situation and are sceptical of simplistic interpretations.” so what is your problem?

  44. You forgot in to add IMO but I am sure both Colin and i agree with “who believe its a complicated and confusing situation and are sceptical of simplistic interpretations.

    You hide it well. IMO

  45. SDC

    Your entitled to your opinion, have a good afternoon, cricket on Sky.

  46. MrNameless – one of my friend’s daughters goes to my old school and has my old politics teacher. I am told she plays them clips of me on Radio 4 and points to the seat I used to sit in.

  47. I can’t see the spot of bother down in the Ukraine having any effect on our VI whatsoever, so what’s the point of discussing it?

    By the way Amber you have me in tears with your wit, but I perhaps gave the wrong impression earlier, must learn to reread postings.

  48. @ SDC

    I agree with you; I think that most of us are trying to parse the facts from the rhetoric, ahead of the UK government stating ‘our’ position.

  49. As illustration of the point I just made, last night the vast majority of UK people who have heard of Ukraine were more interested in whether Spurs could overcome a nasty two goal deficit against Dnipro, which I learned is a suburb of Kiev, including an away goal.

  50. Could someone who has more knowledge tell me what if any is our reliance on energy shipped through Ukriane.

    There is always a scepticism that energy needs ‘realpolitic’ affects UK (and other) Governments foreign policy stances whoever is in power. (both Gulf wars being the obvious examples)

    A cross party consensus on the need to develop energy self sufficiency (or at least reduce reliance) should be possible.

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