This morning’s YouGov/Sun daily polling results are here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. Two noteworthy things in the regular trackers – one, the gap between the people blaming the government for the cuts (29%) and the people blaming Labour (33%) is the lowest YouGov have had so far. Two, people appear to be getting less worried, the 63% of people who say they worry about having enough money to live on is the lowest they’ve shown since the election, so is the 53% who worry about losing their job or having difficulty finding work. Both are presumably a sign of economic optimism continuing to creep slowly upwards.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll yesterday had figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.


590 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. Paul,
    Unfortunately not that local – I am a toonie (as I am sure you are aware it’s about 50 mile south of Bamburgh) but as a keen walker I spend much time on the Northumberland coast and in the Cheviots. Not out over the weekend so won’t have the pleasure of meeting you and the pups.

    Enjoy your weekend – I ‘m sure the pups will love that expanse of the most beautiful beach in England.

  2. Apologies, thought the 11.24 comment had not been sent so pressed submit again.

  3. Thanks Peter: they’ve been before and loved it.

  4. The bloody BBC clearly haven’t taken much notice of the four of us who complained to them, because they’re still prattling on about this Harman/Hewitt non-story as I type.

    I don’t know what Hewitt is thinking in issuing an apology. To apologise is to admit wrongdoing and this will only give this tedious non-story further legs.

  5. Indeed.
    It encourages Portillo to say ‘she apologised because there’s something to apologise for’

  6. Agree with the pups about Q Time but still watched it as it came from my nearest City tonight – Newport. Only came to life in last 10 minutes when the state of the NHS in Wales – and the unpopularity of devolution and the Assembly in our area – were forced onto the agenda by members of the audience. Poor Rashonara Ali found herself having to defend the indefensible and for some amazing reason there were no MPs or AMs on the panel from Wales largest, governing Party…

    I hope the Cracchach were watching in the Bay, although they do have a nasty habit of looking down their noses at the mongrels of Newport … and unfurtunately there is a 4 Party pro- Cracchach consensus operating at the moment. If the Q Time audience was representative then they could all be in for a nasty shock at the Euro elections – a second seat to UKIP who are picking up a lot of protest votes hereabouts.

  7. Two different tweets on Yougov poll last night:

    Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics · 9 hrs
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead now five points: CON 34%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

    YouGov [email protected] · 60 mins
    Update: Labour lead at 5 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 27th February – Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 12%, UKIP 11%

    Someone needs to be sacked!

  8. Just the Yougov tweet that seems to be wrong- their website has the same as the sun tweet.

  9. Dramatic Lib Dem revival

    lasts 2 minutes

  10. The last timeI I mentioned this, weekly earnings were back to 2004 levels, but that was taken from the ONS report last year, in the latest one average earnings are now back to 2002 levels

    From the ONS

    Adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index, UK weekly earnings for full-time employees fell each year between 2008 and 2013

    Weekly earnings decreased every year, by 8% in total, so that in April 2013 they were similar to the level seen in 2002

    h ttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_353368.pdf

    I believe the ASHE figures relate only to employees, not the self-employed, whose earnings have decreased even more accordig to the ONS.

    This would be a major reason why people are still so pessimistic about their financial situation according to the polls.

  11. Same problem with accessing You Gov table-yesterday’s still not accessible.

    This is daft.

  12. Sounds like Russia has invaded Ukraine.

  13. @DrukenScouser

    Hewitt apologised for bring misled by PIE’s stated objectives that they were a group interested in reforming and counselling paedophiles to ensure that they no longer represented a threat to society. In fact they were an entryist organisation.

    Hewitt, as I understand it was is a more senior position than Harman and unlike Harman and Dromey actually met with PIE. Does this prove any of the DM’s or the Sun’s allegations? No. In fact there is no evidence that even PIE even influenced Hewitt to change her then organisation’s policy. So it remains a smear, or at the very least a very speculative allegation.

    I also think that castigating a civil liberties organisation who engaged in the protection and rights of marginalised voiceless groups, for allowing an ostensibly legitimate group of that type to affiliate to it makes no sense, other than with hindsight. Clearly Hewitt was duped. And she has apologised for not having had the foresight at the time to realise this.

    But the newspapers involved in this matter are not interested in the details.

  14. Drunkrnscrouser

    “I don’t know what Hewitt is thinking in issuing an apology. To apologise is to admit wrongdoing and this will only give this tedious non-story further legs.”

    That’s your opinion. I was pleased to see Hewitt apologise and about time too.

  15. Email from YouGov this morning with a Survey.

    Clicking on the link produces an apology that it isn’t available.

    Have YouGov’s IT people gone on holiday?

  16. FLOATING VOTER

    Thanks
    Someone explained the surplus bit at the end, the other day.

    But its a pain not to be able to use the website as intended.

  17. RAF
    @”But the newspapers involved in this matter are not interested in the details.”

    Oh I think they are.

    I think you will find what DM has been looking for in its issue this morning :-

    Contrsting Hewitt’s apology with HH’s ” grudging expression of regret” , it says this :-

    ” Like so many on the left she holds the arrogant , invincible conviction that she can never be wrong-no matter how damning the evidence”

    It has obviously been waiting to be able to say this.

    Whether it has any political effect whatsoever seems highly doubtful to me.

    Those DM readers who remember the 70s & the casual trashing of their personal views about behaviour & responsibility of the individual , by a “right on ” clique of libertarians; will merely nod and think-I could have told you that without all this fuss.

    I think DM are talking to the converted on this one.

  18. Colin

    “Those DM readers who remember the 70s & the casual trashing of their personal views about behaviour & responsibility of the individual , by a “right on ” clique of libertarians; will merely nod and think-I could have told you that without all this fuss.

    I think DM are talking to the converted on this one.”

    Absolutely,one of the many reasons, including the dreadful Governments of both parties, that i loathed the 70’s.

  19. Bill Patrick

    LOL

  20. @Colin

    But what exactly should Harman apologise for? She never met with or had any involvement with PIE. Also she was not involved in accepting the PIE’s application for affiliation to her organisation, which happened before she joined.

    It seems to me that she has absolutely no case to answer. She shouldn’t simply apologise because the DM insists she should notwithstanding that they have got it wrong about her. They should apologise to her. Goodness they even accused her husband who publically criticised PIE in the 1970s. That’s what I mean by not being interested in the deta

    As for the lack of personal responsibility in the 1960s/70s, as I was born in the mid 70s, I would really have any first hand experience of this. My parents say the 60s were worse! Mind you if there was a dearth of individual responsibility in the 70s, there was an equal dearth of collective social responsibility in the 80s. The pundulum swung too far the other way and we are still dealing with the social consequences. For example civil freedoms have been incessently eroded.

  21. RAF

    ” there was an equal dearth of collective social responsibility in the 80s. The pundulum swung too far the other way and we are still dealing with the social consequences. For example civil freedoms have been incessently eroded.”

    Where were you living them? Communist China? I certainly don’t accept your view of the 80’s, a period when I was paricularly proud to be British.

  22. RAF

    As I said-I think the DM were angling for a crack at the Labour Party via an attack as what it perceives as the “Liberal Left’s” attitude to sexual freedoms in the 70s. Obviously this scenario can be placed in the context of recent revelations, and legal proceedings.

    I don’t say they are right or wrong in this campaign-though I obviously have a viewpoint.

    I won’t enter into an argument with you about the 70s -or the 60s -or the 80s. It would not get either of us anywhere worthwhile, and AW would no doubt intervene anyway.

  23. Sounds like Russia has invaded Ukraine.
    —————
    Russia has army bases in the Ukraine. They didn’t need to “invade”, they were already there.

  24. @ Colin,

    It has obviously been waiting to be able to say this.

    What I don’t understand is why it didn’t wait longer. They’ve been sitting on this story for decades (and certainly since December, when they first tried to run it), but they publish it two months before the nearest election?

    Slow news week, I guess, with just the trivial stuff like a revolution in the Ukraine to cover.

    Still, given all the tentacles PIE seemed to have everywhere I suppose they have enough material to keep it running for a while. I eagerly await David Cameron’s apology on behalf of the Government for that one bloke who was running a PIE helpline from inside Whitehall.

  25. RAF

    Sorry about the typo should be “particularly” Anyway I agree with Colin, you and I are not going to agree on those particular periods of history so lets move on. We have both had our say.

  26. I’m amazed that the Daily Mail wanted to create a platform for PIE. That may not have been their intention – but it was an easily foreseeable outcome of their so-called ‘investigation’. It has already led to PIE’s erstwhile leader speaking on radio shows & getting free ‘advertising’ for his organisation in the mass media.

    Are the people who applaud the Daily Mail happy to be on the same side as PIE now? They’re in pretty much the same position as Harriet Harman, if only they had the self-awareness to see & acknowledge that’s where they are. So would they like to apologise for ‘giving encouragement’ to this nasty organisation? Probably not.

  27. Amber Star

    I give you 70% for an attempted defence. LOL

  28. If we had a fair voting system, HH would have to engage with the public a little more – she wouldn’t just have a safe seat she could cruise through with.

    The same for the Tory safe seats too, obviously.

  29. AMBER

    @”Russia has army bases in the Ukraine. They didn’t need to “invade”, they were already there.”

    The local airport has been seized.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26380336

    Can’t wait for your defence case if/when ( god forbid) they move on Kiev.

  30. @ ToH

    But you have shown yourself to be breathtakingly ‘arrogant’ in thinking this is a laughing matter. By using LOL, you have condemned yourself etc. etc. No, of course I don’t really want people to think like that. But then I’m not a desperate newspaper out to destroy your career.

    So I’m willing to accept that you aren’t on the Daily Mail’s editorial team & you probably shouldn’t be expected to apologise for something outwith your control. And thank you for the 70%, very generous.

  31. SPEARMINT

    I can’t see the story having long legs.

    They got what they wanted I think .

    As I say , I think they are preaching to the converted by & large so don’t see much VI effect from this.

    Interesting that Hewitt is reported to have responded to DM , after “discussions” with one of the companies where she has a directorship-BT I think.

  32. Only comment from me on the DM
    Wouldn’t wipe my arse on it.

  33. @ Colin

    The local airport has been seized.
    The local airport is operating normally.

    Can’t wait for your defence case if/when ( god forbid) they move on Kiev.
    So stating a fact i.e. Russia has army bases in the Ukraine becomes a ‘defence case’ when filtered through your brain. You seem to be on a mission to rival Old Nat at imposing an aggressive, negative spin onto factual comments which I make.

  34. @RAF – “The pundulum swung too far…”

    Typo there I think.

    A ‘pundulum’ is a device first invented by Paul Croft to test whether or not jokes are funny. I understand it was loosely derived from John Snow’s swingometer, which was a device developed in the 1970’s to test the sexual morality of consenting adults.

    Or something like that. Whatever.

  35. @ Jim Jam,

    No… After all, you’d probably be wiping your arse on a photo of some poor twelve-year-old in a bikini. (I jest, I jest. I think most of the underage swimwear pics are confined to the Mail Online.)

    @ Colin,

    Yeah, it’s probably good for a week at most. I remain baffled why they decided to run it now, but then, it wouldn’t be the first of Paul Dacre’s editorial decisions to puzzle me.

  36. UKIP seems to have accidentally nicked an old BNP slogan (Love Britain. Vote BNP) for their spring conference. Oops.

    I’ve noticed that they don’t seem to be very good at their presentation.

  37. @JimJam

    “Only comment from me on the DM
    Wouldn’t wipe my arse on it.”

    That degree of outspokenness is a bit unusual for you, isn’t it? Are you sure you wouldn’t like to triangulate your statement a little!

  38. Colin and Amber
    Not sure which of you , in the words of the great Carwyn James,’got your retaliation in first’ on the situation in Ukraine, also not sure how the bl**dy hell it has anything to do with polling or VI in the UK.

  39. JIM JAM

    I concur with CB11’s reaction-which is a compliment to you from both of us .

  40. @ Ewen Lightfoot

    …also not sure how the bl**dy hell it has anything to do with polling or VI in the UK.
    —————–
    It is potentially the equivalent of Libya or Syria.

    And Syria could be seen as an example of UK polling/ public opinion over-riding the cabinet’s position & changing the course of world events. That makes Syria the most important thing that YG ever polled about, IMO.

    Will the Ukraine situation develop in a similar way? We don’t know. Nevertheless, I still think it’s a valid topic when taken in the context of Syria polling.

  41. CB – No thanks.
    In fact I will go further – I would not wipe my dogs arse on it (if I had one) or my cats for that matter, or even my hamster …..
    I hope that my rare if somewhat simplistic stridency is noted.

    No polling implications – preaching to the converted by and large and a la the Sun with GBs letters and the attack on EM dad it may have a marginal positive impact for Lab with Centrists.

  42. Amber

    “Russian military forces are blocking an airport in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea near the Russian naval base in an “armed invasion”, Ukraine’s interior minister has said.

    Arsen Avakov said in a Facebook post that the Belbek international airport in Sevastopol is blocked by military units of the Russian navy. Mr Avakov described the blockade as a “military invasion and occupation.”

    Indy.

  43. On Piegate, I rather agree with Alec’s hypothesis that these type of stories, once unleashed, have a rather unfortunate habit of coming back and biting their authors. The Daily Mail when it’s in high Dacre-preaching mode quite often over-reaches itself. On Miliband’s father, I think it was shocked at the backlash to the story, getting a painful reminder of the large numbers of people, in all sections of society, who truly despise the newspaper and its values. It’s never comfortable to be publicly reminded of how many people dislike you!

    Now, I hear of a petition, initiated by Owen Jones the Independent columnist, slamming the Daily Mail for sexualising young girls. This reached more than 17,000 signatures in a matter of hours, apparently.

    Not the sort of publicity that the Mail would have expected or sort when they embarked on their PIE/NCCL story. I bet they thought they were on a one-way surefire ticket to trash the reputations of three Labour politicians. What could possibly go wrong with that!

  44. “Sort” should have been “sought” in the last post.

    What sought of illiterate am I turning into??

  45. Jon Snow issued a challenge to Paul Dacre on C4 news yesterday.

    Discussing Hewitt’s ‘apology’ was Snow with Steve Coogan & Toady Young.

    At the end, Snow asked Young why he was there arguing for the Mail instead of Dacre & declared that he would give £1000 to a charity of Dacre’s choice to do an interview with him but that pigs would fly before that ever happened.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/

    The gauntlet has been laid down & if was a betting sort, I’d bet my house that Dacre will never agree to be interviewed by Snow.

  46. @ Colin

    The UK foreign office say the airport is operating normally. As do reporters who are at the airport now.

  47. @ CROSSBAT

    “Now, I hear of a petition, initiated by Owen Jones the Independent columnist, slamming the Daily Mail for sexualising young girls. This reached more than 17,000 signatures in a matter of hours, apparently.”

    Here it is.

    https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/daily-mail-mailonline-stop-the-daily-mail-sexualising-children

    Those UKPRers who disapprove of promoting paedophilia will no doubt add to the 34000 who have signed so far!

  48. Amber

    I think we can both agree that the opinion which matters is that of the Ukrainian Government & people.

  49. @ Colin
    “I can’t see the story having long legs.”

    Unlike the 13-year-old girls in bikinis that apparently appear quite frequently in the DM.

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