This Sunday’s polling is mostly dominated by Scotland – even the YouGov/Sunday Times national poll mostly had questions about Britain’s attitudes to the Scottish referendum.

Let start with the Scottish polls though. Last weekend we had a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday which was widely reported in the media as showing that George Osborne’s intervention in the referendum debate had actually boosted YES. This was mostly rubbish – the change appeared to be largely, but not wholly, the result of Survation changing their weightings. I concluded we should probably wait for more evidence before deciding what the impact from the currency row was.

Today we have a new ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday. Their topline figures with changes from a month ago are YES 37%(nc), NO 49%(+4). At first glance this poll would indicate the currency row had led to a significant boost to the NO campaign, but once again I’d urge some caution. Regular readers will remember that the previous ICM poll showed a big swing towards YES, far bigger than any other poll, so this one may very well just be a reversion to the mean rather than any meaningful change (in particular ICM’s last poll had an unusually pro-independence sample of young people, which I suspect may have vanished. On that subject this month ICM have apparently changed their method very slightly, changing the age bands they use to weight young people.)

In the rest of the poll ICM found that 63% of people in Scotland think it is in Scotland’s best interests to keep the pound, 12% think she would be better off with a separate currency. 47% think that an independent Scotland would be able to use the pound, that the main British parties are bluffing. On the issue of Scotland’s EU membership, 54% would like to see an independent Scotland be an EU member, 29% would not; 57% think Scotland would be able to join, 24% think membership would be blocked.

The SNP have also commissioned a new Panelbase poll. Now, the last time we saw an Panelbase/SNP poll they played silly buggers with the question ordering, but I’ve double checked with Panelbase and nothing like this happened in this one (though the wording is very slightly different to that used by the Panelbase/Sunday Times poll). The topline figures are YES 37%, NO 47%. The no vote is two points lower than the last Panelbase/Sunday Times poll, but Panelbase’s previous poll was a bit higher than usual – for most of the past year Panelbase’s polls have consistently shown a NO lead of between 8 and 10 points, this is wholly in line with that.

In short, looking at the post-currency row questions we’ve got some polls showing YES up, some showing NO up, some showing little change, all of them obscured to some extent by reversion to the mean after unusual results or methodology/wording changes. It’s a pretty confused picture, but I’m struggling to see any clear movement to YES or NO.

Meanwhile the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. In England and Wales 21% support Scottish independence, 61% are opposed and English & Welsh respondents are now slightly more likely to think E&W would be worse off (27%) than better off (23%) if Scotland left.

Also worth noting there is an interesting non-Scotland related question – YouGov repeated a question from last April about the government’s welfare reform package as a whole, freezes, caps, bedroom tax, etc. Back in April 2013 56% of people said they supported them, 31% were opposed. Now 49% support them, 38% are opposed – so still more in support than against, but a significant movement over the last year.


397 Responses to “ICM and Panelbase Scottish polls”

1 2 3 4 8
  1. Re “health professionals” and their assessments. In some cases (when their relatives can rasise the money for legal fees) I refer folk declared fit by ATOS to a solicitor who, a few years ago, worked for a legal section within DWP. Poacher turned gamekeeper. Very handy as he knows how the opposition thinks and operates.

    At tribunals he usually focuses on the credentials of the “professional” who did the assessment. After all, the fact that someone dresses the part, e.g. wears a white coat with a label or two and a watch pinned to it does not guarantee that they actually have any medical expertise. In any case, some conditions can only be properly assessed by a specialist.

  2. VALERIE,

    I meant in the sense it is better to split democratically if that is what one side wants than to keep it going when it isn’t working.

    I wasn’t suggesting that their was any chance of violence here, rather that if a relationship can’t be repaired then agreeing to move on is better than fighting.

    I tend to think that holding on to territory when the people in it want to go does more harm than good.

    Peter.

  3. ANARCHISTS

    “I’ve linked the original paper (from 1974!) that is effectively describing what would be called system 1 thinking.”

    Thanks
    I pride myself on being bang up to date. September 1974 so within my 40 year rule.

  4. @NORBOLD:

    I have AS. If your son has any similar problems it’s worth getting in touch with NASS (National AS Assoc.). Also, if he hasn’t already, he should try and get a referral to the Mineral Water Hospital in Bath http://www.rnhrd.nhs.uk .

    Incidentally I had my own ATOS assessment a few years back and it was handled very well. Unfortunately I’ve heard of cases similar to your son’s. Their inconsistency is part of the problem, though.

    (And I assume it’s ESA your son received, not ESP!)

  5. COLIN DAVIS

    @” “Is it right that the government tightens the benefits system?” becomes, “Are the poor not threatening us by taking our money?””

    If people are answering ” a different question” here-I would suggest that it has nothing to do with “the poor” at all.

    It has to do with perceptions of reward, , effort , hardship -and most critically of all -fairness.

  6. Peter Cairns: “rather that if a relationship can’t be repaired”

    That is little more than a minority opinion.

  7. @Peter Cairns

    The history of partitions, even notionally friendly ones, isn’t all roses. The partition of India being perhaps the best example of a disaster brought about with the best of intentions.

    And the situation in Ukraine isn’t nearly as simple as a pro-western west and a pro-Russia East. There are huge amounts of real-politik (as one of my Russian colleagues put it: “In the summer Ukraine looks to the West, in the winter to the East”). I have fond memories of Kyiv and hope that my colleagues and friends there will be safe.

  8. @Colin Davis:” ‘Benefit cuts are something that’s unlikely to grow in popularity – more likely the opposite as people may become aware of someone affected.’ From the last thread, I think it was R Huckle, and sorry if it wasn’t!”

    Me, actually but I’m happy to share the credit! I do think it’s a one-way street for the Coalition, though – a policy that can only become less popular while providing Labour with a rich source of anecdotes.

  9. @Howard
    If you can find something interesting to say about today’s YouGov-ST then by all means say it: in fact knock yourself out, I’m sure we’d all be grateful.

    On today’s other question: surely this is a case of a nation having greater conflicts within its borders than across them?

    I’ll let everyone guess which “nation” I’m referring to.

  10. Looking at some of the comments that rightly got caught in moderation, can I just remind people think this is NOT a place to discuss whether government (or opposition) policies are any good or not, especially not controversial ones.

  11. This is a thread dedicated to polling on the subject of Scottish independence so, despite my slightly overstated protestations of boredom whenever the debate has intruded into other unrelated topics of discussion, I suppose I ought to be more tolerant when, as now, we’re invited to offer our thoughts on the forthcoming referendum in September.

    I tend towards the view expressed in the leading article in today’s Observer which urges all parties to take the bile out of the independence debate. It seems, rather peculiarly, to raise the hackles of normally temperate people and it is one of the reasons I’ve tended to steer well clear. I also still detect the whiff of anti-Englishness in some strands of Scottish nationalism and that disturbs me too. It is a political subject that doesn’t particularly excite me and while I accept its constitutional importance, particularly if Scotland breaks from the Union, I’ve never really ever thought that a majority of Scots would vote for an independent Scotland. I never did and don’t now. Let me explain why I’m convinced that’s the case and why I think these current polls are probably pointing pretty accurately to the eventual result. In fact, I think the No vote will increase nearer the day of the vote and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a 60:40 vote for the status quo eventually.

    The conservative, no change argument, always has an in-built advantage, irrespective of the nature or type of change being proffered. Think the AV Referendum in 2012 and the Common Market Referendum in 1975. The Noes to change had it pretty comfortably in both and the protagonists for radical change found the boulder a very heavy one to roll up a steep hill. It’s why I think, when push comes to shove, Cameron’s referendum on the EC in the next Parliament, should it ever occur, will probably eventually see the country vote to stay as a member. It’s just the way these things tend to go. Status quo v radical change? Better the devil and all the rest of it is usually the response unless there is real revulsion against the current status. Is that really the case in Scotland? I think not, despite the strong desire and zeal amongst many nationalists to break away.

    Scottish nationalism has always seemed to me to be a cause looking for an injustice. Salmond’s nightmare was the 2011 landslide that turned him from a populist and politically savvy subversive into an establishment figure forced to put his party’s ultimate raison d’etre to the test in a referendum. Now a train that I suspect he never wanted to roll is probably heading for the buffers. Where to then for Salmond and his SNP? Another go at a later date? Conversion to a devolved Scotland’s natural party of Government? Or schism and irrelevance.

    My view all along is that this Referendum is Salmond’s least preferred scenario. No Big Mo with only six months to go and the distinct possibility that he is leading a party who’s core political objective is about to be roundly rejected by the people he and is party purport to represent. The stakes couldn’t be higher and my hunch is that Mr Salmond’s heading for an almighty fall.

  12. This is a genuine question about polling:

    When does “swingback” start to occur? and how strong is it meant to be?

  13. @ ROGERH

    “(And I assume it’s ESA your son received, not ESP!)”

    Oooops!

    Thanks for the info, Roger.

    My son has it fairly well contained now as he is taking Embrel. Though the problem with that is it works by suppressing the body’s immune system so whenever he gets a cold or any type of infection it just completely knocks him out.

  14. @Peter Crawford

    From UKIP to the Tories?

  15. back to the government?

    there’s a pattern of governments gathering more support as elections draw nearer. Obviously in coalition this could be more complicated. UKIP also is obviously a new factor.

    just casting an eye on betting markets (betfair/paddy power/ladbrokes etc.), the money is clearly on some kind of labour government, post 2015, either with labour in a coalition agreement or labour on its own.

    I was wondering when we would expect the polls to start moving, if this expectation is to be confounded.

  16. From the end of the last thread:

    I’ve just created a summary of the YG VI data for this week, showing what percentage of the VI for Com, Lab, LD and UKIP comes from identifiers from the 2010 GE for Con, Lab and LD.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDdU5KRzhxX295cDg/edit?usp=sharing

    I will do the same each week. It’s interesting to see where the current VI comes from.

    Here is just the graph:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDcHE0anJKT3BBY00/edit?usp=sharing

  17. “I was wondering when we would expect the polls to start moving, if this expectation is to be confounded.”

    Last year?

  18. Hi Colin

    (I said) “Is it right that the government tightens the benefits system?” becomes, “Are the poor not threatening us by taking our money?””

    (You replied) If people are answering ” a different question” here-I would suggest that it has nothing to do with “the poor” at all.

    It has to do with perceptions of reward, , effort , hardship -and most critically of all -fairness.

    The point Kahneman is making (I think) is that people choose an easier question when confronted with something which might possibly challenge their swiftly arrived at (System 1) assessments of what is going on in their world. They pick their own easy question, of course: the device is their own way of getting out of difficult analysis, because System 2 is lazy.

    So you are right that the question, “Is it right that the government tightens the benefits system?” could be supplanted by a question about reward or hardship. (I’m not at all sure a question about fairness would do the trick, because ‘fairness’ as a concept is not at all easy to pin down.) “Should I pay for someone who doesn’t work as hard as me?” would fill the bill, however.

    My point was that the government has planted a number of easy question suggestions in people’s minds. The one I suggested is definitely up there (with GO going on about you getting up before dawn and the cunning poor staying on in bed etc.,) as is the “Why should I not claim my appropriate reward?” question.

  19. Hi RogerH,

    I’m so sorry I didn’t credit you properly! I was with you all the way on your points!

  20. Looking at the closeness of the VI figures I am always puzzled by how politicians miss open goals. The Coalition are always accusing Labour of backing welfare cuts in principle but voting against them. Why don’t Labour reply that if a bill has the right intent but is a bad bill, you can’t support it. And the Coalition are always accusing Labour of spending wildly. But until November 2007 the Tory policy was to match Labour spending £ for £. Why don’t Labour say that?

  21. COLIN

    @”(I’m not at all sure a question about fairness would do the trick, because ‘fairness’ as a concept is not at all easy to pin down.) “Should I pay for someone who doesn’t work as hard as me?” would fill the bill, however.”

    Under the System 1 thinking we have been discussing it wouldn’t need to be “easy to pin down”. It would be intuitive , inbuilt etc etc. Little thought would be given to it if System 1 is at work.

    Actually I think that “fairness” is an over-riding concept for most people when they think about the comparative position of individuals in society .

    And I feel that “what do I think is fair” ? would be a question which would be universally asked by anyone seeking to answer your question-a question that does, I agree fit the bill.

  22. I always like to see what Prof Curtice says about Scottish polls in his “What Scotland Thinks” blog.

    He makes the point that many have that ICM’s methodological change seems to give a more accurate picture than their January one.

    It’s interesting to look back to the reaction to Panelbase’s first poll in the current series. Back then. it was treated with amazement that Yes were around 44%, and it’s methodology was much questioned.

    Yet, as others have also changed their methodology (as Panelbase pointed out at the time, no pollster really had a reliable method of measuring referendum opinion), they have moved to convergence around the 45%/55% position.

    If indeed, many of the apparent changes are methodological, not an actual shift in people’s opinions, then we are seeing “polldrums” in the indy debate – but with a much higher level of Yes support, than has been long assumed.

    It would also appear that all the efforts of politicians (on either side) and the media have had little impact!

  23. As a Sassenach living and working for some years in Scotland may I think that Scottish nationalists are mainly proving to themselves that a Scots nation already exists. is liked and enjoyed by, and is in many respects benefits from other parts of the UK, including England where they are deeply embedded in our professions and politics, and vice versa. Increased devo plus. for example in some areas of foreign policy, e.g in cultural and educational exchanges, aid and trade, would be increased in value, paradoxically, by their continuing to demonstrate the independence which they exercise without partition. We all know how good the Scots are as a nation (but they’d better start playing rugby to their traditional standards)..

  24. Fair do’s, Colin. The government certainly do use the word ‘fair’ a lot. K’s examples of easier questions tend to be very concrete, was all I was suggesting.

    To me – and that is just me – ‘fair’ is more an emotive trigger. I couldn’t give you a nice clean universally applicable definition for it. (Well, not without a fair bit of System 2 and a free afternoon!) That’s why the word is such a convenient substitute for ‘moral’.

  25. Well, I was going to comment that YG found more Lab voters (29%) who thought EM was doing badly (‘somewhat or very’) whereas Opinium only found 13% in that category. Not something perhaps for Ed to get particularly worried about, but quite a difference between the two pollsters, I thought. .As I pointed out before, the Labour voters still will vote labour of course (the same voters at 39% of VI).

  26. John Pilgrim

    Agreed that our rugby is currently garbage. However, at least in curling we continue to do well.

    With Scots curlers achieving 50% of the Team GB medal haul, it would be difficult to argue that Scotland needs to be in the UK to achieve Winter Olympics medals!

    rUK would, I suppose feel diminished by only getting two medals. :-)

  27. “The Macbeth crowd blew themselves out on the previous thread which didn’t have a Saltire at the top.”

    ——-

    Well it could just be a daytime hiatus, ‘cos the Scots peeps tend to come out at night….

  28. COLIN

    @”. I couldn’t give you a nice clean universally applicable definition for it. (Well, not without a fair bit of System 2 and a free afternoon!) ”

    I don’t think there is one. It is in part subjective, though I think most would strive to be objective. It is also contextual-what is fair given these resources/circumstances might be different to what is fair given those resources/circumstances.
    Actually I think that the average person has a pretty good grasp on what can reasonably & sensibly be called “fair”.
    It is The State -where fairness to the citizenry is an imperative for good governance-which can get it so wrong sometimes. And I suggest that is because a political judgement has produced policy.

    @”That’s why the word is such a convenient substitute for ‘moral’.”

    I disagree profoundly.

    I am very wary of “moral”-whose meaning , my dictionary tells me includes concepts like “right” & “wrong” ; “righteous” , “proper” -and most worryingly ” sinless”.
    Certainly any politician who seeks to justify a policy as “moral” is making a huge mistake in my book-and I mean any politician.

    So I do not share the view that “moral” is a substitute for “fair” ( actually my Thesaurus doesn’t think so either !).

    “Fair” is rough & ready-, in a context – variable with time & circumstance -intuitive.

    …and I think pretty quantifyable for most people if you give them the parameters to be considered.

  29. A fascinating piece of analysis on “The Future of UK & Scotland” by the ESRC.

    http://futureukandscotland.ac.uk/resources/diam

    As it says in the lead sentence – “Accumsan dolor macto oppeto praemitto ratis sino.”

  30. John Pilgrim

    And while we’re on sport ….

    It’s Germany v Scotland at fitba on the Sunday before the referendum!

  31. @Colin

    “Actually I think that the average person has a pretty good grasp on what can reasonably & sensibly be called “fair”.”

    Agreed, but my version of fair would be radically different from yours, and someone feeding a family on $1 a day would be radically different again.

  32. @ Peter Crawford

    Re- Swing Back. It can reasonably be argued that this has already occurred to some extent in that a year ago we saw Labour with poll leads of 10 – 12%. Beyond that ,there is no iron law which should lead us to expect ‘swing back’ to continue all the way to polling day.
    This Parliament has already lasted over 3 years and 9 months, and if we look at earlier Parliaments ‘swing back’ was certainly apparent at the equivalent points in 1955 – 59 – 1966 -70 – 1974 – 79 – 1979 -83 – 1983 – 87 – 1987 – 92. Some Parliaments failed to last this long -1951 – 55 and 1964 – 66 and in two cases ‘swing back’ occurred later – 1959 – 64 and 2005 – 2010. It is also perhaps worth pointing out that – on the whole – general election campaigns since the war have tended to favour the Opposition – so that any ‘swing back’ has ,at least partially, been reversed. The only obvious examples where this did not happen were 1951, 1983 and 1992 – though in 1983 it was essentially a case of Labour losing ground to the Alliance rather than a direct switch to the Tories.
    Most polling evidence to date suggests that since 2010 there has been little swing from Tory to Labour – leading some to question the basis for expecting any ‘swing back’ of significance. There has, of course, been a very considerable swing from LibDem to Labour which has shown no sign of being reversed. Recent electoral history has little to offer us as to whether that is likely to change.

  33. @Anthony W

    “Looking at some of the comments that rightly got caught in moderation, can I just remind people think this is NOT a place to discuss whether government (or opposition) policies are any good or not, especially not controversial ones.”

    And there was me thinking that my perfectly reasonable references to fascist pig-dogs and capitalist paper tigers were the reasons my posts ended up in in perma-moderation!!

  34. OLD NAT
    Yeah, we’ve had one or two quite decent fitba managers from north of the border too, and one or two tennis players, I seem to recall have done well, though I can’t remember their names

  35. John Pilgrim

    “North of the border”

    So that would be Iceland or Norway?

  36. Given the relative stability that seems to exist in the underlying opinion that polls try to measure, I doubt that tomorrow’s stunt will have much effect,

    For the first time in 90 years, the UK Cabinet will meet in Scotland.

    Presumably, their advisers have suggested that this will persuade wavering Scots to vote to stay in the Union.

    John Curtice, however, noted “What will disappoint the No side more is that, again as in the case of the Survation poll, undecided voters say they are more likely to have been pushed towards Yes (23%) than towards No (17%). Along with Labour and even Liberal Democrat voters, they are also more likely to think that attacks on independence by ‘Westminster-based politicians’ are of benefit to the Yes side than to the No side.”

  37. Given the relative stability that seems to exist in the under-l-ying opinion that polls try to measure, I doubt that tomorrow’s stunt will have much effect,

    For the first time in 90 years, the UK Cabinet will meet in Scotland.

    Presumably, their advisers have suggested that this will persuade wavering Scots to vote to stay in the Union.

    John Curtice, however, noted “What will disappoint the No side more is that, again as in the case of the Survation poll, undecided voters say they are more likely to have been pushed towards Yes (23%) than towards No (17%). Along with Labour and even Liberal Democrat voters, they are also more likely to think that attacks on independence by ‘Westminster-based politicians’ are of benefit to the Yes side than to the No side.”

  38. Spain European Polling:

    PSOE 28.1%
    PP 26.3%
    IU 14.5%
    UPyD 8.1%
    CEU 5.1%
    ERC 3.3%

    More good news for the Socialists and Democrats.

  39. Crossbat

    If Salmond is heading for a fall then he has a long long way to go given YouGov cross break today

    SNP 38 LAB 33 TORY 14 LIB 7

  40. @ L Hamilton

    Any cross break needs to be treated with extreme caution.

    They are tiny, so have a massive margin of error.

  41. If indeed, many of the apparent changes are methodological, not an actual shift in people’s opinions, then we are seeing “polldrums” in the indy debate –
    ——-
    Yes, it has been polldrums since Jan 2012
    ——-
    but with a much higher level of Yes support, than has been long assumed.
    ——-
    the ‘higher level of support’ is a straw-man. Panelbase 01/02/2012: Yes 47 No 53
    Ipso Mori 29/01/2012: Yes 44 No 56

  42. The unweighted cross break was 206, so the MOE is 6.83 %

  43. The previous YG (19th-20th Feb) had:

    Lab 36
    SNP 24
    Con 30
    LD 6

    Previous to that (18th – 19th Feb)

    Lab 37
    SNP 23
    Con 19
    LD 7

    So if any one of those two and the recent poll looks atypical, it’s the 38.

    The best advice is to totally ignore one-poll cross breaks, unless a whole series shows the same thing.

  44. Amber

    Firstly, comparing polls which don’t share a consistent methodology, tells you very little – even if they are from the same pollster.

    Secondly, as to “assumed”. I simply refer you to the ex-cathedra statement of Dimbleby on Question Time recently that No led Yes “by two to one”. He was simply articulating the common perception of the commentariat.

    We now have a reasonable consensus from the main pollsters that the No campaign have something like a 10% lead.

    My suggestion is that that might well have been the situation all along, but the difficulty that pollsters find in measuring opinion on a one-off situation like this has given a misleading understanding.

    It may well be that Panelbase and Ipsos-MORI were actually measuring things correctly back in early 2012, on the methodologies that they were using then. Who knows?

    However, I’m happy that we can agree that the No lead among those who have expressed an opinion is around 10%

  45. CATMANJEFF

    It was no more than a debating point for Crossbat but remember that Survation had the NATS leading by 5 points over Labour for Westminster – one of only a handful of polls which have ever shown such a lead.

    Survation was not last weekend for the Mail on Sunday but midweek for the Mail.

    My point is a simple one. Salmond is leading the UK establishment a merry dance. The things they reckon will finish him (eg Osborne and Barossa) actually make him ever stronger.

    For example if you were a Scottish voter what conclusion would you come to from the first UK cabinet meeting since 1921 being held in the North of Scotland?.

    Would it be. They love us a great deal or alternatively where have they been for the last 90 years!

  46. What were they doing there in 1921?

  47. @L Hamilton

    I think that you mention a few things that I agree with.

    Every syllable muttered by Old Etonian English Conservatives diminishes the no campaign. I suspect this is why DC will not debate with AS in Scotland. I think he would do it if it would seriously wound the yes campaign.

    As a Yorkshireman I feel the same about the UK Cabinet and the Government in general. Yorkshire, like Scotland, is outside the sphere of the South East and London that so dominates Westminster politics. Personally, when I visit Scotland or Wales I feel at home. Inside the M25 feels like a foreign land.

    There are more than a few Yorkshire folk who would probably like to join and independent Scotland.

  48. @CMJ

    There was one reason why I didn’t ignore the cross-break out of hand. There has been a lot of related news this week, culminating in news that Cameron is coming to Aberdeen with his cabinet.

    It all seems a little coincidental. Whether it’s an outlier or a momentary pro-SNP blip (we won’t know which if the VI reverts to norms), I don’t know.

    Hence why I said things like:

    “Definitely a ‘three in a row’ rule required there.”

    “With the caveat of “if the poll is accurately depicting true VI, and wasn’t taken in Banffshire””

    and in my blog post:

    “Note that today’s poll hasn’t affected the MAD data, as both SNP and Lab values are outliers in that context.”

    To me it’s an unusual poll, and if not worthy of taking seriously, it’s worthy of mentioning why it’s not worth taking seriously. I’ll be surprised if the SNP maintain a lead over Labour for three in a row, but I won’t be amazed. Labour have been polling lower this year than in the past, and the SNP seem to be able to pinch 5-10% off of the Con VI on a given day of headlines. Almost a one-day protest poll effect.

    The interesting / worrying thing is if the SNP can do something along those lines on the big day, or if these little protests have nothing to do with actual intention to vote (I might take the side of, or be opposed to a given party based on a news headline, but I won’t necessarily cast my ‘once only’ vote according to the headline).

  49. RogerH

    Lloyd George was on holiday in Inverness – hence the Cabinet didn’t meet in Cardiff.

  50. @L Hamilton

    ” If Salmond is heading for a fall then he has a long long way to go given YouGov cross break today
    SNP 38 LAB 33 TORY 14 LIB 7″

    Regional cross breaks aren’t worth the paper they’re not written on really, bearing in mind they don’t amount to statistically valid sample sizes when taken on their own. Statgeek, presumably tongue-in-cheek, although I’m never sure, occasionally brings our attention to Scottish regional cross breaks showing the Tories in the lead!

    By the way, are you looking forward to the new F1 season with Mercedes?

1 2 3 4 8