This morning’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. At the start of the week YouGov produced an interesting string of seven point Labour leads, but with a four point lead yesterday and a five point lead today it looks as it’s business as usual. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile the twice weekly poll from Populus has figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs for those are here.


308 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. CHRIS

    Only the Vision Critical one.

  2. And why have a poll such as this where the 52/48 split came from such a small sample of those who will be able to vote?

    However, the ‘Yes’ side would appear, on balance, to be making slight progress.

  3. @OLDNAT

    “Still, it’s a far away country, of which we know nothing”

    It was a far away country, of which we know little, when I was a lad.

    I think you’re confusing it with Scotland: that’s a not very far away country of which we English know nothing. At least that’s how some Scots see it :-)

  4. john b

    Sticking to purely polling issues, while we are in the dining room of Anthony’s palace (though we appear to be the only guests left!)

    The VC poll was of 2060 adults (described in the Mail on Sunday as both British, and UK) the 188 polled were those “who considered Scotland as their home nation”.

    What the hell THAT means, I haven’t the faintest idea.

  5. Guymonde

    When you were a lad, it was but a slave republic of the Soviet Union – unless you are very, very young, or very, very, very old!

  6. @Oldnat

    Sitting in a comfy armchair next to the fire, lugging in to the dining table discussions, puffing on a cigar and supping some brandy.

    Ok, I’m online with a glass of Irn Bru, but it’s a nice image.

  7. Interesting how the ‘satire’ seems to ok in one direction (but not the other):

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland-on-sunday-cartoon-currency-choice-1-3308167

    That’s quite appalling.

  8. New Panelbase poll on indy also out tomorrow. Assuming that Anthony puts up a new thread on these polls, those who find such matters boring, should plan for an interesting day preparing their garden for the Spring planting.

  9. In the event of a ‘yes’ vote will we see officials frantically shredding documents in the Scotland Office before escaping the building by helicopter from the rooftop?

  10. RogerH

    LOL!

    Though seems unlikely, since the Scotland Office is in Dover House, London.

  11. @OldNat

    In my case, repairing the garden fence after a couple of months of storms.

    I like Whisky and Mackie’s ice cream, but one recent Scottish export to England that I’m not so keen on is the jet stream and its consequences.

  12. By reading through the dying embers of this read (oh, alright, not really reading then, just looking at the names of the posters and moving swiftly on! lol) I’ve just discovered something with the same soporific and sleep-inducing effect as Horlicks, only cheaper.

    Thank you and goodnight.

  13. Phil Haines

    That’s a shame. I thought we were all into to “pooling and sharing”.

  14. phil haines

    What I am looking forward to are a few thousand posts about tax avoidance loopholes in an Independent Scotland and whether that would strengthen the value of the TwawPoondie Note.

  15. Tweet from Mike Smithson:-

    Mike Smithson [email protected] 1m

    New #IndyRef Panelbase poll finds Yes: 37% No: 47% Undecided: 16% The gap 2% narrower than last from firm

  16. I have written a jolly jingle to promote the TwaPoondie

    “TwaPoondie, TwaPoondie, TwaPoondie.

    Worth almost twice the Inglish yin

    Yooze can spendit on chip suppers and mars bars

    And have change fer some whisky and gin. ”

    [all together now…….]

  17. @R&D

    From what I can glean, an independent Scotland under its current (“more left wing than Labour”) administration would itself be a corporation tax avoidance loophole.

  18. “The gap 2% narrower than last from firm”

    Dramatic – and my jingle will only serve to push it higher.

  19. @MSmithsonPB: New #IndyRef Panelbase poll finds
    Yes: 37%
    No: 47%
    Undecided: 16%
    The gap 2% narrower than last from firm

    That is 45/55 if DK are excluded

  20. We don’t know whether Panelbase are still using the preamble to the indy question that they don’t publish.

    However, the change that they report is Yes (no change) while No lose 2% to undecided.

    In itself moe, but part of a continuing trend across all polls.

    On the “Osborne/Balls/Alexander question”, 48% felt that Yes had benefited most, as opposed to 25% who thought No had benefited.

  21. @Couper2802
    “That is 45/55 if DK are excluded”

    Are you sure? Not 44/56?

  22. Verse two

    “Everyone loves the TwawPoondie

    There’s mair than enough tae gan roond

    Yooze can spend in offies and bookies

    Where they won’t that sh*te Inglish pooooooond.”

  23. Phil Haines @Couper2802

    I haven’t seen the detailed tables, but rounding means that you can’t do an accurate calculation without seeing the actual numbers. – so both of these calculations will be approximately correct (given moe)!

  24. the names rosie and daisie raise a smile every time I see them as my first bull mastiff was called rosie. When she died 22 years ago I went into a long depression as I realised I was in a loveless marriage and met my third wife whom I have adored ever since. Our first bull mastiffs were called bella and baby. We were greatly taken with the film turner and hooch where tom hanks played a bit part to the star which was a dogue de bordeaux aka a French mastiff.Like many big dogs they are glorified lap dogs. unlike those of my step daughter who lives with us with four chiwawas who are ferocious beasts. A person who loves dogs cant be all bad so they say although hitler loved his dogs so there are exceptions to every rule.

  25. @Couper2802
    “That is 45/55 if DK are excluded”

    Are you sure? Not 44/56?

    That’s what I made it Phil.

    I’ll convert it into TwawPoondies later but I think it will be the same.

  26. David Englehart

    Oddly, every time I see the names Rosie & Daisie, I smile as well. :-)

  27. David

    I beat you by eight years but arrived in the same place.

    My wife and I can’t bear the thought of losing either of the girls but the joy of them each day makes that outcome – though they may outlive me – bearable to cope with.

    You only get non-judgemental love from Mums and pups.

  28. Verse Three

    “Scotland’s much nicer than England

    We’re better at sports such as curling

    We don’t mind oor chaps wearing daft hats and skirts

    And TwawPoondies are wurth more than sterling.”

    ………………………………………………………………………………….

    [Verse 4 coming up unless someone comes around and shoots me …… pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeas…..]

    Actually, I’m down in Lancashire so leave it till tomorrow when I shall be chez moi encore.

  29. The report on the VC poll – as reported in the Mail on Sunday.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/three-out-five-britons-want-3174847

    Interesting that, after a couple of years wearying debate on process, it seems that lots of folk who think they should have been consulted, now want to have a say – long after the decision was made.

    “58 per cent believed people across the UK should be able to have their say because of the potential implications for the rest of the country, with 20 per cent saying the decision should be left to the Scottish and 22 per cent unsure.”

    No doubt, they saw something about this, but found it boring so they ignored it as not concerning them.

  30. “Oor emblem’s a prick-a-ly thistle

    They say wor a prick-a-ly race

    But TwawPoondies just cost slightly less than a poond

    So there isnae a wealthier place.”

    ………………………………………………………………………………..

    “The Inglish have chips on their shoulders

    They’d like the TwawPoondie as well.

    But we’re keepin’ ut juss for we Scots’ folk.

    Wor TwawPoondies suit us just swell.”

  31. BANG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. Sorry – Sunday Mail, not Mail on Sunday.

  33. Colin Davis,

    “Thanks for replying. I was being a bit flippant. You quoted a scheme that raised extra tax in the US by being tight on loopholes and reducing tax rates. I was wondering (to myself mostly) why it is we hear so often about schemes which bring in more tax by lowering tax rates. If these work, it most likely means that wealthy people ‘agree’ to paying a bit more tax when they see it can save them some of the labyrinthine hassle involved in their avoidance schemes. My flip side says why not just concentrate on taking out the loopholes.”

    The beauty of the double approach is that it offers something to the right and the left (I hate those terms, but you know what I mean) but the problem is that the right doesn’t trust the left to keep rates low and the left doesn’t trust the right to not introduce new rates. And so a very good idea doesn’t happen.

    Just cutting out the loopholes makes sense, IF you want to raise tax revenues.

  34. “why it is we hear so often about schemes which bring in more tax by lowering tax rates. If these work…”

    They don’t.

  35. @OldNat

    The vote should be for Scots and Scots alone. There’s no justification for rUK to be involved. If Scotland leaves the UK then the rUK government is charged with protecting the rUK’s interest.

  36. RAF

    I agree. That is indeed the current reality. My post referred to the poll which suggested that many people in rUK may have woken up to the fact that decisions here might actually affect them – despite the common reaction of some on UKPR.

    The actual arguments involved are very old and hackneyed, of course. “All Indonesians should have been allowed to vote on the independence of East Timor” etc etc.

    As with any poll.the question choice is determined by those paying for it. If it is an Express poll, then we can be reasonably sure that posing such a (rather archaic) question was designed to influence attitudes south of the Border, rather than ascertaining actual opinion.

    Of course, it’s not “push polling”, but asking questions in a format which you are fairly sure will produce the responses you want, is not an unknown technique for anyone, on any side, commissioning a poll!

  37. Disappointing that the Herald version of the VC poll is word for word the same as the Sunday Mail.

    Both papers using a common news feed, without any journalistic input of their own.

    No wonder that the print press media is dying.

  38. @Oldnat

    “My post referred to the poll which suggested that many people in rUK may have woken up to the fact that decisions here might actually affect them”

    Including the good folks of Alba. People are starting to come round to the idea that something important is coming, and there’s no stopping it. So, they are facing up to the debate, rather than ignoring it.

    @AW (if he sees this – I imagine he’ll be keen to start a new thread on the morrow)

    Do we have a quick-reference indy poll trend yet? As the date gets closer, there will be endless polls, and you realise you’ll be called upon to be the voice of reason in the maelstrom of rogues, pushes, voodoos and flags (flagpoll, geddit?).

  39. Statgeek

    My prediction is that Anthony will lead on a new thread with the news that ICM have revealed a rise in the No vote. Which, given the rather astounding poll last time, and their methodological problems, wouldn’t be that surprising!

  40. @Oldnat

    You know this reminds me of a vote the Spanish Supreme Court refused to allow the Basque Country autonomous community to hold on independence from the rest of Spain. The constitutional issues were quite complex, particularly as the Basque government could not gain the Spanish government’s consent to hold the vote, and the Constitutional Court held that the vote would be illegal – threatening imprisonment (for treason) if it went ahead.

    So a rather different situation, but…

    In Spain at the time there was a large body of opinion amongst ordinary folk and academics that two votes were required for the Basque Country to gain independence. Firstly a vote in the whole of Spain – effectively amending the Basque Country’s statute of autonomy giving it the power to approve a vote on independence and secondly, a referendum in the Basque Country on whether they wanted independence.

    In the UK situation, the first if these issues has already been settled in Scotland’s favour – by consent of the UK Government. As a result, the only question to be addressed is the referendum amongst Scots. It is too late now for people in rUK to demand a referendum of whether Scotland should be allowed to leave the Union, as the UK government has already decided it can. As a result asking that question in a poll is meaningless as it is no longer an option.

    I take your point that some in England are belated waking up to the possibility that Scotland may be lost but their view is now irrelevant.

  41. @RAF

    “I take your point that some in England are belated waking up to the possibility that Scotland may be lost but their view is now irrelevant.”

    Hmm. I wouldn’t go quite that far. To ignore the rUK when facing the big question would be foolish, but if you mean their view in a pure voting sense, then yes, I agree. They still have plenty to contribute, and there’s no guarantee of what the result will be, so being bothersome to rUK might appeal to some ‘Yes’ voters (and some South of the border like to reciprocate), but it gets us all nowhere, regardless of the outcome.

  42. The Vision Critical poll (I presume Angus Reid are finally rebranding themselves, they seem to have been dithering about it for years) is actually quite interesting because it seems to show an increase in support for Scottish independence in England and Wales. A month-old YouGov (with a big sample) showed 24/54/22 which gives a 31/69 split while this is 38/62, though admittedly it includes some Scottish responses. But these seem only to have been 188 out of a total sample of 2060 and couldn’t have made all of the difference even if 52% of them said yes.

    As always wording will make a big difference and whether it was a forced choice or not

    As for the rest of the UK saying they want their say, this is surely just another example of Wells’ Law which says that people will always say they want to have a vote on something. If you think about it this applies even more when you are asking it in an online poll. Basically you are asking a group of people, who have joined an online panel so they can have their say on things, whether they want to have a say on something. The only surprise is that it’s not always 100%.

  43. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 21st February – Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%; APP -27

    Lab lead 7

    the pdf link is not working at the moment for me anyway.

  44. because I have seen these numbers so many times in the last 6 months, i will have a guess at the sub section numbers.

    Cons will have lost 15%+ of their 2010 vote to UKIP and a small amount to Lab, but will have gained 10%+ from the LD’s

    Lab will have 35%+ of the 2010 LD’s and have retained 80%+ of their 2010 vote, have taken a small number of Con 2010 voters and have a big lead amongst 18 to 24 year olds

    LD’s will have lost a large amount of their 2010 vote to everyone.

    The government disapproval is high because the coalition total is only 40% and the economic question numbers will be worse for the same reason.

    I bet I am right and if I am wrong i think I can live with it.

  45. Scottish cross-break alert! :)

    SNP 38%
    Lab 33%
    Con 14%
    Lib 7%
    UKIP 3%
    Green 3%

    Decent sample too (for these cross-breaks) at 206, with the average of the previous 30 polls at 170. I expected to see a sample of 110 for those VI numbers.

    Scotlands Votes says:

    Lab 29 (-12)
    SNP 25 (+19)
    Lib 4 (-7)
    Con 1 (n/c)

    Definitely a ‘three in a row’ rule required there.

  46. “Do you support or oppose Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?”

    Support Scottish independence: 42%

    Oppose Scottish independence: 43%

    Don’t Know: 15%

    That’s squeaky bum time.

    Over to AW, as I have no basis of comparison on that one, but it looks a little like the PM’s cabinet will be mulling over that lot in Aberdeen (and I dare say Salmond’s lot will be smiling for the cameras).

  47. Good Morning All.
    The Sun is waking up in Bournemouth, on this interesting polling day for the Scots and the UK.

    I think DC would resign if Scotland votes Yes.

    Is it the legacy of Mrs Thatcher as well as the very Englishness of George Osborne that has driven up the Yes vote?

  48. I asked a question the other day which no one could answer.

    If Scotland votes for independence, they will stop being a member of the EU from the date of separation. If they could not negotiate becoming an EU member beforehand.

    Most of Scotlands imports come via English ports. What would happen at English ports in regard to any duties, tariffs and any customs & excise issues ?

    Because Scotland were not part of the EU, they would not be subject to EU treaties, some of which cover trade and tax rules. Scotland would have to sign up to an EEA agreement and join the queue to signing up to the EU. The point I am making is that this is going to very messy and England will be involved with a lot of issues, because they share borders, with goods being transported through English ports.

    This is just one small issue, but it makes you think whether the 2 years they are allowing for the separation to be arranged will be enough.

    Apologies if this should be in a Scottish thread.

  49. @Chrislane

    With sampling done Fri/Sat it might be partly the announcement of the oil industry needing the Union, but I’ll guess that it’s as much the drip of negative media / BT stuff over the whole week.

    (With the caveat of “if the poll is accurately depicting true VI, and wasn’t taken in Banffshire”)

  50. Same message on YouGov website when trying to load tables :-

    “This XML file does not appear to have any style information associated with it. The document tree is shown below.”

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