This morning’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. At the start of the week YouGov produced an interesting string of seven point Labour leads, but with a four point lead yesterday and a five point lead today it looks as it’s business as usual. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile the twice weekly poll from Populus has figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs for those are here.


308 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. First?

  2. Yes .

  3. The Tories seem to be doing much worse in real elections than their poll ratings. Only exceptions are when white working-class candidates stand.

  4. That’s a bit Gnomic Wolf, could you expand?

  5. While we’re at new posts, have a By-Election Report.

    February 20, 2014

    Charnwood BC, Birstall Wanlip

    LD 508 (39.6%; +15.2%)
    Con 419 (32.7; -15%)
    Lab 355 (27.7%; -0.1%)

    Majority 89

    LD gain from Con.

    Well we don’t hear those words much. I suppose it shows that in very weak Labour areas there’s still some potential for Lib Dems, although I’d be curious to know what the Tories on the council have been doing to deserve a 7.5% swing against them.

    I suspect what we’re seeing here is the parties all hovering around their natural levels of support. The very tiny change in the Lab vote is presumably evidence that they’ve squeezed as many votes from Birstall as they possibly can.

    Cardiff UA, Canton

    Lab 1201 (41.7%; -5.9%)
    PC 972 (33.7%; +14.3%)
    Con 381 (13.2%; +2.4%)
    Green 148 (5.1%; -10.5%)
    TUSC 101 (3.5%; +1.6%)
    LD 80 (2.8%; +0.3%)

    Majority 229
    Turnout 24.3%

    Lab Hold

    Scant comfort for the Lib Dems to raise their vote share here, since it’s appalling anyway. Don’t know what’s caused the swing from Green to PC, but I would guess at tactical voting.

    Ware TC, Christchurch

    Con 218 (31.3%)
    UKIP 197 (28.3%)
    LD 148 (21.3%)
    Lab 133 (19.1%)

    Majority 21
    Turnout 16%

    Con hold.

    Couldn’t tell you how much of an effect UKIP had here because I don’t know the previous vote shares, but this is a very four-cornered election by council standards. On such a small turnout we can’t tell a huge amount but there’s presumably a lot of attempts at tactical voting going on that are crossing over one another.

  6. Last 10 Tory VIs in You Gov polls are as follows (latest first, oldest last): 34,33,33,33,32,33,32,34,33,35).

    The reason I delved back was to see if there was any sign of a boost following the flooding story fading from the headlines and some good news on unemployment and inflation gaining more prominence. None to be seen thus far, unless the 1% uptick in today’s poll is the start of a steadily upward tend, That said, we saw a 35 and 34 a week ago, so the appearance of a 34% every now and again is nothing unusual.

    Last 10 Labour VIs in You Gov polls are as follows (latest first, oldest last): 39,37,40,40,39,39,39,39,39,39.

    The 37 of a day or so sticks out like a bit of a sore thumb and it appears that 39% is starting to become etched in stone.

    Accordingly, the size of the Labour lead seems to be totally dependent on where the Tories are in their 32-35% range on any one particular day. There doesn’t appear to be any net churn between the two main parties at all, or the development of any consistent upward or downward trends in either the Labour lead or the Labour and Tory VIs.

    Interesting considering the high frequency of events recently which you’d think might have some impact on the polls. By-elections, PM press conferences on the Flooding Crisis, the floods themselves, the publication of positive unemployment and inflation figures etc etc.

  7. Are there any recent studies into just how many people pay attention to current affairs? Just about every newspaper has circulation declining 10% + year on year.
    TV news viewers are down. Which leaves website readership numbers, which are going up but how many reading the Mail online are looking at the stories on the side bar? Any different to the numbers reading the frivolous stories in the paper in the past?

    Current affairs seem to have such minimal affects on VI in recent years. Maybe it was always like that.

  8. Looks like Labour 39% Cons 33% would be the current situation. LD about 10%, UKIP a bit more.

    The trend? There is no trend, unless you call nothing much happening a trend.

  9. Poll of Italian VI for the European elections:

    PD 27.6% M5S 24.9% FI 22.4% Tsipras 7.2% Lega 4.8% Fd’I 3.4% NCD 3.1% UDC 1.6% SC 1%

    M5S are still that high? Scary stuff.

  10. ‘The reason I delved back was to see if there was any sign of a boost following the flooding story fading from the headlines and some good news on unemployment and inflation gaining more prominence.’
    CB

    I am not sure that the recent economic news can be labeled ‘good’ in the way you appear to assume. Inflation based on the much more established RPI basis rose for the second consecutive month and has now reached 2.8%. Unemployment ticked up from 7.1 to 7.2%. Admittedly media and journalistic ignorance may have helped hide the truth!

  11. Like a polling commenter ‘coming in from the cold’ after the last two threads, I have now looked at the last week’s Opinium tables which are now coyly displayed, as Roger Mexico waspishly described it. These demonstrate IMO, what I have written before on the beauty contest questions.

    Cameron Con 5% somewhat or strongly disapprove
    Lab 74% ”
    LD 34% ”
    UKIP 67% ”

    Miliband Con 55% ”
    Lab 13% ”
    LD 40% ”
    UKIP 72% ”

    Clegg Con 39% ”
    Lab 68% ”
    LD 10% ”
    UKIP 80% ”

    It seems to me that the clear partisanship means that “xxx is cr*p” polling is a waste of time and I don’t see it gets us anywhere.

    Mr Cameron only has to worry about 5% of his supporters, Mr Miliband only 13% of his and Mr Clegg only 10% of his. In fact even those committed supporters may only be dissatisfied that their leader is not ‘strong enough’ on their favourite subject. It doesn’t seem to me that such outcomes would have any effect on VI in the various groups (remember they also answered that they had decided to vote for the party concerned) and thus I conclude that the results of such polling are not worth a candle and encourage pollsters to ask something that has more meaning as to VI.

  12. Howard

    I quite like

    “If you HAD to vote and your vote decided the forthcoming general election who would you vote for?

    No buggering about with D/Ks or coalitions.

  13. Graham – Yep I find it amusing how so much of the press repeat the press releases without delving any deeper. RPI going up (which includes housing costs) entirely ignored on some articles I read on the BBC and broadsheets in favour of the governments (now) favoured measure which is CPI.

    Government borrowing figures out today. Worth going to the ONS to see the breakdown. The gov surplus was £4.7 billion verses £6 billion last year. Total borrowing since April is £90.7bn, which was £4bn lower than at the same point a year earlier. Not too great considering the last 4 quarters of strong growth have hardly moved the borrowing figures.

    This follows November and December finance figures being quite poor. Income Tax receipts were down by £1.3 billion on last year – 4.9%. Corporation tax income down 6.1%. National Insurance up 3.6% though after last month showing no change on the year before. VAT income up 5.7% – showing the recovery is consumption based and reliant on credit and spending savings?

    Welfare spending up 1.3%. Spending on interest repayments down 4.7%.

    As ever these figures are prone to changes. However I don’t think they are really what the Tories would want to be seeing though with GDP growing at 0.7% ish for the past couple of quarters.

    ONS release here -http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_352865.pdf

  14. Clegg and Farage to debate in EU elections – which given their respective standing in polls is of itself interesting.

  15. @KeithP

    “The trend? There is no trend, unless you call nothing much happening a trend.”

    That’s my view too, in a nutshell. Amber Star’s famously named polldrums, in effect. Students of polling minutiae may spot points of interest in the polling micro-detail, but quite often these are based on statistically invalid cross-breaks, slightly dodgy sub-question responses and, as Howard has rightly observed on the leader’s personal ratings, data that seems to have no impact on voting intentions.

    @Graham

    “I am not sure that the recent economic news can be labeled ‘good’ in the way you appear to assume.”

    I understand where you’re coming from on this, and many of us have debated such matters extensively on these very pages, but I’m basing my comments on my perceptions of how the reporting of recent economic news stories might effect the polls. On the basis that I think the reporting has been largely favourable to the Government, and therefore likely to make voters feel more positively about the Government’s performance (i.e improved approval ratings), then I would expect this to boost support for the Tories in the polls.

    The fact that it hasn’t may mean I’m still living in that old political world where it was possible for Harold Wilson to believe that a worsening balance of payments would put paid to his electoral chances and/or your analysis is right and the economic figures are a mirage.

  16. Ed
    The I newspaper has seen circulation growth of over 200 per cent in 2 years

  17. John Murphy,

    The debate unfortunately won’t make much impact because it’s on radio so nobody will listen. The words ‘bald men’ and ‘comb’ spring to mind.

  18. @Crossbat

    The meejah are surely less influential than they were in the past. We here are all watching the news and reading the papers. Are most voters?

    I’m not convinced after 2010. The Tories should have won given the media emphasis on national disaster, and Cameron’s superior marketability.

  19. @R&D

    “If you HAD to vote and your vote decided the forthcoming general election who would you vote for?”

    On that basis, I would vote for me. :-p

  20. Ed: “RPI going up (which includes housing costs) entirely ignored on some articles I read on the BBC and broadsheets in favour of the governments (now) favoured measure which is CPI.”

    RPI is less reliable *because* it includes housing costs….such as mortgages….which are influenced by the bank rate….which is influenced by inflation….which include housing costs….

    Therefore a rise in interest rates will see a rise in RPI, and vv, and does not give a consistent calculation of the cost of living.

    [/suckingeggs]

  21. On the European question, are there any parties currently represented in the HoC who advocate withdrawal as party policy rather than as rebel policy? Maybe the DUP or Respect?

  22. “Yep I find it amusing how so much of the press repeat the press releases without delving any deeper. ”

    Yes, disappointing that most of the mainstream news media now report government spin as fact without scrutinising.

    The BBC seems to have become one of the worst culprits and I find myself watching Sky News for a more balanced view of UK politics. That is quite an amazing turnaround as I used to regard Sky News as right-wing bias rather than balanced.

  23. Statty

    You’re a very silly boy.

    This is a serious polling site.

    I s’pose if we all did that it would be government of the peeps, by the peeps and for the peeps.

    Voting by lappy and Bob’s-Yer-Uncle.

    No more blaming the Government………..

  24. Squeezedmiddle – Yes I agree. Sky news, Channel 4 and even ITV are now well ahead of the BBC in terms of providing in depth information. It’s quite some turnaround.

    It’s not that the BBC are not portraying my views or anything silly like that, it is that there coverage is wafer thin on many issues on TV and online, and simply relays the government press releases without much scrutiny.

  25. MRNAMELESS
    If this VI is accurate, it shows no significant change from last GE (2013). PD is at +2.2, M5S at -0.7, FI+NCD at +4.2 (compared to the score of the defunct PDL of which they are the offsprings), Tsipras List at +2.2 (compared to the added score of its components), Lega at +0.7, FDI at +1.2, UDC at -0.2 and SC at -7.3. So the only significant change, predicted by all GE and EE polls, is the collapse of the centrist Monti coalition (UDC+SC), to the benefit of all other parties except M5S. Of course the comparison with the (very distant, politically speaking) result of 2009 EE shows a completely changed landscape. PD is at +1.5 (the only stable political party in all this mess), M5S at +24.9 (new party), FI+NCD at -9.8 (again compared to the PDL), Lista Tsipras at +0.7, Lega at -5.4, Fdi at +3.4 (new party), UDC at -4.9 and SC at +1.0 (new party). Translated in seats, this result would be: PD 23, M5S 21, FI 18, Tsipras 6, Lega 4, Ling. minorities (SVP) 1. The other parties obtain no seats because of the 4% threshold (not valid for ling. min.) Or, in terms of European political groups: Socialists and Democrats 23 (+2), EPP 19 (-16), EUL-NGL 6 (+6), EFD 4 (-5), ALDE 0 (-7, the almost defunct IDV), Non-affiliated 21 (+21). As it is the case generally in the EU, the EPP and ALDE groups suffer major losses, Radical Left and Unaffiliated are up and the SD are slightly up, but enough to gain first place from EPP. Finally, the bad result of Lega Nord is bad news for UKIP and its group. The Conservatives (ECR) are not represented in Italy, but they are expected to lose ground EU-wide because of the demise of the Czech ODS (expected to obtain 1-2 seats compared to its actual 9). My first prediction for the new EP composition is: SD 215, EPP 205, ALDE 65, GUE-NGL 60, ECR 40, Greens-EFA 35, EFD 30 and Others 100.

  26. @ Ed

    The BBC parroting government press releases drove the Tories crazy during the Blair years. And drove Labour crazy during the Thatcher years. It’s a shame they’re doing it again, having been less obliging whilst Major & Brown were in Downing Street.

    [Can we please NOT get into a BBC bias discussion – they are never edifying or non-partisan! – AW]

  27. Anthony it seems that if anything Labour’s average lead has increased very slightly since you last calculated it, but that’s just my impression. Has it in fact gone back up towards 6%?

  28. Barnaby – I need to update it, but yes, my guess is that we’ll be back to the 6 point lead that’s been the average for months.

  29. I wouldn’t update it just yet. Let’s check for sure that it goes up first :)

    Not in the interests of partisanship, Barnaby will understand. Just scientific validity.

  30. Can anyone tell me what the mood on the Tory back benches is, as these polls continue to show that rather lacklustre Labour front bench continues to be heading towards a healthy majority, whereas they seem doomed to yet more periods of opposition?

    It is now too late to ditch DC. What options are open to them?

  31. And seeing as how Wolf didn’t come back on his gnomic comment (c. 12.15 p.m.), can anyone else offer some wisdom?

  32. @Steve2

    “RPI is less reliable *because* it includes housing costs….such as mortgages….which are influenced by the bank rate….which is influenced by inflation….which include housing costs….Therefore a rise in interest rates will see a rise in RPI, and vv, and does not give a consistent calculation of the cost of living.”

    If a rise in interest rates (or the anticipation of a rise as currently) in itself makes it harder for people to get by in the short term because mortgages go up, then surely we need to take that into account when determining whether wage rises are keeping place with “inflation”. I can’t see the relevance of the circularity you cite.

    Technical criticisms can be made of RPI, as with CPI, but circularity shouldn’t be one of them.

  33. Mr Nameless,
    Apparently Clegg has said he doesn’t mind this being televised.I think this could actually be quite significant.Cameron has said that he will not take part as he is too busy running the country.EM has said nothing so far but if he decides to take part that will put enormous pressure on Cameron to do likewise.On the other hand both of the main party leaders may well refuse to
    Get dragged into a stunt dreamed up by Clegg on a phone in show.

  34. Having checked the figures , it would appear that in the month to December 2013 unemployment rose by 20,000 – ie from 2.32million to 2.34 million.

  35. @AW

    You’ve now got a chance to prove me wrong by updating it before your release my last post!

  36. Clegg could have scored one heck of an own goal if the consequence of his challenge to Farage to debate with him is that he opens the door for a Cameron-Miliband only election debate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10654723/Nick-Clegg-could-be-cut-out-of-2015-general-election-debates.html

  37. Hi Zack, the average is more than a week & a half old & it’s due for updating. And that too is not for partisan reasons – it’s good for us to know, whatever our views. what the true picture is.
    For the benefit of other contributors, Zack & I are related.

  38. “Clegg could have scored one heck of an own goal if the consequence of his challenge to Farage to debate with him is that he opens the door for a Cameron-Miliband only election debate.”

    If they did that I don’t believe that the debates could be broadcast as they’d would fall foul of the requirement for fair coverage of the major parties (defined as Tory, Labour and LibDems in the UK) during an election campaign.

  39. Sorry, should have been ‘defined as Tory, Labour and LibDems in England’.

    Incidentally, would they be allowed to broadcast a Clegg v Farage debate during the Euro campaign without including Cameron and Miliband?

  40. “In an otherwise remarkably tranquil period of polling, over a prolonged time, there have been only two real game-changers this Parliament; the LibDem diaspora in 2010 and Osborne’s omni-shambles budget in March 2012. Those two seismic events have essentially shaped all the polls we’ve seen ever since.”

    I wrote this on the previous thread and, thinking about it a little more, I suppose the rise of UKIP is another significant development that has changed the polls, albeit in a more sub-seismic way.

    It’s difficult to trace the point in this Parliament when they broke through but looking back through the archive of polls it would appear that October/November 2012 was when they got on a bit of a roll and started to consistently poll in double figures.

    Can anybody remember what might have happened back then to cause this?

  41. @Crossbat11

    DC’s referendum pledge? I

  42. Crossbat- you’re absolutely right to suggest there have only really been two key events which have affected polling this parliament in the long term. the formation of the coalition is the most important, where Labour got to about 37% in four months and haven’t really looked back since then. The Tories were level pegging until March 2012, when the budget did for them. [the other minor event which bumped the tories 2 points or so was the Cameron veto in December 2011]

    UKIP started its rise after omnishambles. Many on the Right, who have always liked the “smack of firm government” in the Daily Telegraph’s old 1955 phrase, simply thought of the government as incompetent. The U turns and the perception that cameron and osborne were rich college kids who had never done a proper day’s work in their lives started the UKIP ball rolling among C1s and older right wing men, many of whom are frankly very authoritarian and were staunch supporters of Thatcher etc. in the 80s.

    In a more deferential age, they would have stuck with the Conservatives. For now, they are going with UKIP, it remains to be seen whether they come back to the Tories.

    UKIP rose again specifically at the end of 2012. My own view is that the gay marriage legislation drove some Tories to UKIP. Between November and December there was a noted spike. even though the same sex marriage bill was voted in February at 2nd reading, it had been an issue for two or three months…

    In a spreadsheet of polling averages I have seen, the tories dipped 2% from 32.5 to 30.7%, while UKIP jumped from 8.4% to 10.7% between November and December 2012; quite a jump in a month…you should check polling averages from september 2012 to February 2013 to confirm this.

  43. Phil Haines,
    I am not sure at all about this Clegg own goal thing.He has nothing to lose.
    Could he be a very skilled whist player?

  44. The referendum pledge was Jan 12 so in response to the rise not the cause of it.

  45. @Peter Crawford

    “In a spreadsheet of polling averages I have seen, the tories dipped 2% from 32.5 to 30.7%, while UKIP jumped from 8.4% to 10.7% between November and December 2012; quite a jump in a month…you should check polling averages from september 2012 to February 2013 to confirm this”

    And the split in the Tory party on an in/out referendum was on 24th October. Cam then U-turned on this, but not on gay marriage, so I make my own conclusions as to where he thought he had to go to head off UKIP. I also think UKIP’s prime appeal is as an anti-EU party rather than general social conservative matters – the clue perhaps is in the name.

  46. In the YouGov tables today, the usual partisan replies are given to questions, but I found the UKIP voter response to
    “The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind of society I want”

    as attributed 25% Conservatives, 10% Labour, 2% LD, 56% none of them, 7% DK

    – is perhaps a useful indication of what could be a reverting vote at a General Election. So on a VI of 13%, roughly 3-4% (of all voters) could go from UKIP back to Con, 1-2% to Lab, negligible to LD, and 6-7 percent will stick with UKIP. We have to guess what the 1% DKs will do (probably not vote after all).

    Sound reasonable?

  47. With Clegg debating Farage how can Cameron continue to dodge Salmond in Scotland

    Makes PMs position weaker. One wonders if there was any consultation before DPM placed PM on the hook?

  48. Submitting my last post ‘result’ to the swingometer gives a Lab overall majority of 34.

    (using Con 37 (+3), Lab 40 (+1), LD 9 (nc), UKIP 8 (-4).).

  49. L Hamilton
    I cannot follow your reasoning at all. What has Clegg vs Farage got to do with Salmond vs Cameron? The debatable issues are not related. One is EU and the other is something I do not discuss here.

  50. AW
    Linking to what I thought were the Populus tables in your piece above, l got YouGov again (in other words the same link). Perhaps you may wish to correct this?

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