YouGov Welsh poll

ITV Wales has a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions out today, summarised by Roger Scully here. The various different VIs, with changes from December’s poll, are as follows:

Westminster VI: CON 22%(+1), LAB 47%(+1), LD 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-1), UKIP 9%(-1)
Welsh Assembly (Const): CON 21%(+2), LAB 42%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 19%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2)
Welsh Assembly (Reg): CON 19%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 17%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc)
European: CON 17%(-3), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 12%(-1), UKIP 18%(+5)

Roger calculates that if repeated at a Welsh Assembly election Labour would retain 30 seats, so still the tinest whisper short of an overall majority, and UKIP would enter the Assembly for the first time with 5 seats. If the European election intentions were repeated in May Labour would return two MEPs, the Conservatives and UKIP one each, meaning Plaid would lose out.


440 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. TONY DEAN

    Thank you for that masterful analysis.

    I don’t know the detailed history as you so clearly do, and it is in your last sentence that I find what I was looking for :-

    “Many of us, I suspect, will become libertarian socialist entryists in the Labour movement.”

    But that simply begs another question for me-why did you ever bother with a separate “Labour Party” called the Liberal Democrats?

    Forgive me if the finer points of your political philosophy & history have escaped me-obviously there was something about Labour which was not quite pukka-but permanent opposition seems a big price to pay assuming you are serious about implementing policy rather than just talking about it.

    Thanks again.

  2. Tony-the other question you bring to mind is that old chestnut:-

    Who owns the Party-Activists , MPs ….or Voters?

  3. @Bigfatron

    “Yes, I’m a big Cambridge United fan and have met Ron Atkinson a few times. ”

    Ah, I thought there had to be a link, but I hadn’t bargained on it being Cambridge United! He managed them in the 70s didn’t he, not long after they became a Football League team, and with some success, if I remember rightly?

    I went to Cambridge United’s old Abbey Stadium ground in September 1980, the season Villa won the League Championship. It was a League Cup game and you beat us, 2-1, I think. As I trudged disconsolately away from the ground that evening if anybody had told me then that 8 months later we’d be crowned League Champions, I’d have thought them stark staring mad!

    @Tony Dean

    A great post and the the power of what you say lies in the fact that you are living and breathing, and sharing, the motivations, emotions and experiences that a lot of us on here merely speculate about and pretend to know. Thank you very much for doing so, by the way.

  4. @ Tony Dean,

    You cannot, by definition, help to realign the Left of a nation’s politics by coalescing with the principal national party of the Right.

    Can’t you? Isn’t that precisely what Clegg has done?

    The only nationally electable party of the Left is the Labour Party, and he’s just pushed a bunch of you libertarian socialist entryist types into it. Surely that will have some influence on its character, and by extension the character of the Left as a whole.

    Perhaps it’s not quite the realignment Jo Grimond was hoping for all those years ago, but it’s probably a more effective mechanism for getting liberal policies passed than his plan of refurbishing the Liberal Party.

  5. @CrossbatXI

    You’re thinking of Oxford United, who Ron Atkinson played for from 1962 (when the were elected to the Football League at the expense of Accrington Stanley) to 1971 or thereabouts.

  6. Thanks to Tony from me too.

    I suppose in a way I am also a libertarian socialist entryist though I never really could see the point of the Liberals and have been Lab aligned most of my life but usually not a member (especially in the New Lab era).

    I had to look up Libertarian Socialism in Wikipedia and I guess I would be on the authoritarian wing of LS: first time in my life I’ve described myself as authoritarian :p

    I’m hoping EM is steering Lab into a less corporatist view of the world: that would appeal to many of my acquaintance and I think the wider electorate.

  7. EWEN LIGHTFOOT,

    Haven’t played Diplomacy in years but bought my son a copy a year or so back. Unfortunately he is part of the Console generation and doesn’t have the patience for it.

    Have you ever won as Italy?

    Peter.

  8. Anthony
    Thanks for the post of 8:04

  9. Colin – the simplest answer I can give to your question is all three!

  10. Better news from Ukraine.

    Was looking really worrying but it could be back from the brink.

    Wonder if US/EU pressure has had an effect.

  11. @ Crossbat11

    Didn’t know you were a Villa fan, you might be able to work out who I support. McHugh scored his first goal last night since the League Cup semi-finals. A win at last!

  12. @Peter Cairns (SNP)

    Try Introversion’s ‘Defcon’ (free demo). Very tense, in a WarGames movie sense.

    @Anyone

    Shocked that Alba is being modded. rUKPR indeed.

  13. Sun has not tweeted tomorrow’s poll…yet.

  14. @Crossbat11
    Spot on – we went from non-league to what is now the Championship in 8 years, for three of which we had Big Ron in charge. I was at the Abbey Stadium on that same evening, but left the ground with emotions diametrically opposite to yours!
    I always had a soft spot for Villa, so was delighted that they went onto win the League, and that Big Ron when ton to manage them with some success.

    @RAF
    Ron Atkinson was captain of Oxford and played for them for many years, but managed Kettering, Cambridge, WBA, Man Utd, Aston Villa & Coventry (and possibly Sheffield Wednesday, though I may have that wrong!)

    I will now shut up about football…

  15. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead drops to four points: CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%

  16. Fluctuation around the mean, it seems. Con, Lib and UKIP score haven’t shifted.

  17. Peter C.

    Nope I’ve never won outright as ltaly, although I’ve had a few two ways with Austria and one with Turkey. Come to that , I’ve never won outright with Austria, but I love playing the land of chocolate cake and Sado-masochism.

    If you fancy a game it’s free at the playdip.com site, loads of friendly anoraks from across the globe !

  18. Anglicans, Methodists and other denominations have spoken this evening.

  19. “Anglicans, Methodists and other denominations have spoken this evening.”

    ….and ???

  20. @Bantams

    “you might be able to work out who I support”

    Your user name is a bit of a give-away, and I had noticed that Bradford City recorded a rare win last night! After last year’s League Cup semi-final (triumph for your lot and debacle for Villa) I suspect you wish you could play us every week, don’t you??

    As for tonight’s YouGov, another example of how the size of the Labour lead seems to be primarily determined by what proportion of Labour’s VI in any one poll dissolves into Don’t Know or Won’t Vote. If it falls by 3%, as it has done tonight, there’s no evidence that the lost support ever really goes to other parties. The rule of thumb seems to be that if Labour score 39/40 then you’re looking at a 7-8% lead but if it dips to 37-38%, then you’re looking at a 4-5% lead. Elsewhere, all seems to be pretty static and becalmed.

    I’m no great student of ancient polling, but something tells me that these polls, especially at this stage in a Parliament, are rather strange and unusual in a curiously inert and non-volatile sort of way.

  21. Quick look in before bed, and thanks from me also to Tony Dean – an eye opener for all of us, well, me and the others who appreciated it, on the Libs and Lib Dems. (Well, I think we all knew where the Dems were coming from, but the Lib bit was fascinating!).

    Polls for Labour good this week, I’d say. Never did believe the 40’s. They may or may not end up voting Labour, but they’re not (in my thinking anyway) part of the solid band who have rejected the neo-liberal right (outright!)

  22. @Tony Dean

    Thanks for that. It’s virtually what I’d have said myself if asked.

    The only difference is that I won’t be a Labour entryist, because I believe Labour will remain a centralising and authoritarian party for the forseeable future. However, like you, I think the LDs have lost me forever (having voted for them, or their predeccesor, in every election but two since Feb 74).

    I will happily vote labour however, if a green isn’t standing here. Not that it matters either way in this rock solid tory Sussex stronghold.

  23. I think that David Bowie has just invited all the members of Plaid Gwener to stay at his place in NY for a party.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26267726

  24. @BIGFATRON

    Interesting. Perhaps I’m too young. My earliest memories of Cambridge United cone from the John Beck “long ball” era.

    Back to politics. I voted LD in 2010, in fact in 2005 and 2010. My condition on voting LD again is the defenestration of Clegg, Laws and Alexander and the party pulling out of the Coalition.

  25. Cheers Tony Dean, some very interesting stuff there. I did have the thought earlier that whatever harm Clegg has done to the Liberals, in retrospect it might not have been much better for them if Chris Huhne won the leadership.

  26. @OldNat

    Did you hear what Billy Connelly had to say to The Scotsman on the Independence vote? Quite interesting I thought.

  27. Not sure if anyone has reported on the Markit household finance data yet. Figures are interesting.

    It’s being reported as positive news, but that needs some caution. The measure of finances for the coming 12 months is indeed positive, at 50.7 (above 50 is meant to equate to improvement) but actual current finances are marginally up on the month, but still at 42.1, meaning people still think they are getting worse off.

    Debt levels have stabilised, and the savings measure improved, but both are sub 50, suggesting these are still deteriorating, but more slowly. Workplace activity is above 50, but actually showed a sharp fall on the month. Job security is up, but still sub 50, but interesting, security in the retail sector is lagging behind manufacturing and construction.

    The survey paints a continuing picture of struggling households, against a backdrop of a general improvement.

    As with todays figures showing an improving employment figure overall, but with employment not keeping pace with workforce growth, and a decline in hours worked overall, the signals remain mixed. It’s quite notable that Osborne himself is now saying that the recovery is too reliant on consumers and the city. It’s his recovery, apparently, and some of us were saying way back when, that his policy measures were not directed at the right targets.

    Either he thinks things are still shaky, and he wants to avoid raised expectations, or he is worried that hard pressed householders might start to think that ‘money is no object’, as they say.

  28. RAF

    If I had, I could only comment on it in Welsh on this thread.

  29. @OldNat

    You take the rules too literally.

  30. RAF

    As Ronnie Corbett said in that famous sketch – “I know my place”. :-)

  31. Looks like there’s a poll of residents in Alba tomorrow on the Macbethian question.

    If Anthony doesn’t provide a thread, maybe someone could post the link in Servant’s Hall, so that it can be discussed.

  32. Discussion on Newsnight of whether 5-year fixed terms are good for democracy. Douglas Carswell and Bernard Jenkin against and Gus O’Donnell for. Is it significant that it was politicians on one side and a civil servant on the other?

  33. h1The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out
    Thursday, February 20th, 2014
    And it’s great news for the Supporters of Yes as No’s lead slumps from 20% to 9% with Survation.

    AS REPORTED ON POLITICAL BETTING.

    TIME TO GET ON?

  34. Alexander Anderson

    For shame! Posting Albanic details in the Palace Dining Room is the mark of a cad.

    Especially since they make links posted by the gentry seem rather foolish.

  35. Polls ain’t votes on the future they’re …… well, they’re just polls.

    I’ve already told you the result – 60-40 to stay with the big boys and girls.

  36. Looks like there are actually 3 Macbethian polls out (though TNS is pre Osborne statement).

    As R&D wisely point out, on a polling site, polls are no guide to the future.

  37. Strange times . All the negativity and fear possible has dominated Westminster’s campaign , then they are reduced to dragging Osborne , Cameron and Brown into it , yet it gets them nowhere .

    Given Osborne’s colonial descendants , Pearse’s famous oration ” The fools , the fools ….. ” springs to mind , albeit in a different context .

    Even Portillo warned about the grandees disastrous intervention !

  38. CG

    How are some politicians “grandees” and others not?

    How does it work?

    Does it depend on how much you dislike them or is there an objective test that some – Salmond maybe – sadly fail?

    I really thought the “Never plays the ball if there’s a man available” description was most apposite.

  39. Can’t help but LOL at these polls!

    Scotland; the rebellious teenager of the family.

    “Don’t tell me what to do! You’re not my real parents!”

  40. “Don’t tell me what to do! You’re not my real parents!”

    But, of course, we are – and must be tolerant.

  41. I have just been tweeted to say that party political numbers on the Mail/Survation poll are pretty sensational for the SNP at BOTH HOLYROOD AND WESTMINSTER.

    Any info anyone?

    Could it be that Osborne tempted Balls into his web to destroy the Labour Party in Scotland?

  42. I’ve just realised that Wales and Scotland are different [Wales are the ones that can play rugger] so this is NOT the thread to discuss Jockstrapular affairs.

  43. There are probably few uncommitted lurkers who read the posts on a technical polling site like this.

    Which is a shame.

    Posts such as these by R&D and STEVE2 really deserve much wider coverage.

  44. @alexander anderson

    With no change in the DKs either!

    Churn or direct No to Yes?

  45. Thankyou olenat.

    Some of yours are almost worth a look too – you shouldn’t be so modest. The one about Bowie that started it was a cracker for example.

  46. Has the word Scotland been taken out of mod?

  47. Depends who you are !

  48. testing ‘Scottish’

  49. Both Cameron and Osborne’s interventions did make me wonder whether they secretly support the ‘yes’ campaign. After all, there aren’t any votes for them in Scotland.

    Wonder what the Queen thinks? Balmoral might just become ….abroad. Are the SNP republicans? One would imagine so. Certainly, my Scottish friends don’t have much time for the landed gentry, especially the ones from tenant farmer backgrounds.

  50. Chatterclass

    Canada is “abroad”. Australia is “abroad”. New Zealand is “abroad”. Since the Isle of Man isn’t part of the UK, arguably Roger Mexico is “abroad”.

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