YouGov Welsh poll

ITV Wales has a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions out today, summarised by Roger Scully here. The various different VIs, with changes from December’s poll, are as follows:

Westminster VI: CON 22%(+1), LAB 47%(+1), LD 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-1), UKIP 9%(-1)
Welsh Assembly (Const): CON 21%(+2), LAB 42%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 19%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2)
Welsh Assembly (Reg): CON 19%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 17%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc)
European: CON 17%(-3), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 12%(-1), UKIP 18%(+5)

Roger calculates that if repeated at a Welsh Assembly election Labour would retain 30 seats, so still the tinest whisper short of an overall majority, and UKIP would enter the Assembly for the first time with 5 seats. If the European election intentions were repeated in May Labour would return two MEPs, the Conservatives and UKIP one each, meaning Plaid would lose out.


440 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. @ Mr Nameless (3.19)

    “In any case, the Labour Party’s current ideology is essentially social democracy with a trade union link attached!”

    It is the trade union link and the lack of emphasis on democracy that makes me reluctant to vote Lab. As was mentioned earlier on this thread (BFR 12.15), there is a vacuum. Oh for PR and a wider range of parties.

  2. Re: Ukraine/flooding jokes, let this article serve as an excellent guide: http://www.cracked.com/blog/4-jokes-no-one-should-tell-for-good-reason/

  3. @Bigfatron

    Any Ron Atkinson references implied in your user name? I’ve often wondered.

    When he was the Villa Manager in the early 90s, Big Fat Ron was our affectionate nickname for him. In fact one of our favourite chants at the time, whenever he’d banished our flying winger Tony Daley on to the bench, and things weren’t going well, was “Big Fat Ron bring Tony Daley on!” Sung, if that’s the right word, to the tune of “You’re so **** it’s unbelievable”, it had quite a nice ring to it.

  4. @MrNameless

    I thought the only important criterion about jokes was whether they were funny or not.

  5. Well yes. But humour doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and telling a joke in the right context helps!

  6. I’m going to try to get into all this abbreviations stuff here. Just looking at today’s news it would appear that RB wasn’t only digging DC with all this LOL business. TB got in on the act too by advising RB, JM and RM ahead of the hacking trial.

    And there was me thinking that TB was only interested in Mrs RM.

    lol, as they say.

  7. Any referendum polls?

  8. But who shot JR?

  9. @Mr Nameless

    “Re: Ukraine/flooding jokes,”

    Alec made a bit of a poor joke about Kiev and chickens but, in fairness to him, his puns and jokes are usually very funny and witty.

    We shouldn’t give him too hard a time for one he might have got a bit wrong. I probably struck a few false notes with some references to the floods, but I don’t think anyone was making fun out of the victims. I certainly wasn’t and it probably doesn’t pay to get too holier than thou with any of this.

  10. I seem to have upset a few people with my attempted humour. If so, please accept my apologies.

    In my defence, I hadn’t watched the news in detail yesterday, and was, at the time, entirely unaware that there had been deaths. These are clearly not funny events.

    Against that, I would not wish to see a wider campaign about what we should tell jokes about or not.

    For example, a recent international survey found that Scotland’s favourite joke was the one about a man telling his friends that he would like to die like his grandfather – quietly and peacefully in his sleep.

    However, he would not, he said, like to die like his grandfather’s passengers.

    Approximately 5 people a day die on UK roads, with around 25,000 serious injuries a year. However, I would contend that this doesn’t negate the humour in the joke.

    My Kiev joke failed the taste test (did you see what I did there?) but I feel it also failed the humour test. It was, as they say, like a [email protected] in a lift – wrong on so many levels.

    So please accept my apologies, and if it helps people relax, we can all ponder on the fact that by Monday next week, more people will have been killed in UK road accidents that on the streets of Kiev.

  11. “It would be interesting to get thev views of LD supporters-particularly the defectors to Labou since 2010-on which destination they would favour.”

    I’d quite like Bexhill please.

  12. Sadly it’s looking to me like Ukraine may need to be partitioned. There are two Ukraines – Ukrainian Ukraine and Russian Ukraine. I don’t see there being an accommodation between them. It’s a little Northern Ireland-like I think.

    What passes for democracy is in reality a more or less even electoral split between East and West. The West won’t accept Yanukovich and Putin. The East (and especially the Crimea) won’t accept the Orange Revolution and the EU.

  13. @CROSSBAT11

    Thanks for the recommendation :)

  14. @Neil A – I don’t know anything about Ukraine, but is there any historical context for a split, or is this just the result of Russian immigration to one part of the country?

  15. @Mr Nameless

    To be fair to Dr Owen most politicians in the top rank are arrogant, he was also very, very, vain. But he was dead right about the Lib-SDP merger bringing an end to “Social Democracy” – though he may have been surprised at how long it took – i.e. until the accession of Nick Clegg.

  16. Peter Bell

    You may not like those pesky Unions, but historically they have ( just about ) kept the Labour Party sane and with a link to the real world of work.
    Remove the link with the Unions and the Labour Party would end up in one of three possibilities:-

    1. A far-left sectarian party ( eg. the SWP );
    2. A bunch of careerist, elitist “Drawing Room” liberals like the SDP or, even worse, New Labour;
    3. A far-right/neo fascist party like Oswald Mosley/UKIP.

  17. Mr Nameless

    SPOILER ALERT!!!!!

    Sue Ellen’s evil sister Kristen.

    Best to keep this discussion to the Dallas website than UK Polling!

  18. @Neil A
    Although, as with Northern Ireland (and for that matter British India) partition need not be the end of the story by a long way.

  19. One of the few Computer games I play is called Shockforce.

    It came out about eight years ago and simulates modern small unit warfare, but was criticised because people thought their chosen setting was unrealistic;

    It was a Nato intervention in a hypothetical Syrian Civil War.
    Something we came pretty close to last yea.

    They have been working over the last few years on a sequel;

    A Russian intervention in a Ukrainian Civil War.
    Which might not be too far fetched!

    If the plan a game set in Britain I am going to Emigrate!!!

    Peter.

  20. Colin
    Sorry if I spooked you yesterday with my linking of Eugenics to the Neanderthals , I was not up to any devious attempt to put you into an unacceptable r*cist corner. BTW there was an excellent article recently on the latest research from the Max Planck lnstitute in The Grauniad.

  21. @Peter Cairns,

    In my Official Capacity as an Actual Games Journalist (Inevitable plug for my work is here: http://www.cubedgamers.com/home/) that game looks rubbish. If you like it though you may also enjoy Full Spectrum Warrior.

  22. “Those who can’t put their own houses to rights will be always supported, but those who can do it themselves have the responsibility to do so.”

    That seems like rather moralistic language to use about the disabled and the ill- I have difficulty seeing disability as a failure to “put your house to rights”. But then I suppose it would explain why the Government seems so sanguine about the huge rise in abuse and hate speech disability charities are reporting.

  23. Nameless,

    It doesn’t look great I’ll admit, but if you want to know how modern warfare actually works as opposed to Holywood Movies it is about as good as it gets.

    Most games start with the graphics and fake the weapons effects to look good. This one starts with accuracy and then adds graphics.

    Peter.

  24. @ Colin

    You are perfectly correct in saying that our political instincts are very different. However, that hasn’t prevented us sharing the same views on many issues – PFI for example and the environment for another.

    My assessment of Conservatism is not as broad-brushed or as sectarian as you seem to suggest. In fact, I would argue that the leadership of nearly all the mainstream political parties (including the SNP but not PC and the Greens) do not represent their grassroots memberships .. and have far more in common with each other. This was certainly true of Tony Blair and I hope is much less true of Ed Miliband.

    IMO the democratic process is truly debilitated. I would no more describe Cameron/Osborne/Maude etc as Conservatives than I would Tony Blair/Mandelson as socialists. Politics has been turned into PR and what is said bears small relation to what is done. You and I can have an honest debate but you would agree that it is naive to accept any statement from our leaders without looking for the ‘angle’.

    One of the reasons that I keep coming back to UKPR is because I find it helpful in understanding how someone like yourself (an honest broker and very kindly) can go along with many of the policies of the coalition which do not seem to me to represent Conservative values. The EU-US Free Trade Agreement (TTIP/TAFTA) is a case in point. This treaty will supersede UK sovereignty, imposing a Corporate Tribunal with the authority to require changes to UK employment and environmental legislation. The objections of backbench and grassroots Tories to the EU should be 10x greater in opposing ‘NAFTA-on-steroids’ but it is a major plank in Coalition government plans for the UK.

  25. @Paul A (5.35)

    While some sort of link to the unions would be acceptable, imo. they currently have far too much influence.

    Your option 2 would be my preference. I would like the SDP to re-emerge and I never saw the SDP leadership as careerist or elitist (with the exception of David Owen). Or at least no more so than any politician.

  26. EWEN

    Thanks.

    No worries.

  27. Sue

    Your response much appreciated.

    I recall your deep unease about international Free Trade from previous conversations.

    I guess I won’t comment further on the points you raise-except to say that your idea of what Conservatism means probably differs from mine………but then I am sure we would have similar trouble with “Socialism”

    Sue-its the intensity of dislike-sometimes bordering on hatred which I fail utterly to understand. I think it is unpleasant -and dangerous & I know you are not in that space.

    Enough of this-I feel sure you will, be watching Michael Mosley tonight on BBC4. I think he is great & have followed his series-but tonight is just a step too far for me.

    That Stresipteran on Andrena flavipes was enough for me !!

  28. Wow, the land of Macbeth really does go into mod.

  29. Strepsipteran-sorry Sue.

    Dislexia + Amateurism !!!

  30. ““Those who can’t put their own houses to rights will be always supported, but those who can do it themselves have the responsibility to do so.”

    That seems like rather moralistic language to use about the disabled and the ill- I have difficulty seeing disability as a failure to “put your house to rights”. But then I suppose it would explain why the Government seems so sanguine about the huge rise in abuse and hate speech disability charities are reporting.”

    Hi Spearmint,

    Hope you didn’t think my, er, flippant post of yonks back was anti-disabled, or anti-the-unemployed. I was merely playing about with DC’s Telegraph article to see how it would read if he was speaking about flood-affected householders in the same vein as he spoke about the unemployed and disabled. I should probably have made my thoughts an internal dialogue only………

  31. ‘ Chris

    “Any referendum polls?”

    Better still any referendum jokes?

  32. “The EU-US Free Trade Agreement (TTIP/TAFTA) is a case in point. This treaty will supersede UK sovereignty, imposing a Corporate Tribunal with the authority to require changes to UK employment and environmental legislation. The objections of backbench and grassroots Tories to the EU should be 10x greater in opposing ‘NAFTA-on-steroids’ but it is a major plank in Coalition government plans for the UK.”

    Hi Syzygy,

    Do we know a Labour position on this?

  33. Mr N, PC (SNP)

    If you want a real war game on line try ‘Diplomacy’, it’s very addictive and each game lasts for around six weeks on average. I limit myself to two or three games a year, cos otherwise l start preferring being Bismarck or Napoleon.

  34. @ Colin

    Thanks – I just love men who can talk entomology and parasitology :)

  35. Roger Mexico

    Thanks for the link to the tables, and your comments thereon.

  36. Very graciously put
    Alec.

  37. @ Colin Davis

    I know that Andy Burnham was going to lobby Brussels about keeping the NHS outside the scope of the treaty and that he is worried about TTIP. However, all but the usual suspects have been very silent.

    According to the ToUChstone blog, the TUC will be stepping up its campaign against a number of aspects. They are liaising with the US equivalent.

    However, resistance is much more vocal across Europe and surprisingly the US. It looks as if Congress will not support any attempt to fast track either TTIP or TPP. Oh and Labour MEPs are opposing the corporate tribunal. However as the negotiations are all done behind closed doors it is difficult to argue against adequately .. we rely on leaked documents.

  38. Somebody loves me.

  39. Thanks, Syzygy.

    I’ve been one of the sleepwalkers there, I confess. Looks like we should all know more – and quickly. Maybe the silent ones you talk of are ignorant too. The key question (for me) I guess, is what’s the agenda of those who want this?

  40. @Colin Davis

    The freedom of the market is not compatible with a democratic process. [snip] Its a last ditch attempt to impose the Washington consensus on two thirds of the world’s markets – anyone but China it seems.

  41. @Alec.

    My knowledge of medieval Russian history is a lot better than my more recent knowledge. It’s a bit complicated. What is now Ukraine was essentially the cradle of the original Russia (you may have heard reference to the “Kievan Rus”). So Ukraine has always been “a bit Russian”.

    As with so many problems, it’s largely a product of Imperialism. The territory of Ukraine has at various times been incorporated into the holdings of Russia, Poland, Lithuania, etc. There was some physical colonization, but mostly it was just cultural dominance. The bits that used to be Russian tend to speak Russian and be Orthodox. The bits that used to be Polish tend to speak Ukrainian and have large Catholic minorities.

    Crimea is a slightly separate case, as it is basically part of Russia – having been more or less a military zone during Soviet times. It was only transferred back to Ukraine late on in the Soviet era.

    I think the almost genocidal policies of Stalin in Ukraine have probably poisoned the well so far as Ukrainian-speaking, Western-looking nationalists are concerned.

  42. @COLIN re China

    Thanks for that response – thought provoking. I confess that, whilst I was aware there were some issues of – shall we say – imbalance in the Chinese miracle I hadn’t given them a lot of thought.

    Taking your balance sheet model forward a little, the assets are a mixture of external investments in (we all hope) relatively stable and tradeable assets and internal investments in infrastructure and other assets which may be quite dodgy.

    So my next difficulty is understanding what is on the liability side of the balance sheet and therefore the implications if the assets become significantly impaired. I presume there might be some borrowings in the form of bonds perhaps and savings accounts (predominantly I would have thought within China) but my supposition is the majority of liabilities are around ‘obligations’ to provide benefits and public services. Is that about right, or am I way off?

  43. ““The EU-US Free Trade Agreement (TTIP/TAFTA) is a case in point. This treaty will supersede UK sovereignty…”

    Not sure I had heard of this, or certainly it was nowhere near the front of my mind.

    It should be a good test of what the opponents of British membership of the EU really stand for.

    Are they romantic idealists who somehow want to stand outside all blocs?

    People who really want us to be closer to the US and its economic system, but do not make this clear?

    (I assume that the previous generation of Cons opponents who wanted to turn the Commonwealth into an economic bloc have largely disappeared.)

    There are also left-wing opponents of the EU, on the grounds that it is a capitalist club. This was an important strand of the Labour Party at one time.

    All very interesting, but my guess is that the effect on the opinion polls, or the real one in 2015, is likely to be virtually nil.

    It might be informative to hear what UKIP have to say about all this. I wonder if Nigel Farage is a regular reader of UKPR?

  44. @ Colin Davis,

    Hope you didn’t think my, er, flippant post of yonks back was anti-disabled, or anti-the-unemployed

    Not at all! I assumed it was a direct quote from Cameron that I hadn’t seen before, and was a little startled by the implications. Entirely my own fault for skimming and not noticing it was an ironic paraphrase- and my apologies to the Prime Minister, whom I have falsely maligned in this instance.

  45. GUYMONDE.

    On the Assets front I would like to have heard from Peston:-

    1) How do they compare with the perceived domestic banking impairment .
    2) How liquid they are-including the effect on global economies of a Chinese sell off of any magnitude.

    Re the Banking crisis-as I understand it the Chinese State expanded Credit supply to fund a massive expansion in manufacturing. for the export market. You saw Peston at that steel making plant which now has an overcapacity & over employment problem-which is not being addressed.
    Now we seem to have a “second wave” of lending which is going into the huge real estate & construction boom which Pesto showed. Here again we seem to have oversupply & over employment.

    So the Chinese Banks have all this funding on their books, just when China is trying to refocus from 8 to 9 % pa GDP growth based on Manufacturing, to maybe half that rate based on Domestic Consumption.

    To the extent that Monetary Policy & the Money Supply is involved-my little brain seizes up-but at the simple level of finance & accounting-if all the assets invested abroad gave rise to losses at home-I assume the two will need to be brought together.

    But if this is all has some magic Monetary Solution-I’m afraid I can’t help !

  46. colin

    “Sue-its the intensity of dislike-sometimes bordering on hatred which I fail utterly to understand. I think it is unpleasant -and dangerous & I know you are not in that space.”

    Where is that “space”?? There is nothing like it here.

  47. “I wonder if Nigel Farage is a regular reader of UKPR?”

    I don’t believe so. I’ve met him and people normally mention it to me when they do!

  48. @Crossbat11

    Yes, I’m a big Cambridge United fan and have met Ron Atkinson a few times. A lovely man, if somewhat behind times in understanding what is and is not acceptable to say – however there is no malice in the man, and highly entertaining to talk to.

  49. @ Colin and others….

    “It would be interesting to get thev views of LD supporters-particularly the defectors to Labou since 2010-on which destination they would favour.”

    The problem with the pre-2010 LDs and indeed the pre-merger Liberals since the Grimond “repositioning” in the early 1960s is that the party became defined as a wide-ranging party across the left spectrum from virtually dead-centre to far left.

    The prerequisite for acceptance in the party was “liberalism” in holding an anti-authoritarian outlook without clearly defining the extent of how left wing one was on economics.

    My experience in the party from 1974 to 1989 was that the parliamentary party was pretty evenly divided between what we now call Orange-Bookers and Social Liberals, in this they reflected the Liberal voting electors – however, the bulk of the activists were most certainly on the Left – indeed many were on the far Left, co-operating with far Left fringe parties/campaigners on a number of issues like anti-racism and housing and defence issues.

    To even think of equating the Liberal Party I knew in the 70s and 80s with 19th century concepts of laissez faire economic liberalism would have been utterly bizarre.

    The handful of Gladstonian purists, some of whom were still about, (like Roger Pincham, Liberal candidate who almost won Leominster in ’74) had nevertheless been totally marginalized by Grimond’s healthy “shove to the left” after he re-positioned the party between the 59 and 64 elections with a long term aim of a “Re-alignment of the Left in British politics.”

    As I have argued a number of times before that even contemplating a coalition with the Conservatives (whatever the circumstances, except perhaps a World War!) was a betrayal of 4 decades of effort by many tens of thousands of activists, most of whom ranged between soft left and hard left, was a catastrophic longterm strategic mistake by the Clegg leadership cabal. You cannot, by definition, help to realign the Left of a nation’s politics by coalescing with the principal national party of the Right.

    I predict the LDs will hold onto more seats thatn we currently predict. However, these will be largely personal fiefdoms – however, as they retire their seats over time will be gradually lost. I fully expect a whittling away process that happened to sitting Liberals between 1923 and 1945. Without a clear mission, which Grimond gave the party, but Clegg has frittered away, they have no “position” within our political system that has wide enough appeal to win seats under FPTP. You cannot be an FDP type outfit in a FPTP system. And look what ultimately happened to the FDP even under PR!!!

    I, and I suspect many thousands like me, will NEVER return. Many of us, I suspect, will become libertarian socialist entryists in the Labour movement.

  50. TONY DEAN.
    I have missed your comments.
    Many thanks for such a great analysis.

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